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Using predictive uncertainty analysis to optimise data acquisition for stream depletion and land-use change predictionsop den Kelder, Antonia January 2018 (has links)
To facilitate robust understanding of the processes and properties that govern a groundwater system, managers need data. However, this often requires them to make difficult decisions about what types of data to collect and where and when to collect it in the most cost - effective manner. This is where data worth analysis, which is based on predictive uncertainty analyses, can play an important role. The ‘worth’ of data is defined here as the reduction in uncertainty of a specific prediction of interest that is achieved as a result of a given data collection strategy. With the use of data worth analysis, the optimal data types, sample locations, and sampling frequencies can be determined for a specific prediction that informs, for example, management decisions. In this study a data worth method was used to optimize data collection when predicting pumping - induced stream depletion (water quantity section) and when predicting changing nitrate concentrations as a result of land-use change (water quality section). Specifically, the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) based data worth method was employed. This thesis also builds upon previous work which explores the impacts of spatial model parameterisation on the performance of the data worth analysis in the context of stream depletion assessments. A transient groundwater model was developed, using the MODFLOW-NWT software, and a steady state transport model was developed, using the MT3D-USGS software for the mid-Mataura catchment located in Southland, New Zealand. The ‘worth’ of both existing and additional potential monitoring data were investigated. In addition, and for only the water quantity part of the thesis, three spatial hydraulic parameter density scenarios were investigated to assess of parameter simplification on the performance of the data worth method: 1) distributed pilot-point parameters, 2) homogeneous parameters, and 3) grid-cell based parameters. The water quantity (stream depletion) predictions were made at 2 key locations: (i) the catchment outlet at Gore and (ii) the outlet of a spring-fedstream (McKellar Stream). The water quality prediction (change in nitrate concentration due to land-use change) was made at 7 locations 4 key surface water locations, 2 town supply bores at Gore and one additional groundwater location further upstream. For the water quantity predictions, results show that the existing transient groundwater level data resulted in the largest reduction in uncertainty for the predictions examined. Because the low flow predictions at Gore were integrating predictions, the most uncertainty reducing observations were scattered through the catchment area with a focus on the north-west. This coincides with the recharge zone (which means that there are large water level fluctuations and hence a larger ‘signal to noise’ content in the groundwater level data). In contrast, because McKellar Stream is a discrete prediction (in this case, because McKellar Stream is spring-fed), the observations directly surrounding the stream reduce the uncertainty the most significantly. The impact of parameter simplification in the water quantity modelling showed that the data worth analysis using the grid-cell based parameterisation were very similar to those using pilot-points. However, when using the homogeneous parameterisation, the data worth results became corrupted by the lack of spatial variability available in the parameterisation. Indicating that spatial heterogeneity is needed when predicting low flows, as was shown by previous studies. However, the computational time associated with performing data worth uncertainty analyses is much higher with a grid-cell based parameterisation. A pilot-point based scheme should perhaps therefore be considered a favourable option. For the water quality predictions, results showed a strong correlation between the hydraulic conductivity, porosity and denitrification. This is likely because the hydraulic conductivity and porosity provide information about the velocity of the groundwater for a given hydraulic - head gradient, which provides information about the amount of time available for denitrification to take place in the soil substrate. Next to that, results showed no distinct difference between surface water and groundwater predictions when predicting changing nitrate concentrations, but they showed that the spatial data worth patterns depended on the proximity of the prediction location to the denitrifying areas. Overall it can be concluded that spatial parameterisation is needed when performing a data worth study for stream depletion predictions, however a more detailed parameterisation than pilot – points does not provide significantly more information. Next to that, it can be concluded that the spatial data worth patterns when predicting low flows mainly depend on if the predictions are integrating or discrete predictions. Lastly, it can also be concluded that the data worth patterns when predicting change in nitrate concentration depend on the proximity of the prediction location to the denitrifying areas.
