大陸政策是攸關中華民國政府安全最重要且爭議最多的公共政策，因為這項政策牽動中華民國政府對於邁向中國統一或是獨立的態度，關係台灣海峽另一個中華人民共和國是否會對台灣使用武力的問題。在國際上，目前採行「一個中國」，承認「中華人民共和國代表中國」共計一六○個國家；相對承認中華民國共有三個國家。在台灣內部，中國國民黨、民進黨及新黨這三個主要政黨，對於大陸政策何去何從的看法，未曾一致過。因此，中華民國政府的大陸政策(以下簡稱政府的大陸政策)，面臨內外交迫的壓力。如何對這樣一個複雜的決策環境予以評估，瞭解政策現行大陸政府之組織運作與決策過程，分析一般決策模式對大陸政策決策之適用性，並提出對於現行決策模式的權變運用與整合；希望能以政府大陸政策決策之個案研究，對於現行公共政策決策模式學術研究，貢獻棉薄之力。由於社會科學家經常必須在由觀察、經驗所組成的「現實世界」(theemperical world)，以及觀念、模式、理論所組成的「概念世界」( the conceptual world)之間游走，為了能夠在二個世界之間建立系統化的關係，使社會科學更能達成描述、解釋及預測社會現象的目標，本文兼採「研究促成理論」(Research -the- Theory)及「理論促成研究」(Theory - then-Research)二種方法。在第二章、第三章有關現行大陸政策之決策 環境、組織運作與決策過程的探討，是先針對現象及其特徵作一概括性的描述，並分析、抽繹其中的系統化規則，再進入第四章有關大陸政策決策模式的提出。在第四章，筆者提出社會心理過程、政治互動結果、系統維持及市場選擇等四種解釋大陸政策形成及評估的模式。這一系列步驟是以研究促成理論的方法來完成。而在第四章中，我們也評估這四種模式的適用性，並對於一般決策模式在描述單位、規範價值判斷、決策者意向及合理化與決策的工具性作用等四方面取向的影響，提出我們的意見。希望藉由現行理論或模式的探討，以理論促成研究的方式進入第五章結論部分，提出大陸政策決策模式的權變運用與整合的觀點。

This dissertation is divided into four essays, each of them having its own structure and methodological framework. Although each of the essays making the chapters of the thesis is self-contained, their topics are very closely related. Consequently, the reader will be able to follow the thesis in its unity. Essay I is a selective survey of the extensive, mostly theoretic, literature dealing with monetary policy rules. We aim at contextualization of the monetary policy rules in the existing monetary economics literature. We explain the logic, the inspiration and the history of the rules for the monetary policy conduct. We distinguish between instrument rules and targeting rules as two basic categories. Finally, we resume specific issues related to policy rules for small open economies. Essay II studies the logic of short-term interest rate setting pursued by 15 EU countries before and after the launch of the EMU. We employ econometric estimation of the augmented Taylor rule (TR) for individual 15 EU countries and the Euro area. Although a vast empirical evidence is available for the major economies like the US, the UK or Germany, there is an important gap in our understanding of the factors behind the short-term interest rate dynamics in smaller economies. We find that in the period preceding the euro adoption, the TR is a poor representation of monetary policy setting in most EU countries and that many central banks considered decisions made by dominant economies rather than their domestic macroeconomic developments. The analysis of monetary policy rule of the ECB features additional problems related to the heterogeneity of the EMU. We argue that results based on Euro-area aggregated series, commonly presented in empirical studies, are subject to diverse econometric problems. We provide some evidence that the ECB is concerned also with national information and propose quasi-panel analysis as a viable framework. Essay III explores the relation between the existing monetary policy and domestic price stability in small open emerging economies, in particular the 12 EU new member states. This work has three principal objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authority of each country. The linear specification of the Taylor rule, applied already in the Essay II, is accompanied by an extensive analysis of nonlinearities in monetary policy rules and the inference on their possible sources. We find that the official monetary policy is sometimes inconsistent with the empirical evidence on the short term interest rate setting. The second objective consists in revealing the determinants of the inflation process. We have found that inflation rates are driven not only by backward persistency but also by the forward-looking component. Third, we employ analysis of the conditional inflation variance so as to give account on the viability of the existing monetary policy setting for price stability. We conclude that the policy of inflation targeting seems to be preferable to exchange rate peg because it allows decreasing not only inflation rate but also its conditional variance. Essay IV seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four CEEC (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and test when the predominant model of inflation, the New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC), is consistent with the data of these countries. According to the microfounded NKPC, the current inflation is related to inflation expectations and the real marginal cost. The empirical validity of this model has recently become a subject of major controversy in the monetary economics. Although we find some favorable evidence for the NKPC, it seems to be too restrictive model for small open economies. In particular, the failure of the NKPC to explain the inflation dynamics of these countries may be related to the assumption that inflation is related to forward-looking price setting of domestic monopolist firms while our evidence suggests that prices in CEEC have an important backward-looking component and the inflation is significantly driven by external factors like the exchange rate and the foreign inflation rate.