This paper is an empirical study on Harry Markowitz work on Modern Portfolio Theory. The model introduced by him assumes the normality of assets’ return. We examined the OMX Large Cap List1 by mathematical and statistical methods for normality of assets’ returns. We studied the effect of the parameters, Skewness and Kurtosis for different time series data. We tried to figure it out which data series is better to construct a portfolio and how these extra parameters can make us better informed in our investments.

Why do people invest? People are insecure about their future welfare and aim for future guaranteed cash flows. To give ourselves a more thorough introduction to investments we decided to write our bachelor-thesis within the area of finance. This thesis will combine financial institutions and investments. It is a topic repeatedly discussed in the media and a study carried out in Sweden showed that in 2003, 80% of the population were shareholders. When trading with stocks and shares there is risk involved that can be defined as the volatility in the cash flow of an investment. A portfolio is a collection of securities that an investor has placed capital in. In order to minimise the risk of the portfolio, the investor can diversify his or her portfolio, which involves investing in different securities in order to minimise risk. Institutional Theory will help us to see how these financial institutions interact with each other and what internal and external factors may influence their behaviour. Institutional investors; such as banks, are seen as large actors on the financial markets as they gain more and more control over the management of equities. It is necessary that intermediaries take care of their customers and inform them thoroughly about the rules of the investment game. With this as a background we felt it would be interesting to investigate the following problem. On what basis do financial institutions create their customers’ portfolios and is the process the same across the branch as a whole? In order to find an answer to this question; we have done a qualitative study with an overall positivistic influence. The study is based upon an analysis of the empirical material; collected through interviews with three financial institutions, grounded in theory in order to answer our specific question. From the information gathered we understood that the first information financial institutions gather is personal information about the investors, which is needed to get a picture and an understanding about their client. We have also learned how important it is to understand risk, as it is the risk that will determine the composition of the portfolio for the investor. We could see with the help of the institutional theory that there is little space for differentiation and can therefore say that the financial institutions work in the same way in the advising of their clients and for the composition of their client’s portfolio. Our results show that the basis for the creation of portfolios is more or less the same across the branches as a whole. The service given may differ, due to the competence and knowledge level of employees, between institutions but the end product is similar in all aspects.

There are several authors Markowitz (1991), Elton and Gruber (1997) that discuss the main issues that an investor faces when investing, for example how to allocate resources among the variety of different securities. These issues have led to the discussion of portfolio theories, especially the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which is developed by Nobel Prize awarded economist Harry Markowitz. This theory is the philosophical opposite of tradi-tional asset picking. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate if an investor can apply MPT in order to achieve a higher return than investing in an index portfolio. Combining a strong portfolio that beats the market in the longrun would be the ultimate goal for most investors. The theories that are used to analyze the problem and the empirical findings provide the essential concepts such as standard deviation, risk and return of the portfolio. Further, diversification, correlation and covariance are used to achieve the optimal risky portfolio. There will be a walk-through of the MPT, with the efficient frontier as the graphical guide to express the optimal risky portfolio. The methodology constitutes as the frame for the thesis. The quantitative method is used since the data input is gathered from historical data. This thesis is based on existing theories, and the deductive approach aims to use these theories in order to accomplish a valid and accurate analysis. The benchmark that is used to compare the results from the portfolio is the Stockholm stock exchange OMX 30. This index mimics and reflects the market as a whole. The portfolio will be reweighed at a preplanned schedule, each quarter to constantly obtain an optimal risky portfolio. The finding from this study indicates that the actively managed portfolio outperforms the passive benchmark during the selected timeframe. The outcome someway differs when evaluating the risk adjusted result and becomes less significant. The risk adjusted result does not provide any strong evidence for a greater return than index. Finally, with this finding, the authors can conclude by stating that an actively managed optimal risky portfolio with guidance of the MPT can surpass the OMX 30 within the selected timeframe.

