The purpose of this research is to understand and explain the TFT LCD industry phenomenon of oversupply vs. shortage and its impacts on the prices and quantities of individual TFT LCD makers. Also, to look for any fixed effects (if any exist) due to specific company and due to specific time. We employ a fixed effect model to estimate impacts of individual traded quantity on price and impacts of individual price on traded quantity. Using the panel data covering 16 makers and 24 months, our results reveal that the TFT LCD panel is highly quantity inelastic of the traded price but greatly price elastic of the traded quantity. With regard to fixed effect, the empirical result reveals there were significant time effects of price for some periods of time while there were significant time effects of quantity for some sizes of panels. Supply and demand could be one of the factors determining the time effects. As to the company fixed effect, most of company fixed effects of quantity prices were found significant whereas company fixed effects of price were not. Market shares and country of origin can be significant factors determining the company fixed effect of quantity. Keywords: Panel Data, Fixed Effect Model, Quantity Elasticity, Price Elasticity, Company Fixed Effect, Time Fixed Effect, TFT LCD

In this dissertation, I consider linear, binary response correlated random coefficient (CRC) panel data models and a truncated CRC panel data model which are frequently used in economic analysis. I focus on the nonparametric identification and estimation of panel data models under unobserved heterogeneity which is captured by random coefficients and when these random coefficients are correlated with regressors. For the analysis of linear CRC models, I give the identification conditions for the average slopes of a linear CRC model with a general nonparametric correlation between regressors and random coefficients. I construct a sqrt(n) consistent estimator for the average slopes via varying coefficient regression. The identification of binary response panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity is difficult. I base identification conditions and estimation on the framework of the model with a special regressor, which is a major approach proposed by Lewbel (1998, 2000) to solve the heterogeneity and endogeneity problem in the binary response models. With the help of the additional information on the special regressor, I can transfer a binary response CRC model to a linear moment relation. I also construct a semiparametric estimator for the average slopes and derive the sqrt(n)-normality result. For the truncated CRC panel data model, I obtain the identification and estimation results based on the special regressor method which is used in Khan and Lewbel (2007). I construct a sqrt(n) consistent estimator for the population mean of the random coefficient. I also derive the asymptotic distribution of my estimator. Simulations are given to show the finite sample advantage of my estimators. Further, I use a linear CRC panel data model to reexamine the return from job training. The results show that my estimation method really makes a difference, and the estimated return of training by my method is 7 times as much as the one estimated without considering the correlation between the covariates and random coefficients. It shows that on average the rate of return of job training is 3.16% per 60 hours training.

Neste trabalho busca-se analisar de que forma a desigualdade de renda em um país como o Brasil pode afetar as taxas de crescimento econômico. Depois de se apontar as possíveis causas da desigualdade e os principais modelos que estudam os efeitos que a diferença de rendimentos pode ter sobre o crescimento, aplicam-se, especialmente, modelos não-lineares para dados em painel com o intuito de descobrir a real relação entre essas variáveis no Brasil. Após realizar esses testes para o caso brasileiro mostrou-se que a relação negativa entre a desigualdade e o crescimento aparece com grande regularidade empírica, e, além disso, observou-se que variações na desigualdade, em qualquer direção, estão associadas com uma menor taxa de crescimento no período seguinte. / This paper analyses how the income inequality in a country like Brazil can affect the economic growth rates. After showing possible causes of inequality and the main models which observe the effects of income differences over growth, the article applies non-linear methods to panel data to detect the true relation between these variables in Brazil. After rebuilding these tests for Brazilian case, we show that an increase in the level of economic inequality has a significant negative relationship with subsequent economic growth, and moreover, it is possible conclude that changes in inequality, in any direction, are associated with reduced growth in the next period.

