Este trabalho aplica a teoria moderna de portfólios para a definição da participação de cada fonte de geração de energia elétrica, em cada região brasileira, para que a demanda por eletricidade do país prevista pela Empresa de Pesquisa Energética para o ano de 2024 seja atendida. As composições das fontes foram analisadas sob a perspectiva dos custos envolvidos no processo de geração, transmissão e distribuição de energia elétrica, levando em consideração restrições operacionais como potencial de geração das fontes, limites de intercâmbio entre regiões e limites mínimo e máximo de geração de cada fonte em cada região. O risco em relação ao custo foi avaliado sob a ótica do desvio padrão e do conditional value at risk, e as diferenças entre essas duas medidas de risco, quando aplicadas para definição de matrizes energéticas, foram estudadas. Os modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados sob dois cenários diferentes, sendo um considerando condições normais para a quantidade de oferta de energia, e outro considerando um cenário de stress na oferta de energia da região sudeste/centro-oeste, deste modo a influência das restrições de transmissão na composição da matriz pôde ser avaliada. As soluções obtidas no modelo sob condições normais de oferta foram comparadas com a matriz projetada para o Brasil no Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2024. / This work applies modern portfolio theory for defining the participation of each electricity generation source, in each Brazilian region, in order to meet the electricity demand in the country for the year 2024, according to the Energy Research Company forecasting. The compositions of the sources were assessed under the perspective of the incurred costs during the processes of electricity energy generation, transmission and distribution. The risk associated to the costs were assessed under the light of the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk, and it was studied the differences between these two risk measures when they are applied for energy matrixes definition. The developed models were applied for two different scenarios, the first one considering normal conditions for the amount of electricity offer, and the second considering generation shortfall in the regions Southeast and Midwest, then the effect of transmission constraints was analyzed. The obtained solutions for the normal offer conditions were compared to the Brazilian energy mix projected by the Energy Research Company in the Energy Expansion Planning for 2024.

This thesis describes some of the practical issues faced by a portfolio manager in analyzing the risk associated with a portfolio of assets. The main tools used are the mean-variance optimization algorithm introduced by Markowitz and multi-factor models for risk decomposition. A sample portfolio designed to track the Russell 1000G stock index is constructed that minimizes tracking error while satisfying constraints on the exposure of the portfolio to particular factors (growth and market capitalization).

