The relationship between health and globalization may be constructed on improving public health through the flow of personnel, the import of medication, the quality improvement of drinking water, the utility of new medical technology, and the use of new medication on patients. Some scholars have pointed out that globalization may affect life expectancy from four aspects as income, education, nutrition, and public health. Unlike the existing literature primarily focuses on the correlation between health expenditure and GDP (gross domestic product), we examine to see whether a cointegration relationship between GDP and health expenditure exists under the impact of globalization by applying the panel cointegration test of Pedroni (1999, 2004) which allows heterogeneous data analysis and the Fully Modified OLS test. This paper mainly conducts a cross-continental comparison by using the data in the period from 1995 to 2004 of an estimate sample of 87 developing countries which consists of 12 European countries, 21 Central and South American countries, 20 Asian countries, and 34 African countries. The result shows that the existence of a cointegration relationship between GDP and health expenditure in both the overall developing countries and the cross-continental sample countries. Generally, investment of health and a fast pace of globalization progress boost GDP; especially in Europe and Asia, globalization is a very important factor in influencing the effectiveness of health expenditure upon GDP. In central and south America, the effect of globalization on the effectiveness of GDP to health expenditure is the most significant. The findings of this paper offer future researchers a different aspect for viewing and studying the correlation between health expenditure and GDP.

Yes / This study considers the effects of financial development on output in a panel cointegration framework, focusing on the implications of trade and financial openness. Our analysis indicates that after controlling for cross-sectional dependence, the typical relationship between finance and output does not hold in the long run. This relationship, however, is re-established once we account for economic openness. While trade openness emerges as more important for developing countries, financial openness is more important for advanced economies. In the long run, causality runs from financial development to output in the advanced economies, while in developing economies causality is bidirectional. There is no short-run causality between financial development and output, however.

Whether we would like to model imports and exports, or forecast inflation, structural variation in an economy frequently causes problems. This thesis examines such variation in two dimensions: first, in a cross-section of individuals, and secondly, over time. A panel of manufacturing industries in several developed countries reveals that there is substantial variation across sectors, in the response of trade to changes in prices and incomes. Ignoring this heterogeneity can render conventional results biased and inconsistent, so a number of robust methods are used to obtain reliable estimates of long-run and short-run trade relationships. The findings point to common behaviour across sectors, which could be due to similarities in technology. The impact of structural breaks over time is examined in the second part of the thesis. Unpredictable shifts in deterministic terms such as the mean of a process are shown to generate significant forecast failure, and even the methods used to evaluated forecast accuracy are affected. Using the Kullback-Leibler discrepancy to measure the size of forecast errors, various robust mechanisms are discussed, that do not fail systematically after a break. Although they can provide a degree of insurance if a shift does occur, this comes at a cost if there is no change, and in the presence of measurement error they can exacerbate the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. An empirical illustration with a model of UK money demand provides some support for the automatic correction mechanisms, although there does seem to be a role for direct modeling of a break process.

This dissertation includes two different empirical models about the economic growth and globalization in developed and developing countries from 1970 to 2008. First, we apply the quantile cointegration model provided by Xiao (2009) to examine the non-linear relationship between economic growth and globalization. Our empirical findings provide not only strong evidence that the cointegrating coefficients follow the time-varying process, but also the viewpoint of a long-run approach that overall globalization and their three dimensions act as engines of economic growth. Second, we adopt an advanced panel cointegration method which incorporates multiple structural breaks to examine the growth-globalization relationship. Differing from the weak outcomes of the traditional panel ointegration test without breaks, our findings provide strong evidence that overall globalization and its social dimension are cointegrated with RGDP both in developed and developing samples, and most of the structural break points are discovered in several main events. In addition, in evaluating whether or not the structural breaks affect the RGDP through globalization, we discover that the globalization have a directly positive impact on RGDP but indirectly exhibit negative (positive) impacts on real output via the channel of globalization in developed (developing) samples. Also, Different countries/groups reflect the different outcomes from the common shock of break event under the process of globalization. For the entire performance, the overall globalization brings the most positive effect on the real output in developed samples, and the social globalization is the main factor of promoting the economic development in developing samples.

There are gradually prosperous trades in foreign exchange markets, agents could hedge, speculate and arbitrage in markets. Market efficiency therefore is worthy of investigate in international finance. According to simple market efficiency hypothesis, the long-run relationship wound exist between spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate as foreign exchange markets are efficient. In the purpose of this study is to examine the long-run relationship between spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate by cointegration theory. We consider a new method¡Ðpanel cointegration that data sets contain not only time series also corss sections, to re-examine the relationship between spot and forward exchange rates. Conclusively, the results of cointegration relationships exist between spot and forward exchange rates in Taiwan, Singapore, Japanese, and Canada by applying panel cointegration model.

