Thesis (Ph.D.)--Virginia Commonwealth University, 2009. / Prepared for: Dept. of Public Policy and Administration. Title from title-page of electronic thesis. Bibliography: leaves 230-254.

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The objectives of the study are to: (1) Critically analyse the 1959 Nile River agreements from a human rights perspective (2) examine the applicability of international human rights law in water distribution and use and (3) investigating how human rights norms and principles can be used, if at all, as a means of solving water conflicts over the use of trans-boundary rivers. The study adopts a human rights approach in its consideration of the problem of conflicts that may arise in connection with the use of trans-boundary rivers. It is particularly significant as it seeks to explore the solution from the human rights of the people in the riparian countries. It is believed that the study will contribute to the development of basin-wide cooperation among riparians by being employed in negotiations and planning of projects. / Thesis (LLM (Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Law University of Pretoria, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Law (LLM in Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa). Prepared under the supervision of Dr Raymond A. Atuguba of the Faculty of Law, University of Ghana Legon, Accra, Ghana / http://www.chr.up.ac.za/ / Centre for Human Rights / LLM

The countries of the Nile Basin are on a collision course that could result in disastrous military action to determine control of the region’s main water source. In the wake of the Arab Spring, the Egyptian government has lost much of the regional clout that allowed it to maintain it’s ‘lion’s share’ of the Nile as outlined by the 1959 agreement. Population and economic growth in upstream countries, specifically Ethiopia, have resulted in intensified calls for a more equitable water-sharing agreement. Just weeks after Mubarak stepped down, Ethiopia unveiled plans to build the Grand Renaissance Dam. The GRD will significantly reduce the water that reaches Egypt’s borders but will significantly increase Ethiopia’s hydroelectric power and irrigation potential. Egypt’s population and agriculture sector rely heavily on the maintenance of this status quo; the country also faces the mounting effects of climate change, rising food prices and immense population growth. In order to avoid a severe water crisis, Egypt must be proactive and look to improve efficiency within its own borders. This paper will examine the inadequacies of Egypt’s agricultural and irrigation sectors. It will then use examples from Mexico’s successful irrigation reform and advocate a shift of control to local Water User Associations. Other domestic and basin-wide efforts to increase water-use efficiency will also be examined.

The goal of this study was to explore the relationship between pluralist structures and involvement in decision-making of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). To establish this relationship the study asked two primary questions: What are the characteristics of power structures of the NBI as they relate to stakeholder involvement in Ethiopia? For those not involved in the decision-making process, what constraints prevent them from getting a ‘seat at the table’?” Two secondary questions were also asked: Do the power structure characteristics in Ethiopia relate to pluralism and, if so, how? To what extent are conditions in Ethiopia compatible with the prerequisites of pluralism? The study focused on one issue-area, the Water Resources Planning and Management Project. Qualitative data were collected primarily from NGOs in Ethiopia during the month of December, 2008. Background information was collected in Entebbe, Uganda, the home to the NBI Secretariat. Data sources included in-depth key informant interviews (n=30), archival, geographical, historical, and scientific accounts. The findings show that 1) the characteristics of power structures of the Nile Basin Initiative in Ethiopia are both pluralistic and elitist; 2) the level of involvement in the Water Resources Planning and Management Project by nongovernmental stakeholders is low; 3) the framework for involvement is limited and restricted to invitations to selected meetings in which the role of the NGOs is that of the observer; 4) political factors are the leading constraints to involvement, followed by lack of capacity of the NGOs and the NBI, structural limitations, and lack of information and awareness. The study concludes that, even though there is consistent theoretical link between pluralist structures and stakeholder involvement, the mere presence of pluralist structures does not guarantee involvement. It all depends on how well those structures function. The findings thus leads this study to hypothesize that the pluralist structures and elite power structures exist side by side, at least in the context of Ethiopia. Through the pluralist structures, organized groups are formally recognized while the elite power structures determine the process and who makes the decisions.

This thesis argues that state-building in Sudan in the modern era cannot be understood without a multilevel analysis of the links between water, civilisation and power. More particularly, it focuses on the hydropolitical economy of the Al-Ingaz Revolution since its launch in 1989. I analyse the efforts by Sudan's military-Islamist leaders at material and immaterial transformation of society through visions of hydro-engineering civilisation. “Economic Salvation” -the rescue of Sudan’s economy through a “hydro-agricultural mission” that will create an ‘Islamic’ middle class- is central to this ideology. The hydro-agricultural mission is a revolutionary attempt at Islamist state-building through a hyper-ambitious Dam Programme and an Agricultural Revival in Sudan’s riverain core. It intends to entrench Al-Ingaz in power by delivering for those riverain constituencies and external partners on the Arabian Peninsula and in East Asia deemed critical to continued hegemony. This thesis is fundamentally about Islamist Sudan's hydropolitical economy, but makes broader contributions. First, it highlights how, far from being exceptional, the hydro-agricultural mission is deeply embedded in historical ways of thinking about water, civilisation and power in Sudan and the Nile Basin more broadly, echoing assumptions, policy prescriptions and logics of political control and high-modernist development that have been salient for almost 200 years. In the past, grand state-building projects, predicated on the dream of controlling the water to control the people, have been characterised by high levels of violence and developmental mirages in the desert. I show why, under military-Islamist rule, this experience is being repeated in Sudan. Second, this thesis is situated in wider debates in the early 21st century, with fears about resources crunches proliferating amidst rising global commodity prices and the impact of climate change. The idea that environmental scarcity, as an exogenous variable, is the main shaper of societies and their politics is enduring, but both theoretically and empirically misguided. Moreover, it has often been manipulated by elites in processes of power and wealth accumulation that reproduce the very societal and ecological problems they claim to be resolving. I argue that the links between water, civilisation and power in Sudan highlight not just the endogeneity of environmental scarcity to political-economic processes, but also the violent consequences of a modernist paradigm that is seen by ruling elites as both enlightened science and the route to hegemony while reproducing conflict at the local, national and regional level.