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Irrigation sector development in Punjab ( Pakistan) : Case Study of district SargodhaHayat, Ansar January 2007 (has links)
Pakistan is a densely populated country; and its population is increasing rapidly. More than fifty percent of population is living in rural areas and is related to agricultural sector. Punjab is the most populated province of Pakistan. Irrigation system of Punjab is not very developed. The present irrigation system is almost hundred year old. The management of existing irrigation system is a big challenge. With increase in population, load on existing irrigation system is also rising and situation is presenting serious problems. This report addresses main problems related to management of irrigation system in district Sargodha of Punjab province of Pakistan. The problem with management of existing irrigation system includes social as well as technical problems. This report also discusses loss in agricultural production due to mismanagement of irrigation system. Further, report also suggests possible solutions for the management of irrigation system. These solutions take into account reforms in social sector as well as introduction of new technology. For the assessment of report, past research related to management of irrigation system in Indus basin has been studied. This research also includes ideas of previous researchers about management of irrigation system and then we try to conclude possible solutions for better management of irrigation system in area.
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Nestlé and the Global Water Governance ArenaSmith, Yvonne January 2017 (has links)
The future of global water supply and availability is one of the most important questions facing life on earth today, and experts agree that the most pressing angle to approach the question from is its governance. However, water represents one of the worlds broadest and most complex fields of governance due to its cross thematic and cross-boundary reach, as well as an increase in new actors through privatisation and transnational corporate influence. In order to actively implement new governance approaches the current system, its actors, connections and influence strategies must be identified. This study combines three theoretical and methodological approaches to study our current global water governance structure: Neo-Gramscian, Network analysis and Policy Entrepreneurship. The Neo-Gramscian influence theory is used to identify 3 types of connections between actors. The resulting data is then used for network analysis to identify the key actors within the field. Once these key actors have been identified, all Nestlé (as a case study for transnational corporations) connections to said actors and the field of water governance have been highlighted under the combined theoretical lenses of Neo-Gramscian influence and Policy Entrepreneurial strategies. These three theories are used in conjunction for several reasons: All three theories represent a different perspective of analysing the decentralised, large scale governance of a complex system. While network analysis allows for the visual representation of the governance “space” and for the identification of key actors and their connections, the Neo-Gramscian and policy entrepreneur approaches give insight into how these connections might be used and created in order to lead to a position of influence within the system. The results show a list of 42 key actors to whom Nestlé has a large number of self-reported connections across all 3 influence types. It further shows that Nestle actively uses at least 3 of the 4 entrepreneurial strategies on some of these connections. This suggests that Nestlé may have some significant influence in global water governance. The study is also a proof of concept for the synthesis of the three complementary theories.
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Using a lumped conceptual hydrological model for five different catchments in SwedenEkenberg, Madeleine January 2016 (has links)
Hydrological models offer powerful tools for understanding and predicting. In this thesis we havereviewed the advantages and disadvantages of physically based distributed hydrological models andconceptually lumped hydrological models. Based on that review, we went into depth and developed aMATLAB code to test if a simple conceptual lumped hydrological model, namely GR2M, wouldperform satisfactory for five different catchments in different parts of Sweden. The model had ratherunsatisfactory results and underestimated runoff systematically throughout all the five catchments.Additions to the model structure, such as a buffer allowing an approximation for snowmelt delay, wereintroduced with varying degrees of success. Based on analytical exploration of the model theory, it canbe seen that the instability of the model is mainly caused by one of the two free parameters used inGR2M, namely the maximum soil storage capacity. The optimization method used showed lowsensitivity to changes in this parameter while the calculated soil storage had strong dependence on thisparameter. Based on these results, it is fair to say that a simple lumped model likely does not have theability to represent the full range of hydrological conditions found along the gradient of Sweden.
