Information systems analysis was done for the computerization of an existing long range financial planning model, in case study form. The model, that of Lockheed Petroleum Services Limited, was analyzed and recommendations for model sophistication were made. Computerization was justified by projected cost reduction and several other advantages which were judged to outweigh the disadvantages of computerization. Implications of computerization and difficulties of information systems analysis were described. Results of the study were the design of a detailed algorithm and of ancillary documents making future computer programming, verification, and implementation easily achievable. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

National Science Foundation Grant no. SIA75-00739

The purpose of this study was to develop a probabilistic model that could be used by petroleum refiners to evaluate the economic potential of refinery capital investment proposals. The following two requirements were placed on the development at the outset: (1) that the model use linear programming to simulate refinery operations; and (2) that the model keep computer time within reasonable bounds. A probabilistic model was developed that requires the following steps for its application: (1) use linear programming to simulate both the operations of the existing refinery and the operations assuming that the investment is made; (2) select two variables that can be treated as probabilistic variables and assign either a theoretical or a subjective probability distribution to represent future values for the two variables; (3) develop return on investment interpolation data by computing a return on investment for all pair combinations of three tenth year values for each of the two probabilistic variables; (4) develop a return on investment distribution by selecting values at random from the two probability distributions and interpolating among the interpolation data to obtain return on investment data; (5) interpret the return on investment distribution. The model was applied to an actual refining situation that involved determining the expected internal rate of return of a proposed hydrocracker addition to a United States refinery. Total computer time required to evaluate the hydrocracker proposal was about 159 minutes. Accuracy of the interpolation feature of the model was also determined during the application. The average error of ten interpolated return figures that were selected at random for the accuracy check was 1.89 per cent.

Typescript. / Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1989. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves [127]-130). / Microfiche. / ix, 130 leaves, bound ill. 29 cm

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Successful merger and acquisitions (M & A) from a financial perspective increases shareholder value. This paper examines the effect of corporate mergers and acquisitions (M & A) on shareholder value. A discussion on shareholder value follows with reasons why companies choose M & A as a growth strategy. The type of M & A strategy affects the value it creates. A literature review of M & A activity during the five periods in the twentieth century, referred to as merger waves, provides an understanding of the conditions which precipitate M & A activity. However, failure of companies that engage in M & A activity has not resulted in a decline in the popularity of M & A. This study identifies and subsequently analyses data (profitability ratios) on 34 upstream oil and gas companies that have engaged in M & A activity. Profitability ratios indicate the financial performance of a company and ultimately shareholder value. In order to obtain the best possible insights into the behaviour of the identified variables and their impact on shareholder value, the specific variables are empirically tested over different time periods through the application of two statistical tests performed on the data. The empirical analysis is based on a total of 324 observations gathered by Evaluate Energy for global oil and gas companies and covers the period 1995 to 2005. The results of the different testing methods, although subject to certain limitations, give reason to believe that the M & A leads to an erosion of shareholder value. Hence the appropriate reasons for embarking on an M & A strategy and the comprehensive pre-acquisition evaluation thereof, is tantamount to M & A success. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vanuit ‘n finansiële oogpunt kan suksesvolle samesmeltings en aanskaffings (S & A) aandeelhouers-waarde verhoog en hierdie werkstuk ontleed die effek wat korporatiewe S & A’s op aandeelhouers-waarde het. ‘n Bespreking oor aandeelhouers-waarde volg en verskaf redes waarom maatskappye S & A’s as ‘n groeistrategie verkies en hoe die tipe S & A strategie wat gevolg word die waarde wat dit skep affekteer. Gedurende die 20ste eeu was daar vyf tydperke waarin S & A aktiwiteite hoog was, die sogenaamde “merger waves” en ‘n ontleding van literatuur gedurende hierdie tydperke verskaf ‘n begrip van die omstandighede wat aanleiding gee tot S & A aktiwiteite. Alhoewel sommige S & A’s onsuksesvol is, bly dit ‘n populêre keuse by maatskappye om aandeelhouers-waarde te probeer verhoog. Hierdie studie identifiseer en analiseer data (winsgewendheids-verhoudings) van 34 “upstream” olie- en gasmaatskappye wat een of ander tyd in ‘n S & A betrokke was. Winsgewendheids-verhoudings dui op die finansiële prestasie van maatskappye en uiteindelik op aandeelhouers-waarde. Ten einde die beste insae in die optrede van die geidentifiseerde veranderlikes en hul impak op aandeelhouers-waarde te kry, is die spesifieke veranderlikes numeries getoets oor verskillende tydperke deur middel van twee statistiese modelle. Die numeriese analises is gebaseer op 324 waarnemings deur Evaluate Energy op internasionale olie- en gasmaatskappye tussen 1995 en 2005. Die uitslae van die verskillende metodes van toets, ingesluit sekere beperkings, dui daarop dat S & A’s oor die algemeen lei tot ‘n vermindering in aandeelhouers-waarde en daarom is dit van kardinale belang om ‘n beproefde S & A strategie te ontwikkel voordat ‘n S & A aangepak word.