[Truncated abstract] The Swan River is a highly seasonal estuary in the south-west of Western Australia. Salinity may vary from fresh to marine at various times throughout the estuary, depending mostly on the intensity of freshwater discharge. There are occasional problematic dinoflagellate blooms which have spurred investigation of the dynamics of the phytoplankton community. The objective of this research was to examine how phytoplankton biomass and species' successions are influenced by the multiple variables in the aquatic ecosystem, and, if possible, to determine the dominant factors ... Comparisons of phytoplankton nutrient limitation simulations with experimental observations from field bioassays require further investigation, but reinforce findings that nutrients may only limit phytoplankton biomass when there is a convergence of favourable hydrological and hydrodynamic conditions. The Swan River estuary has undergone substantial hydrological modifications from pre-European settlement. Land clearing has increased freshwater discharge up to 5- fold, while weirs and reservoirs for water supply have mitigated this increase and reduced the duration of discharge to the estuary. Nutrient loads have increased approximately 20-fold from pre-European levels. The individual and collective impacts of these hydrological changes on the Swan River estuary were examined using the hydrodynamic-ecological numerical model. The simulation results indicate that despite increased hydraulic flushing and reduced residence times, increases in nutrient loads are the dominant perturbation, producing increases in the frequency and biomass of blooms by both estuarine and freshwater phytoplankton. By comparison, changes in salinity associated with altered seasonal freshwater discharge have a limited impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Reductions of nutrient inputs into the Swan River estuary from its catchment will provide a long-term improvement in water quality but manipulations of freshwater discharge have the potential to provide a provisional short-term remediation measure allowing at least partial control of phytoplankton bloom potential and eutrophication.