<p>Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.</p>

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

The literature on escalation situations and audience costs suggests that democratic executives tend to increase commitment to a foreign policy in response to negative feedback. However, real-world cases from international politics suggest otherwise. Specifically, executives do not appear to respond uniformly to failing situations. While scholars have begun to unravel the audience cost mechanism, up until know, we know little about reasons for the variation in how executives use policy feedback to update commitment to a foreign policy. In this dissertation, I adopt an integrative approach and present a model of sequential decision-making that explains the conditions under which leaders escalate and de-escalate commitment in response to feedback. I attempt to break down the audience cost mechanism to explain why democratic executives do not respond uniformly to negative feedback. While the literature on the escalation of commitment suggests decision-makers tend to increase investment in the face of negative feedback, my theory suggests that under certain conditions, executives may find it politically advantageous to back down from a failing policy. My theory emphasizes the relationship between citizens, executives, and foreign policy effectiveness. Next, I suggest that the foreign policy tool of military intervention provides a suitable test case for a theory of sequential decision-making. I first test hypotheses derived from the theory regarding the preference formation process of democratic citizens during the course of such an episode. Understanding the response of citizens to feedback is an important first step to understanding the updating decisions of democratic executives. While previous work has relied on aggregate survey data, experimentation provides me with the ability to analyze how an individual citizen?s preference over commitment is impacted by policy feedback. The results of the experimental analyses suggest that citizens act as investors: they favor increasing commitment to military interventions when viewing negative feedback, up to a point. I then test the main hypotheses derived from the theory regarding executive decision-making on a dataset of major power military interventions from 1960-2000. Overall, the results support the hypotheses: public approval conditions the manner in which executives use feedback to update intervention commitments. In the conclusion, I summarize the study by highlighting key results, present the broad implications for the study of democratic foreign policy making, and discuss avenues for future research.

Taiwan¡¦s monopoly system, originating from the Military Governor Ming-chuan Liu of Qing Dynasty and applied by the Japanese, was a major financial source in Japan-colonized Taiwan. Chen Yi, the first ROC Chief Executive and Garrison Commander of Taiwan, renamed the Monopoly Bureau of Government-General as the Monopoly Bureau of Taiwan and then continued its monopolistic business. He stipulated five items -- tobacco, alcohol, camphor, matches, and measurement gadgets-- be monopolized by government whereas private manufacturing and sales be barred under the supervision of the Monopoly Bureau. Also banned from private transactions are certain necessities, such as salt, lime, cane sugar, gasoline, and electricity, which were distributed by some authorities other than the Monopoly Bureau. It was thought that such measures could restrict individual capital, and reinforce national capital in the hopes of realizing the idea of the nation founding, based on the doctrines of the Three People¡¦s Principles. Dr. Sun Yat-sen, though asserting capital restrictions in some degree, was not opposed to private capital, but, rather, was keen to encourage private enterprises. He had the national industries developed by a dual action via both private enterprises and national organizations. His philosophy argued that those productions not so proper to be commissioned to a state-run organization as to a private one should, along with incentives from the state and protection by the law, be rendered to the latter for operations. Based on this, it appeared obvious that people¡¦s livelihood didn¡¦t connote nationalization. And by no means did livelihood denote that the government could confiscate the industries already operated by civilians. After a further study, a distinction could be found in the argument between the economic centralization implemented by the authorities of Taiwan¡¦s administrative officers and the capital restriction elaborated in the Principles of People¡¦s Livelihood. The colossal assets taken over from Japanese-owned industries didn¡¦t mean any opportunities to reinforce national capital. Instead, monopolistic business was designed to operate by the government and afterwards turned up being outstanding samples of state-owned businesses among the industries in post-war Taiwan. The key factor consisted in the fact that state-owned industries were run under the supervision of the Taiwan Provincial Assembly, which boosted the managerial performance. The revenues from monopolistic sales of tobacco and spirits were crucial to the finances of our country and were helpful to the development of its economic constructions. The monopoly featured two functions. One function was to revive the production of the state-owned industries, which laid a foundation to carry out a six-term Four-year Economic Program, beginning in 1953; to make a substitute for imports; to spur export expansion; and to help kick-start our country¡¦s economic boom. The other function was to improve village constructions with land reforms of Three-seven-five Rent Deduction (a program limiting the rent of a land to a maximum of 37.5 percent of its total product), Release of State Lands, and Land-to-the-tillers Movements. The monopoly system was an indispensable support of finances, and it also ensured that the capital from the agricultural sector could be transferred to the industrial sector, which proved that provincial constructions were closely related to national economic development.

