The west coast of North America is under the threat of future great megathrust earthquakes and associated tsunamis. This dissertation addresses three urgent but unresolved issues in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation at northernmost Cascadia. (1) Plate subduction is actively taking place along the Explorer segment of the northern Cascadia subduction zone and probably also its Winona fragment, and therefore their seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential should be investigated. (2) It needs to be investigated whether the shallowest portion of the Cascadia megathrust can undergo highly tsunamigenic trench-breaching rupture in great earthquakes like in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake at the Japan Trench. (3) For tsunami hazard assessment and early warning in southwestern British Columbia, high-resolution megathrust rupture models need to be systematically developed. To address the first issue, I develop finite element models for the Explorer segment to estimate thermally allowed potential seismic rupture zone of the megathrust. The results suggest a potential rupture zone of ~60 km downdip width located offshore. For the Winona fragment, where there are large uncertainties in the tectonic history and the age of the oceanic lithosphere, a preliminary estimate by considering only the thermal effect of sedimentation on a cooling lithosphere suggests a potential rupture zone of a minimum downdip width of 35 km. I address the second issue by reanalyzing seismic survey images off Vancouver Island with a focus on secondary faults around the accretionary wedge deformation front. No strong evidence suggests trench-breaching megathrust rupture being a dominant mode of fault behaviour at northern Cascadia, although the possibility cannot be excluded from tsunami hazard assessment. Buried rupture and coseismic activation of secondary faults may be more important at Cascadia. To address the third issue and also to investigate how the different secondary faults can contribute to tsunami generation, I compile a new Cascadia megathrust geometry and develop 21 tsunami sources using a three-dimensional (3D) dislocation model, including hypothetical models of frontal thrust, back-thrust, and splay faults. The dislocation models indicate that the buried rupture, splay-faulting rupture, and trench-breaching rupture can result in large seafloor uplift and coastal subsidence, and hence will lead to tsunamis that seriously affect the local coastal area. Back-thrust rupture near the deformation front is unimportant for tsunami generation. The model results also show that properly configured land-based Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) monitoring can distinguish between ruptures along the Cascadia megathrust and along the strike-slip Nootka fault and between megathrust ruptures of difference strike lengths and therefore can effectively contribute to real-time tsunami early warning. However, the results also reveal that these land-based measurements are not sensitive to the slip behaviour of the shallow portion of the megathrust farther offshore, demonstrating urgent need for near-trench, seafloor observations. / Graduate / 0373 / gaodawei999@126.com

This dissertation explores the capability of dense seismic array data for imaging the rupture properties of earthquake sources using a method known as back-projection. Only within the past 10 or 15 years has implementation of the method become feasible through the development of large aperture seismic arrays such as the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network in Japan and the Transportable Array in the United States. Coincidentally, this buildup in data coverage has also been accompanied by a global cluster of giant earthquakes (Mw>8.0). Much of the material in this thesis is devoted to imaging the source complexity of these large events. In particular, evidence for rupture segmentation, dynamic triggering, and frequency dependent energy release is presented. These observations have substantial implications for evaluating the seismic and tsunami hazards of future large earthquakes. In many cases, the details of the large ruptures can only be imaged by the back-projection method through the addition of different data sets and incorporating additional processing steps that enhance low-amplitude signals. These improvements to resolution can also be utilized to study much smaller events. This approach is taken for studying two very different types of earthquakes. First, a global study of the enigmatic intermediate-depth (100-300 km) earthquakes is performed. The results show that these events commonly have sub-horizontal rupture planes and suggest dynamic triggering of multiple sub-events. From these observations, a hypothesis for the generation of intermediate-depth events is proposed. Second, the early aftershock sequences of the 2004 Mw 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquakes are studied using the back-projection method. These analyses show that many events can be detected that are not in any local or global earthquake catalogues. In particular, the locations of aftershocks in the back-projection results of the 2011 Tohoku sequence fill in gaps in the aftershock distribution of the Japan Meteorological Agency catalogue. These results may change inferences of the behavior of the 2011 mainshock, as well as the nature of future seismicity in this region. In addition, the rupture areas of the largest aftershocks can be determined, and compared to the rupture area of the mainshock. For the Tohoku event, this comparison reveals that the aftershocks contribute significantly to the cumulative failure area of the subduction interface. This result implies that future megathrust events in this region can have larger magnitudes than the 2011 event. / Earth and Planetary Sciences

