O objetivo desta dissertação, primeiramente, é analisar empiricamente se a adoção do regime de metas de inflação (RMI) tem se mostrado eficaz ao longo dos anos no controle e manutenção dos índices de preços. Posteriormente é analisado o grau de impacto da condução da política monetária, imposta pelo RMI, sobre a taxa de desemprego e crescimento real do produto. Para alcançar estes objetivos, é feita uma análise comparativa dos períodos que compreendem o antes e o depois da adoção (até o ano de 2014) deste regime monetário, em especial o caso brasileiro. Outros objetivos incluem, com o intuito de melhor compreender a operacionalização do RMI, discutir as principais teorias de inflação e de regimes monetários, enfatizando o RMI por ser objeto central deste estudo. Desta forma, são discutidos os fundamentos teóricos, seus formatos estruturais, bem como as vantagens e desvantagens apontadas pelos críticos deste regime. Por fim, é apresentada a conclusão acerca da eficácia, ou não, deste regime na manutenção de baixos índices de inflação, e se o mesmo sacrificou em algum grau os níveis de emprego e produto, em especial no Brasil. / The first aim of this dissertation is to examine empirically whether the adoption of inflation targeting regime (IT) has proven effective over the years for the control and maintenance of low and stable inflation rates. Next, it is analyzed the impact of monetary policy based on the IT on the unemployment rate and real GDP growth. To achieve these goals, a comparative analysis is carried out, following the “before and after” methodology (until the year 2014), focusing especially on the Brazilian case. Other objectives include achieving a better understanding about the operation of the IT, discussing the main theories of inflation and monetary regimes, emphasizing the IT. Thus, the theoretical foundations of the IT are presented, its many structural formats, as well as the advantages and disadvantages cited by critics of this regime. Finally, the work presents the conclusion about the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of this regime in maintaining low inflation rates, and if it has sacrificed employment levels and product, especially in Brazil.

O objetivo desta dissertação, primeiramente, é analisar empiricamente se a adoção do regime de metas de inflação (RMI) tem se mostrado eficaz ao longo dos anos no controle e manutenção dos índices de preços. Posteriormente é analisado o grau de impacto da condução da política monetária, imposta pelo RMI, sobre a taxa de desemprego e crescimento real do produto. Para alcançar estes objetivos, é feita uma análise comparativa dos períodos que compreendem o antes e o depois da adoção (até o ano de 2014) deste regime monetário, em especial o caso brasileiro. Outros objetivos incluem, com o intuito de melhor compreender a operacionalização do RMI, discutir as principais teorias de inflação e de regimes monetários, enfatizando o RMI por ser objeto central deste estudo. Desta forma, são discutidos os fundamentos teóricos, seus formatos estruturais, bem como as vantagens e desvantagens apontadas pelos críticos deste regime. Por fim, é apresentada a conclusão acerca da eficácia, ou não, deste regime na manutenção de baixos índices de inflação, e se o mesmo sacrificou em algum grau os níveis de emprego e produto, em especial no Brasil. / The first aim of this dissertation is to examine empirically whether the adoption of inflation targeting regime (IT) has proven effective over the years for the control and maintenance of low and stable inflation rates. Next, it is analyzed the impact of monetary policy based on the IT on the unemployment rate and real GDP growth. To achieve these goals, a comparative analysis is carried out, following the “before and after” methodology (until the year 2014), focusing especially on the Brazilian case. Other objectives include achieving a better understanding about the operation of the IT, discussing the main theories of inflation and monetary regimes, emphasizing the IT. Thus, the theoretical foundations of the IT are presented, its many structural formats, as well as the advantages and disadvantages cited by critics of this regime. Finally, the work presents the conclusion about the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of this regime in maintaining low inflation rates, and if it has sacrificed employment levels and product, especially in Brazil.

