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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

AvaliaÃÃo de projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento de novos fÃrmacos via opÃÃes reais / Evaluation of research and development projects new drugs via real options

Ana FlÃvia Paiva Rodrigues 15 February 2012 (has links)
nÃo hà / Os mÃtodos clÃssicos de avaliaÃÃo de projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento sÃo baseados em fluxos de caixa descontados a uma taxa ajustada ao risco. No caso especÃfico da pesquisa e desenvolvimento de novos fÃrmacos, estes mÃtodos subestimam o valor do projeto por nÃo considerarem as decisÃes gerenciais ou tÃcnicas que surgem naturalmente ao longo das fases do processo de investigaÃÃo do composto. PropÃe-se, entÃo, a utilizaÃÃo da teoria de opÃÃes reais, segundo a vertente desenvolvida por Copeland e Antikarov, para a avaliaÃÃo desses projetos. Para a modelagem, sÃo utilizados dados sobre custos e retornos expostos em artigos de J. DiMasi e colaboradores (2002, 2003) e obtidos a partir de instituiÃÃes vinculadas a indÃstria farmacÃutica. Conclui-se que a incorporaÃÃo das decisÃes administrativas e a adequada mensuraÃÃo dos riscos em cada fase do projeto aumentam consideravelmente seu valor presente lÃquido. / Classical methods for project valuation are based on discounted cash flows at a risk adjusted rate. In what concerns research and development of new drugs, it results that these methods undervalue the project since technical/managerial flexibility along the project lifetime is not taken in account. In view of this, it is proposed to apply the real options theory - according Copeland and Antikarovâs approach - to valuate such projects. Several specialized research articles, reports and panels particularly those ones authored by DiMasi and collaborators (2002, 2003) were used for modeling pharmaceutical R&D costs and revenues. It follows that incorporating management decisions as well as the private risks of the project to the analysis yields a remarkably higher net present value.

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