The classical problem of predicting the atmospheric circulation response to extratropical surface forcing is revisited in the context of the observed connection between autumn snow cover anomalies over Eurasia and the wintertime Northern Annular Mode (NAM). In general circulation model (GCM) simulations with prescribed autumn Siberian snow forcing, a vertically propagating Rossby wave train is generated, driving dynamical stratospheric warming and a negative NAM response that couples to the troposphere. It is shown that unexplained aspects of the evolution of this response can be clarified by examining the time evolution of the phasing, and hence the linear interference, between the wave response and the background climatological wave. When the wave response and background wave are in phase (out of phase), wave activity into the stratosphere is amplified (attenuated) and the zonal mean stratosphere-troposphere NAM response displays a negative (positive) tendency. This effect is probed further in a simplified GCM with imposed lower tropospheric cooling. As in the comprehensive GCM, linear interference strongly influences the NAM response. The transition from linear to nonlinear behaviour is shown to depend on forcing strength. Linear interference also plays a key role in the observed October Eurasian snow cover-NAM connection. It is shown that the time lag between October Eurasian snow anomalies and the peak wave activity flux arises because the Rossby wave train associated with the snow is out of phase with the climatological stationary wave from October to mid-November. Beginning in mid-November, the associated wave anomaly migrates into phase with the climatological wave, leading to constructive interference and anomalously positive upward wave activity fluxes. Current generation climate models do not capture this behaviour. Linear interference is not only associated with stratospheric warming due to Eurasian snow cover anomalies but is a general feature of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere interactions, and in particular dominated the negative NAM events of the fall-winter of 2009-2010. The interannual variability in upward wave activity flux during the season of strongest stratosphere-troposphere interactions is primarily determined by linear interference of quasi-stationary waves. The persistence of the linear interference component of this flux may help improve wintertime extratropical predictability.

The classical problem of predicting the atmospheric circulation response to extratropical surface forcing is revisited in the context of the observed connection between autumn snow cover anomalies over Eurasia and the wintertime Northern Annular Mode (NAM). In general circulation model (GCM) simulations with prescribed autumn Siberian snow forcing, a vertically propagating Rossby wave train is generated, driving dynamical stratospheric warming and a negative NAM response that couples to the troposphere. It is shown that unexplained aspects of the evolution of this response can be clarified by examining the time evolution of the phasing, and hence the linear interference, between the wave response and the background climatological wave. When the wave response and background wave are in phase (out of phase), wave activity into the stratosphere is amplified (attenuated) and the zonal mean stratosphere-troposphere NAM response displays a negative (positive) tendency. This effect is probed further in a simplified GCM with imposed lower tropospheric cooling. As in the comprehensive GCM, linear interference strongly influences the NAM response. The transition from linear to nonlinear behaviour is shown to depend on forcing strength. Linear interference also plays a key role in the observed October Eurasian snow cover-NAM connection. It is shown that the time lag between October Eurasian snow anomalies and the peak wave activity flux arises because the Rossby wave train associated with the snow is out of phase with the climatological stationary wave from October to mid-November. Beginning in mid-November, the associated wave anomaly migrates into phase with the climatological wave, leading to constructive interference and anomalously positive upward wave activity fluxes. Current generation climate models do not capture this behaviour. Linear interference is not only associated with stratospheric warming due to Eurasian snow cover anomalies but is a general feature of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere interactions, and in particular dominated the negative NAM events of the fall-winter of 2009-2010. The interannual variability in upward wave activity flux during the season of strongest stratosphere-troposphere interactions is primarily determined by linear interference of quasi-stationary waves. The persistence of the linear interference component of this flux may help improve wintertime extratropical predictability.

Abstract This thesis studies the long-term relation between the solar wind driven energetic particle forcing into the atmosphere and the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The work covers the period of more than one hundred years since the turn of the 20th century to present. The thesis makes a statistical analysis of satellite measurements of precipitating energetic electrons, sunspot number data and geomagnetic activity, and compares them with temperature and pressure measurements made at the Earth's surface. Recent results, both observational and from chemistry climate models, have indicated significant effects in the Earth's middle atmosphere due to the energetic electrons precipitating from the magnetosphere. These effects include the formation of reactive hydrogen and nitrogen oxides in the high latitude mesosphere and the depletion of ozone caused by them. Ozone is a radiatively active and important gas, which affects the thermal structure and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Accordingly, the depletion of ozone can intensify the large scale stratospheric circulation pattern called the polar vortex. Winter weather conditions on the surface have been shown to be dependent on the polar vortex strength. This thesis shows that there is a significant relation between the average fluxes of medium energy (ten to hundred keVs) precipitating electrons and surface temperatures in parts of the Northern Hemisphere in winter time. Temperatures are positively correlated with electron fluxes in North Eurasia and negatively correlated in Greenland during the period 1980-2010 which is covered by direct satellite observations of precipitating particles. This difference is especially notable when major sudden stratospheric warmings and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which both are known to affect the polar vortex strength, are taken into account. When extended to the late 19th century, the analysis shows that a similar temperature pattern is predominated during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. The high speed solar wind streams and energetic particle precipitation typically maximize also at the declining phase of the solar cycle. This specific temperature pattern is related to the variability of the northern annular mode (NAM), which is the most significant circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Before the space era, geomagnetic activity measured by ground observations can be used as a proxy for energetic particle precipitation. Earlier studies have found a significant positive correlation between geomagnetic activity and NAM since the 1960s. We find that, when the QBO measured at 30 hPa height is in the easterly phase, a positive correlation is extended to the beginning of 1900s. We also show that high geomagnetic activity causes a stronger effect in the Northern Hemisphere winter than high sunspot activity, especially in the Atlantic and Eurasia. A comprehensive knowledge of the Earth's climate system and all its drivers is crucial for the future projection of climate. Solar variability effects have been estimated to produce only a small factor to the global climate change. However, there is increasing evidence, including the results presented in this thesis, that the different forms of solar variability can have a substantial effect to regional and seasonal climate variability. With this new evidence, the solar wind related particle effects in the atmosphere are now gaining increasing attention. These effects will soon be included in the next coupled model inter comparison project (CMIP6) as an additional solar related climate effect. This emphasizes the relevance of this thesis.