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Miljöeffekter inom vägplanering : En utvärdering av den samlade effektbedömningens styrkor och svagheter / Environmental effects in road planning : An evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the effect assessmentNäslund, Philip January 2010 (has links)
Detta arbete har genomförts i samarbete med Vägverket Region Mitt med syfte att utvärdera hur bedömningen i de samlade effektbedömningarna är genomförda. En samlad effektbedömning är ett dokument som ska sammanfatta vilka effekter ett vägprojekt kommer medföra utifrån befintliga dokument. Bland annat brukar den samlade effektbedömningen bedöma miljöeffekter utifrån en upprättad miljökonsekvensbeskrivning. I den samlade effektbedömningen ska både de effekter som kan värderas monetärt och de som inte kan värderas ingå. Ett flertal miljöeffekter som påverkan på naturmiljö, markanspråkstagande och barriäreffekter är svåra att värdera monetärt och hamnar då under ej prissatta effekter. Dessa ska utifrån det som framgår av exempelvis miljökonsekvensbeskrivningen bedömas. Då bedömningen blir individberoende utförs de med varierande kvalitet. Handledningen för den samlade effektbedömningen säger att ej prissatta effekter av betydelser ska ingå och att en motivering ska ges. Det medför att upprättaren av den samlade effektbedömningen själv måste sortera ut de effekter som bör ingå. Det gör att de samlade effektbedömningarna blir subjektiva då påverkan av en effekt kan tolkas olika. Den samlade effektbedömningen upprättas av konsultfirmor på uppdrag av Vägverket och i denna studie har två regioner, Mitt och Sydöst med respektive konsultfirmor jämförts. 16 projekt ingick i studien, 8 projekt från Region Mitt och 8 projekt från Region Sydöst. I studien låg fokus på de miljöeffekter som påvisades och de dokument som granskades var miljökonsekvensbeskrivningar samt de miljöeffekter som finns beskrivna i de samlade effektbedömningarna. För att systematiskt ta fram vilka effekter som beskrivs i miljökonsekvensbeskrivningarna har en innehållsanalys använts. Resultatet från studien visar att ingen samlad effektbeskrivning fullständigt speglar de effekter som framgår i miljökonsekvensbeskrivningarna. Majoriteten av de samlade effektbedömningarna har bedömningar som godkänts med anmärkning medan några blev underkända. Det går utifrån studien inte att påvisa någon större skillnad mellan regionerna utan den handledning som finns för den samlade effektbedömningen används likartat i båda regionerna. Vissa brister i den samlade effektbedömningen kunde påvisas som bland annat att begränsningen av antal sidor sänker kvalitén, att vissa indikatorer som används är för omfattande samt att måluppfyllelsebedömningen för miljömålet är svårgenomförbar som den i dagsläget är utformad. Vägverkets verksamhet ska sträva efter att uppnå de transportpolitiska målen och de projekt som genomförs bör därför bidra mot de långsiktiga målen. Några av de åtgärdsförslag som rapporten mynnade ut i var att sidantalet och där med innehållet bör ökas. Detta för att få ett mer utvecklar innehåll som på ett representativt sätt kan avspegla de effekter som vägprojektet medför. Andra förslag var att hänvisningar till miljökonsekvensbeskrivningen skulle underlätta granskningen av den samlade effekt beskrivningen, att några indikatorer som används bör delas upp då de i dagsläget är för omfattande samt att måluppfyllelsebedömningen för miljömålet bör ses över då dess omfång är för stor.
