Past decades have witnessed evidence to large-scale upheaval caused by natural disasters. Thus, there is a need for determination of mechanisms through which natural disasters may influence growth, especially for developing countries. This paper traces the medium-short run time path of agricultural and industrial output growth response to four types of disasters in Southern and Southeastern Asian countries. Disasters considered are floods, droughts, storms and earthquakes. The empirical results suggest heterogeneous effects for disasters as well as different economic sectors. In many cases disaster impact was delayed. Generally speaking, floods and droughts have a stronger effect while earthquakes and storms have a weaker one on disaggregated output growth. Floods have a predominantly posi-tive effect while droughts have a negative one on both agricultural and industrial sectors. Storms seem to show a stronger negative effect in the agricultural sector than in industrial sector hinting at existence of short lived indirect effects. Earth-quakes, on the other hand, presented ambiguous growth responses. / No

<p>Past decades have witnessed evidence to large-scale upheaval caused by natural disasters. Thus, there is a need for determination of mechanisms through which natural disasters may influence growth, especially for developing countries. This paper traces the medium-short run time path of agricultural and industrial output growth response to four types of disasters in Southern and Southeastern Asian countries. Disasters considered are floods, droughts, storms and earthquakes. The empirical results suggest heterogeneous effects for disasters as well as different economic sectors. In many cases disaster impact was delayed. Generally speaking, floods and droughts have a stronger effect while earthquakes and storms have a weaker one on disaggregated output growth. Floods have a predominantly posi-tive effect while droughts have a negative one on both agricultural and industrial sectors. Storms seem to show a stronger negative effect in the agricultural sector than in industrial sector hinting at existence of short lived indirect effects. Earth-quakes, on the other hand, presented ambiguous growth responses.</p> / No

This study examines the linkages between output growth and output volatility in the G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2013M8. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) we find that: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined; ii) spillovers have reached unprecedented levels during the global financial crisis; and iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of growth and volatility shocks. Generalized impulse response analyses suggest moderate growth spillovers and sizable volatility spillovers across countries. Cross-variable effects indicate that volatility shocks lead to lower growth, while growth shocks reduce output volatility.

Nesta tese analisamos a influência dos preços dos ativos na condução da política monetária nos países emergentes no período de 1990 a 2006. Primeiramente, investigamos a presença de bolhas racionais nos preços das ações dos países emergentes através de testes de cointegração linear e não linear. Os resultados indicam a presença de bolhas racionais em pelo menos um dos testes realizados para cada um dos países estudados. Todavia, nossos resultados permitem concluir que as bolhas tendem a ser provocadas por fatores extrínsecos e não pela relação não linear intrínseca entre os preços das ações e os dividendos. Estudamos também a relação entre os retornos de mercado, inflação esperada e crescimento/hiato do produto, através de testes individuais e em conjunto utilizando modelos em painel linear e não linear. Em ambos verificamos que as variáveis financeiras carregam informações úteis, tanto direta como indireta, a respeito da inflação e do crescimento do produto, dentro ou fora da amostra. Por fim, investigamos se os preços dos ativos devem exercer um papel central nas decisões de política monetária, através de modelos GMM (individuais e em painel) e de otimização dinâmica. Os resultados indicam que a razão dividendo-preço e a taxa de câmbio real são bons instrumentos na função de reação dos bancos centrais dos países emergentes, porém não podemos concluir que estas variáveis devam ser utilizadas como argumentos nestas funções de reação. Os resultados também indicam que, nos países que optaram pelo regime de metas de inflação estrita, a melhor opção seria não considerar explicitamente os retornos das ações em suas funções de reação. Para bancos centrais atuando em regimes de metas de inflação com política monetária acomodatícia ou outro tipo de regime, a melhor opção seria considerar os preços das ações em suas funções de reação. / We examine the relationship (if any) between stock prices and monetary policy in 22 emerging countries over the period 1990-2006. First, we investigate whether rational stock price bubbles are present in such countries using linear and nonlinear cointegration. Bubbles were found in at least one out of the six tests considered. These were likely to be caused by extrinsic factors, rather than by the intrinsic nonlinear relation between the stock prices and dividends. Secondly, we evaluate the link between market returns, expected inflation and output gap and growth by employing both individual and joint tests of linear and nonlinear panel models. We find that the stock prices convey useful information about inflation and output growth in-sample and out-of-the-sample Finally, we ask whether the stock prices are to be given a central role in monetary policy decisions using both (individual and panel) GMM models and dynamic optimization. We find that though the dividend-price ratio and the real exchange rate can provide useful information for monetary policy decisions, we should not jump to the conclusion that they have to be considered as arguments of the central banks' reaction functions. For the central banks with explicit inflation targeting, the best choice is not to consider the stock returns in their reaction functions. However, for the other regimes the best choice is to consider the stock returns in the reaction functions.