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:47:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PlacidoASN_TESE.pdf: 5575988 bytes, checksum: b29fc882ea45700b3c27d134527a79ed (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-11 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / This thesis presents ⇡SOD-M (Policy-based Service Oriented Development Methodology), a methodology for modeling reliable service-based applications using policies. It proposes a model driven method with: (i) a set of meta-models for representing non-functional constraints associated to service-based applications, starting from an use case model until a service composition model; (ii) a platform providing guidelines for expressing the composition and the policies; (iii) model-to-model and model-to-text transformation rules for semi-automatizing the implementation of reliable service-based applications; and (iv) an environment that implements these meta-models and rules, and enables the application of ⇡SOD-M. This thesis also presents a classification and nomenclature for non-functional requirements for developing service-oriented applications. Our approach is intended to add value to the development of service-oriented applications that have quality requirements needs. This work uses concepts from the service-oriented development, non-functional requirements design and model-driven delevopment areas to propose a solution that minimizes the problem of reliable service modeling. Some examples are developed as proof of concepts / Esta tese apresenta ⇡SOD-M (Policy-based Service Oriented Development Methodology), uma metodologia para a modelagem de aplica??es orientadas a servi?os a qual usa Pol?ticas de qualidade. O trabalho prop?e um m?todo orientado a modelos para desenvolvimento de aplica??es confi?veis. ⇡SOD-M consiste de: (i) um conjunto de meta-modelos para representa??o de requisitos n?o-funcionais associados a servi?os nos diferentes n?veis de modelagem, a partir de um modelo de caso de uso at? um modelo de composi??o de servi?o, (ii) um meta-modelo de plataforma espec?fica que representa a especifica??o das composi?oes e as pol?ticas, (iii) regras de transforma??o model-to-model e model-to-text para semi-automatizar a implementa??o de composi?oes de servi?os confi?veis, e (iv) um ambiente que implementa estes meta-modelos e regras, representando assim aspectos transversais e limita??es associadas a servi?os, que devem ser respeitados. Esta tese tamb?m apresenta uma classifica??o e nomenclatura de requisitos n?o-funcionais para o desenvolvimento de aplica??es orientadas a servi?os. Nossa abordagem visa agregar valor ao desenvolvimento de aplica??es orientadas a servi?os que t?m necessidades de garantias de requisitos de qualidade. Este trabalho utiliza conceitos das ?reas de desenvolvimento orientado a servi?os, design de requisitos n?o-funcionais e desenvolvimento dirigido a modelos para propor uma solu??o que minimiza o problema de modelagem de servi?os web confi?veis

India's electricity system is faced with the challenges of meeting the growing demand for electricity, managing recurring shortages in supply and addressing concerns of global warming. India is adopting a two-pronged approach to address these challenges – (i) making huge investments in new technologies, and (ii) enacting new policies to promote low carbon initiatives. Together, they are believed to help in achieving energy security as well as mitigation of global warming. Such low carbon initiatives can alter the traditional electricity planning and provide with a wide set of supply options to achieve a transition in to a low carbon electricity planning (LCEP). At the outset, one has to explore the supply options for an optimal supply-demand matching of electricity. While finding out various alternatives to meet the demand on a continuous basis using existing supply, non-supply and future supply options, the technology challenges of low carbon options, renewable energy policies and emissions policies need to be studied in detail from the perspective of a developing country keeping India as a focus. The effectiveness of renewable energy and emissions policy interventions such as Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO), Renewable Energy Certificate (REC), Renewable Energy Certificate Excess (RECX), Emission Tax and Emission Cap-and-Trade and emission policies need to be assessed. Based on the analysis of the literature review, it appears that there is no mathematical model for optimally matching the supply with electricity demand simultaneously considering all the complexities for LCEP discussed in this study. The overall objective of the research is to develop, validate and apply a set of mathematical models to address a complex research problem of "LCEP of existing supply, non-supply and future supply options in the presence of technology and policy interventions to achieve a least-cost, low carbon and sustainable electricity system". This complex research problem is decomposed into five independent LCEP problems based on real-life situations. For each of these five LCEP problems, a mathematical model is proposed. For generating the five proposed mathematical models for any given data, LINGO Set Codes have been developed. In order to validate the proposed mathematical models, data was collected from the Karnataka state electricity system. For the collected data, the proposed mathematical models are generated using the LINGO Set Codes and solved using LINGO. From the optimal solutions, insights are drawn on the impact and effectiveness of low carbon interventions on the present electricity system which is in a transition towards a low carbon electricity system. It is our belief that the proposed mathematical models can act as a basis for introducing any new low carbon interventions such as energy efficiency certificates, auction based tariff mechanisms for renewable energy pricing, and other new REC interventions in the future scope.