This study is a contribution to the development of the theory of bank portfolio selection behaviour. A central idea in the study is that this behaviour can be explained to a large extent by liquidity considerations which banks make in view of the partly uncontrollable and partly unforeseeable fluctuations which occur in their deposits and to a certain extent, also in their loans. This idea was presented originally in a now-classic article by Edgeworth entitled "The Mathematical Theory of Banking" which was published in 1888 and which has been the basis for a number of studies published in the past few decades. In the present study Edgeworth1s approach is developed in a number of different respects. At the same time, it is integrated with two other significant theory formations regarding banks' portfolio selection behaviour: (i) the well-known theory of the bank system's credit multiplier process which is found in many textbooks, and (ii) the related theory of the adjustment in the bank system's free reserves. Special attention is given to the effects of monetary policy. / digitalisering@umu

Problem: Is the free cash flow a value relevant accounting measure in relation to the Swedish stock market? Objective: The aim is that by using an investment strategy to examine whether the free cash flow is an accounting measure that could be perceived as value relevant in relation to the Swedish stock market. Method: The paper is based on a quantitative survey of empirical evidence that has been collected from companies listed on the Large and Mid-Cap lists of the Swedish stock market. Theoretical Frame of reference: value relevance, cash flow, portfolio theory, drive theory Results: It was concluded that the study results conform to the Finnish survey results. The portfolio shows higher returns than the OMX index.

Preview:     SEB Investment Strategy is the function in SEB that supports business units SEB      Private Banking and SEB Retail with investment philosophy and investment            process. The framework of SEB Investment Strategy encompasses to manage a     structured investment philosophy and process to produce a range of investment                    options and portfolios for different target groups. From January 2006 to October        2009 forty “Proposal for fund portfolios” were produced each containing         writing on market condition and expectations plus portfolio recommendations.        Each time four portfolios consisting of six mutual funds was recommended,                    Fund Portfolio 30, 50, 70 and 100. Fund Portfolio 30 (FP30) contained           30% equity fund and 70% fixed-income funds. By same reasoning FP50           contains 50/50 equity- and fixed-income funds, FP70, 70% equity funds and         30% fixed-income funds and FP100 only equity funds.   Purpose:      The aim of this work is to evaluate these SEB Investment Strategy recommended       portfolios for private SEB Retail clients from January 2006 to December 2009.    Evaluation is done by comparing the performance of recommended portfolios       with portfolios produced by applying Vasicek´s Technique and simplified   optimization technique.   Method:     To allow work with Vasicek´s Technique in which we are dependent on a market        portfolio, I have created an Index which includes SEB Mutual Funds and their         share of the Index is determined from each fund´s total assets in relation to the    sum of the total assets under management of all funds inclusive in the Index.   Index consists of 40 mutual funds 2002-2007 and 37 mutual funds 2008         and 2009. The total supply of funds has been reduced to the above numbers by             the following criteria:   Clients must be able to invest in funds through conventional SEB Fund Account. No initiation fees or sales charges. Minimum historical Net Asset Value prices (NAV-prices) from 2nd January 2002. Daily trading and at least 300 million SEK in assets under management. No Fund-in-Fund products. Only SEB or SEB Choice funds.   The closing daily NAV-prices (time series) of these funds have been obtained from seb.se/fonder from 2nd January 2002 to 28th December 2009. With prices daily returns are calculated and used for estimation of historical and average values of variables needed for computing forecasted Alphas and Betas according to Vasicek´s Technique. Mutual funds are then ranked with respect to excess return over forecasted Beta given risk free rate equal to Swedish government 1 month treasury-bill (SSVX1M) at time for optimisation. Top six ranked funds are included in the optimization process. The first optimized portfolio given actual T-bill is then compared to FP100 recommended by SEB Investment Strategy. In order to find optimized solutions to other recommended portfolios premiums are added to actual T-bill rate.

