The Southern African Development Community (SADC) aims to have a regional central bank by 2016 and a common currency by 2018. The member states are at the early stages of the process of regional economic integration, having launched a free trade area in 2008. Monetary integration is an advanced stage of regional economic integration that requires progressive changes in the participating countries. The purpose of this study is to determine the feasibility of monetary integration within the SADC countries and hence, provide policy recommendations to guide the integration process. To accomplish this, the study analyses the extent to which the member states meet the criteria for an optimum currency area (OCA) as well as the degree to which their economies are converging. The study finds that the main macroeconomic objectives of SADC countries differ due to a difference in the relative importance of monetary policy instruments in member states, which influences each country’s commitment towards achieving the macroeconomic convergence targets and harmonising policies. A more appropriate approach to macroeconomic convergence would be to allow for variable speed, geometry and depth in each country as premature adherence to convergence targets could prevent a harmonisation of the economies in the future and possibly destabilise the union. In addition, the study investigates the importance and similarities of the monetary aggregate channel, the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel and the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy using VAR analysis. This is important when considering monetary integration because differences in transmission mechanisms can result in asymmetric behaviour between member states, which in turn will prevent harmonisation of their economies. The results of the analysis suggest that SADC member states display asymmetries in their responses to monetary policy shocks as well as the relative importance of transmission mechanisms. In addition, the results suggest that national monetary policy is generally inefficient in determining economic performance in the member states. Furthermore, the study finds that the failure to meet the OCA criteria implies that the SADC member states will respond asymmetrically to shocks within a monetary union. With no effective alternative adjustment mechanisms in place, the effects of the shocks will endure in union members and possibly widen existing cyclical variation. Hence, monetary integration would not result in harmonisation of the economies of member states. It is therefore, concluded that the SADC countries were not suitable for monetary integration at present.

Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The endogenous money theory states that the money supply responds endogenously to the demand for credit. The money supply is not exogenously determined by the central bank. The endogenous theory is associated with the Post Keynesian school. It has been tested extensively for developed countries, where it was found that the modern credit-driven world is characterised by an endogenous money supply. The contribution of the present study is to extend this analysis to developing countries, specifically twelve countries in the SADC region. To examine the applicability of the endogenous money theory to developing countries, the thesis begins with an overview of the views of the different schools of thought on the role of money. The areas of consensus and disagreement within the Post Keynesian school are discussed. The theoretical basis of the thesis is the ‘structuralist’ Post Keynesian view that money cannot be endogenous if the financial system in a country has not reached the final stages of development. The ‘structuralist’ hypothesis is tested for the SADC countries by examining the demand and supply of credit money in each country. It was found that households do not generally have full access to formal credit markets. Changes in the money supply are not determined by changes in private sector credit in many of the countries. The analysis was then extended to the institutional environment in each country. A financial institutional index was developed to facilitate comparison between the SADC countries. It was shown that South Africa is the only country in the SADC area that has a financial system that can be classified as ‘largely developed’. It is also the only country where changes in the supply of money are predominantly credit-driven. Post Keynesians maintain that the money supply is endogenous and interest rates are exogenous. Interest rate mark-ups and spreads are assumed stable over the business cycle. This notion is challenged by the ‘structuralist’ Post Keynesians. To test the theory of stable interest rate mark-ups and spreads, data for each individual country were examined. Neither interest rate spreads, nor interest rate mark-ups were found to be stable. Interest rate spreads are generally higher in developing countries than in developed countries. No clear pro- or counter-cyclical variation in spreads was found. Finally, an econometric model was developed and the links between financial development and growth were examined. By looking at 49 developed and developing countries, it was found that financial development is strongly linked to economic growth. Financial repression and high interest rate spreads cause growth to be depressed. Financial development and increased competition in the banking sector will lead to higher real economic growth rates. In an environment where the financial system has not reached the stage where money is endogenous, the lack of financial institutional development stifles economic growth. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die teorie van ‘n endogene geldvoorraad aanvaar dat die aanbod van geld endogeen reageerop die vraag na krediet. Die geldvoorraad word nie eksogeen bepaal deurdie sentrale bank nie. Die endogene gedvoorraad teorie word geassosieer met die Post Keynesiaanse skool. Dit is reeds getoets vir ontwikkelde lande, waar die bevinding was dat ‘n endogene geldvoorraad ‘n eienskap is van ‘n moderne kredietgedrewe wereld. Hierdie tesis maak ‘n bydrae deur die analise uit te brei na ontwikkelende lande, spesifiek twaalf lande in die SADC streek. Om die toepasbaarheid van die endogene geldvoorraad vir ontwikkelende lande te toets, begin die tesis met ‘n oorsig van die verskillende denkskole se sienings oor die rol van geld. Die areas waar Post Keynesiane ooreenstem en verskil word bespreek. Die teoretiese basis van die tesis is die ‘strukturalistiese’ Post Keynesiaanse siening dat die geldvoorraad nie endogeen kan wees indien die finansiele sisteem in ‘n land nog nie die finale ontwikkelingstadia bereik het nie. Hierdie hipotese van die ‘strukturaliste’ word getoets vir die SADC lande deur te kyk na die vraag na en aanbod van krediet in elke land. Daar is bevind dat huishoudings oor die algemeen nie volledige toegang het tot formele kredietmarkte nie. Veranderinge in die geldvoorraad word nie in al die lande veroorsaak deur veranderinge in privaat sektor kredietverlening nie. Hierdie analise word dan uitgebrei na die institusionele omgewing in elke land, ‘n Finansiele institusionele indeks is ontwikkel om vergelyking tussen die SADC lande moontlik te maak. Daar is bevind dat Suid Afrika die enigste land is met 'n finansiele sisteem wat geklassifiseer kan word as ‘grotendeels ontwikkeld’. Dit is ook die enigste land waardie geldvoorraad beduidend kredietgedrewe is. Post Keynesiane glo dat die geldvoorraad endogeen is en rentekoerse eksogeen. Rentekoersmarges word gesien as stabiel oor die konjunktuursiklus. Hierdie aanname word bevraagteken deur die ‘strukturalistiese’ Post Keynesiane. Die teorie van stabiele rentekoersmarges word getoets deur te kyk na data vir elke individuele land. Die bevinding is dat rentekoersmarges nie stabiel is nie. Marges is oor die algemeen hoer in ontwikkelende lande as in ontwikkelde lande. Daar is geen duidelike pro- of kontrasikliese variasies in rentekoersmarges gevind nie. Laastens is ‘n ekonometriese model ontwikkel om die skakels tussen finansiele ontwikkeling en groei te ondersoek. Deur te kyk na 49 ontwikkelde en onontwikkelde lande, is daar bevind dat finansiele ontwikkeling en groei ‘n sterk verband toon. Finansiele onderdrukking en hoe rentekoersmarges lei tot laer ekonomiese groei. Finansiele ontwikkeling en groter mededinging in die bank sektor sal lei tot hoer reele ekonomiese groeikoerse. In ‘n omgewing waar die finansiele sisteem nog nie die stadium bereik het waar geld endogeen is nie, sal die gebrek aan finansiele institusionele ontwikkeling ekonomiese groei benadeel.

Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.

In conformity with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire African continent, one of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is the formation of a monetary union with a single central bank. Towards this end certain macroeconomic convergence criteria, which are closely aligned with those used by the European Union (EU), have been set. While empirical research on whether or not SADC would benefit from the formation of a currency union has focused on the optimum currency area criteria, no reference to these criteria is made in the SADC programme. Instead, the SADC approach has been governed by a set of macroeconomic convergence criteria synonymous with those pursued by the European Monetary Union (EMU) prior to its formation. Doubts regarding the future of the EU have recently been raised as a result of debt crises in certain member states, implicitly raising questions about the adequacy of the convergence criteria that were adopted. Accordingly, this study considers the feasibility of establishing a currency union in the SADC region. The proposed convergence criteria are assessed against the theory of optimum currency areas as well as in terms of their adequacy in the light of recent EU experience. In addition, the paper provides a preliminary assessment of the fiscal sustainability of the SADC region by conducting Engle-Granger cointegration tests on the public debt and revenue series for the SADC countries under analysis. It was observed that SADC has made considerable progress towards meeting its macroeconomic convergence criteria in recent years. However, in light of the regions' heavy dependence on commodity exports coupled with recent price fluctuations in this regard, the sustainability of this progress is questioned. Furthermore, a review of the EMU experience to date highlights numerous flaws in its approach and the potential challenges the SADC region should consider in moving forward with its agenda. In essence, the study suggests that almost all the SADC member states are fiscally unprepared for monetary union formation and the recent EMU debt crisis has highlighted the importance of acquiring a state of fiscal sustainability prior to union formation. In addition, it is imperative that the SADC members continue to address issues of product diversification, intraregional trade and political unification, all of which should be governed by a centralised fiscal authoriry.