Text in Afrikaans / Die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur word onder toenemende druk geplaas om meer en beter dienste, wat onder andere sport- en rekreasiedienste behels, aan die gemeenskap te voorsien. Dit kan daaraan toegeskryf word dat veranderinge in die omgewing plaasvind wat vereis dat die Substruktuur in die gees van die heropbou en ontwikkeling van die gemeenskap, daarby moet aanpas. Een manier om die druk op die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur te verlig is om sport- en rekreasiedienste aan die hand van eenvormige beleid te organiseer. Hieruit spruit 'n doelwit voort, te wete om beleid vir die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste van die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur te ondersoek. Die ondersoek omsluit die milieu waarbinne beleid ontwikkel het, byvoorbeeld die eksterne omgewing en die bestaande organisatoriese reelings wat vir sport- en rekreasiedienste in die Substruktuur geld. In die studie is bevind dat beleid vir die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste van die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur gebrekkig en gefragmenteerd is. Daar is ook bevind dat die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste, weens 'n gebrek aan beleid, tot organisatoriese leemtes, soos die duplisering van dienste en gebrekkige kommunikasie, aanleiding gee. 'n Verdere doelwit met die studie is om 'n universele beleidsmodel vir die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur saam te stel waardeur leemtes in die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste uitgeskakel kan word en eenvormige beleidsreelings getref kan word. Daar is bevind dat die universele beleidsmodel wetenskaplik gefundeerde riglyne vir die daarstelling van beleid bied. Sodanige bevinding het tot die gevolgtrekking gelei dat die beleidsmodel 'n ideale raamwerk skep waarvolgens plaaslike owerhede, soos die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur, probleme kan identifiseer, doelwitte kan stel, organisatoriese reelings kan tref en beleid kan formuleer, implementeer en evalueer. Dit skep in der waarheid 'n raamwerk waarvolgens beleidbepalers te werk kan gaan om beleid te bepaal. Die beleidsmodel het 'n universele toepassingswaarde omdat dit riglyne bevat wat deur enige ander plaaslike owerheid in die proses van beleidbepaling aangewend kan word. / Increased pressure is placed on the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure to provide more and improved services, such as sport and recreation services, to the community. This can be ascribed to changes taking place within the external environment and which, in the spirit of reconstruction and development, requires the Substructure to adapt to such changes. One way to relieve the pressure on the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure is to organize sport and recreation services according to a uniform policy. This resulted in an objective, namely to investigate policy for the organization of sport and recreation services of the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure. The investigation entails the environment within which policy develops, for example the external environment and the present organizational arrangements applicable to sport and recreation services in the Substructure. During the study it was determined that policy for the organization of sport and recreation services of the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure was limited and fragmented. It was also determined that, due to the lack of policy, the organization of sport and recreation services resulted in organizational shortcomings such as the duplication of services and insufficient communication. A further objective with the study is to construct a universal policy-model for the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure through which shortcomings in the organization of sport and recreation services can be limited and uniform policy arrangements can be determined. It was determined that the universal policymodel offered scientifically based guidelines for the determination of policy. The aforementioned determination lead to the conclusion that the policy-model created an ideal framework within which local governments, such as the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure, could identify problems, determine objectives and organizational arrangements, formulate, implement and evaluate policy. In fact it creates a framework within which policymakers can work to determine policy. The policy-model is of universal value because it offers guidelines which can be applied by any other local authority during the policy-making process. / Public Administration and Management / D. Admin. (Publieke Administrasie)