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é estudar empiricamente o processo de formação de expectativas inflacionárias no Brasil, no período recente (pós metas de inflação), através de um modelo conexionista, que aproxima a forma como os agentes fazem previsões. A coordenação das expectativas do mercado em relação à inflação futura é um aspecto crucial do regime de metas de inflação. Dessa forma, entender os fatores que afetam tais expectativas é de grande relevância para o direcionamento adequado da política monetária. Os dados para expectativas de inflação utilizados são provenientes da pesquisa FOCUS do Banco Central do Brasil, e constituem um painel de dados não balanceado. Os resultados obtidos nos permitem afirmar que a maior influência sobre as expectativas inflacionárias no período como um todo foi da volatilidade cambial, seguida pela variação no preço das commodities, pela defasagem de ordem um das expectativas, pela variação cambial e pela meta. Em menor magnitude, afetam as expectativas o resultado primário do governo, a defasagem de ordem dois e a taxa Selic. O comportamento desse efeito ao longo do tempo foi verificado através da análise de sensibilidade do produto da rede em resposta a cada uma das variáveis. No período de crise de confiança, há um expressivo descolamento das expectativas em relação à meta, com um aumento do efeito das demais variáveis. Resultado inverso ocorre no período pós-crise: o efeito da meta de inflação aumenta e das demais variáveis tende a se reduzir, ainda que em alguns casos tais efeitos sejam expressivos (como da defasagem de ordem um e da volatilidade cambial). Isso nos leva a concluir que o Banco Central vem consolidando sua credibilidade ao longo do tempo, mas que há ainda espaço para melhorias. / This work aims to empirically study the formation process of inflationary expectations in Brazil, in the recent period (after the introduction of the inflation targeting policy) by a connexionist model that approaches the way agents forecast. The coordination of market expectations in relation to the future inflation is a crucial aspect of the inflation targeting. This way, understanding the factors that affect such expectations has great relevance for the adequate aiming of the monetary policies. The data for inflation expectations used in this work are from the FOCUS research of the Brazilian Central Bank, and it constitutes a unbalanced data panel. The results obtained allow us to affirm that the biggest influence on the inflationary expectations in the period as a whole was from exchange rate volatility, followed by the commodities prices variation, by the first order lag of the expectations, by the exchange rate variation and by the target. In lesser magnitude, the primary result of the government, the second order lag and the Selic tax affect the expectations. The behavior of this effect throughout the time was verified through the analysis of sensitivity of the product of the network in reply to each one of the inputs. In the period of reliable crisis, there is an expressive shift of the expectations in relation to the target, with an increase of the effect of the other variables. Inverse result occurs in the after-crisis period: the effect of the inflation target increases and of the other variables tend to be reduced, despite in some cases such effect are expressive (as the first order lag and exchange rate volatility). Thus we may conclude that the Brazilian Central Bank has been consolidating its credibility throughout the time, but there is still an open space for improvements.

Este trabalho estuda o desempenho do comércio externo brasileiro no período 1999-2005, especialmente a evolução do saldo comercial, das exportações e das importações de vários produtos da indústria nacional. Além de fazer uma análise da composição do saldo, estimam-se as funções valor das exportações e valor das importações de produtos industriais, de acordo com a classificação por produto do Sistema de Contas Nacionais do IBGE, através da técnica econométrica de painel. Os principais resultados mostram a importância do ambiente internacional e da demanda doméstica para explicar os resultados comerciais brasileiros, o primeiro com influência positiva e o segundo, negativa. A taxa de câmbio é considerada uma variável relevante apenas para explicar o valor das importações. / This thesis investigates the performance of the Brazilian foreign trade in the period 1999-2005, particularly the evolution of the trade balance, the exports and the imports of several national industrial products. Apart from performing an analysis of the trade balance, it estimates the exports value and the imports value of industrial goods through econometric panel data, according to the IBGE (Brazilian Bureau of Data) classification sector. The main results show the importance of the international commerce and of the domestic demand so as to explain the Brazilian trade results, the former with positive influence and the latter with negative. The exchange rate is significative only to explain the imports value.

