The aim of this study is to analyse political-security risk in Uganda. It emanates from the research question: Does Uganda pose a political-security risk to prospective foreign investment or involvement? The need to move beyond a political risk analysis without entering into a country risk analysis, poses the research problem to develop a political-security risk analysis framework and to apply it to Uganda. This problem generates three subsidiary questions: How appropriate (or inappropriate) are existing risk analysis frameworks? Do existing frameworks contain generic elements that can provide a basis for a synthesised framework? To what extent is a country specific framework applicable to other countries? Therefore, three sub-problems are addressed, namely to determine the appropriateness of selected frameworks; to identify generic elements to construct a synthesised framework; and to assess the applicability of this framework for the analysis of political-security risk in other African countries. Following a definition of the concepts risk, country risk, political risk and political-security risk (analysis), selected frameworks for risk analysis were analysed. The generic elements of these frameworks, namely The Economist (EIU), Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI), International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and Political Risk Services (PRS) frameworks, were reduced to three categories and synthesised into a single framework which was applied to Uganda. The categories of risk indicators pertained to security, political and socio-economic risks respectively. These indicators and the allocated risk scores were used to construct a political-security risk index in respect of which the summed scores provided an index figure of risk that was interpreted in accordance with an interpretation scale. In respect of Uganda, its more recent political history was described and the political, security and socio-economic circumstances prevailing in the country analysed. These conditions were assessed and measured against the indicated risk factors and according to the risk index. The summed political-security risk index score for Uganda was 55.5 out of a maximum of 100. In accordance with the interpretation scale, this constitutes an intermediate risk. Based on this Uganda is not, at present, the most suitable destination for foreign investment or involvement. This does not disallow investment or involvement but if indeed the case, it should be done with circumspection. The situation is volatile to the extent that it can rapidly change for the better or the worse, depending on trends concerning the risk categories, or more specifically a turn of events in respect of a particular key risk indicator. Since the synthesised risk analysis framework is able to accommodate key variables pertaining to politics and security in African states, and since it has provided an indication of risk in respect of Uganda, it is suggested for application to other African states. The need for modification, based on the particularities of other countries, is not excluded. It is also proposed that similar exercises be conducted at intervals of six months. This will indicate whether the variables used were, in fact, valid and reliable, and whether additional variables should be included. The repetition of the analysis also indicates risk trends and allows for the monitoring of risks, which will be conducive to risk management. / Dissertation (MSS (Political Sciences))--University of Pretoria, 2003. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

Bibliography / Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: International agencies are facing heightened levels of security risk in conflict zones. The nature of contemporary conflicts and the post-9/11 global political-security environment have contributed to a situation whereby the threat of attack as well as recurring criminal violence are a constant reality for their employees, hindering their work and obstructing their access to people in need. Moreover, the ability of international agencies to conduct strategic risk assessment has been called into question. The central research question of this study concerns whether an industry-specific political-security risk model can be applied successfully in order to assist international agencies with strategic political-security risk analysis in conflict zones. In order to develop a political-security risk model for international agencies a number of supplementary research questions are asked. The first of these is what limitations the security risk models currently used by international agencies exhibit. The second question asks what factors and indicators should be included in an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones. So as to test the applicability of the model developed in this research study, the last question asks what the level of risk is for international agencies operating in the conflict zone in eastern Chad. Using political risk theory, and drawing upon political risk models specific to the energy industry, this research study proposes an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones, in which the limitations of the current models used by international agencies to analyse security risks are overcome. The application of this model to eastern Chad returns an overall risk rating of extreme, which is the highest overall risk rating obtainable. By regularly utilising this model, international agencies are able to monitor the changing levels of security risk in a conflict zone and are therefore better placed to make informed strategic decisions when it comes to risk management and risk mitigation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internasionale agentskappe trotseer tans verhoogde vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in konfliksones. Die aard van hedendaagse konflikte en die post-9/11 globale politieke sekuriteitsomgewing het bygedra tot ’n situasie waar die bedreiging van aanvalle sowel as die herhalende aard van kriminele geweld vir hul werkers ’n voortdurende realiteit is. As gevolg hiervan word werkers verhinder om hul verpligtinge uit te voer en na mense in nood uit te reik. Boonop word internasionale agentskappe se vermoë om strategiese risiko-asessering uit te voer nou bevraagteken. Die hoofnavorsingsvraag van hierdie studie is: kan ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel suksesvol toegepas word om internasionale agentskappe by te staan met strategiese politieke sekuriteitsrisiko-analise in konfliksones, al dan nie. Ten einde ’n politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe te ontwikkel, word daar ook ’n aantal aanvullende navorsingsvrae gevra. Die eerste hiervan stel ondersoek in na die beperkings van die sekuriteitsrisikomodelle wat teenswoordig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word. Die tweede vraag vra watter faktore en indikators by ’n industriespesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones ingesluit behoort te word. Ten einde die toepaslikheid te toets van die model wat in hierdie studie ontwikkel is, stel die laaste vraag ondersoek in na die risikovlak vir internasionale agentskappe wat in die konfliksone van oostelike Tsjad werksaam is. Met behulp van politieke risikoteorie en met gebruik van politieke risikomodelle wat spesifiek betrekking het tot die energie-industrie, propageer hierdie navorsingstudie ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones wat die beperkings van die modelle wat huidig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word, sal oorwin. Hierdie model se toepassing op oostelike Tsjad toon in die geheel ’n risikowaarde van ekstreem, die hoogste algehele risikowaarde moontlik. Deur hierdie model gereeld te gebruik sal dit internasionale agentskappe in staat stel om die veranderende vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in ’n konfliksone te monitor; dus sal hulle meer ingeligte strategiese besluite kan neem wat betref risikobestuur en – verligting.