M.Comm. / This study analyzes the effect of the subprime crisis on portfolio allocation from the perspective of dependence structure. Empirical evidence has proved that the multivariate normal distribution is inadequate to model portfolio asset return distribution - firstly because the empirical marginal distributions of asset returns are skewed and fat tailed; and secondly because it does not consider the possibility of extreme joint co-movement of asset returns (Fama and French, 1993; Richardson and Smith, 1993; Géczy, 1998; Longin and Solnik, 2001; Mashal and Zeevi, 2002). This study employs Archimedean copulas to capture both the dependence structure and the asymmetry of asset returns in the tails of the empirical distributions.

This paper considers the problematic of business cycles. The author aggregates historical findings and development of opinions of business cycles. Author also evaluates methods of business cycle measurements with the use of economic indicators, including their analysis and understanding of their logic. Goal of the paper is to find a way to analyze economic cycles for use in asset allocation for portfolio management purposes.

This thesis contributes to the econometric literature in two ways. Firstly, it introduces a new multivariate count model that presents advances in several aspects. Our multivariate time series count model can deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion (variance greater than the mean) and both cross- and serial correlation, all at the same time. We follow a fully parametric approach and specify a marginal distribution for the counts where, conditionally on past observations the means follow a vector autoregressive process (VAR). This enables to attain improved inference on coefficients of exogenous regressors relative to the static Poisson regression, while modelling the serial correlation in a flexible way. The method is also innovative in the use of copulas, which builds the dependence structure between variables with given marginal distributions. This makes it possible to model the contemporaneous correlation between individual series in a very flexible way. Secondly, this thesis introduces a new approach to estimate the multivariate reduced rank regressions when the normality assumption is not satisfied. We propose to use the copula tool to generate multivariate distributions and, we show that this method can be applied in multivariate settings. In terms of financial literature, this thesis provides two contributions. Firstly, with our multivariate count model we analyze diverse market microstructure issues about the submission of different types of orders by traders on stock markets. With this model, we can fully take into account the interactions between submissions of the various types of orders, which represent an advantage with respect to univariate models such as the autoregressive conditional duration model. Secondly, it contributes to portfolio research proposing a new dynamic optimal portfolio allocation model in a Value-at-Risk setup. This model allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis of portfolio distributions and the model parameters are estimated by weighted maximum likelihood in an increasing window setup. This last property allows us to have more accurate portfolio recommendations in terms of the amount to invest in the risk-free interest rate and in the risky portfolio.

We compare the performance of the perturbation-based (local) portfolio solution method of Devereux and Sutherland (2010a, 2011) with a global solution method. As a test suite we use model specifications that broadly capture features of international financial trade, between advanced economies, and between advanced and emerging economies. We consider both symmetric country setups and asymmetric setups, that capture important empirical facts such as differences in macroeconomic volatility, differences in portfolio composition, and high equity premia. We find that the local method performs well at business cycle frequencies, both in the symmetric and asymmetric settings, while significant differences arise at long horizons in asymmetric settings. (authors' abstract)

This study evaluates the performance of Growth and Value Stock Investment Strategies and investigates the relative performance of these two types of stocks in Denmark and Finland. The research compares the historical returns and consequences of investing in value and growth stocks and examines the factors that drive their performance. The research questions focus on whether there is a significant difference in performance between value stocks portfolios and growth stocks portfolios. The study uses a deductive approach and a quantitative research design to analyze numerical data collected mainly from Thomson Reuters Eikon Datastream. Microsoft Excel and SPSS Statistics were the main tools used to form samples to process and analyze the data. The samples consist of listed stocks on the Danish and Finnish stock markets, and the portfolios are divided based on their Price-to-Book ratios and Price-To-Earnings ratios. The evaluated years are divided into four sub-periods to reflect different economic conditions. The findings suggest that there were significant differences in the performance of value and growth portfolios in the Finnish market during specific sub-periods, while in Denmark, there were no significant differences in returns between portfolios consisting of value stocks and portfolios consisting of growth stocks in all sub-periods, except for sub-period 3. The performance of the portfolios may be affected by factors such as interest rates, financial distress, and economic conditions in various sectors of the economy. The study's results can provide investors with insights into the relative performance of growth and value stocks and help them make informed decisions about stock allocation when forming portfolios, enhancing their investment strategies.

