acase@tulane.edu

acase@tulane.edu

This dissertation presents a study of the nature of the formation of expectations for, and empirical patterns of, the Deutsche Mark/dollar and Yen/dollar exchange rates for the time period of July 1976 to June 1986. A discussion of the interdependent characteristics of monetary policy formation and institutional aspects of the central banks of the United States, West Germany, and Japan follows, with the purpose of characterizing policy interaction effects on formation of expectations in the 1976-1980 and 1980-85 subperiods--prior to, and after, the inception of significant changes in monetary policies in each of the three countries. / The statistical studies produce conflicting results, but the strongest indication is for behavior of exchange rate levels consistent with rational expectation theories of market efficiency for each of the two subperiods, but not for the full period. In particular, there is indication of serial correlation in the residuals for the full period tests. Variance ratio tests for trend reversion suggest persistence of returns which increase by a degree less than proportional to the increase in length of lag period, suggesting reversion to a central value. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 52-05, Section: A, page: 1836. / Major Professor: George Macesich. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1991.

Many of the relatively large number of transitions to more democratic political systems in Third World countries during the 1980s were anomalies for important theories of regime transition, because they occurred during times of economic difficulties and increased dependence by poor countries on richer, industrialized states. Modernization theory, for example, would lead us to expect that economic growth is necessary for the emergence of democracy, while dependency theory stipulates that increased reliance by poor countries on investment from multinational corporations fosters dictatorial regimes that create economic environments attractive to those corporations. At least some of the anomalies might be accounted for by a model that emphasizes the liberalizing impact of economic restructuring programs instituted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, especially in those countries with debt-servicing difficulties that made them more vulnerable to that impact. Analyses of data on regime transitions in the 1980s indicate that highly indebted countries committed to economic stabilization under agreements signed with either official multilateral agencies or commercial banks were more likely to democratize in the 1980s. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 52-05, Section: A, page: 1883. / Major Professor: James Lee Ray. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1991.

By any standards, the evolution of the European Union has been dramatic. Born in the devastation of the immediate post-war years, it brought together countries which had faced each other in conflict only a few years earlier. Predictably, the political rationale for its establishment in 1958 was peace, but the key to achieving this goal was to be economic growth. Economic growth was expected to increase the absolute wealth of member states, as well as improve the relative economic performance of poorer regions. / This latter view is consistent with neoclassical economic theories of regional integration which predict a convergence of wealth levels as integration proceeds. Issues of convergence and divergence are particularly significant for economic communities, as it has been demonstrated that such organizations are especially vulnerable to political tensions which result from uneven distributions of wealth. / Given the importance of wealth disparities for the integration process, this study traces their development over a thirty year period. It also assesses whether such economic trends have influenced public support for the European Union. / The results of the analysis indicate that economic convergence has occurred within the European Union since its inception. The original members became more alike economically, and three of the EU's four poorest members moved closer to this core group. It was also discovered that public evaluations of the EU are shaped by economic conditions. However, the most significant indicator of public support for the European Union was found to be the length of a country's membership in that organization. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-08, Section: A, page: 3289. / Major Professor: Dale L. Smith. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1995.

This research analyzes the relationship between the domestic political attributes of states and crisis decision making. Hypotheses on crisis escalation are derived from a game-theoretic model and subjected to empirical tests. I assess the impacts of international and domestic factors on uses of force by targets in a set of international crises drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Project, 1929-1979. I find that targets are more likely to use force in crises when their expected value for war is high, their expected costs of war are low and when the initiator of the crisis has already used force. Targets are also more likely to use force when faced with increasing levels of governmental instability, but only when the initiator has not already used force. When the initiator has already used force, governmental instability reduces the likelihood that the target will use force. / While indicators of the target's domestic political costs for using force have a negative impact on the use of force, I find that similar indicators of the initiator's regime type, also affect target decisions to use force. In crises where the initiator has already used force, target states are less likely to respond with force when the initiator faces high domestic costs for using force. For targets in crises where the initiator has not already used force, the opposite effect holds; targets are more likely to use force when confronted with initiators that face high domestic political costs for using force. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-08, Section: A, page: 3301. / Major Professor: James Lee Ray. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1995.

No description available.

