The negative effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been felt on a global scale.This makes it more relevant than it has been in a long time to understand how to achievesuccessful mediation and negotiation between Russia and post-soviet states. By examining theRusso-Georgian War of 2008 and the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2022, and thencomparing the two cases. This paper aims to investigate what factors contribute to successfulmediation in these two cases, and to hypothesise what obstacles exist for achieving successfulmediation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The method used for this purpose isprocess-tracing, and the theoretical framework that has been used is Zartmans ripeness theoryand its formula for the concepts of mutually enticing opportunity, mutually hurting stalemate,ripe moment, and way out. The results of this study shows that a ripe moment existed in theconflict between Russia and Georgia despite the weak grounds for the existence of a mutuallyhurting stalemate. The study also concluded that the ceasefire agreement between the twocountries included a strong presence of one of the subcategories of the mutually enticingopportunity concept. Furthermore, the study also showed that a mutually hurting stalemate doesnot exist in the war between Russia and Ukraine, but simultaneously indicated strong grounds fora mutually hurting stalemate developing in the near future. Finally, the study identified fourdifferent obstacles for successful mediation between Russia and Ukraine. These related to theexistence of a mutually hurting stalemate, the motivations of the two conflict parties, and thechallenge of developing a mutually enticing opportunity.

Title: Using Carrots to Bring Peace? Negotiation and Third Party Involvement Author: Martina Klimesova 284 p. (+references and appendices) March 2011 How to make peace? This dissertation answers what impact third party incentives have on peace negotiation, more specifically on negotiation strategies in internal armed conflicts based on self-determination grievances. This study further assesses when the ripest time for the employment of incentives is, and in what way external incentives have an impact on possible negotiation asymmetries. Incentives in the following negotiation processes were analyzed: GoSL-LTTE in Sri Lanka (Eelam, 2002-03; 2006), GoI-GAM in Indonesia (Aceh, 2000-03; 2005), and the GRP-MILF in the Philippines (Mindanao, 2001-08). The findings indicate that those third party incentives which are linked to the core conflict issues are most likely to have some impact on the negotiation, but that committed pro-process leadership by the conflicting parties is also a necessity. The research also indicated that third parties have only limited options in employing incentives that can have an impact on the core conflict issues; and that, in any case, they are rarely willing to pursue such options. Committed strong leadership, presence of ripeness (far more frequently stipulated by an MHS than MEO),...