Thesis advisor: Christopher Baum / Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / Do events in the natural gas market cause repercussions in the crude oil market? In light of the enormous impact that price movements in the two largest U.S. energy markets have on the economy, it is important to understand not just the individual markets but also how they relate to one another. On this front, the literature presents a puzzle: while economic theory suggests that the oil and gas markets are interlinked through a bi-directional causal relationship, empirical research has concluded that the oil market affects the gas market but not vice versa. The first chapter of this dissertation improves on the previous studies in two ways: by using high-frequency, intraday oil and gas futures prices and by analyzing the effect of specific news announcements from the weekly oil and gas inventory reports. The results dispel the notion of one-way causality and provide support for the theory. The reaction of the futures volatility and returns is asymmetric, although this asymmetry does not follow the "good news" vs. "bad news" pattern from stock and bond markets; the response depends on whether the shock is driven by oil or gas inventory gluts or shortages. The two-way causality holds not only for the nearby futures contract but also for contracts of longer maturities. These findings underscore the importance of analyzing financial markets in a multi-market context. The second chapter of this dissertation asks whether volatility and trading volume evolve in a unidirectional or bidirectional, contemporaneous or lagged relationship in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets. This question is important because it affects trading and government regulation but previous studies have come to conflicting conclusions. Their main shortcoming is the low frequency of data used in the analysis. This chapter improves on the previous studies in three ways: by using high-frequency, intraday oil and gas futures prices and volume, by including trading not only during the day but also during the night, and by analyzing not only the nearby futures contract but also contracts with longer maturities. For the nearby contract, Granger-causality tests show that past values of volume help explain volatility which agrees with the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis. Past values of volatility have explanatory power for volume only when absolute return is used as the volatility measure; when the conditional variance from GARCH models is used as the volatility measure, the causality in this direction disappears. These results change when low-frequency daily data is applied. It is also shown that the volatility-volume relationship differs for contracts with longer maturities. These findings are relevant for regulations, such as trader position limits recently adopted by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trade Commission. The third chapter of this dissertation investigates whether the production structure of firms affects international optimal portfolios, risk-sharing, and response of terms of trade (TOT) to shocks. The answer to this question would enhance our understanding of the home equity bias, yet it has not been addressed in the theoretical literature. This chapter studies the question in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous portfolio allocation. It shows that the optimal portfolio includes more home equity as the production structure changes from exporter-only, i.e., firms operating in their home countries and serving foreign markets by exports, to multi-national-company-extreme (MNC), i.e., firms hiring labor in both countries and producing locally in both countries. This shift occurs because changing the firms' production structure eliminates exposure to technology differences and allows the home household to accomplish the same diversification with less foreign equity. The production structure also has implications for the effect of technology shocks on the TOT. Under the exporter-only setup, a shock to technology causes a standard TOT deterioration, whereas under the MNC-extreme setup, a shock to technology leads to a TOT improvement. By producing testable predictions, this chapter underscores the need to take firms' production structure into account when analyzing international optimal portfolios, risk sharing, and response of the TOT to technology shocks. This is especially important since empirical research has generated conflicting results. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This dissertation adds to the literature on international openness and economic growth by studying and quantifying the effects of openness to trade and multinational production using a model of endogenous innovation with firm heterogeneity. The first chapter discusses the contribution of this dissertation to the theoretical and empirical literature on international openness. The second chapter studies and quantifies the long-run effects of openness to trade and multinational production in the context of advanced economies using a model of endogenous innovation with firm heterogeneity. Counterfactual experiments conducted using a calibrated version of a theoretical model find that the US would experience a significant welfare cost in consumption terms by restricting openness to both trade and horizontal multinational production with other OECD countries, with the growth effect accounting for a substantial part of the cost. Chapter Three extends the theoretical model presented in Chapter Two to include features specific to the North-South context. I show that allowing for the possibility that the South may switch from being an imitator to becoming an innovator is essential for examining the long-run growth effect of stronger intellectual property rights. In particular, the North and the South both prefer stronger intellectual property rights because this will achieve the fastest long-run economic growth. If the South is an imitator country, the North needs to maintain its absolute advantage in technology creation by maintaining a sufficiently large pool of uncopied ideas. Otherwise both countries will fall into a slow-growth equilibrium in the long run. In Chapter Four, I account for transitional dynamics and study the gains from openness and stronger intellectual property rights that arise in the North-South context. Counterfactual experiments based on a calibrated version of the model presented in Chapter Three find that the transitional welfare gains from further trade openness between China and the OECD countries can be significant. In contrast to the existing growth literature, a deterrence of imitation has limited welfare effects when the South can switch from being an imitator to becoming an innovator country. This points to a source of potential bias in the welfare estimates provided by the existing literature. / Thesis (Ph.D, Economics) -- Queen's University, 2012-05-18 10:18:34.338

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第25080号 / 経博第687号 / 新制||経||306(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 神事 直人, 准教授 長谷川 誠, 准教授 遊喜 一洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM