The supply chain risk management discipline studies how to address daily and extraordinary risks to avoid vulnerability and to guarantee production continuity. In the case of the electricity sector, the economic impact of interrupting the power supply is depicted by an indicator called the deficit cost, measured in monetary unit per electricity consumption unit (for example, in Brazil, R$/MWh). This value is commonly applied to cost-benefit analysis that results in decisions about maintenance and investment in the electricity system in the medium and long term, in addition to composing the short-term energy price. Most countries in the world have a thermal energy matrix, and cases in which interruption problems occur are mainly due to punctual failures in generation or transmission and last a few hours or days until maintenance is concluded. Brazil, however, has been strongly dependent on hydrological conditions ever since the main generation source became hydroelectric. Since restricted energy supply scenarios last longer, from weeks to months, a better measure for the electricity structural deficit impact is the economic loss in the deficit-affected regional production, translated as the GDP (gross domestic product) region. This dissertation estimates the Brazilian GDP marginal loss due to power deficits by applying an input-output (I/O) matrix analysis methodology and concludes that the officially adopted deficit cost is underestimated. / Sem resumo em português.

The supply chain risk management discipline studies how to address daily and extraordinary risks to avoid vulnerability and to guarantee production continuity. In the case of the electricity sector, the economic impact of interrupting the power supply is depicted by an indicator called the deficit cost, measured in monetary unit per electricity consumption unit (for example, in Brazil, R$/MWh). This value is commonly applied to cost-benefit analysis that results in decisions about maintenance and investment in the electricity system in the medium and long term, in addition to composing the short-term energy price. Most countries in the world have a thermal energy matrix, and cases in which interruption problems occur are mainly due to punctual failures in generation or transmission and last a few hours or days until maintenance is concluded. Brazil, however, has been strongly dependent on hydrological conditions ever since the main generation source became hydroelectric. Since restricted energy supply scenarios last longer, from weeks to months, a better measure for the electricity structural deficit impact is the economic loss in the deficit-affected regional production, translated as the GDP (gross domestic product) region. This dissertation estimates the Brazilian GDP marginal loss due to power deficits by applying an input-output (I/O) matrix analysis methodology and concludes that the officially adopted deficit cost is underestimated. / Sem resumo em português.

The distribution system which forms the final connection between customers and power source plays a vital role in an electrical network. Different studies show that substantial proportion of the customer interruptions occurs due to the failures on distribution network. The ongoing privatization process of the electrical distribution services in Turkey raises the importance of reliable and continuous electricity supply significantly. The new regulations come up with this privatization process and the electrical distribution companies are strictly required to comply with these regulations to ensure the reliability of the distribution network. The legal framework and severe punishments applied to the electrical distribution companies exceeding the continuity of supply indices force them to invest on their network in order to increase the reliability of their system. As the reliability of electricity supplied increases, investment cost also increases. However, low system reliability causes higher outage frequency and duration which will increase the damage of these outages to customers and also increases the cost of the distribution company as a result of the penalty payments. This tradeoff between Outage Cost and Utility Cost requires consideration of an optimization when determining the optimal reliability level. In rural areas where electrical distribution network consists of long radial overhead lines in arborescent structure, continuity of supply is a major problem due to the high failure rates. The implementation of protection devices having reclosing capability and automated sectionalizing switches enhances the continuity of supply on rural networks substantially. The balance between the cost associated with installation of switches and the reduction on Outage Cost is an important optimization issue for distribution network operators. In this thesis study an algorithm is developed in order to determine the optimum number and locations of the sectionalizing switches on a rural electrical distribution network in Turkey which gives an optimum investment level with an optimum Outage Cost.

過去電力事業為了滿足電力用戶之需求，對於新電源之開發不遺餘力。然而由於電力事業近年來在供給面規劃屢遭當地居民抗爭而受阻，因而晚近轉而強調用戶需求面之管理。 本文針對台電公司現行需求面管理之「用戶計劃性減少用電措施」四種方案進行研析。首先設定簡化條件，將四種方案予以模型化，利用經濟剩餘模型，進行邊際分析，探討台電公司提供優惠之折扣比例及電力的價格需求彈性如何參與用戶抑低容量以及消費者剩餘、生產者剩餘分配之效果。分析結果顯示：「計劃性（二）」抑低用戶負載容量最高，且參與用戶之消費者剩餘最多；「計劃性（一）」抑低用戶負載容量最低，且參與用戶之消費者剩餘最少。另一方面，若從電力公司之視角觀之，「計劃性（二）」之生產者剩餘最低，而「計劃性（一）」之生產者剩餘最高。 經濟剩餘模型分析中，由於未能充分考慮供需雙方之潛在成本與效益，因此實務上之解釋能力有其侷限之處。基於上述緣由，本文接著藉由成本效益分析，將方案實施之潛在成本與效益納入考量，分別從參與用戶之角度進行參與者檢定（Participant Cost Test, PCT）以及從電力公司之角度進行公用事業成本檢定（Utility Cost Test, UCT），以檢視不同方案在不同觀點下之績效表現。成本效益分析結果顯示：在PCT檢定下，「計劃性（四）」參與用戶之益本比最高，「計劃性（二）」參與用戶之益本比最低。而在UCT檢定下，「計劃性（一）」電力公司益本比最高，「計劃性（四）」電力公司益本比最低。將成本效益分析與經濟剩餘模型比較後可發現，用戶抑低容量高的方案對於電力公司而言未必最有利。 最後，為進一步探討關鍵變數變動造成不同方案間成本效益值之影響，因此進行敏感度分析。敏感度分析的結果顯示：若電力公司為吸引用戶而提高誘因，增加各方案給予用戶優惠折扣之比例，以參與用戶角度而言，「計劃性（四）」參與者檢定之益本比提高幅度最大；以電力公司角度而言，「計劃性（四）」公用事業成本檢定之益本比降低幅度最大。若電力公司提高參與用戶每次抑低用電負載之時數，以參與用戶角度而言，「計劃性（四）」參與者檢定之益本比降低幅度最大；以電力公司角度而言，「計劃性（四）」之公用事業成本檢定益本比提高幅度最大。 / In order to meet the users’ demand of electricity, the electric power utility spared no effort to develop the new power plant in the past. However, in recent years, the electric power utility have been hampered by local residents on supply-side planning, thus more emphasize is being put on users’ demand-side management（DSM）. This paper aims to analyze four projects of Taipower’s existing demand-side management of “incentive plan for customers’ scheduled load curtailment program”. First, we set several simplified conditions for modeling the projects. By using the economic surplus model and conducting the marginal analysis, the impact from the discount incentive provided by the utility and the elasticity of electricity price demand is explored－on participants’ load capacity reduction and the distribution of consumer surplus and producer surplus. The results of economic surplus model showed "project 2" curtails the maximum load capacity and with the highest consumer surplus; "project 1" curtails the minimum load capacity and with the lowest consumer surplus. On the other hand, in the Taipower's point of view, "project 2" provides with the lowest producer surplus while "project 1" gives the highest producer surplus. In the economic surplus model, since the potential costs and benefit were not fully considered in both supply and demand sides, several limitations exist on this model. Based on the above reasons, we utilize the cost benefit analysis, taking the potential cost and benefit into account and conducting Participant Cost Test（PCT） from the participants’ perspective and Utility Cost Test（UCT）from the utility’s perspective to examine the performance under different 4 DSM projects in different point of view. The results of cost benefit analysis showed that in the PCT test, the "project 4" comes up with the highest benefit cost ratio while "project 2" has the lowest cost benefit ratio. In the UCT test, the "project 1" has the highest cost benefit ratio while "project 4" came with the lowest cost benefit ratio. Comparing the cost benefit analysis with the economic surplus model, we could find that the project with the most load capacity reduction may not be the most favorable project for the utility. Finally, in order to further explore the key variables affecting the cost and benefit value in different projects, we simulated several scenarios for sensitivity analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that if the utility increases incentives to increase four projects’ ratio of discount for attracting participant, in the participants’ perspective, "project 4" would have the most changed rate of cost benefit ratio（increase）; in the utility's perspective, "project 4" would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio（decrease）. If the utility increases the load curtailment duration each time, in the participants’ perspective, "project4" would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio（decrease） ; in the utility’s perspective, " project4 " would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio（increase）.