In this study, a demand oriented simultaneous equation macroeconometric model with a dynamic perspective is constructed in order to investigate the impact of workers&rsquo / remittances on output growth via their effects on key macro variables such as private consumption, investment and imports for Turkey. The study covers the period of 1964-2003 on an annual basis. Results of the analysis suggest that workers&rsquo / remittances affect output growth in a positive manner through the multiplier process. It is found that the highest induced growth rate by remittances to output growth belongs to the early 1970s especially the year of 1973, which corresponds to the date of first oil shock and also the end of labour migration to Europe. Thus, it is concluded that although workers&rsquo / remittances have been mostly used for consumption and imports as mentioned in most of the studies both for Turkey and other countries, remittances contributed to economic growth of Turkey positively through the multiplier process especially in the early 1970s.

This thesis consists of three studies that cover topics in inflation and output growth, and their uncertainties in G7 and developing countries. We utilise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Price Index (IPI) as proxies for the inflation rate (price level) and the growth rate (output), respectively. Chapter 2 considers the case of three developing countries Turkey, Egypt and Syria. We analyse the inflation and growth using asymmetric PGARCH model. In accordance with this, we estimate all the models using two alternative distributions the normal and Student’s t. Moreover, dummy variables are chosen in the inflation data according to some economic events in Turkey, Egypt and Syria. Even more, the mean equation is adjusted to include these dummy variables on the intercept. To summarize, the results show an evidence of the Cukierman–Meltzer (1986) hypothesis, which is labelled as the ‘opportunistic Fed’ by Grier and Perry (1998), in Egypt and Syria. On the other hand, an evidence of the Holland (1995) hypothesis is obtained in Turkey, this result suggests that the ‘stabilizing Fed’ notion is plausible. Moreover, an evidence for the first leg of Friedman (1977) hypothesis is obtained in Egypt and Turkey. Chapter 3 examines the causal relationship between inflation and output growth, and their variabilities for G7 countries by applying the bivariate constant conditional correlation CCC – GARCH (1,1)-ML models. Moreover, we employ the models including dummy variables in the mean equations to investigate the impact of economic events on inflation and output. Briefly, there are evidences of the second leg of Friedman (1977) hypothesis in the US, UK, Germany, Italy, France and Canada while there is an evidence of Dotsey and Sarte (2000) in Japan. In addition, there are evidences for positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation in the US, Germany, Japan and France in line of Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. Moreover, the results of estimation CCC-GARCH (1,1) in mean models including dummy variables highlight a strong support for the two legs of Friedman (1977) hypothesis and Cukierman and Meltzer (1986). Lastly, Chapter 4 is based on examining the inflation rates for three developing countries Turkey, Syria and Egypt by applying the Bai and Perron (2003) breakpoint specification technique in the monthly inflation data of our sample. As a result, three possible break points for each of the inflation rates in the conditional variance have been determined. In addition, we employ GARCH model to control the breaks in the conditional mean and variance equations. To conclude, the autoregressive coefficients seem to cause a statistically significant impact on the breaks only in the case of Turkey, also, the parameters of the mean equation show time varying characteristics across three breaks. As far as the conditional variance is concerned the ARCH parameter (?) shows no time varying behaviour while for the GARCH parameter only one significant break seems to impact the inflation rate in Syria.

