Thesis (M.S.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1991. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-116). Also available via the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1990. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 173-193). Also available via the Internet.

Nuclear govemment-oversight-agency (GOA) managers face increasing numbers of strategic decisions with fewer people to support their strategic decision processes. There is an increasing need to find new means of strategic decision support for nuclear GOA managers. This exploratory research contributes toward meeting this need by: (1) developing a set of contextual models of strategic decision making that link mental activities with information needs; (2) deriving a methodology to study the characteristics of the information needed by nuclear GOA managers when formulating strategic problems; and (3) demonstrating the methodology's use in drawing implications for designing decision tools. The literature reviewed in the areas of management. strategic management, decision making, decision tools, and information characteristics formed the foundation for the development of three contextual models of individual, strategic decision making. The most detailed model. the Elementary Mental Activities Model, links the mental activities of strategic decision making with types of information, providing a perspective for strategic information. An experiment was designed to engage nuclear GOA managers in realistic, strategic decision situations. Concurrent verbalizations yielded verbal protocols. Units of information used were identified according to the types of information-entities, attributes, values. relationships. and operators-in the Elementary Mental Activities Model. Unique units of information were identified during coding. "Frequency of use" and "use" by subject and by exercise were calculated for each unit of information. The information characteristics source. level of detail, class, internal/external, and relationship complexity were assigned to entities, relationships. or operators. Thirteen analyses of the data demonstrated the methodology's value for research in strategic decision processes, in strategic information, and in decision tools. All but one of the results were supported in the literature on strategic decision processes. The research led to the following, overall conclusions. 1. The Elementary Mental Activities Model represents the information use of nuclear GOA managers engaged in strategic decision processes and characterizes their strategic decision processes in terms of information use. 2. The methodology developed is useful in measuring the information use of nuclear GOA managers engaged in strategic decision processes for the purposes of determining information needs for designing decision tools. / Ph. D.

Discipline-based studies of international conflict are inadequate for a critical, normative study of the problems of the nuclear era. Peace research is an evolving discipline which attempts to form an integrated, critical analysis of problems posed by nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the response of peace research to the "scientization" of military strategy, i.e, the application of decision-theoretic and Simulation methods to nuclear policy. Debates on nuclear deterrence between nuclear strategists and peace researchers tend to get polarized in terms of an objective analysis of the "realities" of the international system versus’ moral objections to the presence of nuclear weapons. This thesis demonstrates the need for integrating STS-related issues concerned with the technical capabilities of nuclear weapons into the peace researcher's critique. Thus, by illustrating the political nature of scientific and technological claims, STS can aid the transformative agenda of peace research. / Master of Science

This thesis carefully examines the question of the effect of nuclear weapons possession on international relations through a detailed examination of all international crises between nuclear powers, as identified by the International Crisis Behavior Project (ICB). It distinguishes itself from similar studies in four key areas. First, by including the recent dyadic nuclear crises between India and Pakistan, this study significantly expands the number of cases under consideration. Next, the India-Pakistan crises provide an opportunity for a novel comparison to the US-USSR crises of the Cold War. / Third, this work is unique among studies of nuclear deterrence in its combined use of qualitative and quantitative methodology. The quantitative analysis uses ordered logit with the ICB data set on a variety of variables, discussed below, that do not lend themselves to standard regression techniques. The qualitative analysis examines whether or not nuclear weapons caused decision-makers on both sides of each crises to refrain from escalation due to fear of nuclear catastrophe. Finally, this study compares the effect of mutual nuclear weapons capability with the effects of democracy and interdependence on the level of violence in crises. / Ultimately, this thesis finds that nuclear proliferation is far less successful at preventing war among states in dyadic nuclear crises than is commonly believed. In only one of 17 crises (the Cuban Missile Crisis) is it clear that mutual possession of nuclear weapons caused leaders on both sides to eschew war. Relative to nuclear weapons possession, democracy and trade were found to be significantly more effective at limiting violence in crises and preventing war. Moreover, regimes suffering a lack of legitimacy in either the international community or among their neighbors had a significantly higher level of violence in crises. / Taken together, these findings have significant implications for public policy regarding nuclear proliferation, suggesting that the international community should work even more diligently to prevent nuclear proliferation, while working to strengthen democratic regimes, increase interstate trade, and reduce the international isolation of states such as North Korea and Iran.

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Thesis (M.S. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005. / Thesis Advisor(s): Peter Lavoy. Includes bibliographical references (p. 71-75). Also available online.

For many in the West, North Korea is a secretive, reclusive, and enigmatic country, a rogue state that threatens the world with its nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Confronted with its numerous provocations involving nuclear tests and missile launches, however, the international community still has not formulated a coherent response. So how do we understand the crisis on the Korean peninsula that has persisted well beyond the end of the Cold War? Christoph Bluth presents an in-depth analytical account of North Korea's development from a Soviet satellite to a failed state in the post-Cold War period. He also explains South Korea's transition from a military dictatorship to a modern democracy with a thriving economy. Based on interviews with key policymakers and experts located in South Korea, Bluth's study throws light on Korean hopes for unification and the future of the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. U.S. policy toward North Korea has been politically controversial, with some supporting engagement and negotiations, and others calling for isolating the regime on the basis that it cannot be trusted. Neither approach will work, according to Bluth, who explains that North Korea's foreign and security policy is the result of both the internal and external threats to the survival of a regime that can no longer sustain itself. A suitable text for undergraduates as well as postgraduates, this book will be of interest to anyone with an interest in Korea, international security, and, in particular, nuclear nonproliferation.

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Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / India has made a concerted effort to upgrade its ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities as it competes with China and Pakistan for regional power. The Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System, Su-30MKI fighter-bomber aircraft, and S-300PMU surface-to-air missile system are some examples of the new capabilities India is acquiring. I argue that if India continues its military modernization, Pakistan will become more insecure. The increase in the conventional military capabilities gap will likely upset the existing balance of power in South Asia, leading to a regional arms race, lowering the nuclear threshold, and increasing instability in the region. The strategic stability/tactical instability paradox that exists between two nuclear countries may lead them to engage in "small" wars. India's increasing military capabilities may encourage it to conduct a preventive strike against Pakistan. In such a climate, a regional arms race eventually may lead Pakistan to establish a "hair-trigger" nuclear posture. India's effort to achieve a significantly superior conventional military force over Pakistan paradoxically may reduce Indian security by causing greater instability, and possibly lead to nuclear war. Regional stability is enhanced to the extent that there is a rough conventional military balance between India and Pakistan. / Lieutenant, United States Navy