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22258号 / 理博第4572号 / 新制||理||1656(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 伊藤 喜宏, 教授 James Mori, 教授 岩田 知孝 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

In 1852, a five-minute long earthquake hit the Banda Arc region that was felt over most of Indonesia. It caused uplift of new islands and sent a tsunami across the Banda Sea that reached a height of 8 meters at Banda Neira and was also registered at Ambon, Saparua and other islands. Records of the 1852 earthquake at multiple locations provide the constraints needed to reconstruct the disastrous event through earthquake intensity analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami. Using tsunami heights and arrival times as the major constraints, best fit numerical models of the tsunami were constructed using Clawpack. These models indicate that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event along the Tanimbar Trough with a Mw of around 8.4. At least 10-15 meters of elastic strain energy has accumulated along the Tanimbar Through since the 1852 event, and the population in the region has increased exponentially. When another event occurs ≥ that in 1852, there will be many more people and treasure in harms way.

The state of stress in forearc regions depends on the balance of two competing factors: the plate coupling force that generates margin-normal compression, and the gravitational force, that generates margin-normal tension. Widespread reversal of the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake indicate a reversal in the dominant state of stress of the forearc, from compressive before the earthquake to tensional afterwards. This implies that the plate coupling force dominated before the earthquake, and that the coseismic weakening of the fault lowered the amount of stress exerted on the forearc, such that the gravitational force became dominant in the post-seismic period. This change requires that the average stress drop along the fault represents a significant portion of the fault strength. Two cases are possible: (1) The fault was strong and the stress drop was large or nearly-complete (e.g. from 50 MPa to 10 MPa), or (2) that the fault was weak and the stress drop was small (e.g. from 15 MPa to 10 MPa). The first option appears to be consistent with the dramatic weakening associated with high-rate rock friction experiments, while the second option is consistent with seismological observations that large earthquakes are characterized by low average stress drops. In this work, we demonstrate that the second option is correct. A very weak fault, represented by an apparent coefficient of friction of 0.032, is sufficient to put the Japan Trench forearc into margin-normal compression. Lowering this value by ~0.01 causes the reversal of the state of stress as observed after the earthquake. A slightly stronger fault, with a strength of 0.045, does not agree well with the observed spatial extent of normal faulting for the same coseismic reduction in strength. We also calculate distributions of stress change on the fault and average stress drop values for the Tohoku-oki earthquake, as predicted from 20 published rupture models which were constrained by seismic, tsunami, and geodetic data. Our results reconcile seismic observations that average stress drops for large megathrust events are low with laboratory work on high-rate weakening that predicts very high or complete stress drop. We find that, in all rupture models, regions of high stress drop (20 – 55 MPa) are probably indicative of dynamic weakening during seismic slip, but that the heterogeneous nature of fault slip does not allow these regions to become widespread. Also, coseismic stress increase on the fault occurs in many parts of the fault, including parts of the area that experienced high slip (> 30 m). These two factors ensure that the average stress drop remains low (< 5 MPa). The low average stress drop during the Tohoku earthquake, consistent with values reported for other large earthquakes, makes it unambiguous that the Japan Trench megathrust is very weak. / Graduate

