The appropriateness of inflation targeting in South Africa is examined. South Africa has adopted flexible inflation targeting, wherein considerations for other macroeconomic variables are prioritized. There is evidence of growing concern regarding South Africa’s monetary policy framework., emerging primarily from the trade union movement and the communist party. The concerns are borne out of the developmental challenges that are still facing South Africa, ranging from high unemployment, high levels of poverty and inequality, and low economic growth. In attempt to understand these concerns, the following key economic variables GDP, Manufacturing Data, Exchange Rate, and Repo Rate were investigated using both Eviews and Stat tool. To eliminate the impact of the recent global recession, the data that has been analyzed is up to 2008. The research compares two periods, namely; the pre inflation targeting period (1990 – 1999) and post inflation targeting period (2000 – 2008). The study has found that despite unemployment, inequality and economic growth having being sluggish over the years, these factors are not as a result of inflation targeting. Evidence indicates that inflation has been reduced and stabilized since the adoption of inflation targeting. This research argues that this methodology is important for South Africa’s economic development, as evident by increased output. This research concludes that the implementation of inflation targeting is appropriate for South Africa. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

The primary purpose of this thesis was to investigate if the modern Phillips Curve is valid for ASEAN five (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines) countries using a time-varying approach in the form of an ARMA-GARCH model. The method enables us to investigate how the inflation volatility reacts to economic shocks and if its history can predict the conditional variance of inflation. This study also aimed to investigate whether financial liberalisation affects the conditional variance of inflation. Moreover, we introduce a new parameter into the Phillips Curve. We propose the inclusion of a globally decomposed financial spillover index to see how it affects the inflation dynamics. Examining the period between 1996-2020, using monthly data. We find weak results, and the Phillips Curve was only valid for Singapore. Our findings also suggest that the inflation volatility is highly time-varying, indicating the suitability of the ARMA-GARCH framework. Significant coefficients in the model allow forecasting the conditional variance of inflation. The results support the idea that financial liberalisation to be volatility augmenting in some countries, suggesting a negative relationship between the degree of financial integration and received spillover effects. The globally decomposed spillover indices demonstrated weak results. For further investigations, we, therefore, propose the usage of regionally decomposed spillover indices.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fullment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Degree, June 2017 / This thesis contains three main chapters. The rst chapter employs wageprice spirals to generate ination forecasts for Australia, Canada, France, South Korea, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States. We use three competing specications of the wage-price spirals, and test which specication provides the best forecasts of price ination. For each specication we provide one quarter, four quarter and eight quarter ahead dynamic forecasts of price ination. The rst two wage-price spirals in the rst chapter are from the Keynesian tradition from te standpoint of expectations formation. The chapter also considers the New Keynesian wage-price spiral. We use the Root Means Square Error and the Clark and West statistic to compare the performance of ination forecasts from the three competing wage-price spirals that we consider in the rst chapter of the thesis. We nd that the New Keynesian wage and price specication su⁄ers from the wrong sign problem, and its forecasts of price ination generally outperform those from the old Keynesian wage price spiral for the eight quarter ahead time horizon. The usefulness of this nding to the conduct of monetary policy is limited due to the wrong sign problem of the forcing variable in the New Keynesian wageprice spiral. We also nd that the Flaschel type specication of price and wage ination produce four and eight quarter head ination forecasts that are better than those from the Fair type specication. We further nd that the Fair type specication price and wage equation produce the best forecasts of ination for the one quarter ahead time horizon. In the second chapter, we estimate natural variables and test their ability to explain the ination process for the eight countries that we consider. We use the traditional Keynesian wage-price spiral and the triangle system approaches to estimate the NAIRU and potential output. In the case of the traditional Keynesian wage-price spiral, the price Phillips curve, which can be specied as a triangle Phillips curve, features backward looking ination expectations and nominal wage ination, the output gap and supply shocks. The nominal wage Phillips curve features ination expectations and price ination and the unemployment gap. The presence of price ination in the nominal wage Phillips curve and the presence of nominal wage ination in the price Phillips curve leads to the interaction between the two Phillips curves. The separate demand pressure terms allows for their identication since, as someauthorsintheliteraturearguethatthegoodsandlabourmarketsdonot move in line with each other. To compute the NAIRU and potential output using the Keynesian approach, we rstly exploit the information contained in vector of unobservable by estimating the wage-price spiral in di⁄erence form using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression method. We use this regression method in order to control for any correlation that may exist between errors in the price and wage Phillips curves. This allows us to solve for the vector of potential output and the NAIRU. We then the moving average technique in order to avoid problems associated with the HP lter for smoothing. Due to data availability, use the MA (20) approximation of the low pass lter after padding the endpoints with forecasts from an AR(4) process. We follow a similar procedure in the estimation of the estimation of the NAIRU and potential output for the triangle system approach. To test which method produces the best natural variables, we t the gaps that are computed from the NAIRU and potential output in a simple single equation price Phillips curve. To test which specication produces the best natural varibles we use a simple single equation triangle price Phillips curve. We nd that the output gaps computed from the two competing approaches are signicantly correlated, the same applies to the unemployment gaps computed from the two approaches. We nd that the quality of unemployment rate gaps computed from the Keynesian and triangle system approach to produce similar quality of results when tted to a single equation triangle price Phillips curve. The Keynesian approach slightly outperforms the triangle systems approach in the when considering the output gap as a proxy for the demand pressure. These results indicate that the wage-price spiral still remains an important tool in the determination of the dynamics ination. In the third chapter, we analyze the relationship between monetary policy and natural variables for Australia, Canada, France, South Korea, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States. We do this by specifying a relationship between natural rates and the real interest rate. The theoretical relationship between the two variables is positive in the case of the NAIRU and negative through Okuns law in the case of potential output. We regress the natural variable against a constant and the MA(8) of the real interest rate. We nd that the parameter of the real interest rate generally has a correct sign when considering the Keynesian approach computed NAIRUs, with only four being signicant. In the case of the triangle system approach NAIRU, we nd that the real interest rate parameter has a correct sign and signicant four countries. We nd that NAIRUs computed using di⁄erent methodologies can produce a di⁄erent reference point for policy makers. We then introduce hysteresis in the relationship between monetary policy and the NAIRU. We then nd that the interest rate parameter generally has a incorrect sign across the three approaches. The HP ltering approach which we include in our study for comparison purposes produces incorrect correlation for all the countries, while the Keynesian approach negative correlation for seven countries, and the triangle system approach in six countries. In the case of the relationship between monetary policy and potential output, we nd that the real interest rate parameter has an incorrect sign. When introducing hysteresis in the relationship between monetary policy and potential we nd that, unlike in the case of the NAIRU this plays signicant role in the relationship. / XL2018

