Decision making is an essential activity for humans and often becomes complex in the presence of uncertainty or insufficient knowledge. This research aims at estimating preferences using pairwise comparisons. A decision maker uses pairwise comparison when he/she is unable to directly assign criteria weights or scores to the available options. The judgments provided in pairwise comparisons may not always be consistent for several reasons. Experimentation has been used to obtain statistical evidence related to the widely-used consistency measures. The results highlight the need to propose new consistency measures. Two new consistency measures - termed congruence and dissonance - are proposed to aid the decision maker in the process of elicitation. Inconsistencies in pairwise comparisons are of two types i.e. cardinal and ordinal. It is shown that both cardinal and ordinal consistency can be improved with the help of these two measures. A heuristic method is then devised to detect and remove intransitive judgments. The results suggest that the devised method is feasible for improving ordinal consistency and is computationally more efficient than the optimization-based methods. There exist situations when revision of judgments is not allowed and prioritization is required without attempting to remove inconsistency. A new prioritization method has been proposed using the graph-theoretic approach. Although the performance of the proposed prioritization method was found to be comparable to other approaches, it has practical limitation in terms of computation time. As a consequence, the problem of prioritization is explored as an optimization problem. A new method based on multi-objective optimization is formulated that offers multiple non-dominated solutions and outperforms all other relevant methods for inconsistent set of judgments. A priority estimation tool (PriEsT) has been developed that implements the proposed consistency measures and prioritization methods. In order to show the benefits of PriEsT, a case study involving Telecom infrastructure selection is presented.

Each czech crown is important for the budget of every household, particularly in the times of crisis. Saving can be achieved by selecting an appropriate insurance product, which is also the concern of this thesis. Because there exists a plenty of insurance companies on the czech market and majority of them offers several insurance products for each kind of insurance, it is not simple to choose the optimal product. On top of that, these insurance products differ not only in their price, but in various properties and additional insurance as well, which makes the task even more difficult. The most suitable insurance product can be found with multiple-criteria decision making, that was amended by the demand function in this thesis. The goal of the demand function is to advise those interested in the insurance whether they should or should not be insured under given circumstances. The thesis is designed so that it could be used for decisions of anybody interested in insurance on any insurance product.

Orientador: Valério Antonio Pamplona Salomon / Coorientador: Jorge Muniz Junior / Banca: Fernando Augusto Silva Marins / Banca: Marco Antonio Carvalho Pereira / Resumo: Avanços na tecnologia e maior facilidade na obtenção de informação impõem que as instituições de ensino ampliem o oferecimento de cursos. Ou seja, tem-se a necessidade de criar novos cursos para atender novos mercados de trabalho. Este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar como uma instituição de ensino tecnológico, localizada na região norte, pode escolher um novo curso a ser implantado em um dos seus campi. Cinco alternativas foram consideradas. Para auxiliar na tomada de decisão, aplicou-se o método AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). Assim, com o método AHP foi possível comparar os cursos, resultando no curso de Bacharelado em Zootecnia como a melhor alternativa / Abstract: Advances in technology and greater ease in obtaining information require that educational institutions expand the offering of courses. That is, there is a need to create new courses to meet new labor markets. This work aims to present as a technological teaching institution, located in the northern region, can choose a new course to be implanted in one of its campuses. Five alternatives were considered. To assist in decision making, the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method was applied. Thus, with the AHP method it was possible to compare the courses, resulting in the Bachelor of Animal Science course as the best alternative / Mestre

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An expert system approach to help OR naive users formulate and solve goal programs is proposed. The approach is demonstrated for single product blending problems using VP-Expert as the developmental tool. Results of a study using undergraduate and graduate business students to test the expert system effectiveness are provided. An expert system determines the problem type using a taxonomy based upon problem context. Each problem type possesses distinct characteristics. Characteristics of twenty-four different problem types are discussed. Formulation of constraints using problem characteristics is demonstrated. The expert system uses constraint information to assist users in goal selection. Goal structures are constructed using a pairwise comparison technique. Solution values, recommendations based upon sensitivity analysis, and trade-offs between conflicting goals are provided to the user. A feedback loop permitting model changes and reiteration of solution and recommendation steps is provided. / Ph. D.

Multi-Attribute Utility Technology (MAUT) was investigated as an alternative organizational training evaluation method. Research questions focused on what problems emerge in involving stakeholders in training evaluation, what technical problems emerge in the application of the MAUT steps, and what can be learned about the credibility of MAUT results and their impact on decision making. Five employee training courses offered by a city government training unit were evaluated. Two groups of stakeholders developed desired course attributes and indicators using MAUT. Survey data collected from students and their immediate supervisors provided indicator measurements. Location measures and utilities were provided to stakeholders and students. Stakeholders then evaluated MAUT from the participant perspective. Positive and negative findings had implications for the effective use of MAUT. Positive findings were that stakeholders valued the group process and opportunity to have input to the evaluation; surveys were useful for measuring attribute indicators; the development of attributes, indicators, weights and location measures presented no technical problem; and, that MAUT results were credible to students and Stakeholders. Negative findings were that stakeholder availability was very difficult to obtain; not all stakeholders could deal with the conceptual tasks of MAUT; surveys were not feasible for attribute development; calculation and interpretation of MAUT utilities were seen as too complex by stakeholders; and, the use of MAUT results to influence decisions was hindered by the perceived complexity and the absence in the study of the primary decision maker for training. It was concluded that a major strength of MAUT is that it affords the investigator the opportunity to easily tap into the organizational culture and political setting of a program. In addition, the strengths of MAUT as a training evaluation method are highly dependent on inclusion of all relevant stakeholders, a strong commitment of stakeholder time, stakeholder ability to communicate values and priorities, and, the clear and simple reporting of MAUT results. Detailed recommendations for the effective use of MAUT are provided. / Ph. D.