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The mobile data market in South Africa is predicted to be a significant revenue contributor for mobile telecommunication operators, such as MTN, over the next five years. In light of the declining revenue from the traditional voice services, most operators worldwide are turning to mobile data as the solution to this problem. However, there is widespread confusion on which is the correct business model to implement in order to maximise the gains from this new market. To add to the complexity, there is also no clear cut technology upgrade path. While it is well understood that the main driver for the mobile data market will be high data throughputs, the industry is still unsure on which is the best route for an operator to follow as it moves from a second generation (2G)to a third generation (3G) network. This dissertation discusses the business model that MTN should implement in order to become the market leader for mobile data in South Africa. A literature survey on the latest market characteristics and forecast for the mobile data industry is presented. The recent developments on mobile data business models is also discussed. The technology upgrades, i.e. GPRS, EDGE and UMTS, available to a mobile telecommunication operator is described in detail. GPRS is the first stage in the evolution from a 2G to a 3G network and offers data rates of 40 Kb/s. EDGE improves on the GPRS technology with data speeds of 59.2 Kb/s per timeslot and utilise the same frequency, radio and switching equipment. UMTS is the final stage and is capable of delivering 2 Mb/s data rates. It operates on a different frequency spectrum, thus, requiring a new licence from the telecommunications regulator. In order to develop a new business model, MTN's current GPRS model is analysed. The poor success rate of this model can be attributed to the high prices being charged for the services and the lack of any "killer applications" to entice the users. The business model focuses on the customer value of service, organisational, technical and pricing models. For the customer value of service, it is shown that MTN must offer cheaper prices for the services, higher data rates and more exciting applications. The pre-paid subscribers should also be allowed access to the mobile data network. The main changes to the organisational arrangement in MTN includes creating sub-departments in marketing, sales and network group to focus solely on mobile data. MTN must develop an integrated services approach and this can only be achieved by developing partnerships with all key players in the mobile data industry, such as content providers and application developers. Due to the high costs, the technology arrangement section proposes that MTN first upgrade the network to be EDGE capable and later implement a UMTS network. The financial arrangement discusses the revenue, pricing and cost model. The revenue model proposes the development of an exciting and attractive mobile portal. New services and applications such as mobile gaming and gambling must be created for the personal consumers. For the corporate consumers, applications and services must be developed for customer relation management, supply chain management and workforce application. A hybrid pricing model must be adopted. A fixed, metered and value based pricing structure should be implemented to make the services more affordable and to gain the maximum revenues. Finally, the various elements that constitute the cost model is examined. The major contributing costs for the operator will be the network upgrade and subscriber acquisition. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2004.

This study on IT strategy was conducted at the National Ports Authority of South Africa. Firstly literature review was undertaken in the field of Business Strategy and to a larger extent on IT strategy. This culminated in a model that could be used to benchmark against the IT strategy being used at the National Ports Authority of South Africa. Due consideration was also given to the implementation of strategy in the literature review which could be compared with the implementation of strategy at the National Ports Authority of South Africa. The company situation was thereafter presented and discussed in context with what was covered in the literature review. An impact study of the IT strategy on the business processes at the National Ports Authority was also conducted. Interviews were conducted to determine what was working well and also what was not working well at the National Ports Authority of South Africa. Finally recommendations were provided to the National Ports Authority of South Africa on how to improve the business processes and the strategy formulation process. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.

Moreland Developments (Pty) Limited is KwaZulu-Natal's leading land developer, consistently delivering on its vision of providing sustainable, quality developments across the spectrum of its operating portfolios. However, the changing external environment has recently presented new challenges to the company, raising the question of the appropriateness of the differentiated focus land-only development strategy. The assessment of whether Moreland's business strategy addresses the environments in which it operates is based on a theoretical model. An assessment of the internal operations of Moreland together with an examination of the external environment in which the company competes has uncovered a misalignment between these environments and the strategic direction pursued. The model is used to provide a more appropriate response to the management dilemma of eroding profit margins brought on by, in the main, an increase in infrastructure costs. The outcome of testing strategic options against current internal and external conditions has presented a compelling argument for the shifting of the strategic thrust of Moreland: from pursuing a focused land-only development strategy to one of concentric diversification. By Moreland extending its operations to related businesses and downstream activities, the company is better positioned to extract a greater return where value-added is greatest. Since Moreland does not possess all the core competences and resources in order to undertake the value-added downstream activities, partnering such an initiative with a company that does have such resources will bridge the gap between pure land-only development and property development. The net effect of the concentric diversification strategy will be to spread the risk that Moreland is exposed to and to generate returns that are commensurate with the level of value-added activities. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, 2003.