La zone de subduction Hellénique, en Méditerranée orientale, est caractérisée par le taux de sismicité le plus important d’Europe. Des séismes de forte magnitude (Mw 7,5-8) ont eu lieu le long du segment Sud-Ouest de la zone de subduction Hellénique, au large du Péloponnèse, au cours du 19ème et 20ème siècle. Ce segment de 400 km de long a également été le lieu de nucléation du plus important séisme d’Europe, en 365 ap J.C, avec une magnitude supérieure à 8, ayant entraîné un tsunami dévastateur. Deux principaux modèles scientifiques s’opposent sur la question du couplage sismique de l’interface de subduction, allant d’un couplage sismique total au niveau de l’interface, à l’hypothèse opposée d’un couplage quasi inexistant. Cependant, ces modèles opposés considèrent des géométries approximatives et parfois extrêmes, fautes de contraintes disponibles sur la structure et la géométrie de l’interplaque sous l’avant-arc dans cette zone. La localisation de la faille responsable du séisme de 365 ap J.C est également débattue, en l’absence de données géophysiques permettant d’identifier les interfaces potentiellement responsables de cet événement dévastateur. La faille de méga-chevauchement et le domaine avant-arc du segment Sud-Ouest de l’arc Hellénique ont été l’objet d’étude de la campagne océanographique Ulysse en Novembre 2012 afin de déterminer la géométrie des structures et unités majeures dans cette portion de la zone de subduction, mais également d’apporter un éclairage sur la tectonique récente qui affecte cette zone / The Hellenic subduction zone, in the eastern part of the Mediterranean sea, is characterized by the highest rate of current seismicity in Europe. In the southwestern segment, several earthquakes of large magnitude (Mw 7,5-8) occured a the turn of the 19th to 20th century. This segment of 400 km long, has also been the nucleation site of the largest historical earthquake in Europe, named the 365 AD earthquake, with a magnitude of Mw 8. This event generates a devastating tsunami, which spread along the Adriactic Sea and in the Nile Delta region. Two main models differ about the interplate seismic coupling question in this region, from a total seismic coupling at the interplate, at the opposite assumption of a very weak seismic coupling. However, these opposing models consider an approximate geometry, mostly because of the lack of information available on the geometry and the localization of the interplate in this region of the forearc domain. The localization of the fault responsible of the 365 AD event is also debated, because, there is no available data who provides imagery of the interfaces potentially responsible of this devastating earthquake. The megathrust fault and the forearc domain of the southwestern segment of the Hellenic subduction zone has been the target of the Ulysse marine survey in November 2012. The aim of this survey was to provide information of the structural geometry of the main units in this part of the subduction zone, and to bring information on the recent tectonic activity in this region

At the northern extent of the Cascadia subduction zone, the subducting Explorer and Juan de Fuca plates interact across a translational deformation zone, known as the Nootka fault zone. The Seafloor Earthquake Array Japan-Canada Cascadia Experiment (SeaJade) was designed to study this region. In two parts (SeaJade I and II, deployed from July – September 2010 and January – September 2014), seismic data from the SeaJade project has led to several important discoveries. Hypocenter distributions from SeaJade I and II indicate primary and secondary conjugate faults within the Nootka fault zone. Converted phase analysis and jointly determined seismic tomography with double-difference relocated hypocenters provide evidence to several velocity-contrasting interfaces seaward of the Cascadia subduction front at depths of ~4-6 km, ~6-9 km, ~11-14 km, and ~14-18 km, which have been interpreted as the top of the oceanic crust, upper/lower crust boundary, oceanic Moho, and the base of the highly fractured and seawater/mineral enriched veins within oceanic mantle. During SeaJade II, a MW 6.4 mainshock and subsequent aftershocks, known as the Nootka Sequence, highlighted a previously unidentified fault within the subducted Explorer plate. This fault reflects the geometry of the subducting plate, showing downward bending of the plate toward the northwest. This plate bend can be attributed to negative buoyancy from margin parallel mantle flow induced by intraslab tearing further northwest. Seismic tomography reinforces the conclusions drawn from the Nootka Sequence hypocenter distribution. Earthquakes from the entire SeaJade II catalogue reveal possible rotated paleo-faults, identifying the former extent of the Nootka fault zone from ~3.5 Ma. / Graduate