Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / South Africa is among a number of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework since 1990. This policy was adopted in the year 2000 in South Africa, and there have been a growing number of concerns about the effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. The main purpose of this study is to determine these effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. In this paper, the author used co-integration and error correction model to empirically examine the long-run and short-run dynamics of inflation targeting effects on economic growth. A final conclusion that inflation targeting does not have significant negative effects on economic growth is drawn from two interesting results. Firstly, there is an insignificant negative relationship between inflation targeting and economic growth. Secondly, the influence that inflation targeting has on the relationship between the lag of inflation and economic growth is also insignificant. These findings have important policy implications. Therefore, the critique that the SARB achieves relatively low inflation at the expense of low economic growth is a misconception. This led to the conclusion that the SARB should maintain its monetary policy framework of inflation targeting which has helped it to reduce inflation. Keywords: Inflation targeting, inflation, economic growth, error correction model, monetary policy.

This research was conducted to evaluate the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa as a strategy to maintain price stability. The research was based on the period prior to inflation targeting and the period of inflation targeting. The comparison was done to determine if the Reserve Bank was on the right track in adopting inflation targeting. The research was conducted to determine if there is any correlation between CPIX inflation and other factors affecting inflation. The factors investigated were: food inflation, transport inflation, housing inflation, exchange rate, Brent crude oil, money supply, and the current account deficit to the GDP. The correlation studies were conducted during the same period and when the factors were lagged up to eight quarters. The correlations were statistically tested at 5% significant level. The results show that the period of inflation targeting has a strong correlation compared to the period prior to inflation targeting, when compared during the same time period and lagged time period. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2006.

The effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and economic growth depend on the monetary policy tools that are implemented by the Central Bank. Monetary aggregates are one of the tools that have been used as indicators of economic activity and as intermediate targets to achieve these economic objectives. Until recently, monetary aggregates have been questioned and criticised on their usefulness in monetary policy. This has been attributed to the economic, financial and technological developments that have distorted the relationship between monetary aggregates and major macroeconomic variables. This study investigates the relevance of monetary aggregation by comparing the traditional simple sum and Divisia index monetary aggregates which was constructed for the first time for South Africa using the Tornquist-Theil method. The Polynomial Distributed Lag model is employed to compare the performance of these monetary aggregates using their relationship with inflation and manufacturing index. Furthermore, the aggregates are compared in terms of their controllability and information content. Overall, the study found a very strong relationship between inflation and all the monetary aggregates. However, more specifically the results suggested that the Divisia indices are superior to the simple sum in terms of predicting inflation. The evidence further suggests that the Divisia aggregates provide higher information about inflation than the simple sum aggregates. Regarding the controllability of the monetary aggregates, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities can hardly control the monetary aggregates using monetary base. Finally, the relationship between manufacturing index and all the monetary aggregates was very weak.

The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.

The study examines exchange rate volatility and inflation in South Africa over the period of 1987- 2012 using annual data. With the use of VAR, ADF unit root testing and Johansen for cointegration the study examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility and inflation in South Africa. The study also examines other variables, which are Money Supply, Trade Openness, Real Interest Rate and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), if they had an impact on inflation and had contributed significantly to inflation during the period under review. All macroeconomic variables were identified to have an impact on inflation in the long-run. Exchange rate volatility was identified as the main variable that had substantial impact on inflation rate. The study recommended the current system used by the authorities was working well, as they can pursue a countercyclical macro policy, but also continue to manage the float by intervening to stabilize the exchange rate. The reason for this recommendation was that because one of the advantages of floating exchange rate is freeing internal policy, with a floating exchange rate, balance of payments disequilibrium would be rectified by a change in the external price of the currency. However, with a fixed rate, curing a deficit could involve a general deflationary policy resulting in unpleasant consequences for the whole economy such as unemployment.

