Thesis advisor: John E. Ebel / In 1638, an earthquake with an estimated MLg of 6.5 ± 0.5 struck New England and adjacent southeastern Canada producing severe shaking in Boston, Massachusetts and Trois-Rivieres, Quebec. Previously published analyses of felt reports place the possible epicenter somewhere within a broad region including NY, NH, VT and ME. The possible source region had been further refined by the application of Omori's Law rate of aftershock decay combined with estimated rupture extent based on modern seismicity, which together suggest that a seismic event of MLg 6.5 ± 0.5 could have occurred in central New Hampshire in 1638. In order to more clearly define the possible active fault for this earthquake and determine its seismotectonic framework within central New Hampshire, three geophysical methods were used to analyze recent, digitally recorded seismic data. The three methods are a relative location analysis, computation of focal mechanisms and computation of focal depths based on fundamental mode Rayleigh waves. The combined results of the analyses are consistent with a thrust fault trending NNW - SSE and possibly dipping eastward in this postulated 1638 epicentral zone. Modern earthquakes in the postulated source area of the 1638 earthquake occur at focal depths of ~3 to 10 km with many of the events occurring below 5 km, suggesting, that this is the depth range of the 1638 rupture. Depending on the depth of the pre-Silurian basement of the Central Maine Terrane, the source of the MLg 6.5 ± 0.5 earthquake of 1638 may be a basement-involved thrust fault or a reactivated east-dipping thrust fault located between the nappes of the overlying Silurian-Devonian aged metasedimentary rocks. When the postulated fault plane is projected to the surface, portions of the Pemigewasset and Merrimack Rivers are found to flow within its surface expression, which suggests that the courses of these rivers may be fault controlled. A fourth research technique, a field survey, was undertaken to search for earthquake-induced liquefaction features along the Pemigewasset, Merrimack and Winnipesaukee Rivers as well as of the Suncook River Avulsion site. Several small strata-bound soft-sediment deformation structures were found during the survey. Although some of the features may be seismically induced, they may also have formed as the result of depositional processes and therefore cannot be attributed to the 1638 earthquake. / Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2013. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Earth and Environmental Sciences.

La Mongolie occidentale a connu une sismicité intracontinentale exceptionnelle au cours de la première moitié du XXe siècle, avec 4 évènements sismiques d'une magnitude supérieure à 7.9, localisés sur des grandes structures décrochantes en régime transpressif senestre. Cette sismicité historique a été qualifiée d’essaim sismique, et des études paléosismologiques indiquent que ce phénomène a déjà pu se produire par le passé (3 à 4 ka). Mais si la partie est de la chaine du Gobi-Altaï a rompu lors du séisme du même nom en 1957 (Mw8) le long de la faille de Bogd orientale (WBF), plusieurs traces de failles affectant des formations Holocènes et présentant des longueurs > 100 km ont été documentées dans la partie ouest du massif, sans pour autant faire l’objet d’études quantitatives.Cette thèse apporte un état des lieux de l’activité sismique dans le Gobi-Altaï, au travers d’une cartographie détaillée des escarpements de failles actives au cours du pléistocène supérieur, associée à une analyse de la segmentation au regard de critères géométriques et cinématiques. Parallèlement, des investigations morphotectoniques et paléosismologiques, couplées à des méthodes de datations au 10Be in situ, OSL et 14C, ont permis de quantifier les vitesses de glissement depuis le Pléistocène supérieur, et les âges des paléo-ruptures au cours de l’Holocène sur les deux principaux décrochements analysés : les failles de la Vallée des Lacs (VOLF), et de Bogd occidentale (WBF) ; des données préliminaires permettent également de contraindre l’âge de la dernière rupture et la vitesse de glissement sur les failles de Tsogt (TF) et de Tsagaan Gol (TGF), situées respectivement dans le prolongement occidental de la WBF et de la VOLF. De plus, des mesures systématiques des décalages cosismiques horizontaux enregistrés par la morphologie, notamment le long de la rupture de surface du séisme de 1957, couplés à l’utilisation et le développement d’une approche statistique de détermination des glissements cosismiques moyens au regard de la segmentation, a permis de déterminer la fonction de distribution du glissement le long de l’EBF sur 3 cycles sismiques, suggérant d’une part une distribution du glissement assez homogène le long de la rupture, et d’autre part que le glissement du séisme généré en 1957 est d’une amplitude comparable de celle des précédents séismes, pour au moins 50 % de la rupture principale. Cette approche de détermination statistique des glissements moyens sur plusieurs cycles sismiques est prometteuse mais présente néanmoins certaines incohérences, et des voies de développement et de validations sont proposées.Les paramètres morphotectoniques et les âges des paléoséismes documentés dans cette thèse présentent une grande cohérence avec les données précédemment acquises sur l’EBF, avec des vitesses de faille lentes (0,7 ± 0,2 mm.a-1 sur la WBF et 0,5 ± 0,1 mm.a-1 sur la VOLF), des périodes de retour longues (4,0 ± 1,2 ka pour la WBF), et des décalages cosismiques relativement importants (2 – 4 m). Nos mesures de vitesses de faille indiquent par ailleurs une distribution de la déformation depuis la EBF vers les WBF et VOLF, séparant la déformation en deux faisceaux de failles, l’un se branchant au nord depuis la VOLF sur la TGF. Les déterminations des âges de paléoséismes indiquent une possibilité de cluster entre les différentes failles étudiées, avec trois ruptures potentiellement synchrones au cours de l’Holocène, dont une, rompant l’intégralité des décrochements analysés (WBF, EBF et VOLF), s’avère être temporellement corrélée au précédent cluster potentiellement identifié à 3 – 4 ka. Les paramètres présentés dans cette thèse permettent finalement de calculer des paléomagnitudes associées aux deniers évènements