<p>Sammanfattning Introduktion: Sverige har en lång tradition av olika pensions system, så tidigt som 1914 blev det första sy-stemet implementerat. Systemet har blivit förändrat åtskilliga gånger och 1998 infördes Premie Pensions (PPM) systemet. PPM är en blandning av ett distributionsbaserat system och ett fondbaserat system. 16 procent av en individs inkomst är bundet till det distribu-tionsbaserade systemet för att kunna finansiera dagens pensioner. 2,5 procent av en indi-vids inkomst är låst till det fondbaserade systemet och kan investeras av individen i olika fonder. PPM systemet har blivit utsatt för mycket kritik eftersom tidigare studier påvisat att flertalet svenskar inte gör aktiva fondval samt att de har otillräcklig kunskap. Diversifiering förklaras bäst genom talesättet; att inte placera alla ägg i samma korg. Diver-sifiering är ett mått på hur väl en investerare lyckats sprida risken i sin portfölj genom att fördela tillgångarna i olika sorters värdepapper. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att studera huruvida svenskens pensionsportfölj inom PPM är diversifierad. Detta syfte valdes för att ingen tidigare studie med ett likadant syfte genomförts samt där-för att risken med att inneha en dåligt diversifierad portfölj kan vara stor. Metodval: En kvantitativ ansats har använts i denna uppsats då syftet med den är att dra slutsatser ba-serat på en stor urvalsgrupp. Andrahandsdata emottaget från PPM har uteslutande använts för att genomföra den empiriska studien. För att underlätta studien har en viss begränsning av information gjorts. I studien har ett urval av 100 individer samt 50 fonder använts. En avgränsning är att endast fonddata för de tre senaste åren använts. Trots dessa tillkorta-kommanden hävdar författarna att en hög validitet och reliabilitet har uppnåtts i uppsatsen. Slutsats: Efter att ha jämfört individernas portföljer mot efficient frontier, har åtskilliga resultat uppdagats som påvisar samma slutsats; att svenskens pensionsportfölj inom PPM är dåligt diversifie-rad. Handlingsplan för ansvariga: Att genomföra vidare studier med syfte att få mer kunskap om varför portföljerna är dåligt diversifierade samt implementera dessa resultat av studien i praktiken.</p> / <p>Introduction: Sweden has a long tradition of pension systems, as early as 1914 was the first system implemented. The system has been changed a number of times and in 1998 was the Premium pension authority (PPM) system introduced. PPM is a mixture of a distribution-based system and fund-based system. 16 per cent of an individual’s income is devoted to the distribution-based system for financing today’s pensions. 2.5 per cent of an individual’s income is looked in the fund-based system and can be invested by the individual in different funds. The PPM system has been a target for much criticism since earlier studies has shown that the Swedes do not make an active choice nor have the demanded knowledge. Diversification is best explained through the saying; not to place all your eggs in the same basket. Diversification is a measure of how well an investor has succeeded to spread the risk of the portfolio by allocating assets in different securities. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study whether the Swedish inhabitant’s pension portfolios within the PPM system are diversified. This purpose has been chosen because no studies have been made with an identical aim and also that the risk with holding a poorly diversified portfolio is grave. Methodology: A quantitative approach has been chosen since the aim of the thesis is to draw conclusions based on large sample numbers. Solitary secondary data, received from PPM, has been used to conduct the empirical study. To simplify the study limitations of information have been made; in the study samples of 100 individuals and 50 funds have been used. A Delimitation of the study is that only fund data for the last three years has been used. Despite the scarcities of the thesis the authors claim that the thesis has high validity and reliability. Conclusions: When benchmarking the individual portfolios against the efficient frontier a number of results were revealed and they all ended up in the same conclusion that the Swede’s pension portfolio within the PPM system is insufficient diversified. Implication for management of the PPM system To conduct further studies with the aim to get knowledge; why the investments are poorly diversified and find ways to transform the suggestions of the study into practice.</p>