FREITAS, Luzineide de Andrade de. Os efeitos da desigualdade social na mortalidade infantil no Brasil (1992 a 2011). 2017. 28f. - Dissertação (mestrado) – Universidade Federal do Ceará, Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Atuária e Contabilidade, Mestrado Profissional em Economia do Setor Público, Fortaleza (CE), 2017. / Submitted by CAEN PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA (mpe@caen.ufc.br) on 2017-11-10T17:41:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_lafreitas.pdf: 416072 bytes, checksum: 1dfc7bc971dfdbb2a40cc834bfe41de8 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Márcia Araújo (marcia_m_bezerra@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-11-13T11:11:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_lafreitas.pdf: 416072 bytes, checksum: 1dfc7bc971dfdbb2a40cc834bfe41de8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-13T11:11:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_lafreitas.pdf: 416072 bytes, checksum: 1dfc7bc971dfdbb2a40cc834bfe41de8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 / The paper aims to analyze the effects of income inequality on the infant mortality rate, analyzing for other determinants such as the level of education, poverty and per capita income for all units of the federation in Brazil from 1992 to 2011. The infant mortality rate is a social indicator that reflects the quality of life of a given population. For this purpose, econometric models of panel data were used. It was verified that the income inequality and all analyzed variables affect the infant mortality rates in the analyzed period. Thus, among the main conclusions obtained, the need for public investments geared to economic growth combined with income deconcentration and poverty reduction followed by better levels of education are essential in the process of reducing the infant mortality rate. / O trabalho tem como objetivo principal analisar os efeitos da desigualdade de renda no indicador de saúde mortalidade infantil, considerando outros determinantes como o nível de educação, pobreza e renda per capita para todas as unidades da federação no Brasil no período de 1992 a 2011. A taxa de mortalidade infantil é um indicador social que reflete a qualidade de vida de uma determinada população. Para essa finalidade, utilizou-se modelos econométricos de dados em painel. Verificou-se que a desigualdade de renda e todas as variáveis analisadas afetam as taxas de mortalidade infantil no período analisado. Assim, dentre as principais conclusões obtidas, constata-se a necessidade de investimentos públicos direcionados para o crescimento econômico aliado com desconcentração de renda e redução da pobreza seguidos de melhores níveis de educação são essenciais no processo de redução da taxa de mortalidade infantil.

Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre Economia do Empreendedorismo. O primeiro deles trata sobre os determinantes do empreendedorismo no Brasil a partir de modelos de escolha ocupacional, usando os microdados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra por Domicílios (PNAD) do ano de 2012. A estratégia empírica adotada empregou os modelos de escolha discreta na estimação da escolha ocupacional. Os resultados demonstraram que existem efeitos significativos para as variáveis: anos de estudos iniciais, sexo, estado civil assim como pensionista e aposentado. Para completar a análise foram estimadas as equações de rendimento, as quais explicam a escolha pela ocupação empreendedora em função dos ganhos relativos ao trabalho assalariado. Já o segundo ensaio tem como objetivo apresentar uma evidência empírica para a relação existente entre empreendedorismo e corrupção nos estados brasileiros, utilizando uma abordagem teórica e empírica. Este artigo utiliza um indicador objetivo de corrupção governamental estadual baseado no Cadastro de Contas Irregulares do Tribunal de Contas da União (CADIRREG) como proxy para a corrupção regional e a abertura de novas empresas per capita como medida para a atividade empreendedora. Foram utilizados o método de dados de painel estático, dinâmico e o método GMMSYS, estes últimos empregados para corrigir possíveis problemas de endogeneidade. Os resultados encontrados mostraram-se coerentes com a hipótese teórica “grease in the wheels”, na qual a corrupção influencia positivamente a atividade empreendedora em países em desenvolvimento com elevada burocracia. Por fim, o terceiro ensaio avalia os impactos do empreendedorismo via inovação a partir do Global Trade Analysis Project – GTAP, um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC), destacando os impactos no crescimento econômicoe no bem-estar geral da economia. Os resultados mostraram-se coerentes com a literatura da Economia do Empreendedorismo, mostrando que aumento no empreendedorismo conduz a uma elevação no crescimento econômico e bem-estar. / This thesis consists of three essays on the Economics Entrepreneurship. The first deals with the determinants of entrepreneurship in Brazil from occupational choice models, using the data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) of 2012. The empirical strategy adopted has employed discrete choice models in the estimation of occupational choice. The results showed that there are significant effects on the variables: years of initial studies, gender, marital status as well as pensioners and retired. To complete the analysis were estimated earnings equations, which explains the choice by the entrepreneurial occupation in terms of earnings for paid employment. The second test aims to present empirical evidence for the relationship between entrepreneurship and corruption in the Brazilian states, using a theoretical and empirical approach. This article uses an objective indicator of state government corruption based on the Register of Irregular accounts of the Court of Audit (CADIRREG) as a proxy for regional corruption and the opening of new companies per capita as a measure for regional entrepreneurial activity. They used the method of static panel data, dynamic and GMM-SYS method to correct the endogeneity problem. The results proved to be consistent with the theoretical hypothesis "grease in the wheels" in which corruption positively influence the entrepreneurial activity in developing countries with high bureaucracy. Finally, the third test evaluates the impacts of entrepreneurship via innovation from the Global Trade Analysis Project - GTAP, a model of computable general equilibrium (CGE), highlighting the impacts on economic growth and overall well-being economy. The results were consistent with the literatureof Entrepreneurship Economics, showing that increased entrepreneurship leads to a rise in economic growth and well-being.