O objetivo desta dissertação, primeiramente, é analisar empiricamente se a adoção do regime de metas de inflação (RMI) tem se mostrado eficaz ao longo dos anos no controle e manutenção dos índices de preços. Posteriormente é analisado o grau de impacto da condução da política monetária, imposta pelo RMI, sobre a taxa de desemprego e crescimento real do produto. Para alcançar estes objetivos, é feita uma análise comparativa dos períodos que compreendem o antes e o depois da adoção (até o ano de 2014) deste regime monetário, em especial o caso brasileiro. Outros objetivos incluem, com o intuito de melhor compreender a operacionalização do RMI, discutir as principais teorias de inflação e de regimes monetários, enfatizando o RMI por ser objeto central deste estudo. Desta forma, são discutidos os fundamentos teóricos, seus formatos estruturais, bem como as vantagens e desvantagens apontadas pelos críticos deste regime. Por fim, é apresentada a conclusão acerca da eficácia, ou não, deste regime na manutenção de baixos índices de inflação, e se o mesmo sacrificou em algum grau os níveis de emprego e produto, em especial no Brasil. / The first aim of this dissertation is to examine empirically whether the adoption of inflation targeting regime (IT) has proven effective over the years for the control and maintenance of low and stable inflation rates. Next, it is analyzed the impact of monetary policy based on the IT on the unemployment rate and real GDP growth. To achieve these goals, a comparative analysis is carried out, following the “before and after” methodology (until the year 2014), focusing especially on the Brazilian case. Other objectives include achieving a better understanding about the operation of the IT, discussing the main theories of inflation and monetary regimes, emphasizing the IT. Thus, the theoretical foundations of the IT are presented, its many structural formats, as well as the advantages and disadvantages cited by critics of this regime. Finally, the work presents the conclusion about the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of this regime in maintaining low inflation rates, and if it has sacrificed employment levels and product, especially in Brazil.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à l’option de création d’une union monétaire entre les trois pays du Maghreb, àsavoir l’Algérie, le Maroc et la Tunisie. Elle essaye de répondre aux interrogations suivantes : quelles sont lescaractéristiques des régimes monétaires des pays du Maghreb et comment leurs choix sont-ils justifiés ? Les structures et lesinstitutions de ces pays les rendent-ils éligibles à une union monétaire ? Quelles conséquences macroéconomiques ces payspourront-ils supporter s’ils décident de créer cette union ? Existe-t-il des régimes monétaires alternatifs plus appropriés leursfacilitant in fine la transition vers l’étape ultime de l’intégration monétaire ?Afin de répondre à ces questions, nous avons opté pour la présentation de quatre chapitres. Nous avons décritdans un premier chapitre les fondements théoriques de l’intégration monétaire à travers l’étude de la théorie desZones Monétaires Optimales (ZMO), ses développements, ses lacunes, ses prolongements et ses applicationsempiriques. Nous avons tenté dans un deuxième chapitre de spécifier les mécanismes structurels et institutionnelssusceptibles de garantir la viabilité du processus d’intégration monétaire et de faire recours à quelques expérienceshistoriques. Nous avons essayé dans un troisième chapitre de décrire les régimes monétaires pratiqués par lespays du Maghreb et d’expliquer l’origine de leur hétérogénéité avant d’expliciter les possibilités de création d’uneZMO en présence de cette hétérogénéité. Enfin, nous avons cherché dans un quatrième chapitre à évaluer lesconséquences de la création d’une union monétaire entre les trois pays. Nous avons aussi proposé les régimesmonétaires envisageables qui leur permettent in fine une transition réussie vers cette union monétaire.Nos principaux résultats montrent que la création d’une union monétaire -et son corollaire la mise en place d’unerègle monétaire commune- n’est pas bénéfique, surtout pour l’Algérie du fait que la variabilité de l’inflation et del’activité est beaucoup plus importante qu’au Maroc ou en Tunisie. D’autre part, il a été convenu quel’harmonisation des cibles d’inflation dans le cadre d’un taux de change quasi-flexible ou l’instauration simultanéed’une caisse d’émission pourraient