Este trabalho aplica a teoria moderna de portfólios para a definição da participação de cada fonte de geração de energia elétrica, em cada região brasileira, para que a demanda por eletricidade do país prevista pela Empresa de Pesquisa Energética para o ano de 2024 seja atendida. As composições das fontes foram analisadas sob a perspectiva dos custos envolvidos no processo de geração, transmissão e distribuição de energia elétrica, levando em consideração restrições operacionais como potencial de geração das fontes, limites de intercâmbio entre regiões e limites mínimo e máximo de geração de cada fonte em cada região. O risco em relação ao custo foi avaliado sob a ótica do desvio padrão e do conditional value at risk, e as diferenças entre essas duas medidas de risco, quando aplicadas para definição de matrizes energéticas, foram estudadas. Os modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados sob dois cenários diferentes, sendo um considerando condições normais para a quantidade de oferta de energia, e outro considerando um cenário de stress na oferta de energia da região sudeste/centro-oeste, deste modo a influência das restrições de transmissão na composição da matriz pôde ser avaliada. As soluções obtidas no modelo sob condições normais de oferta foram comparadas com a matriz projetada para o Brasil no Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2024. / This work applies modern portfolio theory for defining the participation of each electricity generation source, in each Brazilian region, in order to meet the electricity demand in the country for the year 2024, according to the Energy Research Company forecasting. The compositions of the sources were assessed under the perspective of the incurred costs during the processes of electricity energy generation, transmission and distribution. The risk associated to the costs were assessed under the light of the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk, and it was studied the differences between these two risk measures when they are applied for energy matrixes definition. The developed models were applied for two different scenarios, the first one considering normal conditions for the amount of electricity offer, and the second considering generation shortfall in the regions Southeast and Midwest, then the effect of transmission constraints was analyzed. The obtained solutions for the normal offer conditions were compared to the Brazilian energy mix projected by the Energy Research Company in the Energy Expansion Planning for 2024.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk-return efficiency of credit policies for managing portfolio credit risk of banking institutions. The focus of the empirical analysis is on the impact of risk pricing and problem loan restructuring on bank risk and returns using a simulation model that represents an operating environment of lenders servicing the Australian farm sector. Insurance theory principles and agency relationships between a borrower and a lender are integrated into the portfolio theory framework. The portfolio theory framework is then couched in terms of the capital budgeting approach to generate a portfolio return distribution function for a particular credit policy regime. Borrowers are segmented by region, industry, loan maturity and credit risk class. Each credit risk class defines risk constraints on which a stochastic simulation model may be developed for credit scoring an average borrower in a portfolio segment. The stochastic simulation method is then used to generate loan security returns for a particular credit policy regime through time with loan return outcomes weighted by the number of borrowers in a segment to give measures of portfolio performance. Stochastic dominance efficiency criteria are used to choose between distributions of NPV of bank returns measured for a number of credit policy alternatives. The findings suggest that banks servicing the Australian farm sector will earn more profit without additional portfolio risk if the maximum limit to which pricing accounts for default risk in loan reviews is positively linked to volatility of gross incomes of farm business borrowers. Importantly, credit-underwriting standards must also be formulated so as to procure farm business borrowers of above average productivity with loans that are fully secured using fixed assets. The results of simulations also suggest that restructuring loans in event of borrower default provide for large benefits compared to a �no restructuring� option.

<p>There is a big interest for alternative investment strategies than investing in traditional asset classes. Commodities are having a boom dynamic with increasing prices. This thesis is therefore based on applying Modern Portfolio Theory concept to this alternative asset class.</p><p>In this paper we manage to create optimal portfolios of commodities for investors with known and unknown risk preferences. When comparing expected returns to actual returns we found that for the investor with the known risk preference almost replicated the return of the markets. The other investor with unknown risk preference also profited but not as efficient as the market portfolio.</p>

There is a big interest for alternative investment strategies than investing in traditional asset classes. Commodities are having a boom dynamic with increasing prices. This thesis is therefore based on applying Modern Portfolio Theory concept to this alternative asset class. In this paper we manage to create optimal portfolios of commodities for investors with known and unknown risk preferences. When comparing expected returns to actual returns we found that for the investor with the known risk preference almost replicated the return of the markets. The other investor with unknown risk preference also profited but not as efficient as the market portfolio.

Abstract   Purpose The purpose of this thesis is; “To find out whether a strategy based on accumulated stock recommendations are able to outperform mutual funds and/or index funds with similar holdings over time”. Background During the past 30 years the interest for the financial market has been ever increasing. With the increased interest for the financial market, also an increased interest for the different investment alternatives have developed, thus also the amount of various financial products. Further there has been a discussion whether the different investment products actually add value to the investors. Method To be able to reach our purpose we have constructed a portfolio containing stocks based on recommendations. We have also come up with a method in order to decide the weights of the individual stocks in our portfolio. Further, we have used existing theories in order to estimate the return and the standard deviation. We have also benchmarked our portfolio against popular funds on the market. Conclusion We have seen that our portfolio during the six years running have performed better than the existing funds and also resulted in a lower standard deviation i.e. risk. Thus the results are applicable on our specific data, more research is needed in order to make any statements of statistical significance.