The government of Ethiopia has initialized an investment in the agricultural sector in order to secure food production for a growing population. The Koga Irrigation and Water Management Project is a pilot project and hopes are that crop production will double. Water quality is an important factor to meet these expectations. The aim of this study is to assess the irrigation water’s biological and chemical quality by using locally available methods and compare the results with international water quality standards pertaining to agricultural use as well as human and animal consumption. The water was sampled and analyzed for biological, chemical and physical parameters. The most important parameters were thermotolerant coliforms, electrical conductivity and turbidity. The first part of the thesis was a literature study dealing with the Koga project and the water use in the area. The second part focuses on 17 water samples that were taken within an individual command area: irrigation canals, fish pond and drinking water well. The samples were then analyzed at the water quality and treatment lab at the University of Bahir Dar. The results were compared to guideline values for livestock, crop, fish and human use recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). All water samples, including the drinking water from the groundwater well, were contaminated with thermotolerant coliforms and had a relatively high turbidity. Additionally, the irrigation water contained levels of boron which were higher than recommended for crop production. Electrical conductivity values were overall satisfactory. These results give only an idea of the overall water quality within the Koga Irrigation Project. More samples need to be taken in order to draw any concrete conclusions and provide any recommendations.

Summary Fresh water availability and distribution have been declining over time due to population increase, climate change and variability, emerging new demands due to economic growth, and changing consumption patterns. Spatial and temporal changes in environmental changes, such as climate and land use/cover (LULC) dynamics have an enormous impact on water availability. Food and energy security, urbanization and industrial growth, as well as climate change (CC) will pose critical challenges on water resources. Climate variability and change may affect both the supply and demand sides of the balance, and thus add to the challenges. Land-cover changes are vastly prominent in the developing countries that are characterized by agriculture-based economies and rapidly increasing human population. The consequent changes in water availability and increase in per capita water demand will adversely affect the food, water and energy security of those countries. Therefore, evaluating the response of the catchment to environmental changes is crucial in the critical part of the basin for sustainable water resource management and development. In particular, assessing the contribution of individual LULC classes to changes in water balance components is vital for effective water and land resource management, and for mitigation of climate change impacts. The dynamic water balance of a catchment is analyzed by hydrological models that consider spatio-temporal catchment characteristics. As a result, hydrological models have become indispensable tools for the study of hydrological processes and the impacts of environmental stressors on the hydrologic system. Physically-based distributed hydrological models are able to explicitly account for the spatial variability of hydrological process, catchment characteristics such as climatic parameters, and land use/cover changes. For improved illustration of physical processes in space and time, the distributed hydrological models need serially complete and homogenized rainfall and temperature data. However, observed rainfall and temperature data are neither serially complete nor homogeneous, particularly in developing countries. Using inhomogeneous climatological data inputs to hydrological models affects the output magnitude of climate and land use/cover change impacts and, hence, climate change adaptation. The Nile River Basin, one of the transboundary river flows through 11 riparian states, serves the livelihoods of millions of people in the basin (nearly 20 per cent of the African population) and covers one-tenth of the land cover of Africa. The basin is characterized by high population growth and high temporal variability in the river flow and rainfall patterns. The Blue Nile river basin, which contributes 62% of the annual main Nile flow, has faced serious land degradation. This has led to increased soil erosion and loss of soil fertility. The most overwhelming challenge that the basin faces is food insecurity caused by subsistence farming and rain-fed agriculture (over 70% of the basin’s population), together with high rainfall variability. Drought and floods are also critical issues in the Blue Nile basin, with the potential for exacerbation by environmental changes. Understanding how LULC and climate changes influence basin hydrology will therefore enable decision makers to introduce policies aimed at reducing the detrimental effects of future environmental changes on water resources. Understanding types and impacts of major environmental stressors in representative and critical regions of the basin is crucial for developing of effective response strategies for sustainable land- and water-resource management in the Eastern Nile Basin in general, and at the Tana and Beles watersheds in particular. In this study, serially completed and homogenized rainfall and temperature dataset are maintained from 1980 to 2013 to fill-in the gap which characterized previous studies on trend analyses. The new hydroclimatic data revealed that the climate the study region has become wetter and warmer. The proportional contribution of main rainy season rainfall to annual total rainfall has increased. This might result in high runoff and ultimately flooding as well as erosion and sedimentation in the source region of the Blue Nile, and siltation in the downstream reservoirs unless