The studies of exchange rate theory in international finance are divided into several schools. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is one important hypothesis in both the Monetary Exchange Rate theory and the main theory in the Open Macroeconomics Model. Although many models are found upon the existence of PPP, but it still has not been proved empirically. That is why it¡¦s important to examine the existence of PPP. In the past, the statistic analyzing processes are all made directly under the models since all variables have been assumed stationary. However, regressing two non-stationary variables may result in Spurious Regression. The Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Test are developed in order to avoid the problem of spurious regression. Therefore, Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Test should be applied to the variables before estimating during regression analyses. Concerning the power deficiency of Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Test, many researches have adopted the combination time-series and cross-section Panel Data Model in order to improve the power and limitation of small samples. The Panel-Unit Root Test and Panel-Cointegration Test have therefore been developed to avoid Spurious Regression. However, Panel-Unit Root Test and Panel-Cointegration Test are applied with long time-series and large cross-section. Nevertheless, obtaining the data has always been the toughest difficulty during empirical researches, let alone the need for long period and large unit data. These Panel Data Models can only be applied to studies for long period, but not to the short periods. In order to avoid these problems; Binder, Hsiao and Pesaran (2004) have developed the Short Panel Vector Autoregressions (sPVAR) Model, a Panel Data Model developed with short time-series and large cross-section. Therefore, this paper will focus on Purchasing Power Parity under the sPVAR Model with the examination of PPP for the 30 countries since the introduction of Euro (1998 to 2004).

This paper offers a re-assessment of the finance-growth nexus in a framework that allows to distinguish between short-run versus long-run effects. Our dataset contains information on 45 developed and developing countries over the period 1995-2011. We make use of the integration and cointegration properties of the data, establish a cointegrating relation and derive the long-run elasticities of per capita GDP with respect to employment, the physical capital stock, and financial development. We employ these results to specify an error correction model and assess whether the years of crisis have changed the relationship between finance and growth. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This thesis examines the exchange rate pass-through into consumer prices in Central and Eastern Europe. The study is based on quarterly data of 12 countries from 2003 to 2013. Estimations are conducted using heterogeneous panel cointegration methods, namely the mean group and the pooled mean group estimators. Fixed effects are used as a reference. The thesis provides short- run and long-run estimates of the exchange rate pass-through for the individual countries and for the region as a whole. Based on the results, we conclude that the exchange rate pass-through is highly variable across Central and Eastern Europe. We find that there is no clear distinction between the pass-through rates in euro area countries, EU countries not using the euro and non- EU countries. Further, we find that the generally accepted concept of higher exchange rate pass- though in developing countries does not hold in this region. JEL Classification C23, E31, E52, F31 Keywords exchange rate pass-through, pooled mean group, mean group, heterogeneous panel cointegration Author's e-mail bara.mirkova@centrum.cz Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com

Apesar da recente queda no crescimento das exportações, a resposta das vendas externas à valorização cambial tem sido mais lenta do que previa a teoria econômica. Essas evidências sugerem a lentidão na correção dos desvios de uma relação de longo prazo entre o câmbio e as exportações, motivando a pesquisa sobre a presença de hysteresis no comércio brasileiro. O objetivo deste estudo é confirmar as predições da teoria de hysteresis em nível macroeconômico para as exportações manufaturadas brasileiras. Para isso, propõe-se um diferencial metodológico: a inclusão, nos modelos de oferta e demanda de exportações, de variável representativa de hysteresis, construída segundo o método de Piscitelli et al. (2000), testando sua significância nas equações. São utilizados modelos com dados em painel, metodologia que permite lidar com efeitos específicos aos setores industriais e realizar testes de hysteresis para o total das exportações manufaturadas a partir de informações desagregadas, proporcionado maior eficiência na estimação. Além disso, é investigada a estacionariedade das séries de dados, realizando testes para raiz unitária e cointegração em painel. Também são estimados os parâmetros das relações de longo prazo entre as variáveis. Os resultados confirmam a hipótese de uma relação de hysteresis, em especial, nas equações de demanda por exportações brasileiras. / In spite of the recent fall of the growth rate of Brazilian exports, the response of external sales to the appreciation of the exchange rate has been slower than what was predicted by economic theory. These evidences suggest that deviations from a long-run relationship between exchange rate and exports may take longer to be corrected, motivating the investigation of the presence of hysteresis in Brazilian international trade. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the theory of macro-hysteresis to Brazilian manufactured exports. Thus, a distinct methodology is proposed: including a hysteretic variable in the equations of export supply and demand as an explanatory variable. This variable is constructed as the method developed by Piscitelli et al. (2000) and will be tested in order to assess its power in capturing the hysteretic effect. This study uses panel data which allow for heterogeneity among the industrial sectors and admits testing the hysteresis hypothesis in the aggregate exports through disaggregated information; hence, panel data will lead to more efficiency when estimating models. Furthermore, the stationarity of the data series is investigated through panel unit root and cointegration tests and the long run relationship parameters are estimated. Results confirm the hypothesis of the presence of a hysteretic relationship, especially in the demand equations.

In this paper we use the long-term empirical relationship among primary energy consumption, real income, physical capital, population and technology, obtained by averaged panel error correction models, to project the long-term primary energy consumption of 56 countries up to 2100. In forecasting long-term primary energy consumption, we work with four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework, assuming different challenges to adaptation and mitigation. We find that in all scenarios, China, the United States and India will be the largest energy consumers, while highly growing countries will also significantly contribute to energy use. We observe for most scenarios a sharp increase in global energy consumption, followed by a levelling-out and a decrease towards the second half of the century. The reasons behind this pattern are not only slower population growth, but also infrastructure saturation and increased total factor productivity. This means, as countries move towards more knowledge based societies, and higher energy efficiency, their primary energy usage is likely to decrease as a result. Global primary energy consumption is expected however to increase significantly in the coming decades, thus increasing the pressure on policy makers to cope with the questions of energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation at the same time. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series