<p>There are several authors Markowitz (1991), Elton and Gruber (1997) that discuss the main issues that an investor faces when investing, for example how to allocate resources among the variety of different securities. These issues have led to the discussion of portfolio theories, especially the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which is developed by Nobel Prize awarded economist Harry Markowitz. This theory is the philosophical opposite of tradi-tional asset picking.</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to investigate if an investor can apply MPT in order to achieve a higher return than investing in an index portfolio. Combining a strong portfolio that beats the market in the longrun would be the ultimate goal for most investors.</p><p>The theories that are used to analyze the problem and the empirical findings provide the essential concepts such as standard deviation, risk and return of the portfolio. Further, diversification, correlation and covariance are used to achieve the optimal risky portfolio. There will be a walk-through of the MPT, with the efficient frontier as the graphical guide to express the optimal risky portfolio.</p><p>The methodology constitutes as the frame for the thesis. The quantitative method is used since the data input is gathered from historical data. This thesis is based on existing theories, and the deductive approach aims to use these theories in order to accomplish a valid and accurate analysis. The benchmark that is used to compare the results from the portfolio is the Stockholm stock exchange OMX 30. This index mimics and reflects the market as a whole. The portfolio will be reweighed at a preplanned schedule, each quarter to constantly obtain an optimal risky portfolio.</p><p>The finding from this study indicates that the actively managed portfolio outperforms the passive benchmark during the selected timeframe. The outcome someway differs when evaluating the risk adjusted result and becomes less significant. The risk adjusted result does not provide any strong evidence for a greater return than index. Finally, with this finding, the authors can conclude by stating that an actively managed optimal risky portfolio with guidance of the MPT can surpass the OMX 30 within the selected timeframe.</p>

<p>The financial portfolio model often referred to as the Black-Litterman model is analyzed using two approaches; a mathematical and a behavioral finance approach. After a detailed description of its framework, the Black-Litterman model is derived mathematically using a sampling theoretical approach. This approach generates a new interpretation of the model and gives an interpretable formula for the mystical parameter<b> τ</b>, the weight-on-views. Secondly, implications are drawn from research results within behavioral finance. One of the most interesting features of the Black-Litterman model is that the benchmark portfolio, against which the performance of the portfolio manager is evaluated, functions as the point of reference. According to behavioral finance, the actual utility function of the investor is reference-based and investors estimate losses and gains in relation to this benchmark. Implications drawn from research results within behavioral finance indicate and explain why the portfolio output given by the Black-Litterman model appears more intuitive to fund managers than portfolios generated by the Markowitz model. Another feature of the Black-Litterman model is that the user assigns levels of confidence to each asset view in the form of confidence intervals. Research results within behavioral finance have, however, shown that people tend to be badly calibrated when estimating their levels of confidence. Research has shown that people are overconfident in financial decision-making, particularly when stating confidence intervals. This is problematic. For a deeper understanding of the use of the Black-Litterman model it seems that we should turn to those financial fields in which social and organizational context and issues are taken into consideration, to generate better knowledge of the use of the Black-Litterman model.</p>

<p>The final aim of this thesis is to evaluate opportunities and risk factors of investing in China, in terms of pros and cons, and also to elaborate an optimal portfolio strategy. The pros regarding investments in China are (1) the economic liberalisation and reforms of the institutional framework; (2) the Chinese market’s huge potential and the high-growth IT and telecommunications sectors; (3) a favourable macroeconomic climate and an impressive development. The cons are (1) the mismanagement of the state-run companies; (2) the mainland exchanges’ intra-year volatility; (3) the export sector’s performance might decline; (4) the institutional framework is largely responsible for many risk factors; (5) a tougher competition climate after the entry in the WTO. Also, our calculations on an optimal portfolio strategy suggest that less risk-averse investors may want to consider the World/Shanghai portfolio, whereas the World/Shenzhen portfolio might instead suit the preferences of more risk-averse investors.</p>