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Dammbrottsberäkningar - Känslighetsanalys av ingående parametrarTorén, Frida January 2015 (has links)
Dammbrottsberäkningar har stor betydelse i dagens samhälle, eftersom de utförs för att kunna förutspå vad som sker då en damm går till brott. Detta ger bland annat underlag till att kunna ha en så bra beredskap som möjligt. Många undersökningar har tidigare gjorts i syfte att förstå hur dammbrottsprocessen ser ut samt att bestämma rimliga värden för parametrar som används. Flertalet parametrar är dock fortfarande väldigt osäkra och beror på er rad olika faktorer. Olika värden antas ofta vid olika dammbrottsberäkningar. För att undersöka vilken betydelse de olika parametrarana kan ha för resultatet av dammbrottsberäkningar utfördes i detta arbete en känslighetsanalys på ett antal parametrar. Parametrarna som undersökts är dammbrottssektionens utseende, beskrivning av magasinets volym, storlek samt utseende, ett klimatpåverkat flöde samt dammens kornstorlek. Detta gjordes genom att variera parametrarna i de redan uppbyggda endimensionella modellerna i MIKE 11 för Ångerman- samt Umeälven. Resultatet visade att utseendet på dammbrottsbräschen har stor betydelse för konsekvenser i nedströms belägna områden. Höjden på dammbrottsbräschen har större betydelse än bredden men är också mer säker. Magasinsets utseende samt storlek får betydelse för resultatet. Ett förändrat flöde till följd av de klimatförändringar vi har att vänta påverkar även det resultatet. En parameter som dock inte ger några uppenbara skillnader då den varieras är dammens kornstorlek. / Dam break calculations have an important role in today’s society. The calculations are done to be able to predict the consequences of a dam break and thereby increase the safety. Several earlier investigations have been done with the aim to understand the dam break process and determine values of the different parameters used in the calculations. Still several of these parameters are very uncertain and depend on numerous factors. Different values of the parameter are often used in the dam break calculations. To investigate what significance the different parameters have on the result of the dam break calculations are a sensitivity analysis was performed considering a number of parameters. The investigated parameters are; the dam breach dimensions, the size, shape and accuracy in the description of the reservoir, a climate impacted flow in the river and also the grain size. The analysis was performed through varying of the parameters in an already built up one dimensional model in MIKE 11 for the rivers of Ume and Ångermanälven in Sweden. The results show that the dimensions of the dam breach have a large impact on downstream areas. The height has a larger impact than the width but is also more certain. The appearance and size of the reservoir also have great impact on the result. A change in the flow due to climate change will also affect the water levels downstream. The grain size however gives no visible change in the results when varied.
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Exploring a Water Balance Method on Recharge Estimations in the Kilombero Valley, TanzaniaFischer, Sandra January 2013 (has links)
Simple models that require little input data and are easy to use is the ideal case within hydrology. Basic water balance principles often represent such approaches as the method on rainfall-runoff relationship developed by Sutcliffe et al. in India in 1981. That was tested for the Kilombero Valley in Tanzania in order to estimate the recharge to the soil and sub-surface systems. Measured annual runoff in the streams was compared to the seasonal net rainfall to give the difference as potential recharge. This was done for five separate sub-catchment where the hillslope catchments gave a smaller proportion of the net rainfall to occur as surface runoff compared to the valley-catchments. Due to the difference in hydrologic setting from the original model site in India to the Kilombero Valley (e.g. a wetland and stream type), the soil moisture recharge could not be estimated. Also, corrections are needed to the data preparation process and the state of the original stream flow data is questionable. Thus, the results were interpreted as an indication on how the water resources could be moving in the system. An explaining theory that captured the difference between the landform types is mountain system recharge. That implied that all surplus rainfall generated in the mountains has a potential to eventually recharge the groundwater. The method tested, though its simple general concepts, could not alone give satisfying results for the Kilombero Valley system. However, this study convey the importance of continuous exploration of methods to describe the environment in a simplified way.