Nesta tese analisamos a influência dos preços dos ativos na condução da política monetária nos países emergentes no período de 1990 a 2006. Primeiramente, investigamos a presença de bolhas racionais nos preços das ações dos países emergentes através de testes de cointegração linear e não linear. Os resultados indicam a presença de bolhas racionais em pelo menos um dos testes realizados para cada um dos países estudados. Todavia, nossos resultados permitem concluir que as bolhas tendem a ser provocadas por fatores extrínsecos e não pela relação não linear intrínseca entre os preços das ações e os dividendos. Estudamos também a relação entre os retornos de mercado, inflação esperada e crescimento/hiato do produto, através de testes individuais e em conjunto utilizando modelos em painel linear e não linear. Em ambos verificamos que as variáveis financeiras carregam informações úteis, tanto direta como indireta, a respeito da inflação e do crescimento do produto, dentro ou fora da amostra. Por fim, investigamos se os preços dos ativos devem exercer um papel central nas decisões de política monetária, através de modelos GMM (individuais e em painel) e de otimização dinâmica. Os resultados indicam que a razão dividendo-preço e a taxa de câmbio real são bons instrumentos na função de reação dos bancos centrais dos países emergentes, porém não podemos concluir que estas variáveis devam ser utilizadas como argumentos nestas funções de reação. Os resultados também indicam que, nos países que optaram pelo regime de metas de inflação estrita, a melhor opção seria não considerar explicitamente os retornos das ações em suas funções de reação. Para bancos centrais atuando em regimes de metas de inflação com política monetária acomodatícia ou outro tipo de regime, a melhor opção seria considerar os preços das ações em suas funções de reação. / We examine the relationship (if any) between stock prices and monetary policy in 22 emerging countries over the period 1990-2006. First, we investigate whether rational stock price bubbles are present in such countries using linear and nonlinear cointegration. Bubbles were found in at least one out of the six tests considered. These were likely to be caused by extrinsic factors, rather than by the intrinsic nonlinear relation between the stock prices and dividends. Secondly, we evaluate the link between market returns, expected inflation and output gap and growth by employing both individual and joint tests of linear and nonlinear panel models. We find that the stock prices convey useful information about inflation and output growth in-sample and out-of-the-sample Finally, we ask whether the stock prices are to be given a central role in monetary policy decisions using both (individual and panel) GMM models and dynamic optimization. We find that though the dividend-price ratio and the real exchange rate can provide useful information for monetary policy decisions, we should not jump to the conclusion that they have to be considered as arguments of the central banks' reaction functions. For the central banks with explicit inflation targeting, the best choice is not to consider the stock returns in their reaction functions. However, for the other regimes the best choice is to consider the stock returns in the reaction functions.

Nesta tese analisamos a influência dos preços dos ativos na condução da política monetária nos países emergentes no período de 1990 a 2006. Primeiramente, investigamos a presença de bolhas racionais nos preços das ações dos países emergentes através de testes de cointegração linear e não linear. Os resultados indicam a presença de bolhas racionais em pelo menos um dos testes realizados para cada um dos países estudados. Todavia, nossos resultados permitem concluir que as bolhas tendem a ser provocadas por fatores extrínsecos e não pela relação não linear intrínseca entre os preços das ações e os dividendos. Estudamos também a relação entre os retornos de mercado, inflação esperada e crescimento/hiato do produto, através de testes individuais e em conjunto utilizando modelos em painel linear e não linear. Em ambos verificamos que as variáveis financeiras carregam informações úteis, tanto direta como indireta, a respeito da inflação e do crescimento do produto, dentro ou fora da amostra. Por fim, investigamos se os preços dos ativos devem exercer um papel central nas decisões de política monetária, através de modelos GMM (individuais e em painel) e de otimização dinâmica. Os resultados indicam que a razão dividendo-preço e a taxa de câmbio real são bons instrumentos na função de reação dos bancos centrais dos países emergentes, porém não podemos concluir que estas variáveis devam ser utilizadas como argumentos nestas funções de reação. Os resultados também indicam que, nos países que optaram pelo regime de metas de inflação estrita, a melhor opção seria não considerar explicitamente os retornos das ações em suas funções de reação. Para bancos centrais atuando em regimes de metas de inflação com política monetária acomodatícia ou outro tipo de regime, a melhor opção seria considerar os preços das ações em suas funções de reação. / We examine the relationship (if any) between stock prices and monetary policy in 22 emerging countries over the period 1990-2006. First, we investigate whether rational stock price bubbles are present in such countries using linear and nonlinear cointegration. Bubbles were found in at least one out of the six tests considered. These were likely to be caused by extrinsic factors, rather than by the intrinsic nonlinear relation between the stock prices and dividends. Secondly, we evaluate the link between market returns, expected inflation and output gap and growth by employing both individual and joint tests of linear and nonlinear panel models. We find that the stock prices convey useful information about inflation and output growth in-sample and out-of-the-sample Finally, we ask whether the stock prices are to be given a central role in monetary policy decisions using both (individual and panel) GMM models and dynamic optimization. We find that though the dividend-price ratio and the real exchange rate can provide useful information for monetary policy decisions, we should not jump to the conclusion that they have to be considered as arguments of the central banks' reaction functions. For the central banks with explicit inflation targeting, the best choice is not to consider the stock returns in their reaction functions. However, for the other regimes the best choice is to consider the stock returns in the reaction functions.

