The objective of this study is to quantify the accuracy of two engineering models for dune erosion (SBEACH and EDUNE), and to determine which of the two models is best suited for predicting barrier island vulnerability due to extreme storm events. The first model, SBEACH, computes sediment transport using empirically derived equations from two large wave tank experiments. The second model, EDUNE, theoretically relates excess wave energy dissipation in the surf zone to sediment transport. The first mechanism for model comparison is sensitivity testing, which describes the response of the model to empirical, physical, and hydrodynamic variables. Through sensitivity tests, it is possible to determine if responses to physical variables (e.g. grain size) and hydrodynamic variables (e.g. wave height) are consistent with theoretical expectations, and whether the function of each variable is properly specified within the governing equations. With respect to empirical parameters, model calibrations are performed on multiple study sites in order to determine whether or not the empirical parameters are properly constrained. Finally, error statistics are generated on four study sites in order to compare model accuracy. Cross-shore profiles of dune elevation are extracted from coastal lidar (light detecting and ranging) surveys flown before and after the impact of major storm events. Three study sites are taken from 1998 lidar surveys of Assateague Island, MD in response to two large northeasters that produced significant erosion along the Assateague shoreline. Two additional study sites are obtained from 2003 lidar surveys of Hatteras Island, NC in response to erosion caused by Hurricane Isabel. Error statistics generated on these study sites suggest that the models are statistically equivalent in their ability to hindcast dune erosion due to extreme storm events.

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-07-24T14:14:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 NIVALTER AIRES DOS SANTOS - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGCS) 2017.pdf: 3960223 bytes, checksum: 6a87f984c583012ab3a23a7aa30f5cf6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-24T14:14:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 NIVALTER AIRES DOS SANTOS - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGCS) 2017.pdf: 3960223 bytes, checksum: 6a87f984c583012ab3a23a7aa30f5cf6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-07 / Capes / Objetivamos com esse trabalho estudar os limites da Política Nacional de Desenvolvimento Regional dos governos petistas, com o duplo interesse de avaliar o alcance da política dentro do que ela se propõe e também mostrar os limites da própria política. Para atingir ao objetivo proposto, realizamos uma vasta revisão bibliográfica sobre aspectos diversos da questão regional brasileira e das políticas de desenvolvimento regional dos diferentes períodos – (1960-1985), (1985-2002) e (2003-2015) – mobilizando o referencial teórico para compreensão do movimento histórico. Atentando diretamente ao nosso objeto de investigação – as políticas de desenvolvimento regional dos governos petistas – fizemos uma leitura crítica dos documentos produzidos pelo Ministério da Integração Nacional com as propostas de política, além disso, fizemos um mapeamento em jornais eletrônicos em busca de informações atualizadas que nos pudesse dar pistas sobre o andamento dessas políticas e os dilemas políticos no âmbito do Ministério da Integração. Por fim um levantamento de dados de natureza econômica e social, como participação do PIB nordestino no PIB brasileiro, nível de desemprego, nível de analfabetismo, entre outros, num esforço de avaliar a efetividade dessas políticas, mapeando o que avançou e o que não saiu do papel. Os resultados da pesquisa nos mostram que as obras de ampliação e modernização da infraestrutura e logística regional de maneira geral têm estado em atraso e não têm cumprido o papel para o qual foram pensadas. Além disso, percebe-se falta de motivação, de interesse de classe para que a política se firme, a política macroeconômica adotada pelo governo, que atende aos interesses da fração hegemônica no bloco no poder – o grande capital financeiro internacional e nacional – impõe limites às políticas de desenvolvimento. E também, a aposta nas instituições para resolver os dilemas da população nordestina, impede que se perceba que a reprodução das condições de pobreza das classes subalternas está relacionada com a manutenção do poder das classes dominantes locais, e que o atraso nordestino faz parte do processo de desenvolvimento desigual do próprio capitalismo periférico, e sua relação com a divisão nacional do trabalho, e a divisão internacional do trabalho que o Brasil está submetido. / The objective of this work is to study the limits of the “Política Nacional de Desenvolvimento Regional” of the PT governments, with the double interest of evaluating the scope of the policy within which it proposes, and also show the limits of the policy itself. In order to reach the objective, we carried out a vast bibliographical review on different aspects of the Brazilian regional question and the regional development policies of the different periods mobilizing the theoretical reference for understanding the historical movement. Directly addressing our research object – the regional development policies of the PT governments – we have made a critical reading of the various documents produced by the Ministry of National Integration with the policy proposals. We also did an mapping in electronic newspapers in search of updated information that could give us clues about the progress of these policies, like the political dilemmas within the Ministry of Integration. And finally a survey of data of an economic and social nature, as well as Northeaster GDP in the Brazilian GDP, level of Unemployment, level of illiteracy, among others, in an effort to evaluate the effectiveness of these policies by mapping what has actually progressed and what has not left the paper. The results show us that the expansion and modernization of the infrastructure and regional logistics in general have been delayed and has not fulfilled the role for which they were intended. It is also perceived lack of motivation, of interest of classes for policy to be firm, the macroeconomic policy adopted by the government, serves the interests of the hegemonic fraction in the power bloc - the great international and national financial capital - imposes limits to the policies of development. And the belief in institutions to solve the dilemmas of the Northeaster population prevents the perception that the reproduction of the poverty conditions of the subaltern classes is related to the maintenance of the power of the local dominant classes and that the Northeaster backwardness is part of the process of uneven development of peripheral capitalism itself, and its relation to the national division of work, and the international division of work that Brazil is subjected to.