The topic of financial contagion has attracted increased attention in economic literature over the past three decades; in particular after the Asian crisis of 1997. This dissertation investigates financial contagion and its effects on South Africa after the 2007 global financial crisis. In particular, it examines whether South Africa experienced contagion from the United States stock market to its own over the period 1 July 2007 to 1 April 2009 within the strict definition of contagion or otherwise: the fraction of exceedance events in the stock market that is left unexplained by its own covariates but is explained by the exceedance from another region. This is tested empirically with a binomial-nominal logistic model. In addition to this, various financial and trade transmission mechanisms are tested to empirically determine through which channels the crisis was propagated. The analysis makes use of quarterly data from January 2002 to April 2009, within an OLS framework, with a dummy variable differentiating the periods before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The findings suggest that contagion was in fact not present in this crisis, which speaks to market rationality and indicates that the South African stock market did in fact react rationally to a changing macroeconomic environment over this period. The transmission mechanism analyses indicate that there was a change in the interdependence relationship between the two stock markets following the crash of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. It is apparent that both trade and financial variables played significant roles in the propagation of this crisis.

The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.

This study aims to investigate the informational efficiency of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange with respect to monetary policy. Multivariate co-integration, Granger causality, vector error correction model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are employed to determine the semi-strong form efficiency in South African equity market. Monthly data of Johannesburg Stock Exchange index, money supply (M1 & M2), short term interest rate, inflation, rand/dollar exchange rate, London Stock Exchange index (FSTE100) and GDP from 2000-2009 are the variables of interest.Weak form efficiency is examined using unit root tests. The results of this study show evidence of weak form efficiency of the JSE using the Augmented-Dickey Fuller and Philip-Perron unit root tests. The results reject the hypothesis that the JSE is semi-strong and have important implications for government policy, regulatory authorities and participants in the South African stock market.

This study analyses the linkage between monetary policy and the stock market in South Africa using monthly data for the period from 2000 to 2010. It provides an overview of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the monetary regimes adopted by the South African Reserve Bank since the 1960s and the interrelation between the monetary variables and the stock market. It also provides a review of literature, both theoretical and empirical on the linkages between the two variables. Based on the review of literature, a Vector Autoregression [VAR] model was chosen as a method of analyzing the relationship between the two variables. The empirical results revealed that there is no long term relationship between the variables, however, in the short-run there is a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and the stock market in South Africa. This implies that innovations in the stock market affect the implementation of monetary policy and vice-versa. The study recommended that monetary authorities should pay attention to the fact that the stock market performance has a great impact on their decision making due to the fact it is greatly affected by repo rates.

M.Comm. / Under the previous accommodation system the monetary policy of the South African Reserve Bank failed to operate by means of open market transactions, and interest rate movements was solely the discretion of the South African Reserve Bank and was driven by means of the traditional Bank rate. The need for a more efficient and transparent accommodation system that is based on open market transactions and determined by demand and supply of liquidity was evident, and therefore the introduction of the repurchase agreement system in March 1998 was unavoidable. The ultimate objective of monetary policy is to achieve price stability, i.e. to ensure that the Reserve Bank has a goal of maintaining inflation at a level that would be more or less in line with the average rate of inflation in the economies of South Africa's major trading partners and international competitors. It is important that the Reserve Bank enhances transparency for the effective operation of an inflation-targeting framework. Transparency introduces predictability and helps to ensure that market expectations are consistent with the objective of price stability. The level of interest rates in a country can influence price stability directly. A transparent monetary policy will mean that changes in short-term interest rates should not surprise the market. Markets should anticipate decisions taken by the Reserve Bank and therefore transparency should promote the predictability of monetary policy. Since its implementation, the current accommodation system (repurchase agreement) has raised some concerns regarding transparency. The government's new monetary policy framework of inflation targeting also has some limitations that can influence the achieving of such targets. The one influences the other, and if interest rates and inflation is not managed transparently, it will have a severe impact on the overall efficiency of monetary policy in South Africa.