La présente thèse analyse l’impact de l’inflation sur la croissance économique et ses différents déterminants. Dansun premier temps, notre étude s’intéresse à deux aspects de la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance économique.Ainsi, nous examinons tout d’abord la non-linéarité du lien entre l’inflation et la croissance économique et identifionsplusieurs seuils pour l'échantillon global ainsi que pour les différents sous-échantillons définis selon le niveau durevenu. Ensuite, nous procédons à l’identification de certaines caractéristiques macroéconomiques au niveau despays qui influencent cette non-linéarité. Nos résultats empiriques corroborent les deux éléments d’analyse précédentset montrent que la non-linéarité de la relation entre l'inflation et la croissance dépend de l’ouverture commerciale dupays, de son accumulation de capital et du niveau de ses dépenses publiques (chapitre 2). Puis, dans un secondtemps, nous nous intéressons à l’explication de la non-linéarité de la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance entestant l’effet Tobin de l’inflation sur le capital physique et sur l’effet de substitution entre le travail et l’éducationpour le capital humain. Nous montrons que l’impact positif des taux d’inflation modérés résulte de l’effet Tobin surle capital physique, tandis que la réduction de l'impact de l'accélération de l'inflation provient d’une meilleureaccumulation du capital humain. Nous confirmons tous ces effets et mettons en évidence le rôle du développementfinancier pour l'ensemble de ces mécanismes (chapitre 3). Enfin, nous abordons la question du manque de cohérenceentre la vision macroéconomique fondée sur la détermination d’un seuil optimal d'inflation et les préférences réellesdes banques centrales à travers le monde. Nous remarquons que les banques centrales utilisent des modèlesmicroéconomiques néo-keynésiens qui définissent le taux d'inflation optimal comme celui minimisant les dispersionsdans les marchés des produits et des facteurs de production. Nous testons alors l'effet de l'inflation sur la variabilitédes prix relatifs et de la croissance ; nos résultats montrent que seul un faible taux d’inflation positif réduit cesincertitudes et cela quel que soit le niveau de revenu du pays. Concernant les pays émergents de notre échantillon, lechoix du régime de politique monétaire affecte également cette variabilité (chapitre 4). / This thesis is concerned with the effects of inflation on output growth and on its determinants. In the first step, ourstudy analyzes two aspects of the inflation–growth relationship. First, it examines the nonlinearity of the relationshipbetween inflation and output growth and identifies several thresholds for the global sample and for various incomespecificsub-samples. Secondly, it identifies some country-based macroeconomic features that influence thisnonlinearity. Our empirical results substantiate both views and validate the fact that the inflation–growth nonlinearityis sensitive to a country’s trade openness capital accumulation, and government expenditures (chapter 2). After that,we explain this inflation–growth nonlinearity by testing a Tobin effect of inflation on physical capital and asubstitution effect – from work to education – for human capital. We find that the positive effects of moderateinflation rate are due to the Tobin effect on physical capital whereas a weak negative effect of high inflation ratestems from a better human capital accumulation. We identify a strong role of well developed financial systems in allthese mechanisms (chapter 3). Lastly, we address a lack of coherence between the macro based optimal inflationthresholds for output growth and the actual preferences of central banks around the world. We notice that centralbanks use micro based New-Keynesian models and their optimal inflation rate is the one that minimizes dispersionsin factors and product markets. We test the effect of inflation on relative price variability and output growthvariability and, for all income groups, the results support a slight positive inflation rate to minimize theseuncertainties. For our selected emerging economies, monetary policy regimes also affect these dispersions (chapter4).

This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatilty shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series