The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon detected as anomalies in zonal winds, convection and cloudiness. This perturbation has a definitive timescale of about thirty to sixty days, allowing its signal to be extracted from background data. The Madden-Julian Oscillation originates over the western Indian Ocean and generates a convective region which moves east along the equatorial region. This perturbation is thought to contribute to the timing and intensity of the eastern hemisphere monsoons, the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation and tropical storms and cyclones. The current understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is that it restricts the bulk of its' influence to the tropics, however some evidence suggested that the impact is more extensive. Analysis of about 30 years of data showed significant modulation of rainfall by the equatorial passage of the MJO. The real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation Index was used to estimate the location and amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and forms the basis of the basic rainfall prediction tool developed. The method developed here clearly linked the low latitude passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with suppressed and enhanced rainfall events in the Australasian region and beyond. A rudimentary forecasting capability at the intraseasonal time scale has been developed suitable for assisting Australian agricultural sector. A subsequent and independent analysis of global mean sea level pressure anomalies provided evidence of teleconnections between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and higher latitude atmospheric entities. These anomalies confirm the existence of teleconnections capable of producing the rainfall pattern outputs. The MJO is strongly influenced by the season. However the seasonally dependant analysis of rainfall with respect to the Madden Julian Oscillation conducted was inconclusive, suggesting aspects of the MJO influence still require clarification. Considering the importance of rainfall variability to the Australian agricultural sector the forecasting tool developed, although basic, is significant.

This thesis deals with tropical intraseasonal variation (TISV) having time scales in 20-80 day range. Variations on this time scale have been observed to have profound influence on the weather and climate of the entire globe, and hence its study forms an important area of current research. A large number of studies have been carried out on this topic since the pioneering work of Madden and Julian in 1971. However, the observational studies are biased towards using the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) as the variable of interest, and other variables, pressure in particular, have received less attention. The present thesis explores features of intraseasonal variations in sea level pressure (SLP) with the following main objectives. 1. Compare and contrast wavenumber – frequency spectra of OLR, zonal winds and SLP. 2. Quantify temporal and spatial variations of different tropical modes observed in the above variables. 3. Investigate intraseasonal variations in sea level pressure in the tropics and its meridional connections. 4. Document the movement of cloud bands during the periods of high and low TISV activity during different seasons. 5. Explore the relations between intraseasonal variations in SLP and monsoon rainfall over India. The study considered global data for a time period of 25 years from 1979 to 2003. Spectral analysis and correlations are the main tools of analysis. A combined FFT-wavelet spectral method, which uses FFT in longitude and wavelet transform in time, was developed for this purpose. This method provided an effective way of obtaining wavenumber - frequency spectra as well as in quantifying temporal variations of different modes. The transform gives spectral intensity as a function of wavenumber, frequency and time. The analysis is applied to OLR, zonal wind and SLP to understand spectral characteristics of different modes and their temporal variations. The thesis shows that the nature of spectra for OLR, SLP and wind is different although these variables are physically connected. OLR spectrum shows many of the equatorial modes observed from the previous studies for an equivalent depth of 40 m. Spectra of zonal winds at three vertical levels (850 mb, 500 mb and 200 mb) shows peaks corresponding to MJO, Kelvin modes at an equivalent depth of 75 m and Rossby Haurwitz modes. SLP spectrum is different from others. It has peaks at wavenumber zero and at MJO and Rossby Haurwitz modes. Another important new result of the thesis is the spatial and temporal behavior of SLP on intraseasonal time scales. It is shown that the the global atmosphere exhibits quasi-periodic oscillations in SLP with variations in the tropics and high latitudes strongly correlated but in opposite phases. Importantly, the strength of TISV is correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This may have some predictive value for predicting the active and weak TISV activity.

Abstract This thesis studies the long-term relation between the solar wind driven energetic particle forcing into the atmosphere and the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The work covers the period of more than one hundred years since the turn of the 20th century to present. The thesis makes a statistical analysis of satellite measurements of precipitating energetic electrons, sunspot number data and geomagnetic activity, and compares them with temperature and pressure measurements made at the Earth's surface. Recent results, both observational and from chemistry climate models, have indicated significant effects in the Earth's middle atmosphere due to the energetic electrons precipitating from the magnetosphere. These effects include the formation of reactive hydrogen and nitrogen oxides in the high latitude mesosphere and the depletion of ozone caused by them. Ozone is a radiatively active and important gas, which affects the thermal structure and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Accordingly, the depletion of ozone can intensify the large scale stratospheric circulation pattern called the polar vortex. Winter weather conditions on the surface have been shown to be dependent on the polar vortex strength. This thesis shows that there is a significant relation between the average fluxes of medium energy (ten to hundred keVs) precipitating electrons and surface temperatures in parts of the Northern Hemisphere in winter time. Temperatures are positively correlated with electron fluxes in North Eurasia and negatively correlated in Greenland during the period 1980-2010 which is covered by direct satellite observations of precipitating particles. This difference is especially notable when major sudden stratospheric warmings and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which both are known to affect the polar vortex strength, are taken into account. When extended to the late 19th century, the analysis shows that a similar temperature pattern is predominated during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. The high speed solar wind streams and energetic particle precipitation typically maximize also at the declining phase of the solar cycle. This specific temperature pattern is related to the variability of the northern annular mode (NAM), which is the most significant circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Before the space era, geomagnetic activity measured by ground observations can be used as a proxy for energetic particle precipitation. Earlier studies have found a significant positive correlation between geomagnetic activity and NAM since the 1960s. We find that, when the QBO measured at 30 hPa height is in the easterly phase, a positive correlation is extended to the beginning of 1900s. We also show that high geomagnetic activity causes a stronger effect in the Northern Hemisphere winter than high sunspot activity, especially in the Atlantic and Eurasia. A comprehensive knowledge of the Earth's climate system and all its drivers is crucial for the future projection of climate. Solar variability effects have been estimated to produce only a small factor to the global climate change. However, there is increasing evidence, including the results presented in this thesis, that the different forms of solar variability can have a substantial effect to regional and seasonal climate variability. With this new evidence, the solar wind related particle effects in the atmosphere are now gaining increasing attention. These effects will soon be included in the next coupled model inter comparison project (CMIP6) as an additional solar related climate effect. This emphasizes the relevance of this thesis.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)