être des régimes monétaires appropriés permettant à ces trois pays unetransition réussie vers l’unification monétaire. / This thesis focuses on the option of the launching of a monetary union across three Maghreb Countries, notablyAlgeria, Morocco and Tunisia. It tries to answer the following questions: What are the characteristics of monetaryregimes in the Maghreb Countries and what are the underlying factors for their choices? Do the countries’ structures andinstitutions constitute a favourable environment for the creation of a monetary union between these countries? What would bethe macroeconomic consequences for these countries if they decided to create a monetary union? Are there any alternativemonetary regimes which would enable them to move toward the final steps of monetary integration in a more appropriate way?In order to answer these questions, we opted for a presentation of four chapters. In a first chapter, we describedthe theoretical foundations of monetary integration through the study of Optimum Currency Area Theory (OCA),their theoretical developments, their drawbacks, their extensions and their empirical applications. We tried in asecond chapter to present the structural and institutional mechanisms that insure the viability of the monetaryintegration process and to recourse to some historical experiences. We attempted in a third chapter to describe themonetary regimes currently in use in the Maghreb Countries and to explain the origin of their heterogeneity beforeanalyzing the possibility of setting up an OCA in this context of heterogeneity. Finally, in a fourth chapter, weassessed the consequences of the creation of a monetary union across the three countries. We also suggest possiblemonetary regimes which, in fine, might allow these countries to successfully move toward monetary union.Our main results show that the creation of a monetary union –and its corollary the implementation of a commonmonetary rule- is not beneficial, especially for Algeria where the variability of inflation and activity is moreimportant than in Morocco and Tunisia. On the other hand, we came to the conclusion that the harmonization ofinflation targets within a quasi-flexible exchange rate or the simultaneous setting up of a currency board in thesecountries could represent an appropriate monetary regime which would allow a safe move to monetary union.

The current monetary policy has been a widely discussed topic. The main focus has been given to the inflation targeting and whether it is suitable in situations with low inflation and low interests rates. The present study is addressing the monetary policy regimes and evolution of targeting aggregates under inflation targeting. The goal of my thesis is to verify whether the interests rates close to technical zero don t cause systematically larger deviations of forecasts of inflation from reality. Having compared most monetary regimes, their advantages and disadvantages in the current situation, I have come to the conclusion that although inflation targeting is not absolutely perfect, the shortcomings and the pitfalls of other regimes are considerably less favourable. Although the inflation deviation is increasing, this is most likely attributable to the error of model and the overtly optimistic forecast of the Czech National Bank than to the possibility that the errors directly relate to the level of interests rates.

Synchronizace inflačních cyklů je jednou z podmínek teorie optimální měnové unie, a jelikož bude jednoho dne valná většina členských států EU používat euro, zdá se analýza konvergence jejich inflačních měr jako rozumná i z dnešního pohledu. Používáme data měřítka harmonizovaného indexu spotřebitelských cen, jakož i velmi flexibilní model zdánlivě nesouvisejících regresních modelů a podáváme důkaz o všeobecně rozšířeném, setrvalém a robustním výskytu konvergence inflace v celé EU mezi lety 1999 a 2016. Navíc nám naše metodologie umožňuje zahrnout do modelu řadu dummy proměnných indikujících konkrétní období s možným dopadem na konvergenci inflace. V tomto smyslu ukazujeme, že měnové režimy zaměřené na cenovou stabilitu (inflační cílování, opatření omezující pohyb měnového kurzu) mají příznivý dopad, období globální finanční krize a nulové dolní meze se obecně nejeví jako rušivé, zatímco efekt zavádění společného evropského práva zůstává nejistý. Naše hlavní závěry implikují, že synchronizace inflace zřejmě nepředstavuje problém pro další rozšíření Eurozóny.