The UK has a commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. This will see the proportion of energy generated in the UK from renewable resources such as wind, solar, marine and bio-fuels is increasing and likely to dominate the future energy market over the next few decades. However, it is unclear what effect future physical climate changes could have on the long term average energy output characteristics of individual renewable energy technologies that may dominate the low carbon energy technologies. It is also unclear how these changes to individual technologies will affect a diverse portfolio of electricity generation technologies. This thesis explores the influence of climate change on renewable electricity generation portfolios and energy security in the UK, with the aim of determining if climate change will affect renewable energy resource in such a way that may leave future low carbon generation portfolios sub-optimal. The research allows long term renewable resource variability to be reflected within models of the costs and risks associated with different electricity generation technologies and using Mean Variance Portfolio Theory (MVPT), it explores the influence of climate change on renewable energy portfolios and energy security in the UK. The scope of this study has a considerable range spanning from renewable resources through to the sensitivity of an optimal portfolio mix of generation technologies to climate change. In brief, the objectives were as follows: Characterise the variability of renewable energy resources and electricity generation output from renewable technology in the UK, in particular solar PV, on and offshore wind, for future climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s. Characterise the variability of electricity generation costs and explore the effect of climate change scenarios on generation costs and risk by examining the cost-risk balance of current and potential future low carbon electricity generation technology portfolios. The outcome saw distinctive changes in solar, wind, wave and hydro resource. The changes were largely negative, except in the case of solar, which increased. Levelised costs decreased for solar PV but increased for the technologies with negative resource changes. Evident changes in optimal portfolio mixes were observed and explored.

Asymmetric dependence (AD) is defined as dependence that differs across opposing regions of the joint return distribution. Recent evidence of AD between equity returns suggests that dependence can be decomposed into a linear component, captured by the correlation matrix, and a higher order component. When these higher order terms are characterised by increased correlation in bear or bull markets, the effectiveness of diversification strategies is reduced. To the extent that an investor is unable to completely diversify these higher order terms of dependence, it follows that they should be reflected in asset prices and managed explicitly during the portfolio construction process. The aim of this thesis is to determine the extent of AD amongst asset returns, to investigate whether AD is priced and to develop a means of managing AD in the portfolio. I justify the existence of AD and the separation of AD from linear dependence via the bivariate Edgeworth expansion, finding that the joint return distribution may be described by an infinite number of higher order co-moments. Correlation (and hence β) describes one dimension of an infinite number of higher dimensions describing dependence. To determine the importance of AD in finance, I first develop measures that can detect AD independent of the level of linear dependence and idiosyncratic risk. These measures are used to determine the extent of AD amongst US stock returns and the market, to obtain an understanding of how AD changes through time and to re-examine the evidence of AD between equity portfolios. By measuring AD separate from linear dependence, I demonstrate several findings. First, I find evidence of non-stationary AD that can exists irrespective of the magnitude of linear dependence, measured by β. This time-varying AD consists of both significant upper tail dependence (UTD) and significant lower tail dependence (LTD), although LTD is found to occur more frequently than UTD, especially for small stocks and stocks displaying high idiosyncratic risk. Significant time-varying AD is also detected between domestic equity indices and international equity markets, implying that if a portfolio is weighted towards certain industries or countries, portfolio construction methods may need to be adjusted in order too meet risk and return targets, particularly if future AD cannot be adequately forecasted. Next, I investigate whether AD is priced in US equities using the Fama and MacBeth (1973) regression methodology in conjunction with my β invariant AD metrics. I find that AD is as important as linear dependence in explaining the variation in returns. In particular, a positive relationship between LTD and return is found. I document an AD risk premium of 2.7% pa, compared to a β risk premium of 6.18% pa. The AD risk premium increases to 6.9% pa for stocks with significant LTD. This result holds after controlling for size, book-to-market ratio, downside β and coskewness. I also find past AD is a significant variable in predicting the future returns of small firms, whilst neither AD nor linear dependence predict the future returns of large firms. I subsequently demonstrate a means of incorporating AD structures during the portfolio construction process using copula functions. I then investigate how asymmetric return dependencies affect the efficient frontier and subsequent portfolio performance under a dynamic rebalancing framework. By considering the problem of tactically allocating a small set of domestic equity indices, I demonstrate several findings. First, I show that a Mean-Variance efficient frontier differs from the efficient frontier constructed under AD. Constructing paper portfolios based upon these differences, I find that real economic value lies in correctly accounting for AD structures. The primary source of this economic value stems from the ability to better protect portfolio value and reduce the size of any erosion in return relative to the normal portfolio. Finally, I document the benefits of actively managing AD during the portfolio construction process and determine a number of portfolio management principles required to successfully manage AD. I illustrate that managing asymmetry risk in a portfolio of international equity indices results in increased return, decreased risk and decreased transaction costs. I show that in order to yield these benefits, investors must actively and dynamically manage their portfolio. Furthermore, I illustrate that the ability to short-sell assets provides most of the benefits described.