Nota-se que, entre os inícios das décadas de 1990 e 2000, destacando-se, de forma mais evidente o meio dos anos 1990, ocorreu um expressivo fluxo de inversões espanholas em direção à América Latina. Esse montante chegou a representar, em alguns anos, mais de 30% do total de investimento externo recebido pelos países latino-americanos. Apesar desse expressivo aporte de inversões das empresas espanholas na América Latina, não se encontra um significativo número de trabalhos sobre esse tema, ao passo que, ao se buscar análises que utilizem a metodologia estatística, esse número se reduz consideravelmente. Com efeito, a tese aqui apresentada busca identificar os componentes macroeconômicos determinantes do movimento recente de internacionalização produtiva da economia espanhola na América Latina, empregando, basicamente, uma metodologia econométrica de dados em painel, caracterizando os push-pull factors dessa dinâmica. Para uma melhor compreensão da estrutura do modelo econométrico utilizado e, também, das respostas estatísticas alcançadas neste trabalho, faz-se primeiramente uma revisão nos conceitos teóricos das principais escolas econômicas relacionadas aos determinantes dos gastos com investimento em geral. Em seguida, apresentam-se as principais referências teóricas que tratam exclusivamente do investimento estrangeiro direto (IED). Também abordam-se a caracterização da metodologia de dados em painel, com seus respectivos estimadores, e os testes de especificação estatística utilizados. Por fim, já delimitadas as investigações teóricas e a metodologia usada neste trabalho, expõem-se os resultados encontrados. Com efeito, chegou-se a resultados estatísticos suportados por outros trabalhos que analisaram o mesmo tema, porém, com uma abordagem metodológica diversa. Ou seja, o IED espanhol direcionado à América Latina teve como push factors, basicamente, o nível de atividade da economia espanhola, com uma relação positiva, e a absorção interna desse país, com uma relação negativa. A primeira variável possibilita uma significativa acumulação interna às empresas da Espanha. Já o segundo componente aponta para a expectativa de não crescimento da demanda interna desse país ibérico. Os pull factors que, especificados a partir de uma relação positiva com o IED espanhol, se tornaram estatisticamente significativos foram: o tamanho de mercado, a absorção interna, a produtividade, uma variável binária que representa as privatizações, a taxa de câmbio nominal da moeda local contra o Euro e o grau de abertura. Assim, conclui-se que o processo de privatizações e a desvalorização da moeda local frente ao Euro na América Latina possibilitaram um movimento de internacionalização produtiva de alguns subsetores da Espanha que visavam a um aumento de escala, propiciando enfrentar a concorrência de empresas instaladas no mercado comum europeu. / An expressive inflow of investments from Spain towards Latin America occurred between the beginning of 1990’s and 2000’s, especially in the middle of 1990’s. This sum has come to represented in some years more than 30% of total foreign investment received by Latin-American countries. Despite this significant investments inflow from Spanish companies in Latin America, there is not an expressive number of papers related to the subject. Besides, works using statistical methodology are even rarer. The hypothesis encompassed at the present work aims at identifying the macroeconomic determinants to a recent movement of productive internationalization of Spanish economy in Latin America. For this purpose, a panel data econometric methodology has been used, revealing the pushpull factors of this dynamics. For a better understanding of both econometric model structure and reached statistical responses, first it was conducted a revision of theoretical concepts of the main economic schools regarding determinants to investment expenditures in general. Next, it is presented the major theoretical references that deal exclusively with foreign direct investment (FDI). The characterization of panel data methodology, with its respective estimators and statistical specification tests, is also covered. Finally, after having narrowed down theoretical investigation and the methodology applied in this study, the results achieved are discussed. In effect, reached statistical results are in conformity with those supported by other works that had the same issue under consideration, but used different methodological approaches. Hence, the push factors to Spanish FDI directed to Latin America were basically the level of economic activity in Spain, as a positive relation, and absorption rate in this country, as a negative relation. The first variable enabled a significant capital accumulation to Spanish companies. On the other hand, the second component points to the expectation of non-growth of this country’s domestic demand. The pull factors that have become statistically significant were market size, absorption rate, productivity, trade openness, a binary variable that represented privatizations, and nominal exchange rate of local currency against Euro, all of them with a positive relation to the Spanish FDI. Thus, it’s possible to conclude that process of privatizations and devaluation of Latin-American local currencies against Euro allowed a movement of productive internationalization of some subsectors in Spain, which aimed to increase their scale gains in order to face competition from companies installed in European market.

