Memoria para optar al Título Profesional de Ingeniero Forestal / Ecuaciones altura-diámetro, de volumen, determinación de calidad de sitio y elaboración de modelos de productividad son testeados para plantaciones de pino ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) no raleadas de la comuna de Coyhaique, provincia de Coyhaique, región de Aysén. Los datos para los ajustes se obtienen de 91 parcelas instaladas en todo el rango de edades, número de árboles por hectárea y distribución geográfica de las plantaciones de pino ponderosa. Seis ecuaciones H-D (dos lineales y cuatro no lineales) de las más ampliamente usadas en pino ponderosa, son ajustadas con un set de 1.378 datos H-D obtenidas de las 91 parcelas antes indicadas. Los modelos son ajustados para cada una de las 91 parcelas y comparados según error estándar de estimación. El siguiente modelo no lineal es el escogido porque convergió más eficientemente respecto a los otros modelos no lineales y tiene más flexibilidad que las funciones lineales, además tiene un bajo error estándar de estimación.

Author's manuscript for published article. See Additional Links field for link to published version. / Ethylene production by different needle age classes was characterized using a mercuric perchlorate traps in natural populations of two ponderosa pine varieties (Pinus ponderosa var. arizonica [Engelm] Shaw and var. ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) and Jeffery pine (Pinus leffrevi Grev. and Balf.). All ozone -exposed populations contained individuals which were symptomatic and asymptomatic with respect to visible ozone injury. Ethylene production of different needle age classes was also characterized in Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa seedlings grown in open top ozone fumigation chambers. Older age class needles produce more ethylene than younger age class needles. Needles of both P. ponderosa var. ponderosa and P. jeffreyi exhibiting ozone injury in the field produced significantly (p >0.05) higher levels of ethylene than asymptomatic conspecifics. Seedlings exposed to highest treatment level of ozone in the fumigation study produced the highest levels of ethylene followed by fumigation with medium and low ozone concentrations and carbon filtered air. These data indicate that measurement of ethylene in conifer needles as a measure of stress needs to be calibrated for needle age class. It also suggests that the sensitivity of a tree to ozone injury may be regulated by the inherent ability of the individual to produce ethylene.

Time domain properties of 23 tree-ring chronologies derived from a large sample of Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine trees growing in closed-canopy forests of Colorado and New Mexico were analyzed using Box-Jenkins models. A variety of statistical criteria were employed during the identification and validation stages for evaluating the performance of different significant models, and the "best" Box-Jenkins model and its immediate "competitor" were reported for each tree-ring chronology. All series were stationary, and only one was approximately a white noise series. Overall, the ARMA(1,1) model was judged the best for 11 series, and the second for 7 of the remaining 12 series. The AR(2) model was considered the best for 6 series, and the second for 4 of the remaining 17 series. No statistical evidence was found for moving average models, nor for models with more than three different parameters. However, both cyclical (or seasonal) models and third-order autoregressive models with a null second-order parameter were chosen for some series. Fitted models explained from 7 to 51% of the variance of the original ring-index series, with an average of about 22 %. All parameter estimates were positive, and they varied within a relatively small range. From a comparison of all employed criteria, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was the one that performed best in identifying Box-Jenkins models for tree-ring chronologies. Possible distinctions were recognized that would separate the selected models according to species and /or standardization option. Among the 12 chronologies from Colorado sites, all derived using the same standardization option, most Douglas-fir series were best fitted by the ARMA(1,1) model, while most ponderosa pine series were best fitted by the AR(2) model, suggesting a difference in the biological persistence of the two species. On the other hand, most of New Mexico chronologies, developed using various standardization options, were best fitted by the ARMA(1,1) model, and no difference was found between Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine series. Also, models fitted to Colorado chronologies explained a lower amount of variance than those for New Mexico chronologies (averages of 17 versus 29% respectively), and cyclical models were mainly selected for New Mexico series. Although periodicities in Douglas-fir series were probably caused by western spruce budworm outbreaks, similar periodic patterns in ponderosa pine series were more difficult to explain because pine trees in the study area had not been defoliated by that insect. Compared to the original tree-ring chronologies, prewhitened series showed similar short-term growth patterns, reduced long-term growth fluctuations, lower standard deviations, and higher mean sensitivities. Also, cross-correlations between chronologies from the same area usually increased after prewhitening. Since the autocorrelation problem is crucial in analyzing the relationships between different time series, and in removing the biological persistence included in tree-ring chronologies, the Box-Jenkins approach should facilitate the analysis of the dynamic relationships between tree growth and environmental variables.

Increment cores are invaluable for assessing tree attributes such as inside bark diameter, radial growth, and sapwood area. However, because trees accrue growth and sapwood unevenly around their pith, tree attributes derived from one increment core may not provide sufficient precision for forest management/research activities. To assess the variability in a tree’s inside bark radius, sapwood radius, and 10-year radial growth estimated by tree cores, two increment cores at 90 degree angles were collected from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees in eastern Montana (n = 2,156). Paired core measurements varied substantially with 13% mean difference for inside bark radius, 19% mean difference for sapwood radius, and 23% mean difference for estimates of radial increment. Furthermore, decreasing crown ratio, decreasing diameter, and increasing site slope were all found to increase differences in estimates derived from paired cores. Whether for management or research purposes, the number of cores that should collected per tree depend on a stand’s susceptibility to reaction wood, required measurement precision, and budgetary constraints.