In this thesis, we discuss the possible diversification benefits offered by commodity futures, especially in the extreme equity market conditions. We see that adding commodity investments into portfolios could improve their performance with better diversification efficiency. However, with correlation estimation by methods developed by Longin and Solnik(2001) and Ang and Chen(2002), we see correlations between equity and commodity investments increase while they are on downside moves . The results suggest that the diversification benefits offered by commodity investment may change in different market conditions. For further examination, we divide our sample in groups ranked by the home market (U.S. equity investments) returns to see if the commodity-equity portfolio could still perform better over all-equity portfolio in different times. The statistical test shows that the commodity-equity portfolios still perform better than all-equity portfolios. We conclude that commodity investments could make portfolios better-diversified, no matter how the market conditions are.

Standard finance theory portrays investors as rational utility maximisers. Persisting market anomalies and observed investor practice, however, have led to widespread recognition that the fundamental axioms of rationality are often violated. In response to the limitations inherent in standard theory, the Behavioural Finance approach relaxes the rationality assumption and takes account of psychological influences on individuals’ decision-making processes. Adopting the behavioural approach, this thesis, which includes two empirical studies, examines why, and to what extent, investors depart from rational or optimal investment practices. The thesis examines the effect of Myopic Loss Aversion (MLA) suggested by Benartzi and Thaler (1995) as a response to the Equity Premium Puzzle highlighted by Mehra and Prescott (1985). While previous studies are almost exclusively based on experiments in a laboratory setting, this approach provides more compelling empirical evidence by investigating the effects of MLA on real individual investors’ portfolio allocations through the use of the Dutch National Bank Household Survey. For the first time, the concept of MLA is identified through the interaction of two separate effects, firstly, individuals’ myopia, reflected in portfolio evaluation and rebalancing frequencies, and secondly, loss aversion. The thesis finds that individuals who are less affected by MLA invest more in risky financial assets. Further, individuals who are less myopic increase their share of risky assets invested in their financial portfolios over time, although this is unrelated to their loss aversion. These findings support the prediction of MLA theory that short investment horizons and high loss aversion lead to a significantly lower share of risky investments. In summary, the high equity premium can be explained by the notion of MLA. If individuals evaluate their investment performance over the long-term, they perceive much smaller risks relative to stockholding returns; consequently, they will be prepared to accept smaller equity premiums. The findings suggest possible interventions by policy makers and investment advisors to encourage individuals to remain in the stock market, such as providing long-term investment instruments, or restricting evaluation frequency to the annual reporting of investment performance. In response to the stockholding puzzle (Haliassos and Bertaut, 1995), this thesis also investigates individuals’ stock market returns expectations and their varying levels of risk aversion. Previous studies find that individuals’ heterogeneous stock market expectations determine variations in their stockholdings. The thesis accounts for the effect of risk aversion on stock market expectations, as well as on stockholding decisions. Additionally, the causality issue as between individuals’ expectations and stockholding status is controlled. The thesis finds that more risk averse individuals hold lower stock market expectations, and that the stock market return expectations of more risk averse individuals affect their stock market participation decisions negatively. The portfolio allocation decisions of individuals who already hold stocks are only affected by their expectations, with risk aversion being no longer significant. The thesis argues that persistent risk aversion effects cause individuals to hold pessimistic views of stock market returns, thus contributing to the enduring stockholding puzzle. The thesis reinforces existing perceptions that individuals in the real world may not make fully rational decisions due to their judgments which are based on heuristics and affected by cognitive biases. Individual investors often fail to maximise their utility given their preferences and constraints. Consequently, this thesis draws attention to the possible role of institutions, policy makers, and financial advisory bodies in providing effective interventions and guidelines to improve individuals’ financial decisions.