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Saltvattenpåverkan i enskilda brunnar i kustnära områden : En undersökning av grundvattenförhållandena och riskerna för saltvattenpåverkan i S:t Annas skärgård, ÖstergötlandAronsson, Johanna January 2013 (has links)
Coastal areas are popular for housing, both for permanent living and holiday houses. At the same time, thin sediments and small storage capacity in the bedrock makes the ground water resources limited. The limited ground water resources combined with too large withdrawals of ground water makes salt water intrusion a problem in many coastal areas. This study examine the risk of salt water intrusion in drinking water supplying wells on the island Södra Finnö in S:t Anna archipelago, Östergötland, Sweden. A calculation of the relation between ground water recharge and withdrawal is obtained to analyze the ground water balance in the area. To investigate the thickness of the freshwater in the aquifer, the Ghyben-Herzberg principle is used, based on measurements of ground water levels in the area. The study also includes a GIS-analyze to investigate the risk of salt water intrusion for specific wells, and water samples analyzed for conductivity and sodium. The results show a positive ground water balance, which indicate the area is not to be seen as a risk area for salt water intrusion. However, the GIS-analyze and the water samples shows that some specific wells are in risk of, or has already been effected from, salt water intrusion.
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Kan perfluorerade ämnen i kläder bidra till förhöjda halter i reningsverk?Kilkki, Outi January 2012 (has links)
Perfluorinated substances (PF) are environmental pollutants that are used to coat fibres of so called “all weather clothes” to make them water resistant. PF are effectively spread through water. Waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) are a pollutant source of these substances. PF are poisonous to different kinds of organisms, and supposedly also to human beings, if concentrations are sufficiently high. Perfluorinated substances have been investigated at three waste water treatment plants in Stockholm during the 2000’s. This study deals with five perfluorinated substances, PFOS, PFOA. PFOSA, PFDoA and PFUnA. By comparing the contents of perfluorinated substances detected in sludge from waste water treatment plants, with calculated emissions of PF from clothes, I have investigated whether or not the all weather clothes are a major source of emission of perfluorinated substances. The results show that the estimated contents of perfluorinated substances in sludge by WWTPs caused by all weather clothes are between 0,04 % and 2,2 % of the total PF emission, which means about 0,6-9,5 kg annually from the three WWTPs studied here. Thus, all weather clothes are not a dominating source of emission of PF in sludge, but rather one of many sources. Since the perfluorinated substances have very high persistence, it is of great concern that these substances appear in the environment. The amounts of PF found in sludge are high enough to pollute significant amounts of water. Several studies should be conducted to increase the understanding of emission sources of the perfluorinated substances.
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Secondary currents in groundwaterEngström, Maria January 2017 (has links)
The thesis concerns the small vertical water movements created by thermal convection and the Coriolis force acting on groundwater flows. These small flows are of importance to vertical transports of temperature, nutrients and contaminants that would not be spread in the way they are. The first part analyzes thermally driven, seasonal groundwater convection by numerical simulation. The second part shows that the Coriolis force also induces secondary currents in groundwater flow through different vertical permeability distributions. Density driven convection occurs during the autumn in southern Sweden when the ambient air temperature cools the mean groundwater temperature from about 10ºC. When the shallow groundwater is cooled by the ambient air its increased density makes this water sink, slowly increasing in temperature, while pressing the warmer water upwards creating a convection cell. The process is ongoing as long as there is a thermal gradient between ground surface and the groundwater. Under favorable conditions convection can reach a depth of 6m. Such density-driven water movements occur most easily in more permeable soil. In northern Sweden, the situation is reversed, since the mean groundwater temperature is below 4ºC, at which water is at its density maximum. So, in springtime when the uppermost groundwater is heated to 4ºC by the warmer air the convection process starts. Here, the sinking groundwater does not reach the same depth, less than one meter. The Coriolis force has been considered too small to have any effect on groundwater flow, though its importance in meteorology and oceanography is well established. These theories have been applied using numerical simulations of groundwater flow. The numerical model has been validated by simulating some earlier studies of Coriolis forces in fluids. Furthermore the model has been extended to include porous media. It has been shown that secondary currents occur in nonlinear vertical permeability distributions. For simulations of constant and linear distributions no secondary currents have been seen. The development is more pronounced in confined aquifers. The structure of the bottom of the aquifer affects how the secondary currents arise. It was shown that both temperature gradients and the Coriolis force form secondary currents in groundwater and a general conclusion is that groundwater flow is more complex than previously assumed.
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