This thesis examines the relationship of monetary policy and investment in a theoretical framework in which monetary and real economic forces are intrinsically interlinked. The full shift from a money, real dichotomy in historical economic thought to the notion of money being an essential determinant of economic outcomes is traced to the work of Keynes, partly in the Treatise (1930), but more completely in the General Theory (1936). The treatment of monetary forces in economic growth models is examined. It is found that the money, investment relationship, with close money, real interaction, is appropriately pursued in the approach to monetary theory adopted by those who could broadly be characterised as Post Keynesian. The operation of monetary forces through the banking system is examined using this theoretical backdrop. A symbolic model is developed of the influence channels implied by the theoretical analysis, using the South African monetary system as the specific focus. The symbolic model is expressed in a form which enables empirical examination. South African data are compiled and used to determine the nature and statistical significance of hypothesised relationships. The implications of the theoretical analysis and empirical examination are drawn out both for monetary theory within the Post Keynesian mould, and for the conduct of monetary policy, in South Africa in particular. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

Financial innovation is a process that is not fully understood because of ~ts nebulous nature and the difficulties in determining its causes and effects. The pace of financial innovation has increased rapidly in recent years. With this increased level of new financial instruments and processes has also come the realisation that financial innovation may well influence the successful application of monetary policy. Under certain circumstances monetary policy may hampered or may be rendered ineffective by financial innovation. This dissertation examines the nature and causes of financial innovation and its implication for the successful application of monetary policy both internationally and in South Africa. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)

Globalisation and financial liberalisation has increased the linkages across countries in recent times. The existence of money market links has important implications for both domestic monetary policy and for investment decisions. This study examines the linkages between South Africa’s money market and selected major international money markets. The objectives of the study are firstly to examine the links between the repo rate of South Africa and the central bank rates of the EU, Japan, UK and US. Secondly, is to compare the influence of domestic and foreign monetary policy decisions on South Africa’s money market. The third objective is to examine the long run relationship between the South African money market and the money markets of its major trading partners. Three estimation techniques are used to examine the different links. Principal components analysis, four tests of cointegration, and stationarity tests of the spreads/risk premium between South Africa’s interest rates and the interest rates of the other countries. All three techniques show that there is no long-run link between South Africa’s central bank rates and the central bank rates of the other countries. This shows that the repo rate does not depend on movements in other central bank rates. Domestic money market interest rates respond strongly to changes in the repo rate whilst showing no dependence on central bank rates of the other countries. This confirms the autonomy of the South African Reserve Bank in carrying out policy objectives. When the risk premium is accounted for under the third technique, evidence of integration is found. This indicates that the risk premium plays a crucial part in the level of integration between South Africa and the countries included in the study.

An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.

This thesis investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in South Africa and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds. The hypothesis, proposed by Fisher (1930), that the nominal rate of interest should reflect movements in the expected rate of inflation has been the subject of much empirical research in many industrialised countries. This wealth of literature can be attributed to various factors including the pivotal role that the nominal rate of interest and, perhaps more importantly, the real rate of interest plays in the economy. The validity of the Fisher effect also has important implications for monetary policy and needs to be considered by central banks. Few studies have been conducted in South Africa to validate this important hypothesis. The analysis uses the 3-month bankers’ acceptance rate and the 10-year government bond rate to proxy both short- and long-term interest rates. The existence of a long-run unit proportional relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is tested using Johansen’s cointegration test. The data is analysed for the period April 2000 to July 2005 as the research aims to establish whether the Fisher relationship holds within an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. The short-run Fisher effect is not empirically verified. This is due to the effects of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and implies that short-term nominal interest rates are a good indication of the stance of monetary policy. A long-run cointegrating relationship is established between long-term interest rates and expected inflation. The long-run adjustment is less than unity, which can be attributed to the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework.