Problem When choosing topic for this study the economy was on the brink of a recession. Many experts made varying statements regarding this fact, and further readings in this area led us to question: can an in- clusion of gold enhance the performance in an index portfolio dur- ing recessions? And if so, how much should be allocated to gold? Purpose The purpose of this thesis is to look back at the historical price de- velopment of gold and DJIA during recessions in order to find out whether an inclusion of gold can improve a DJIA index portfolio held in today’s recession. In addition, by analyzing the risks and pos- sibilities with gold, the optimal allocation of gold in a DJIA portfolio will be investigated in.   Method The methodological approach will be of a quantitative data analysis approach. By using historical data, new empirical findings will be found by using the deductive approach. This method has been cho- sen due to the nature of the purpose and in order to best give a gen- eral answer to our research questions. Conclusion The gold price is strongly influenced by uncertainty, and even though an optimal allocation of gold in each recession could be found, no general optimal allocation applicable in today’s recession could be found. Gold has higher risk (higher variance) than DJIA, but is compensated with higher return as well.

<p><strong>Problem</strong></p><p>When choosing topic for this study the economy was on the brink of a recession. Many experts made varying statements regarding this fact, and further readings in this area led us to question: can an in- clusion of gold enhance the performance in an index portfolio dur- ing recessions? And if so, how much should be allocated to gold?</p><p><strong>Purpose</strong></p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to look back at the historical price de- velopment of gold and DJIA during recessions in order to find out whether an inclusion of gold can improve a DJIA index portfolio held in today’s recession. In addition, by analyzing the risks and pos- sibilities with gold, the optimal allocation of gold in a DJIA portfolio will be investigated in.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Method</strong></p><p>The methodological approach will be of a quantitative data analysis approach. By using historical data, new empirical findings will be found by using the deductive approach. This method has been cho- sen due to the nature of the purpose and in order to best give a gen- eral answer to our research questions.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p><p>The gold price is strongly influenced by uncertainty, and even though an optimal allocation of gold in each recession could be found, no general optimal allocation applicable in today’s recession could be found. Gold has higher risk (higher variance) than DJIA, but is compensated with higher return as well.</p>

To θέμα της συγκεκριμένης διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι η βέλτιστη επιλογή χαρτοφυλακίου, η οποία μπορεί να επιτευχθεί μέσω του προσδιορισμού του βέλτιστου μεγέθους του χαρτοφυλακίου. Στo πρώτο κεφάλαιο, που αποτελεί και την εισαγωγή, διατυπώνεται ο αντικειμενικός σκοπός της διπλωματικής εργασίας και αναφέρεται η δομή της εργασίας. Στο δεύτερο κεφάλαιο αναφέρονται συνοπτικά η σύγχρονη θεωρία χαρτοφυλακίου και το Υπόδειγμα της Αποτίμησης Κεφαλαιακών Στοιχείων (CAPM). Στο τρίτο κεφάλαιο αναφέρονται συνοπτικά 4 μελέτες σχετικά με τον προσδιορισμό του βέλτιστου μεγέθους χαρτοφυλακίου. Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζεται η εμπειρική εφαρμογή. Στο πέμπτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζονται τα εμπειρικά αποτελέσματα της ανάλυσης. Στο έκτο κεφάλαιο διατυπώνονται τα συμπεράσματα που προκύπτουν από την ανάλυση και, επιπλέον, αναφέρεται η δυνατότητα για μελλοντική περαιτέρω έρευνα. / The subject of this diploma thesis is the optimal portfolio allocation, which can be achieved through the assignment of the optimal portfolio size. In the first chapter, which consists the introduction, the subjective purpose and the structure of the thesis are given. In the second chapter, the Modern Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model are referred in brief. In the third chapter, 4 studies relative to the assignment of the optimal portfolio size are referred briefly. In the fourth chapter, the empirical application is presented. In the fifth chapter, the empirical results of the analysis are also presented. Finally, in the sixth chapter, the conclusions are given and, additionally, the possibility for future further research is referred.