京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22266号 / 理博第4580号 / 新制||理||1658(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 田上 高広, 教授 山路 敦, 教授 生形 貴男 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

abstract: The movement between tectonic plates is accommodated through brittle (elastic) displacement on the plate boundary faults and ductile permanent deformation on the fault borderland. The elastic displacement along the fault can occur in the form of either large seismic events or aseismic slip, known as fault creep. Fault creep mainly occurs at the deep ductile portion of the crust, where the temperature is high. Nonetheless, aseismic creep can also occur on the shallow brittle portion of the fault segments that are characterized by frictionally weak material, elevated pore fluid pressure, or geometrical complexity. Creeping segments are assumed to safely release the accumulated strain(Kodaira et al., 2004; Rice, 1992)(Kodaira et al., 2004; Rice, 1992)(Kodaira et al., 2004; Rice, 1992)(Kodaira et al., 2004; Rice, 1992)(Kodaira et al., 2004; Rice, 1992) on the fault and also impede propagation of the seismic rupture. The rate of aseismic slip on creeping faults, however, might not be steady in time and instead consist of successive periods of acceleration and deceleration, known as slow slip events (SSEs). SSEs, which aseismically release the strain energy over a period of days to months, rather than the seconds to minutes characteristic of a typical earthquake, have been interpreted as earthquake precursors and as possible triggering factor for major earthquakes. Therefore, understanding the partitioning of seismic and aseismic fault slip and evolution of creep is fundamental to constraining the fault earthquake potential and improving operational seismic hazard models. Thanks to advances in tectonic geodesy, it is now possible to detect the fault movement in high spatiotemporal resolution and develop kinematic models of the creep evolution on the fault to determine the budget of seismic and aseismic slip. In this dissertation, I measure the decades-long time evolution of fault-related crustal deformation along the San Andrea Fault in California and the northeast Japan subduction zone using space-borne geodetic techniques, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The surface observation of deformation combined with seismic data set allow constraining the time series of creep distribution on the fault surface at seismogenic depth. The obtained time-dependent kinematic models reveal that creep in both study areas evolves through a series of SSEs, each lasting for several months. Using physics-based models informed by laboratory experiments, I show that the transient elevation of pore fluid pressure is the driving mechanism of SSEs. I further investigate the link between SSEs and evolution of seismicity on neighboring locked segments, which has implications for seismic hazard models and also provides insights into the pattern of microstructure on the fault surface. I conclude that while creeping segments act as seismic rupture barriers, SSEs on these zones might promote seismicity on adjacent seismogenic segments, thus change the short-term earthquake forecast. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geological Sciences 2018

The state of stress in forearc regions depends on the balance of two competing factors: the plate coupling force that generates margin-normal compression, and the gravitational force, that generates margin-normal tension. Widespread reversal of the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake indicate a reversal in the dominant state of stress of the forearc, from compressive before the earthquake to tensional afterwards. This implies that the plate coupling force dominated before the earthquake, and that the coseismic weakening of the fault lowered the amount of stress exerted on the forearc, such that the gravitational force became dominant in the post-seismic period. This change requires that the average stress drop along the fault represents a significant portion of the fault strength. Two cases are possible: (1) The fault was strong and the stress drop was large or nearly-complete (e.g. from 50 MPa to 10 MPa), or (2) that the fault was weak and the stress drop was small (e.g. from 15 MPa to 10 MPa). The first option appears to be consistent with the dramatic weakening associated with high-rate rock friction experiments, while the second option is consistent with seismological observations that large earthquakes are characterized by low average stress drops. In this work, we demonstrate that the second option is correct. A very weak fault, represented by an apparent coefficient of friction of 0.032, is sufficient to put the Japan Trench forearc into margin-normal compression. Lowering this value by ~0.01 causes the reversal of the state of stress as observed after the earthquake. A slightly stronger fault, with a strength of 0.045, does not agree well with the observed spatial extent of normal faulting for the same coseismic reduction in strength. We also calculate distributions of stress change on the fault and average stress drop values for the Tohoku-oki earthquake, as predicted from 20 published rupture models which were constrained by seismic, tsunami, and geodetic data. Our results reconcile seismic observations that average stress drops for large megathrust events are low with laboratory work on high-rate weakening that predicts very high or complete stress drop. We find that, in all rupture models, regions of high stress drop (20 – 55 MPa) are probably indicative of dynamic weakening during seismic slip, but that the heterogeneous nature of fault slip does not allow these regions to become widespread. Also, coseismic stress increase on the fault occurs in many parts of the fault, including parts of the area that experienced high slip (> 30 m). These two factors ensure that the average stress drop remains low (< 5 MPa). The low average stress drop during the Tohoku earthquake, consistent with values reported for other large earthquakes, makes it unambiguous that the Japan Trench megathrust is very weak. / Graduate