sur les WBF et VOLF, comprises entre Mw7,6 et Mw8 selon les paramètres et les lois considérés. Ces données fondamentales pourront servir de canevas de base pour les actuelles études d’aléas sismique en Mongolie. / Western Mongolia experienced an exceptional intracontinental seismic activity during the first part of the XXth century, with four seismic events with Mw > 7.9, located on large strike-slip faults with a transpressive left-lateral motion. This historical seismicity has been qualified as a cluster, and paleoseismological studies indicate that this phenomenon might have occurred 3 to 4 ka ago. Although the eastern part of the Gobi-Altai mountain range broke during the eponymous earthquake in 1957 (Mw8) along the Eastern Bogd Fault (EBF), several fault traces affecting Holocene formations and presenting continuous fault length > 100 km have been documented on the western part of the range, while not been the purpose of quantitative studies.This thesis first gives an inventory of the seismic activity within the Gobi-Altai, through detailed mapping of the fault scarps which show activity during the late-Pleistocene, also with an analyze of the fault segmentation regarding to geometric and kinematic criteria. Secondly, some morphotectonical and paleoseismological surveys have been carried on, along with dating techniques as 10Be in situ, OSL and radiocarbon, which allow quantifying the faults slip-rates since late-Pleistocene, and paleo-ruptures ages during the Holocene period on the two main strike slip faults analyzed : the Valley of Lakes Fault (VOLF), and the Western Bogd Fault (WBF); preliminary data also allow quantifying the slip rates and the age of the most recent event along the Tsogt Fault (TF) and the Tsagaan Gol fault (TGF), respectively located in the westward continuation of the WBF and the VOLF. Moreover, systematic lateral offset measurements have been carried on along the faults traces, and especially along the 1957 surface rupture, where a statistical approach based on probability density has been applied in order to assess the average lateral offsets successively recorded by the landforms, and reveals that the slip distribution along the EBF on 3 seismic cycles. This suggests first that the slip distributions rather even along the rupture, and secondly that the slip related to the 1957 earthquake is of the same amount than previous major ruptures on that fault, for half of the main 1957 surface rupture. This approach of average coseismic slip assessment on several seismic cycles is promising, but still presents some inconsistencies, and we propose developments and validation perspectives.Morphotectonic parameters and ages of paleo-earthquakes reported in this thesis present a strong consistency with former studies along the EBF, with slow slip-rates (0,7 ± 0,2 mm.yr-1 on the WBF and 0,5 ± 0,1 mm.yr-1 on the VOLF), and significant left lateral coseismic offsets (2 – 4 m). Our measurements of slip rates indicate furthermore a distribution of the on-fault deformation from the EBF to the WBF and the VOLF, splitting the deformation in two branches, the north one reaching the TGF and the southern one visibly branches on the TF. Assessments of the paleoearthquakes ages show three possible clusters between the studied faults during the Holocene time, and one of them may break the three faults (WBF, EBF and VOLF), and seems as well to correspond to the cluster possibly identified 3-4 kyr ago. The fault parameters presented in this thesis allow computing the paleomagnitudes related to last seismic events along the WBF and the VOLF, ranging from Mw7.6 and Mw8, depending of parameters and empirical relations considered. Finally those fundamental data may serve as basic pattern for current seismic hazard assessments in Mongolia.

Long-term human-environmental interactions in naturally fragile drylands are a focus of geomorphological and geoarchaeological research. Furthermore, many dryland societies were also affected by seismic activity. The semi-arid Shiraki Plain in the tectonically active southeastern Caucasus is currently covered by steppe and largely devoid of settlements. However, numerous Late Bronze to Early Iron Age city-type settlements suggest early state formation between ca. 3.2-2.5 ka that abruptly ended after that time. A paleolake was postulated for the lowest plain, and nearby pollen records suggest forest clearcutting of the upper altitudes under a more humid climate during the Late Bronze/Early Iron Ages. Furthermore, also an impact of earthquakes on regional Early Iron Age settlements was suggested. However, regional paleoenvironmental changes and paleoseismicity were not systematically studied so far. We combined geomorphological, sedimentological, chronological and paleoecological data with hydrological modelling to reconstruct regional Holocene paleoenvironmental changes, to identify natural and human causes and to study possible seismic events during the Late Bronze/Early Iron Ages. Our results show a balanced to negative Early to Mid-Holocene water balance probably caused by forested upper slopes. Hence, no lake but a pellic Vertisol developed in the lowest plain. Following, Late Bronze/Early Iron Age forest clear-cutting caused lake formation and the deposition of lacustrine sediments derived from soil erosion. Subsequently, regional aridification caused slow lake desiccation. Remains of freshwater fishes indicate that the lake potentially offered valuable ecosystem services for regional prehistoric societies even during the desiccation period. Finally, colluvial coverage of the lake sediments during the last centuries could have been linked with hydrological extremes during the Little Ice Age. Our study demonstrates that the Holocene hydrological balance of the Shiraki Plain was and is situated near a major hydrological threshold, making the landscape very sensitive to small-scale human or natural influences with severe consequences for local societies. Furthermore, seismites in the studied sediments do not indicate an influence of earthquakes on the main and late phases of Late Bronze/Early Iron Age settlement. Altogether, our study underlines the high value of multi-disciplinary approaches to investigate human-environmental interactions and paleoseismicity in drylands on millennial to centennial time scales.