This thesis presents a theoretical analysis of developments in the South African monetary banking sector and money market. In the first section, evolution of the political, social and economic environments over the past few decades are discussed to provide the reader with an idea of some factors responsible for the underdeveloped nature of this market. It has been argued that the domestic political and economic landscape is relatively stable. Nevertheless, factors such as Zimbabwe’s political and ensuing economic turmoil, coupled with numerous financial crises in other developing nations have had negative consequences on domestic financial market development and economic growth. The current state of monetary policy is also analysed, within the economic environment, and various policy considerations have been put forth concerning the inflation targeting policy. The thesis then goes on to scrutinise the statutory and institutional environments within which the monetary banking institutions operate. Recent changes in the regulations governing the operations of these institutions are identified, together with the consequences of such laws on banking institutions and possible amendments have been suggested. In particular, a system of Asset Based Reserve Requirements (ABRR) has been recommended, in place of the current cash reserve requirement, to ensure regulators create a level playing field in the financial sector. The system can also provide authorities with the necessary control required to direct funds to the most desirable sectors of the economy. Development of the interbank market and the effect of reduced banking competition on the efficacy of the South African Reserve Bank’s refinancing operations and inflation targeting policy are also considered. Finally, the thesis analyses some effects of financial development on the South African economy, and whether it is in the best interests of the country to pursue financial reforms with such vigour. While financial development may bring South Africa closer to international standards of best practice, the timing and extent of the reforms will be critical to guarantee success.

Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in

This work examined the optimality of the inclusion of the exchange rate in the reaction function of the Central Bank in an inflation targeting framework. The study attempts to answer the question whether the exchange rate should have an independent role in an open economy Taylor-type rule. To this end, a Taylor-type rule is incorporating the exchange rate is estimated by the cointegration and vector error correction modeling (VECM) using quarterly data for the period of 1995 to 2009. The empirical studies point out the importance of the exchange rates in explaining and forecasting the behaviour of the South African Reserve Bank monetary policy control variable.

In the concluding paragraphs of Keynes’ General Theory, Keynes suggests that vested interests (power) may dominate in the short term, but that “sooner or later, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil” (Keynes; 1936:384). This dissertation seeks to establish whether this is so, and to what extent, in the period 1919 to 1936, insofar as the shaping of monetary policy was concerned. The context that South Africa found itself in at the time was one in which Britain, the colonising power, was in economic decline. Britain’s real economy had lost its lead in the world in the late 1800s, and by our period, 1919 – 1936, she was now struggling to maintain her dominance of the world’s financial economy. South African gold flows to London, and a South African monetary policy supportive of British monetary policy, became more important than ever to Britain. On the back of its ascendant real economy, the United States of America was fast developing its financial sector as a rival to that centered on London. In the broader monetary policy world, the orthodox monetary regime of the Gold Standard, which had worked so well in the period from 1875 to 1914, was firstly difficult to reestablish, and once established, difficult to maintain. Opinion on what should be done was divided between the majority who favoured a return to the orthodoxy, and a much smaller group, including John Maynard Keynes, who argued that the Gold Standard should no longer be the preferred monetary system. In South Africa, our period starts 17 years after the Second Boer War. Afrikaner nationalists intent on establishing independence from Britain, competed with those, including Jan Christiaan Smuts, who believed that tying our policy up with that of the British Empire was the best for South Africa. It is in this context that a naturalised Briton, which the research shows was a loyal servant of the London power elite, was appointed by the Empire-friendly Smuts government to advise the South African government on monetary policy, the setting up of the South African Reserve Bank, the appointment of its first Governor and other matters in the period up until the fall of this government in 1924. It is also in this context that an American ‘Currency Doctor’ and Professor of Economics at Princeton University, which the research shows was intimately connected with the American government and Benjamin Strong at the Federal Reserve, was appointed by the Pact government later in 1924, and who was anxious to throw off the yoke of British control. The theoretical paradigm of this study is that developed by John Maynard Keynes and after him by the post-Keynesian economists, particularly Basil Moore and Hyman P. Minsky. Instead of considering the theory chronologically, book by book, the theory section deals with the subject matter in the themes which came up in the monetary policy debates of the time, looking at all the theoretical literature that applied to these various themes. Aside from the correction of errors of emphasis and errors of fact dealt with in chapter two, chapter five of the dissertation is where most of the original research is reflected. This is the section which deals in depth with the experts that advised the South Africans at the time, how they came to be appointed, whose interests they served, what theories they used in support of their positions, and what was the decision-making process; from their appointment, until their reports were drafted into the law of the Union of South Africa. While Ally’s work (1994) is accepted as the principal work on the influence of the Bank of England, and Britain’s control of South African gold on South African gold and monetary policy, this dissertation claims legitimacy based on a much closer look at the motives and vested interests of the experts advising the South African government at the time. By the end of this chapter, I believe we are better placed to understand and analyse the relative influence of ideas and power on monetary policy in the period 1919 – 1936.