Over the last 20 years, there has been an eruption of transnational anticorruption efforts, including treaties, systems of implementation review, advocacy campaigns, donor projects, and conditionalities. This study argues that absent these initiatives, resources that have been instrumental in shaping domestic decision-making processes would not have been mobilized. More active accountability constituencies and outcomes would not have ensued. / However, not all transnational efforts have been equally productive in sustaining anticorruption reforms. I identify two types of strategies and argue that international legalization is more likely to pay off than efforts to shock and replace domestic accountability mechanisms from outside. When the process of making and maintaining international legalized standards becomes a part of anticorruption policy making, it gradually becomes harder for those who oppose reform to sustain inoperative accountability mechanisms. It is also harder to discretionally manipulate reforms. In the short run, it is possible to use transnational resources to bypass obstacles to reform created by the democratic process. However, over time actors who oppose change are likely to be willing and able to undo those exogenously imposed outcomes. Transnational displacement is more likely than legalization to backfire on anticorruption constituencies. / The usefulness of transnational strategies is likely to vary within countries. International legalization is more likely to be effective in executive branches than in legislatures because the latter's setup creates more substantial barriers to innovation, such as collective action requirements and narrow spaces for reinterpretation. Consequently, the pathway to accountability is generally proactive in the executive branches but reactive in legislatures. / This study presents a theory of the politics of anticorruption reform. I explain why building accountability is as much about the transnational pathways that accountability constituencies pursue as it is about the objective, looking at the activation of conflicts of interests control systems in Argentinean and Czech branches of government. These cases provide insights about what transnational anticorruption efforts have been relatively effective in the Americas and Europe. I specify the mechanisms by which transnational resources produce useful results rather than shams. In so doing, I contribute to the broader literatures on transnational politics, democratization, and institutional innovation.

As the ten-year anniversary of 9/11 approaches, the United States government remains undecided as to how it should proceed against those individuals believed to be responsible for the terrorist attacks. Both the Bush and Obama administrations, as well as Congress, have made policy announcements, promulgated Executive Orders and passed legislation that would allow for the prosecution of these individuals in either an Article III court (a criminal trial in federal district court) or before a military commission, or determine whether they should remain in military detention without trial for the duration of hostilities against al Qaeda and those entities responsible for 9/11. To this day, however, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 plot, remains in U.S. military custody, the future of legal proceedings against him no more certain than they were in 2003, the year he was first detained by U.S. forces. Similarly, should Osama bin Laden or another high level al Qaeda leader be captured in the near future, no policy currently exists that would definitively determine which, if any, judicial forum is most appropriate for the disposition of their case. The lack of a coherent analytical framework that allows for consistent forum determinations when assessing the merits of a case against an overseas terrorist suspect has led to inconsistent decision-making and has fostered a growing credibility gap in U.S. counterterrorism policy. By applying a set of proposed criteria to individual cases, it is possible for policymakers to assess whether an Article III prosecution should be pursued in a given case or whether application of the criteria mitigates toward an alternative disposition, such as military commission or preventive detention.

The phenomenon of third party intervention in domestic political disputes has posed a significant dilemma for international relations scholars and practitioners for several decades. Specifically, why do third parties decide to intervene in some intrastate disputes, but decide not to intervene in other intrastate disputes? The question of why potential third parties choose to intervene in some cases but not in other cases has been widely discussed among international relations scholars and practitioners for several decades, but very few systematic analyses of the question have been conducted by international relations scholars. In this study, I intend to deal with some of the deficiencies in the international relations literature on third party interventions in intrastate disputes. After describing the phenomenon of third party interventions in intrastate disputes in the 20th century, I develop hypotheses regarding the occurrence of state interventions and intergovernmental organization (IGO) interventions in domestic political disputes. Hypotheses are tested using originally-collected data on some 3,102 cases of third party interventions (including 1,669 state/coalition of states interventions, 573 United Nations interventions, and 860 regional IGO interventions) in some 400 intrastate disputes during the 20th century. Using Logit regression analysis, I find that a combination of strategic (international) linkages and nonstrategic (transnational) linkages had significant effects on the occurrence of state interventions during the 20th century. I also find that a combination of security, political, humanitarian, and normative considerations had significant effects on the occurrence of UN and regional IGO interventions during the post-World War II period.