Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1972. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

China's soaring surpluses from 2005 - 2010 have attracted international criticism. This thesis evaluates China's current balance of payments and its underlying factors.

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N/A / Thesis / Bachelor of Arts (BA)

本文扩展了由Chari, Kehoe和McGrattan最初开创的Business Cycle Accounting 方法，利用两国开放经济模型研究中国经常账波动的根源。本文从模型得出的五个一阶条件方程和两个产出方程中，量化衡量了代表不同市场扭曲程度的7个变量。其中包括两国分别的生产力扭曲程度、劳动市场扭曲程度、资本市场扭曲程度，以及两国风险共担的程度。本文通过将得出的代表市场扭曲程度的变量逐一逆向回代入模型中，进一步分解了各个变量对中国经常账波动的贡献度。利用1978年至2010年中国和美国的数据，本文得出结论认为中国的经常账波动与劳动力市场扭曲具有最密切的关系，其次是资本市场扭曲。生产力的提高和中美两国的风险共担程度对中国经常账的影响甚微。同时结果表明，中美两国的真实利率差距也对中国经常账有显著影响，中国的真实利率相对美国而言较高。 / This paper extends the original Business Cycle Accounting exercise developed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan to a two-country open economy model. To identify the sources of China’s current account fluctuations, I measure seven wedges from five first-order conditions and two productivity functions, including the productivity wedges, labor wedges, and investment wedges in both China and the US, as well as the risk sharing wedge between the two countries. Then I incorporate the measured wedges back into the model to decompose their contributions to the behavior of real current account. With the use of real data (beginning 1978) on China and the US, the accounting procedures suggest that the behavior of China’s current account is best explained by labor wedges, followed by investment wedges. The productivity wedges and risk sharing wedge between the two countries impose minor effects. Results also indicate that the spread of real interest rates in China and the US significantly influences China’s current account surplus, and that the real interest rates in China is relatively higher than those of the United States. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Yuan, Xiaochuan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-76). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / 摘要 --- p.ii / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature on the Current Account of China --- p.3 / Chapter 2.1 --- Saving and investment --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Financial imperfections --- p.5 / Chapter 2.3 --- Exchange rate --- p.7 / Chapter 2.4 --- Income and growth --- p.9 / Chapter 2.5 --- Multiple reasons --- p.10 / Chapter 2.6 --- Improvement policies --- p.11 / Chapter 3 --- Facts on China’s Current Account --- p.13 / Chapter 4 --- Two-Country Open Economy Model --- p.19 / Chapter 4.1 --- Household --- p.19 / Chapter 4.2 --- Firm --- p.20 / Chapter 4.3 --- Government --- p.21 / Chapter 4.4 --- Two-country problem --- p.21 / Chapter 4.5 --- Definitions of the wedges --- p.23 / Chapter 5 --- Measuring the Wedges --- p.25 / Chapter 6 --- Accounting Procedure --- p.32 / Chapter 7 --- Further Implications --- p.38 / Chapter 8 --- Conclusions --- p.41 / Chapter 9 --- Data Appendix --- p.46 / Chapter 9.1 --- Data source --- p.46 / Chapter 9.2 --- Variables --- p.46 / Chapter 9.3 --- Parameters --- p.49 / Chapter 9.4 --- Robust check --- p.50 / Chapter 10 --- References --- p.71

This dissertation has two objectives. The first is to modify the existing Present Value Model of the Current Account (PVMCA) to reflect the major features of the Nigerian economy and to determine if this resulting theoretical framework is valid for the analysis of the Nigerian current account for the period 1960--97. The second objective is to examine the excessiveness and sustainability of the Nigerian current account deficits during this period. / To achieve these objectives, the thesis presents a model of current account determination that is based upon the permanent-income hypothesis of private consumption behavior. We derive a present value relationship among the current account, expected changes in net output and a consumption-based real interest rate. This thesis then extends this framework to incorporate changes in the terms of trade and possible asymmetric access to the international financial markets. It also conducts an empirical estimation of the several variants of the PVMCA. The econometric results show that an intertemporal model of current account determination that includes changes in the interest rate, exchange rate and terms of trade outperforms one that excludes them. / This thesis represents the first attempt to use an intertemporal model of the current account and selected macroeconomic and structural indicators to assess the external position of the Nigerian economy. The empirical results support the hypothesis that current account deficits accompanied by macroeconomic instability and structural weaknesses can generate an external crisis.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 1982. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-94).

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