Asymmetric dependence (AD) is defined as dependence that differs across opposing regions of the joint return distribution. Recent evidence of AD between equity returns suggests that dependence can be decomposed into a linear component, captured by the correlation matrix, and a higher order component. When these higher order terms are characterised by increased correlation in bear or bull markets, the effectiveness of diversification strategies is reduced. To the extent that an investor is unable to completely diversify these higher order terms of dependence, it follows that they should be reflected in asset prices and managed explicitly during the portfolio construction process. The aim of this thesis is to determine the extent of AD amongst asset returns, to investigate whether AD is priced and to develop a means of managing AD in the portfolio. I justify the existence of AD and the separation of AD from linear dependence via the bivariate Edgeworth expansion, finding that the joint return distribution may be described by an infinite number of higher order co-moments. Correlation (and hence β) describes one dimension of an infinite number of higher dimensions describing dependence. To determine the importance of AD in finance, I first develop measures that can detect AD independent of the level of linear dependence and idiosyncratic risk. These measures are used to determine the extent of AD amongst US stock returns and the market, to obtain an understanding of how AD changes through time and to re-examine the evidence of AD between equity portfolios. By measuring AD separate from linear dependence, I demonstrate several findings. First, I find evidence of non-stationary AD that can exists irrespective of the magnitude of linear dependence, measured by β. This time-varying AD consists of both significant upper tail dependence (UTD) and significant lower tail dependence (LTD), although LTD is found to occur more frequently than UTD, especially for small stocks and stocks displaying high idiosyncratic risk. Significant time-varying AD is also detected between domestic equity indices and international equity markets, implying that if a portfolio is weighted towards certain industries or countries, portfolio construction methods may need to be adjusted in order too meet risk and return targets, particularly if future AD cannot be adequately forecasted. Next, I investigate whether AD is priced in US equities using the Fama and MacBeth (1973) regression methodology in conjunction with my β invariant AD metrics. I find that AD is as important as linear dependence in explaining the variation in returns. In particular, a positive relationship between LTD and return is found. I document an AD risk premium of 2.7% pa, compared to a β risk premium of 6.18% pa. The AD risk premium increases to 6.9% pa for stocks with significant LTD. This result holds after controlling for size, book-to-market ratio, downside β and coskewness. I also find past AD is a significant variable in predicting the future returns of small firms, whilst neither AD nor linear dependence predict the future returns of large firms. I subsequently demonstrate a means of incorporating AD structures during the portfolio construction process using copula functions. I then investigate how asymmetric return dependencies affect the efficient frontier and subsequent portfolio performance under a dynamic rebalancing framework. By considering the problem of tactically allocating a small set of domestic equity indices, I demonstrate several findings. First, I show that a Mean-Variance efficient frontier differs from the efficient frontier constructed under AD. Constructing paper portfolios based upon these differences, I find that real economic value lies in correctly accounting for AD structures. The primary source of this economic value stems from the ability to better protect portfolio value and reduce the size of any erosion in return relative to the normal portfolio. Finally, I document the benefits of actively managing AD during the portfolio construction process and determine a number of portfolio management principles required to successfully manage AD. I illustrate that managing asymmetry risk in a portfolio of international equity indices results in increased return, decreased risk and decreased transaction costs. I show that in order to yield these benefits, investors must actively and dynamically manage their portfolio. Furthermore, I illustrate that the ability to short-sell assets provides most of the benefits described.