soil and water conservation measures are taking place. In the Tana sub-basin, it is found that expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub are the major contributors to the rise in surface run-off and to the decline in the groundwater component from 1986 to 2010. Similarly, decline of woodland and expansion of cultivation land are found to be the major contributors to the increase in surface run-off and water yield. They also contributed to the decrease in groundwater and actual evapotranspiration components in the Beles watershed. Increased run-off and reduced baseflow and actual evapotranspiration would have negative impacts on water resources, especially in relation to erosion and sedimentation in the upper Blue Nile River Basin. As a result, expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub/woodland appear to be major environmental stressors affecting local water resources. GCMs simulated near-future annual total rainfall and average temperature were used to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment to near-future CC. The results showed an increase in streamflow in the annual and the main rainy season, but decrease in the dry period when compared to the baseline period. Catchment response for future LULC scenario showed opposite effect to that of near-future CC. The combined effects of climate change and LULC dynamics can be quite different from the effects resulting from LULC or CC alone. At the outlet of the Tana watershed, streamflow response is amplified under concurrent land cover and climate change scenarios compared to the baseline scenario; but the streamflow has an augmenting response at the outlet of the Beles watershed under future climate change and land use scenarios compared to that of current period. The important inference from these findings is that it could be possible to alleviate intense floods or droughts due to future climate change by planning LULC to achieve particular hydrological effects of land cover in the basin. Continuing expansion of cultivation land and decrease in natural vegetation, coupled with increased rainfall due to climate change, would result in high surface runoff in the main rainy season, which would subsequently increase flooding, erosion and sedimentation in already degraded lands. Sound mitigation measures should therefore be applied to reduce these adverse environmental consequences. On the other hand, the simulated climate and land-use change impacts on the Tana watershed hydrological regime might increase the availability of streamflow to be harnessed by water-storage structures. In conclusion, the present study has developed an innovative approach to identify the major environmental stressors of critical source region of the Blue Nile River in order to effectively managing the water resources and climate risk. Understanding the catchment responses to environmental changes improves sustainability of the water resources management particularly given that the hydropower and the irrigation schemes are recently established for energy and food security.:TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES 1. General Introduction 2. The study area 3. Gap Filling and Homogenization of Climatological Datasets in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Abstract 3.1. Introduction 3.1.1. Data 3.2. Methodology 3.2.1. Quality control and gap filling 3.2.2. Homogenization 3.3. Results and Discussion 3.3.1. Gap filling 3.3.2. Homogeneity 3.3.3. Verification of the homogenization 3.3.4. Impact of homogenization on the rainfall and temperature series 3.4. Conclusions Acknowledgements 4. Revisiting trend analysis of hydroclimatic data in the Upper Blue Nile basin based on homogenized data Abstract 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data and Methodology 4. 2.1 Data 4. 2.2 Linear trend 4. 2.3 Trend magnitude 4.3 Results and Discussions 4.3.1. Linear mean climate trends 4.3.1.1. Rainfall 4.3.1.2. Maximum Temperature (Tmax) 4.3.1.3. Minimum Temperature (Tmin) 4.3.1.4. Mean temperature (Tmean) 4.3.1.5. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) 4.3.1.6. Streamflow 4.3.2. Effect of homogenization on Tmax, Tmin, Tmean and DTR linear trends 4.3.3. Linear extreme climate trends 4.3.1. Temperature 4.3.2. Precipitation 4.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 5. Recent Changes in Land Use/Cover in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia 85 Abstract 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Materials and Methods 5.2.1 Data used and image pre-processing 5.2.2 Classification accuracy assessment 5.2.3 Extent and rate of change 5.2.4 Detecting the most systematic transitions (dominant signals of change) 5.4 Results and Discussion 5.4.1 Accuracy assessment 5.4.2 Extent and rate of LULC changes 5.4.3 Rate of land use and land cover change 5.4.4 Detection of most systematic transitions 5.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 6. Hydrological Responses to Land use/cover Changes in the Tana and Beles Watersheds, the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Method 6.2.1 Hydrological modeling 6.2.2 Partial least squares regression 6.3 Results and Discussion 6.3.1 Calibration and validation of SWAT 6.3.2 Impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at the basin scale 6.3.3 Contribution of changes in individual LULCs to hydrological components 6.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 7. Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Hydrology in the Tana and Beles Sub-Basins, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Methodology 7.2.1 Simulation 7.2.2 Climate change scenarios 7.2.3 LULC change scenarios 7.3 Results and Discussion 7.3.1 Future versus current LULC impact on the basin hydrology 7.3.2 Future versus baseline climate 7.3.3 Impact of combined future climate and LULC changes on hydrology 7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations 7.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 8. Overall Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Research Directions 8.1. Overall Conclusions 8.2 Recommendations and Directions for further research References