Ever since the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, the quest for 'sustainability' has gained increased prominence on the business landscape. The King Report on Corporate Governance has further heightened awareness of social and environmental considerations which had previously been overlooked, thus broadening the business agenda beyond meeting the needs of owners and shareholders. Within the South African context, transformation imperatives have placed additional obligations on our businesses, requiring a change in corporate attitudes and business practices. Thus, in today's business climate, where companies compete globally for customers as well as talent, where reputation is as important as financial outcome, and where social and environmental risks have become key business dynamics, companies are increasingly being called to account, by a broader range of stakeholders, across a far wider spectrum of activities and operations. The dissertation reflects on the complexity of developing an inclusive and participatory approach to understanding the dimensions of sustainability and developing a sustainable development agenda for IlIovo Sugar Sezela business. The study presents an opportunity to apply systems thinking to consider the various perspectives and worldviews of the participating stakeholders, and to promote democratic decision-making in formulating possibilities. In this regard, it is imperative that the inquiry involves the use of methodologies appropriate to the structure and nature of the organisation, and that the outcome of the inquiry involves a 'product' that is owned by the organisation. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

<p><font size="3"> <p>The development of the Internet and other information and communication technologies (ICT) in recent decades represents a material foundation for a networked society and the emergence of new economies (Knowledge Society) and is now directly affecting individuals and whole societies. ICT is now an indisputable component of addressing the major issues of equity, sustainability and global competitiveness. Being still in its early developmental phase in many developing countries (such as South Africa), Knowledge Society requires profoundly new ways of thinking, working and living, which includes building of new capacities for the entire nation. These capacities are inter alia inevitably associated with the use of ICT and are often referred to as e-skills. These skills broadly described as the ability to develop and use ICT to adequately participate in an environment increasingly dominated by access to electronically enabled information and a well-developed ability to synthesise this into effective and relevant knowledge.&nbsp / <font size="3">In order to address a considerable deficiency in e-skills (estimated shortage of 70000 e-skilled people), the South African government through the Department of Communication has established the e-Skills Institute (e-SI) with the mandate to concentrate on the development of adequate skills to allow its citizens to improve their capacities to use all forms of ICT at work, in their education, in their personal lives and in their governance. In this regard, the e-SI is also responsible for creating appropriate policies which should be linked to other relevant national (e.g. Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF), 2009 &ndash / 2014) and international (e.g. UN Millennium Development Goals - MDGs) developmental strategies. However, while participating in the development of the current national e-skills policy (the National e-Skills Plan of Action &ndash / NeSPA</font><font size="1">1</font><font size="3">), the author realised that there were not readily available guidelines or frameworks that could advise policy development in this area. It seems that much space in the policy development is left to the policy-makers own values, experience, expertise, judgement, the influence of lobbyists and pressure groups, pragmatism, or based on the resources available, than on evidence. Thus, this study set the following objectives:</font><font size="3"> <p> To understand the theoretical and contextual background of policy-making / </p> <p> <p> To explore existing policy-making frameworks that might be relevant to e-skills policy-making / </p> <p> To identify and classify e-skills related elements obtained from pertinent literature / </p> <p> To verify these policy-making elements by interviewing experienced policy-makers in the fields of ICT and e-skills / </p> <p> To suggest a framework for e-skills policy-making in the South African developmental context / and</p> <p> To explain the use of the elements within the proposed e-skills policy-making framework.</p> </p> <p>These objectives were achieved by reviewing the pertinent literature, which led to the construction of the conceptual model for e-skills policy-making in South Africa. This model consists of eight elements: (i) Context-related awareness, (ii) Collaborative e-skills ecology, (iii) Excellence education for all, (iv) Futures of ICT capabilities and knowledge infrastructure, (v) Research and development, (vi) Cost and affordability, (vii) E-inclusion and (viii) Monitoring and evaluation. This model was subsequently empirically tested using the Interpretive hermeneutic research approach by interviewing a number of policy-makers in the fields of e-skills or broader field of ICT policy-making. The empirical findings confirmed validity of the above e-skills policy-making elements but also elicited two new elements: (ix) Integration and systemic approach and (x) Aggregation. Consequently, these elements were assembled together into a framework for e-skills policy-making in South Africa. In order to make the proposed e-skills policy-making framework operational, the next step of this study was to relate this framework to the policy-making processes. This was done by positioning elements of e-skills policy-making framework within the EU &quot / Policy making 3.0&quot / process model. The main contribution of this study is seen in the fact that it brings a novel e-skills policy-making framework particularly design for the South African context but keeping in mind that it can possibly be used in other similar developing countries. Theoretically, this study has added to the academic understanding of significance of certain concepts for e-skills policy-making derived from the pertinent literature but&nbsp / also those identified empirically by this research. Now this study can be used for a practical implementation and also as a base for further academic research. This study also has some limitations mainly seen through a fairly small research sample caused by absence or unavailability of experienced policy-makers. However, it is believed that this limitation did not limit validity of results and the practical and academic contribution of this study.</p> </font></p> </font></p>