Decision-related activities, such as bottom-up and top-down policy development, analysis, and planning, stand to benefit from the development and application of computer-based models that are capable of representing spatiotemporal social human behavior in local contexts. This is especially the case with our efforts to understand and search for ways to mitigate the context-specific effects of climate change, in which case such models need to include interacting social and ecological components. The development and application of such models has been significantly hindered by the challenges in designing artificial agents whose behavior is grounded in both empirical evidence and theory and in testing the ability of artificial agents to represent the behavior of real-world decision-makers. This dissertation advances our ability to develop such models by overcoming these challenges through the creation of: (a) three new frameworks, (b) two new methods, and (c) two new open-source modeling tools. The three new frameworks include: (a) the SOSIEL framework, which provides a theoretically-grounded blueprint for the development of a new generation of cognitive, multi-agent, and knowledge-based models that consist of agents empowered with cognitive architectures; (b) a new framework for analyzing the bounded rationality of decision-makers, which offers insight into and facilitates the analysis of the relationship between a decision situation and a decision-maker's decision; and (c) a new framework for analyzing the doubly-bounded rationality (DBR) of artificial agents, which does the same for the relationship between a decision situation and an artificial agent's decision. The two new methods include: (a) the SOSIEL method for acquiring and operationalizing decision-making knowledge, which advances our ability to acquire, process, and represent decision-making knowledge for cognitive, multi-agent, and knowledge-based models; and (b) the DBR method for testing the ability of artificial agents to represent human decision-making. The two open-source modeling tools include: (a) the SOSIEL platform, which is a cognitive, multi-agent, and knowledge-based platform for simulating human decision-making; and (b) an application of the platform as the SOSIEL Human Extension (SHE) to an existing forest-climate change model, called LANDIS-II, allowing for the analysis of co-evolutionary human-forest-climate interactions. To provide a context for examples and also guidelines for knowledge acquisition, the dissertation includes a case study of social-ecological interactions in an area of the Ukrainian Carpathians where LANDIS-II with SHE are currently being applied. As a result, this dissertation advances science by: (a) providing a theoretical foundation for and demonstrating the implementation of a next generation of models that are cognitive, multi-agent, and knowledge-based; and (b) providing a new perspective for understanding, analyzing, and testing the ability of artificial agents to represent human decision-making that is rooted in psychology.

This study aims to explore the decision-making criteria for requirements selection in market-driven software development projects in China. Requirements selection decisions are made by reconciling the conflicting stakeholders??? value propositions into a mutually-agreed set through the negotiation and communication process between stakeholders. Firstly, this study identified decision-making criteria according to different stakeholders??? value propositions, and then evaluated the importance of the criteria when making the decisions of requirements selection. Moreover, the study determined the degree to which the stakeholders from business, product, and project perspectives influence the decision-making process. Furthermore, the study explored the communication between major stakeholders in requirements selection process, as a foundation to support and guide the process. A Delphi survey was applied in this study. Opinions from experienced industrial experts were obtained to achieve reliable consensus among them on the criteria and relative importance of the criteria in requirements selection process. The Delphi survey in this study included four phases of data collection by a series of intensive questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback and follow-up interviews. 132 Experts from 11 companies were recruited by following the rigid procedure to ensure the validity and reliability of the research. The study indicated that criteria from the business perspective had a major influence on decision-making of requirements selection, while project- and product-perspective criteria were relatively lower in priority. However, there were some inconsistencies among the opinions of the recruited experts regarding the importance of the criteria. The inconsistencies may result from a number of different factors, for example; different software development projects; different size, culture, organizational structure or maturity level of the companies; or different working positions of the experts surveyed. In addition, the study found three different types of communication in requirements selection in the companies surveyed. Further, Chinese culture was believed to have effects on the communication process between stakeholders. While informal communication was highlighted in Chinese context, the Chinese culture of strictly hierarchical communication could lead to problems in the communication process. Further research is recommended to gain deeper insight into these issues.

The façade retrofit market faces some key barriers: the selection of performance criteria and the reliability of the performance data. On the demand side, the problem is approached from an investment perspective which creates "split incentives" between the stakeholders who pay for the investment and those who benefit from it. On the supply side, there is an inherent complexity in modeling these options because of the incomplete knowledge of the physical and cost parameters involved in the performance evaluation. The thermal comfort of the building occupant is an important component of the retrofit performance assessment. This research attempts to fill a gap in the approach to façade retrofit decision by 1) quantifying uncertainties in these three dimensions of performance, 2) incorporating new financing models available in the retrofit market, 3) considering the target and risk attitude of the decision maker. The methodology proposed in this research integrates key indicators for delivery process, environmental performance, and investment performance. The purpose is to provide a methodological framework for performance evaluation. A residential case study is conducted to test the proposed framework. Three retrofit scenarios including the financing structure are examined. Each façade retrofit scenario is then evaluated based on the level of confidence to meet or exceed a specific target improvement for the Net Present Value and the risk to fall below a minimum improvement threshold. The case study results confirm that risk must be considered for more reliable façade retrofit decision-making. Research findings point to further research needed to expand the understanding of the interdependencies among uncertain parameters.