From efficient market theory we know that there is no such a thing as a free lunch. If you want higher returns then you also have to take on higher risk. The critical question technical analysis has to answer therefore becomes, does technical analysis (TA) provide an investor with an edge in the stock market? To answer this question empirically data was investigated for the Standard and Poor’s-500 Index for a twenty years time period from 1986 to 2006. Two different portfolios were constructed. The portfolios were named Hugin with a high time resolution a Munin with a lower time resolution. A simple 30 period MA cross strategy with optimized stop-losses were tested on the two portfolios. The stop-losses were optimized on the first ten years 1986-1996 in order to make the backtesting more realistic. The conclusion was that neither Hugin nor did Munin produce abnormal returns without the optimized stop losses. When the stop losses were optimized, Hugin but not Munin provided an investor with slightly better return than a long position. However Hugin’s returns were highly sensitive to the assumed level of price slippage and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn is therefore that investing based only on a simple 30 periods moving average crossover investment strategy seams not to be the best way to manage hard-earned money.

<p>From efficient market theory we know that there is no such a thing as a free lunch. If you want higher returns then you also have to take on higher risk. The critical question technical analysis has to answer therefore becomes, does technical analysis (TA) provide an investor with an edge in the stock market? To answer this question empirically data was investigated for the Standard and Poor’s-500 Index for a twenty years time period from 1986 to 2006.</p><p>Two different portfolios were constructed. The portfolios were named Hugin with a high time resolution a Munin with a lower time resolution. A simple 30 period MA cross strategy with optimized stop-losses were tested on the two portfolios. The stop-losses were optimized on the first ten years 1986-1996 in order to make the backtesting more realistic.</p><p>The conclusion was that neither Hugin nor did Munin produce abnormal returns without the optimized stop losses. When the stop losses were optimized, Hugin but not Munin provided an investor with slightly better return than a long position. However Hugin’s returns were highly sensitive to the assumed level of price slippage and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn is therefore that investing based only on a simple 30 periods moving average crossover investment strategy seams not to be the best way to manage hard-earned money.</p>

The purpose of this diploma thesis is a testing of utilization of the indicators for technical analysis on selected equities from SPAD. The main aim of this thesis is to answer whether the trading based on the indicators of technical analysis could be profitable particularly for an ordinary investor in the time of the financial crises. For this purpose there were used equity rates for ČEZ, Komerční banka, Philip Morris ČR and Telefónica O2C.R.. Analyzed period is divided into two parts. Parameters of the indicators are tested in the first period from 2002 to 2006 and the calculated optimized parameters are used in the second period from 2002 to March of 2009.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o uso do método das médias móveis na atomização de cádmio, crômio e chumbo utilizando filamento de tungstênio de 150 W (OSRAM) como atomizador eletrotérmico. Realizou-se um estudo sistemático da influência da altura de observação, da temperatura e taxa de aquecimento na atomização dos analitos e a viabilidade do uso do método das médias móveis no tratamento dos sinais transientes gerados na atomização. O estudo da influência da altura de observação foi realizado posicionado-se o filamento no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm abaixo do feixe de radiação. A influência da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foi estudada utilizando temperaturas na etapa de atomização entre 1890 e 2780 °C. O método das médias móveis foi aplicado aos sinais transientes gerados na atomização, com o filamento posicionado no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm e com temperatura de atomização entre 2060 e 2780 °C, utilizando fatores 0, 3, 5, 7 e 9. No estudo da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foram aplicadas ddps no software de controle na etapa de atomização entre 4 e 12 V. As soluções usadas no desenvolvimento deste trabalho foram preparadas em meio 0,1 % v/v HNO3. Utilizou-se como gás de proteção a mistura de 90% Ar+10 % H2. Para o cádmio, recomenda-se a utilização da altura de observação de 1 mm, para o chumbo recomenda-se 0 mm e para o crômio a altura recomendada é a de 2 mm. Os estudos comprovaram a dependência dos sinais de absorção atômica em altura de pico com a temperatura e a taxa de aquecimento. O cádmio foi o analito em que a taxa de aquecimento foi a menos crítica para a atomização, enquanto que o crômio foi o mais afetado pela variação da taxa de aquecimento. Não foi observada diferença significativa entre os sinais de cádmio com alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. Para o chumbo, a diferença entre os sinais com altura de observação de 0 e 1 mm foi constante em todas as taxas de aquecimento estudadas. A 2 mm a diferença entre os sinais aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. Para o crômio, não ocorreu uma diferença significativa entre os sinais nas alturas de 1 e 2 mm com atomização até 2180 °C. Nos três analitos a sensibilidade aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. O método das médias móveis permitiu a diminuição da variação dos sinais transientes do branco e do ruído. Para o cádmio, não ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método com a aplicação das médias móveis em nenhuma condição. Para o chumbo e crômio, ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método nas alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. O limite de detecção instrumental apresentou uma melhora significativa para os três elementos em todas as condições estudadas. / The aim of this paper was to evaluate the use of moving averages of cadmium, chromium and lead transient atomic absorption signals generated by 150 W (OSRAM) tungsten coil electrothermal atomizer. A systematic study dealing with the influence of observation height, temperature and heating rate on atomization was carried through in order to demonstrate the viability of moving averages in the treatment of the transient signals during the atomization step. The influence of observation height was carried out with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), at 1 and 2 mm below the radiation beam. The influence of atomization temperature and heating rate were evaluated between 1890 °C (3.3 K.ms-1) and 2780 °C (9,3 K.ms-1). The transient moving averages were obtained by using factors 0, 3, 5, 7 and 9, with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), 1 and 2 mm and with atomization between 2060 and 2780 °C. For obtaining different temperatures and heating rates, an appropriate power supply was used by applying 4 to 12 V (40 to 120 W) to the atomizer during atomization and a mixture 90% Ar+10% H2 was used as purge/atomization gas. Blanks and reference solutions were prepared in 0,1% v/v HNO3. Best results for cadmium were obtained at 1 mm. For lead it is recommended 0 mm and for chromium 2 mm. The studies had proven the dependence of peak height absorbance signals with temperature and heating rate. Cadmium was the analyte where the heating rate was to less critical for the atomization, whereas chromium was affected by the variation of the heating rate. Significant differences were not observed between cadmium signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm. For lead, the difference between the absorbance signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm were constant in all tested heating rates. At 2 mm the difference between signals increased by increasing the heating rates. For chromium, a significant difference was not noticed between peak height absorbance signals at 1 and 2 mm with up to 2180 °C. As expected, sensitivity increased for all three analytes by increasing the heating rate. The moving average is a powerful mathematical treatment for minimizing unpredictable fluctuations of the base line during the chosen time interval for measuring the transient absorbance signals. With the exception of Cd, where no improvements on the method detection limit were noticed, the application of the moving average for the lead and chromium showed 3 to 4 fold improvement in the LDmet at 0 and 1 mm observation heights, respectively. The LDinstr presented a significant improvement (3 to 6 fold) for the three analytes in all studied conditions.

Apesar do reconhecimento da relevante contribuição epidemiológica dos registros de condenação em abatedouros, é escassa a divulgação sobre estudos referentes às circunstâncias relacionadas com as apreensões em matadouros de frangos. Avaliaram-se dez anos de registros oficiais de condenação em um abatedouro sob inspeção federal no Estado de São Paulo, obtendo-se informações a respeito de 24 causas de apreensão. Análises de tendência, sazonalidade e de componente cíclico foram efetuadas para 21 variáveis. Isto é discutido frente às dificuldades na obtenção sistemática e fidedigna de dados, propondo-se a utilização de programas informatizados para análise dos registros mensais em tempo real, o que possibilita a reavaliação dos programas de controle para as enfermidades desencadeantes das apreensões. Abordaram-se aspectos legislativos da inspeção de aves, enfocando limitações internacionais e particularidades de alguns processos patológicos, sugerindo adequação em determinados procedimentos sanitários. Destacou-se a comparação de dados locais com apreensões de vários países e o impacto interpretativo de diferentes metodologias de análise na concepção das ocorrências. As avaliações permitiram concluir que abordagens informatizadas para sazonalidade e ciclicidade nas séries temporais de apreensões podem incrementar o poder da verificação de programas HACCP. Além disso, observou-se maior poder para revelação de padrões, pela associação dos dois tipos de análise. / There is a lack of studies for circumstances related to poultry abattoir condemnations, despite its wide recognition as a relevant source of epidemiological information. Ten year official condemnation records were issued for one federal inspected slaughterhouse in São Paulo State, Brazil, gathering data about 24 condemnation causes. Global, seasonal and cyclical trends were evaluated for 21 variables, which were further debated concerning trouble reporting of systematic reliable data. Furthermore, the study suggests software packages utilization for real-time monthly data analysis, which in turn leads to control schedules reevaluation for condemnation disease determinants. Legislative approach to poultry inspection, focusing on international limitations and pathological process features were asked for sanitary procedures adequacy. The local and several countries data comparison, besides different analytical methodology impact were highlighted. The conclusion assigns that time series seasonal and cyclical computerized analysis can enhance HACCP\'s verification power and better reveal patterns when combined.