Text in Afrikaans / Die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur word onder toenemende druk geplaas om meer en beter dienste, wat onder andere sport- en rekreasiedienste behels, aan die gemeenskap te voorsien. Dit kan daaraan toegeskryf word dat veranderinge in die omgewing plaasvind wat vereis dat die Substruktuur in die gees van die heropbou en ontwikkeling van die gemeenskap, daarby moet aanpas. Een manier om die druk op die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur te verlig is om sport- en rekreasiedienste aan die hand van eenvormige beleid te organiseer. Hieruit spruit 'n doelwit voort, te wete om beleid vir die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste van die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur te ondersoek. Die ondersoek omsluit die milieu waarbinne beleid ontwikkel het, byvoorbeeld die eksterne omgewing en die bestaande organisatoriese reelings wat vir sport- en rekreasiedienste in die Substruktuur geld. In die studie is bevind dat beleid vir die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste van die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur gebrekkig en gefragmenteerd is. Daar is ook bevind dat die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste, weens 'n gebrek aan beleid, tot organisatoriese leemtes, soos die duplisering van dienste en gebrekkige kommunikasie, aanleiding gee. 'n Verdere doelwit met die studie is om 'n universele beleidsmodel vir die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur saam te stel waardeur leemtes in die organisering van sport- en rekreasiedienste uitgeskakel kan word en eenvormige beleidsreelings getref kan word. Daar is bevind dat die universele beleidsmodel wetenskaplik gefundeerde riglyne vir die daarstelling van beleid bied. Sodanige bevinding het tot die gevolgtrekking gelei dat die beleidsmodel 'n ideale raamwerk skep waarvolgens plaaslike owerhede, soos die Suidelike Pretoria Metropolitaanse Substruktuur, probleme kan identifiseer, doelwitte kan stel, organisatoriese reelings kan tref en beleid kan formuleer, implementeer en evalueer. Dit skep in der waarheid 'n raamwerk waarvolgens beleidbepalers te werk kan gaan om beleid te bepaal. Die beleidsmodel het 'n universele toepassingswaarde omdat dit riglyne bevat wat deur enige ander plaaslike owerheid in die proses van beleidbepaling aangewend kan word. / Increased pressure is placed on the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure to provide more and improved services, such as sport and recreation services, to the community. This can be ascribed to changes taking place within the external environment and which, in the spirit of reconstruction and development, requires the Substructure to adapt to such changes. One way to relieve the pressure on the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure is to organize sport and recreation services according to a uniform policy. This resulted in an objective, namely to investigate policy for the organization of sport and recreation services of the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure. The investigation entails the environment within which policy develops, for example the external environment and the present organizational arrangements applicable to sport and recreation services in the Substructure. During the study it was determined that policy for the organization of sport and recreation services of the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure was limited and fragmented. It was also determined that, due to the lack of policy, the organization of sport and recreation services resulted in organizational shortcomings such as the duplication of services and insufficient communication. A further objective with the study is to construct a universal policy-model for the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure through which shortcomings in the organization of sport and recreation services can be limited and uniform policy arrangements can be determined. It was determined that the universal policymodel offered scientifically based guidelines for the determination of policy. The aforementioned determination lead to the conclusion that the policy-model created an ideal framework within which local governments, such as the Southern Pretoria Metropolitan Substructure, could identify problems, determine objectives and organizational arrangements, formulate, implement and evaluate policy. In fact it creates a framework within which policymakers can work to determine policy. The policy-model is of universal value because it offers guidelines which can be applied by any other local authority during the policy-making process. / Public Administration and Management / D. Admin. (Publieke Administrasie)