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No / Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.

The effects of monetary policy on real economic variables have been debated for some time. This debate became more intense after the discovery of the Phillips curve which appeared to show a stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This curve in its original form has now been abandoned and debate has centered around the question of a short run trade-off. It is this question, do short-run trade-offs exist and if so, why, and what affects their length, that this dissertation addresses. Chapter II explores this question in a model where the Federal Reserve does not have full credibility among all the agents in the economy and where beliefs are endogenous. It is shown that when the Federal Reserve announces a new monetary policy rule, temporary nonneutrality of money can result if some agents are skeptical of the Fed's intentions to follow the announced rule or if some agents merely believe some other agents are skeptical whether or not they truly are. The magnitude of the trade-off depends on the proportion of agents who are skeptical and how different the old and new rules are. The length of time the trade-off exists depends on how skeptical the agents are. The more skeptical they are, the longer it takes the Fed to convince these agents that it is following and will continue to follow the announced rule. Chapter III develops an empirical model to determine if the evidence supports the existence of short-run trade-offs in general and the credibility implications in particular. A Bayesian Vector Autoregression is used for the estimations. It is shown that short-run trade-offs do exist and do vary in length and magnitude. These variations are related to the implications of the credibility theory. It is found the degree of skepticism and the proportion of agents who are skeptical could have caused these short-run trade-offs to vary in length and magnitude. / Ph. D. / incomplete_metadata

The Phillips curve, which illustrates a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, has long been a cornerstone of macroeconomic models. However, it often fails to reflect reality and the flattening of the curve is widely discussed. This study addresses the question of whether a weakening of workers’ bargaining power contributed to this phenomenon. The first part of the analysis involves estimating a Kaleckian Phillips curve using Swedish time-series data to assess the impact of workers’ bargaining power on inflation. While the study does not reveal statistically significant results, the investigation offers insights into the complexities and chal- lenges with estimating the Kaleckian Phillips curve. The second part of the analysis compares the slopes of the traditional Phillips curve across OECD countries with varying trade union densities. The estimations show that the relationship between unemployment and inflation is stronger in countries with higher trade union density. This study provides important insights about the relationship between inflation and the trade unions’ bargaining power on the labour market.

Utilizando a survey junto ao consumidor da universidade de Michigan, obtivemos dados a respeito das expectativas dos agentes não só sobre inflação, mas também sobre nível de atividade (os estudos de Roberts (1997) utilizaram apenas os dados de survey sobre expectativas inflacionárias). Verificamos, então, que grande parcela do custo das estabilizações dos EUA foi antecipado pela maior parte dos agentes, o que nos levou a rejeitar os modelos de Taylor (1979, 1980) e de Calvo (1983), mesmo em suas versões com as hipóteses de falta de credibilidade e informação homogeneamente defasada. Em seguida discutimos como um modelo com fairness, pode explicar este quebra cabeças. Finalmente, examinamos, três possíveis fatores (mutuamente compatíveis): a hipótese de que parte da população tenha expectativas inconsistentes, incerteza knightiana e o modelo com fairness. Nossos resultados empíricos penderam a favor de uma combinação de pelo menos uma das duas últimas alternativas com a primeira. / Using the Michigan Universitys consumer survey, we obtained data about agents expectations of both inflation and output (the latter had not been used in Roberts (1997) studies). With this, we were able to verify that a great part of the sacrifice ratios of the US stabilizations were anticipated by common agents, rejecting the Taylor (1979, 1980) and Calvo (1983) models and, with it, the hypothesis that the only reasons underlying them are staggered contracts, homogeneous sticky information and lack in credibility. WE, then, discuss how a model with fairness can explain this puzzle. Finally, we examine three (mutually consistent) factors: the hipothesis that part of the population have inconsistent expectatitons, Knightian uncertainty and te model with fairness. The results favored the combination of at least one of the two latter alternatives with te former.