This study examines empirically the transition, persistence, and loan demand in the rural credit market using panel data. The data was collected for seven rounds (1994-2009) from 15 villages in Ethiopia. The sample size is about 1500 households for each round. . Chapter one examines the determinants of simultaneous borrowing and lending. We also investigate why some households in rural Ethiopia simultaneously borrow and lend. Who are these households? Panel logit model is estimated for the sub-sample of borrowers and lenders. The result suggests that households that simultaneously borrows and lends are relatively better-off households. The probability of being a simultaneous borrower and lender is higher for households with strong village level networks. Moreover, households that are affected by common shock are more likely to be a simultaneous borrower and lender. Chapter two examines the dynamics and persistence in the rural credit markets in Ethiopia. It also examines the determinants of dynamics and persistence in borrowing and lending. Duration, dynamic probit, and dynamic multinomial logit models are estimated. We control for unobserved heterogeneity and initial condition. The result reveals the existence of positive duration dependence in both only borrowing households and simultaneously lending and borrowing households. The longer the duration as a borrower, the more likely to exit from borrowing. The longer the duration out of borrowing, the more likely to re-enter to borrowing. Off-farm work, fertilizer use, household size, and storing crop are an important determinant of the probability of exit from borrowing. There is also true state dependence in lending, borrowing, and simultaneously borrowing and lending households. This means the probability of being a borrower in the current period is highly correlated with being in the same state in the previous period. Poverty status, flood, labor sharing, membership in mutual help association, total oxen owned, storing crop, off-farm activities, and fertilizer use are an important determinant of the probability of being a borrower. Chapter three examines the determinants of demand for credit in rural Ethiopia. Bias due to data truncation, variation of the interest rate, and using loan data from a single source are the challenges in estimating demand for credit in the context of rural credit market. This study captures data truncation by estimating a panel Tobit model. The variation in the interest rate is also controlled by using village dummies and their interaction with the source of the loan. Total loan obtained from multiple sources is used as a dependent variable. The result reveals that initial endowment proxied by the value of assets, household size, the age of the head of the households, transitory income, and real per capita consumption are the most important determinants of demand for credit.

In this paper we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of 40 quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path. To analyse these discrete-valued panel data, we apply a new method of Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis based on inhomogeneous first order Markov transition processes with time-varying transition matrices. In addition, a mixtureof- experts approach allows us to model the probability of belonging to a certain cluster as depending on a set of covariates via a multinomial logit model. Our cluster analysis identifies five career patterns after plant closure and reveals that some workers cope quite easily with a job loss whereas others suffer large losses over extended periods of time.