Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2007. / "March 2007." Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-81). Also available via the Internet.

The international community faces a growing threat from nuclear terrorism. The complexity of the threats of nuclear terrorism, the variety of nuclear security measures that States can devote resources towards to address the threats, and the limited resources States have to invest in these nuclear security measures make it imperative that resources are applied in the most effective way possible. In this dissertation, we develop a quantitative, risk-based methodology that States can employ to gain a better understanding of the nuclear threat they face, assist them in determining what nuclear security measures they should invest in, and facilitate communication to stake-holders to request and justify investment in these measures. The risk-based methodology has been developed employing a combination of pathways analysis, game-theory, multiple-attribute utility analysis, decision theory and risk analysis. The methodology was designed to account for the wide variety of nuclear security measures that States can invest in, the range of possible consequences from different nuclear threats, and the severity of these consequences to the State. In addition, the methodology models the adversary's strategic decision making while accounting for the capabilities, motivations, and disincentives that may influence which nuclear threat a terrorist group will attempt. The methodology is introduced into a Visual Basic for Applications code, which we demonstrate through verification and qualitative validation tests. We then develop three State nuclear infrastructures with varying levels of complexity, meant to provide a realistic representation of real-world States. We then utilize the code to evaluate the risk of nuclear terrorism against terrorist threats that have different motivations for nuclear terrorism to demonstrate how different motivations for nuclear terrorism may affect both State-level risk and the State's optimal risk-reduction strategy. These risk analyses are then used to both evaluate various nuclear security strategies and determine which nuclear security measures will have the greatest risk-reduction value. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis on capabilities of terrorist groups to understand how changes in these capabilities affect the State-level risk from nuclear terrorism.

Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation resistance assessment tools are critical to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that contribute to proliferation resistance. This work focuses on the diversion of nuclear material by a state and defers other threats such as theft or terrorism to future work. A new approach is presented that assesses the problem through four stages of proliferation: the diversion of nuclear material, the transportation of nuclear material from an internationally safeguarded nuclear facility to an undeclared facility, the transformation of material into a weapons-usable metal, and weapon fabrication. A complete and concise set of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes of the nation, facility and material that could impede proliferation are identified. Quantifiable inputs for each of these attributes are defined. For example, the difficulty of handling the diverted material is captured with inputs like mass and bulk, radiation dose, heating rate and others. Aggregating these measurements into an overall value for proliferation resistance can be done in multiple ways based on well-developed decision theory. A preliminary aggregation scheme is provided along with results obtained from analyzing a small spent fuel reprocessing plant to demonstrate quantification of the attributes and inputs. This quantification effort shows that the majority of the inputs presented are relatively straightforward to work with while a few are not. These few difficult inputs will only be useful in special cases where the analyst has access to privileged, detailed or classified information. The stages, attributes and inputs of proliferation presented in this work provide a foundation for proliferation resistance assessments which may use multiple types of aggregation schemes. The overall results of these assessments are useful in comparing nuclear technologies and aiding decisions about development and deployment of that technology.

Thesis (M.A. in International Security and Civil-Military Relations)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005. / Thesis Advisor(s): Donald Abenheim, Maria Rasmussen. Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-60). Also available online.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2006. / Title from first page of PDF file. Includes bibliographical references (p. 169-183).

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The rapidly growing threat to civilian populations from different terrorist organizations and nuclear states involved in regional conflicts require new unorthodox solutions. The purpose of this work is to analyze steps that have been taken on the European continent before and after September 11 in order to create a new, more efficient system of protection of the civilian population against CBRN terrorist attacks, and to explore NATO's role in the most problematic issues. The research examines what was done within NATO since 1998 by members of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in the field of improving population protection against the consequences of CBRN terrorist attacks in two dimensions: national and international. This evaluation leads to the argument that supports the importance of the creation of an international system of mutual assistance in case of CBRN terrorist attacks under NATO's leading role. / Lieutenant Colonel, Ministry for Emergencies of Ukraine

A random search optimization method based off an analogous process for the slow cooling of metals is explored and used to find the optimum solution for a number of regression models that analyze nuclear, radiological, biological,and chemical terrorism targets. A non-parametric simulation based off of historical data is also explored. Simulated series of 30 years and a 30 year extrapolation of historical data are provided. The inclusion of independent variables used in the regression analysis is based off existing work in the reviewed literature. CBRN terrorism data is collected from both the Monterey Institute's Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Database as well as from the START Global Terrorism Database. Building similar models to those found in the literature and running them against CBRN terrorism incidence data determines if conventional terrorism indicator variables are also significant predictors of CBRN terrorism targets. The negative binomial model was determined to be the best regression model available for the data analysis. Two general types of models are developed, including an economic development model and a political risk model. From the economic development model we find that national GDP, GDP per capita, trade openness, and democracy to significant indicators of CBRN terrorism targets. Additionally from the political risk model we find corrupt, stable, and democratic regimes more likely to experience a CBRN event. We do not find language/religious fractionalization to be a significant predictive variable. Similarly we do not find ethnic tensions, involvement in external conflict, or a military government to have significant predictive value.