Economic stringencies have compelled Canadian hospitals to examine their administrative effectiveness critically. Improved supplies and inventory procedures adopted by leading industrial corporations, suggest that hospitals might benefit from such systems. Lack of the profit incentive, and the high ratio of wages to total expenses in hospitals, have delayed adoption of modern inventory management techniques. This study examined the economic status of Canadian hospitals, and endeavoured to discover whether a computer-based inventory management system, incorporating short-term statistical demand forecasting, would be feasible and advantageous. Scientific forecasting for inventory management is not used by hospitals. The writer considered which technique would be most suited to their needs, taking account of benefits claimed by industrial users. Samples of demand data were subjected to a variety of simple forecasting methods, including moving averages, exponentially smoothed averages and the Box-Jenkins method. Comparisons were made in terms of relative size of forecast errors; ease of data maintenance, and demands upon hospital clerical staffs. The computer system: BRUFICH facilitated scrutiny of the effect of each technique upon major components of the system. It is concluded that either of two methods would be appropriate: moving averages and double exponential smoothing. The latter, when combined with adaptive control through tracking signals, is easily incorporated within the total inventory system. It requires only a short run of data, tracks trend satisfactorily, and demands little operator intervention. The original system designed by this writer was adopted by the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, and has significantly improved their inventory management.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o uso do método das médias móveis na atomização de cádmio, crômio e chumbo utilizando filamento de tungstênio de 150 W (OSRAM) como atomizador eletrotérmico. Realizou-se um estudo sistemático da influência da altura de observação, da temperatura e taxa de aquecimento na atomização dos analitos e a viabilidade do uso do método das médias móveis no tratamento dos sinais transientes gerados na atomização. O estudo da influência da altura de observação foi realizado posicionado-se o filamento no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm abaixo do feixe de radiação. A influência da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foi estudada utilizando temperaturas na etapa de atomização entre 1890 e 2780 °C. O método das médias móveis foi aplicado aos sinais transientes gerados na atomização, com o filamento posicionado no centro (0 mm), 1 e 2 mm e com temperatura de atomização entre 2060 e 2780 °C, utilizando fatores 0, 3, 5, 7 e 9. No estudo da temperatura e da taxa de aquecimento foram aplicadas ddps no software de controle na etapa de atomização entre 4 e 12 V. As soluções usadas no desenvolvimento deste trabalho foram preparadas em meio 0,1 % v/v HNO3. Utilizou-se como gás de proteção a mistura de 90% Ar+10 % H2. Para o cádmio, recomenda-se a utilização da altura de observação de 1 mm, para o chumbo recomenda-se 0 mm e para o crômio a altura recomendada é a de 2 mm. Os estudos comprovaram a dependência dos sinais de absorção atômica em altura de pico com a temperatura e a taxa de aquecimento. O cádmio foi o analito em que a taxa de aquecimento foi a menos crítica para a atomização, enquanto que o crômio foi o mais afetado pela variação da taxa de aquecimento. Não foi observada diferença significativa entre os sinais de cádmio com alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. Para o chumbo, a diferença entre os sinais com altura de observação de 0 e 1 mm foi constante em todas as taxas de aquecimento estudadas. A 2 mm a diferença entre os sinais aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. Para o crômio, não ocorreu uma diferença significativa entre os sinais nas alturas de 1 e 2 mm com atomização até 2180 °C. Nos três analitos a sensibilidade aumentou com o aumento da taxa de aquecimento. O método das médias móveis permitiu a diminuição da variação dos sinais transientes do branco e do ruído. Para o cádmio, não ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método com a aplicação das médias móveis em nenhuma condição. Para o chumbo e crômio, ocorreu uma melhora no limite de detecção do método nas alturas de observação de 0 e 1 mm. O limite de detecção instrumental apresentou uma melhora significativa para os três elementos em todas as condições estudadas. / The aim of this paper was to evaluate the use of moving averages of cadmium, chromium and lead transient atomic absorption signals generated by 150 W (OSRAM) tungsten coil electrothermal atomizer. A systematic study dealing with the influence of observation height, temperature and heating rate on atomization was carried through in order to demonstrate the viability of moving averages in the treatment of the transient signals during the atomization step. The influence of observation height was carried out with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), at 1 and 2 mm below the radiation beam. The influence of atomization temperature and heating rate were evaluated between 1890 °C (3.3 K.ms-1) and 2780 °C (9,3 K.ms-1). The transient moving averages were obtained by using factors 0, 3, 5, 7 and 9, with the tungsten coil in the center (0 mm), 1 and 2 mm and with atomization between 2060 and 2780 °C. For obtaining different temperatures and heating rates, an appropriate power supply was used by applying 4 to 12 V (40 to 120 W) to the atomizer during atomization and a mixture 90% Ar+10% H2 was used as purge/atomization gas. Blanks and reference solutions were prepared in 0,1% v/v HNO3. Best results for cadmium were obtained at 1 mm. For lead it is recommended 0 mm and for chromium 2 mm. The studies had proven the dependence of peak height absorbance signals with temperature and heating rate. Cadmium was the analyte where the heating rate was to less critical for the atomization, whereas chromium was affected by the variation of the heating rate. Significant differences were not observed between cadmium signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm. For lead, the difference between the absorbance signals with observation heights of 0 and 1 mm were constant in all tested heating rates. At 2 mm the difference between signals increased by increasing the heating rates. For chromium, a significant difference was not noticed between peak height absorbance signals at 1 and 2 mm with up to 2180 °C. As expected, sensitivity increased for all three analytes by increasing the heating rate. The moving average is a powerful mathematical treatment for minimizing unpredictable fluctuations of the base line during the chosen time interval for measuring the transient absorbance signals. With the exception of Cd, where no improvements on the method detection limit were noticed, the application of the moving average for the lead and chromium showed 3 to 4 fold improvement in the LDmet at 0 and 1 mm observation heights, respectively. The LDinstr presented a significant improvement (3 to 6 fold) for the three analytes in all studied conditions.

