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This thesis reviews the literature on “new terrorism,” to be differentiated from the “old terrorism.” The study tests two hypotheses. First, has an increase in religiously inspired terrorist groups led to an increase in terrorism's lethality? Second, does suicide bombing as a tactic explain the increased lethality of “new terrorism”? The study demonstrates three findings. First, it was found that religiously inspired terrorist groups are more lethal, though not more indiscriminate. Second, that suicide bombing has had a significant effect on the number of terrorist related fatalities. And, third, that non-religious suicide bombing is more lethal than its religious counterpart. To test these hypotheses I used Ordinary Least Squares Regression and data provided by The International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism.

Much of the first generation literature on counter terrorist financing made sweeping generalisations and observations regarding these interventions based on relatively limited case study data. Given that the UK approach to counter terrorism clearly attests to the symbiosis between terrorism and money, this thesis evaluates the contemporary relevance of Cicero's aphorism that “the sinews of war are infinite money.” Drawing on a series of discussions and formal interviews with CTF practitioners into several of the most recent high profile terror attacks in the United Kingdom, it confirms a notable shift in terrorist financing methodology in recent years and underscores the trend towards increasing operational independence and financial autonomy. It thus considers the continuing centrality of money in the terrorism equation and has been framed specifically to examine the financing challenges posed by domestic terror cells in the UK, given the trend towards low cost terrorism with its emphasis on self sufficiency and the emergence of more discreet and ‘criminally sterile' funding methodologies. This thesis is primarily concerned with reviewing the efficacy of the UK counter terrorism-financing (CTF) model as perceived by practitioners, both in policy terms and in the context of operational outcomes. The increasing emphasis on new funding methodologies and the ensuing lack of visibility and opportunities for interdiction at the conspiracy phase of terrorist plots, further highlights the operational challenges posed for practitioners in confronting these ‘new' threats. As such, this research encourages several new perspectives, including a review of UK corporate knowledge on previous CTF interventions and consideration of military ‘threat finance' practice to deliver greater operational impact. In particular, it advocates a new focus on micro CTF interventions to address changes in the ‘economy of terror'. Finally, this thesis strongly attests to the continued relevance of finance or more specifically, the 'financial footprint' to inform and provide intelligence insight for counter terrorism responses generally. In doing so, it also considers the impact on privacy from increasingly intrusive financial and digital data collection and the trade-offs that inevitably emerge when liberty and security collide.

Bibliography / Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research paper offers an analysis of new terrorism as a concept for analysis in Political Risk. In order to assess the novelty and value of new terrorism it is juxtaposed with old terrorism. This analysis uses a historical comparative method in which three terrorist groups, within two distinct historical periods, are discussed and compared. The first historical period is 1945-2000 and assesses old terrorism through a descriptive assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah. The second historical period, 2001-2009, provides a descriptive assessment of al-Qaeda. The primary variables for analysis with regards to the terrorist groups selected herein are goals, targets and tactics. Also discussed is the secondary variable structure. A number of key findings indicate that there are more similarities than there are differences between old and new terrorism. The novelty and value of new terrorism is thus limited as a concept for analysis within Political Risk Analysis. The conclusion of this research paper establishes that for a normative conceptualisation of terrorism to exist, and have value, it must consider both old and new terrorism. This normative understanding of terrorism better serves the purpose of mitigation within the sphere of Political Risk Analysis. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie bied .n ontleding van nuwe terrorisme as .n begrip vir ontleding in Politieke Risiko. Ten einde die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme te evalueer, word dit naas ou terrorisme gestel. Hierdie ontleding gebruik .n histories-vergelykende metode waarin drie terroristegroepe, in twee afsonderlike historiese tydperke, bespreek en vergelyk word. Die eerste historiese tydperk strek van 1945.2000 en evalueer ou terrorisme met behulp van .n beskrywende evaluering van die Moslem Broederskap en Hezbollah. Die tweede historiese tydperk, 2001.2009, bied .n beskrywende evaluering van al-Qaeda. Die primere veranderlikes vir ontleding met betrekking tot die terroristegroepe wat hierin aangewys is, is doelstellings, teikens en taktiek. Verder word die sekondere veranderlike struktuur bespreek. .n Aantal belangrike bevindinge dui daarop dat daar meer ooreenkomste as verskille tussen ou en nuwe terrorisme bestaan. Die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme het dus beperkinge vir ontleding as .n begrip in Politieke Risiko-ontleding. Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie studie dui dus daarop dat, vir .n normatiewe konseptualisering van terrorisme om te bestaan, en ook waarde te he, dit beide ou en nuwe terrorisme in berekening moet bring. Hierdie normatiewe begrip van terrorisme dien die doel van tempering binne die sfeer van Politieke Risiko-ontleding beter.

The objective of this study is to investigate trends in international terrorism since the end of the Cold War, including those identified as “new” terrorism and to determine to what extent these are applicable to the Al-Qaeda movement. To achieve this aim, the study focused on aspects such as the origin and development of new terrorism; the differences and resemblances between traditional and new terrorism; the historical development of international terrorism; the effect of the end of the Cold War on terrorism; and factors impacting on contemporary terrorism. An analysis of the Al-Qaeda movement was done with respect to its motivation, ideology, transnational character, target selection, operational strategy and tactics, and its desire to use non-conventional weapons. The intention was to identify aspects which may indicate whether the movement serves as a model of the characteristics identified by certain authors as a new terrorism. Case studies of the most important terrorist incidents linked to Al-Qaeda, including the September 11 attacks on the US, are included. The study demonstrates that the nature of terrorism as an instrument to obtain political objectives has evolved but, at the same time, it has retained most of its essential characteristics. An investigation of the characteristics of traditional and new terrorism confirmed this conclusion, as well as that a differentiation between these types of terrorism is mostly a matter of perspective. Another finding of the study is that terrorist campaigns have rarely obtained their strategic goals but that it nevertheless remains a popular strategy aimed at effecting desired political change. The study furthermore confirms that terrorist groups do not operate in a vacuum but are influenced by the existing political, socio-economic and cultural environments. As such the end of the Cold War has caused specific changes in the international system which facilitated the rise of a movement like Al-Qaeda and which enabled it to function at a global level. The usefulness of the study lies in the clarification of the concepts of traditional and new terrorism; its indication of the evolving of motivations and strategies applied by terrorist organisations; and in the findings about the current campaign of the Al-Qaeda movement. Copyright 2007, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. Please cite as follows: Bester, F 2007, New trends in contemporary international and transnational terrorism as manifested in the Al-Qaeda movement, MSS dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04112008-125925/ > / Dissertation (MSS)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Political Sciences / unrestricted