This research examined the fire history of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) forests in northwestern New Mexico. The study area included three sites in the Zuni Mountains of Cibola National Forest and one site along the boundary of El Malpais National Monument. I crossdated over 800 fire scars on 75 samples to reconstruct spatial and temporal characteristics of historic wildfire regimes. The Weibull Median Interval, Weibull Modal Interval, and Mean Fire Interval ranged from five to eight years across all sites and percent-scarred classes (all fires, 10% scarred, and 25% scarred) and indicated that low-severity wildfires occurred frequently in the study area during the period 1700 to 1880. Wildfires were historically driven by climatic variability. Superposed Epoch Analyses revealed that wetter conditions typically occurred one to three years prior to a fire event and were followed by drought during the fire year. No relationship was found between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and wildfire occurrence. These findings implied that shorter-term fluxes between wet and dry conditions, rather than longer-term climatic variability, were historically most conducive to fire occurrence. Fire frequency decreased suddenly in the late 19th century across the study area, and results indicated that fire has been absent at all sites since the 1920s. Anthropogenic disturbances including livestock grazing, timber harvesting, and fire suppression likely explain observed differences between historic and contemporary wildfire regimes in the Zuni Mountains. This research has important implications for forest management. In ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States, land managers often aim to restore historic ecological conditions. The reintroduction of a frequent, low-severity wildfire regime might restore some ecological patterns and processes, but given the strong legacy of human disturbances and the influences of human-induced climate change, a complete return to historic conditions may be neither possible nor desired.

This research examined the fire history of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) forests in northwestern New Mexico. The study area included three sites in the Zuni Mountains of Cibola National Forest and one site along the boundary of El Malpais National Monument. I crossdated over 800 fire scars on 75 samples to reconstruct spatial and temporal characteristics of historic wildfire regimes. The Weibull Median Interval, Weibull Modal Interval, and Mean Fire Interval ranged from five to eight years across all sites and percent-scarred classes (all fires, 10% scarred, and 25% scarred) and indicated that low-severity wildfires occurred frequently in the study area during the period 1700 to 1880. Wildfires were historically driven by climatic variability. Superposed Epoch Analyses revealed that wetter conditions typically occurred one to three years prior to a fire event and were followed by drought during the fire year. No relationship was found between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and wildfire occurrence. These findings implied that shorter-term fluxes between wet and dry conditions, rather than longer-term climatic variability, were historically most conducive to fire occurrence. Fire frequency decreased suddenly in the late 19th century across the study area, and results indicated that fire has been absent at all sites since the 1920s. Anthropogenic disturbances including livestock grazing, timber harvesting, and fire suppression likely explain observed differences between historic and contemporary wildfire regimes in the Zuni Mountains.This research has important implications for forest management. In ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States, land managers often aim to restore historic ecological conditions. The reintroduction of a frequent, low-severity wildfire regime might restore some ecological patterns and processes, but given the strong legacy of human disturbances and the influences of human-induced climate change, a complete return to historic conditions may be neither possible nor desired.

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 degrees C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per degrees C for P. edulis; 5.8% per. C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration-many more short droughts than long droughts-these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.

Plant macrofossils from packrat middens in two southeastern Utah caves outline development of modern plant zonation from the late Wisconsin. Allen Canyon Cave (2195 m) and Fishmouth Cave (1585 m) are located along a continuous gradient of outcropping Navajo Sandstone that extends from the Abajo Mountains south to the San Juan River. By holding the site constant, changes in the floral composition for a plot of less than one hectare can be observed, even if sporadically, over tens of millennia. At Allen Canyon Cave, engelmann spruce-alpine fir forest was replaced by the present vegetation consisting of pinyon-juniper woodland on exposed ridgetops and cliffside stands of Douglas fir, ponderosa pine, and aspen. Xerophytic woodland plants such as pinyon, Plains prickly pear, and narrowleaf yucca arrived sometime in the middle Holocene between 7200 and 3400 B.P. At Fishmouth Cave, Utah juniper in Holocene middens replaced blue spruce, limber pine, Douglas fir, and dwarf and Rocky Mountain junipers in late Wisconsin samples. Disharmonious associations for the late Wisconsin occur only at the lower site with the xerophytes Mormon tea, Plains prickly pear, and narrowleaf yucca growing alongside subalpine conifers. One possible explanation involves the late Wisconsin absence of ponderosa and pinyon pines from the Colorado Plateaus. Released from competition at their lower limits, subalpine conifers were able to expand into lower elevations and mix with xerophytic plants found today in understories of pinyon-juniper and ponderosa pine woodlands. Quantitative climatic estimates are derived for the late Wisconsin by applying vertical lapse rates for temperature and precipitation to the amount of vegetation depression. The Fishmouth Cave sequence indicates a minimum lowering of 850 m for blue spruce, limber pine, and dwarf juniper. A depression of at least 700 m for engelmann spruce and alpine fir is suggested for the Allen Canyon locality. Use of conservatively low lapse rates for stations below 2080 m yields a 3-4°C cooling from present mean annual temperature and 35 to 60 percent more rainfall than today. Steeper lapse rates associated with more mountainous terrain suggest a 5°C lowering in temperature and up to 120 percent increase over modern precipitation.