Apesar do reconhecimento da relevante contribuição epidemiológica dos registros de condenação em abatedouros, é escassa a divulgação sobre estudos referentes às circunstâncias relacionadas com as apreensões em matadouros de frangos. Avaliaram-se dez anos de registros oficiais de condenação em um abatedouro sob inspeção federal no Estado de São Paulo, obtendo-se informações a respeito de 24 causas de apreensão. Análises de tendência, sazonalidade e de componente cíclico foram efetuadas para 21 variáveis. Isto é discutido frente às dificuldades na obtenção sistemática e fidedigna de dados, propondo-se a utilização de programas informatizados para análise dos registros mensais em tempo real, o que possibilita a reavaliação dos programas de controle para as enfermidades desencadeantes das apreensões. Abordaram-se aspectos legislativos da inspeção de aves, enfocando limitações internacionais e particularidades de alguns processos patológicos, sugerindo adequação em determinados procedimentos sanitários. Destacou-se a comparação de dados locais com apreensões de vários países e o impacto interpretativo de diferentes metodologias de análise na concepção das ocorrências. As avaliações permitiram concluir que abordagens informatizadas para sazonalidade e ciclicidade nas séries temporais de apreensões podem incrementar o poder da verificação de programas HACCP. Além disso, observou-se maior poder para revelação de padrões, pela associação dos dois tipos de análise. / There is a lack of studies for circumstances related to poultry abattoir condemnations, despite its wide recognition as a relevant source of epidemiological information. Ten year official condemnation records were issued for one federal inspected slaughterhouse in São Paulo State, Brazil, gathering data about 24 condemnation causes. Global, seasonal and cyclical trends were evaluated for 21 variables, which were further debated concerning trouble reporting of systematic reliable data. Furthermore, the study suggests software packages utilization for real-time monthly data analysis, which in turn leads to control schedules reevaluation for condemnation disease determinants. Legislative approach to poultry inspection, focusing on international limitations and pathological process features were asked for sanitary procedures adequacy. The local and several countries data comparison, besides different analytical methodology impact were highlighted. The conclusion assigns that time series seasonal and cyclical computerized analysis can enhance HACCP\'s verification power and better reveal patterns when combined.

This thesis is focused on selected methods of the technical analysis and their application on foreign exchange rate. The goal is to evaluate the usability of individual methods in the field of foreign exchange market. The main emphasis is on moving averages, but also other methods are tested. For the purpose of evaluation is used the profitability of tested methods or other suitable characteristics. The methods of technical analysis are theoretically described in the first part of this thesis and in the second part follows their testing with the use of real data and the evaluation of their performance.

The diploma thesis deals with the design of an automatic trading system for trading on the market of selected commodities, constructed with the help of technical indicators. It also includes system optimization using genetic algorithms to maximize profit and stability. Finally, an economic evaluation of the achieved results is prepared.