A presente dissertação tem por objetivo discutir diferentes aspectos de um método de modelagem econômica conhecido por Modelos Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC). Essa classe de modelos tem como principais características a presença de matrizes que representam os balanços patrimoniais dos setores modelados, bem como os fluxos de transações e de fundos financeiros. A primeira etapa do trabalho consiste em analisar as origens dos modelos SFC, apresentando os trabalhos que precederam as primeiras formulações. Em seguida, é feito um survey completo da literatura SFC corrente. Essas duas etapas são realizadas através de uma revisão bibliográfica de artigos, working papers, teses e dissertações. A terceira etapa do trabalho consiste em discutir aspectos metodológicos da modelagem SFC, em especial a modelagem de equações comportamentais de expectativas. Por fim, um modelo SFC é elaborado com o objetivo de analisar o comportamento de uma economia sob quatro regimes fiscais diferentes: (i) balanço equilibrado; (ii) meta de gastos do governo como proporção do PIB; (iii) meta de déficit do governo como proporção do PIB; (iv) meta de dívida pública como proporção do PIB. O comportamento em estado estacionário desses regimes é analisado, bem como sua resiliência a choques. Entre as conclusões, percebeu-se que o segundo regime apresenta a maior taxa de crescimento no steady state, além de ser mais resiliente a choques negativos. / The general goal of this dissertation is to discuss different dimensions of a class of Post-Keynesian models known as Stock-Flow Consistent Models. The main features of these models are: (i) the presence of balance sheets matrices of the sectors to be modeled, guaranteeing the consistency in the economic stocks; (ii) the flow of funds matrix, that records the real and financial transactions of the economy. The first step of the work is to analyze the origins of the SFC models, presenting the works that preceded the first elaborations. Next to it, the current SFC literature is surveyed. These two steps are accomplished by means of a survey of the literature in academic journals, working papers, dissertations and thesis. The third step of the work is a discussion of methodological issues such as the role of expectations in the behavioral functions for consumption. Finally, the fourth step consists of elaborating a SFC model in order to analyze four fiscal policy regimes: (i) balanced budget, (ii) a target for government’s expenditures , (iii) a target for government deficit, and (iv) a target for government debt. The steady state behavior of each regime is analyzed, as well as its resilience to adverse shocks. The second regime is the one with the higher steady state growth rate and also is the more resilient to negative shocks.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:24:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-09-16Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:51:44Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 calheiros_rp_me_arafcl.pdf: 942748 bytes, checksum: f54121cd84f284bd848d652c31588277 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / O presente trabalho buscou delinear o perfil do crédito à pessoa jurídica no Brasil após o Plano Real até 2007, assim como analisar o comportamento da estrutura ofertante de crédito no período pela perspectiva Pós-Keynesiana. Utilizando-se dados de volume, juros, prazos entre outros e usufruindo de vários níveis de desagregação dos dados fornecidos, principalmente, pelo Banco Central do Brasil, foi possível definir os agentes credores mais importantes das empresas, destacando-se o papel dos dez maiores bancos múltiplos, do BNDES e do mercado de capitais nesse aspecto. Concluiu-se que houve uma “divisão de tarefas” entre os agentes credores: os bancos múltiplos e comerciais concederam recursos estritamente de curto prazo, nas modalidades de Capital de Giro e de adiantamentos de receitas. O BNDES sustentou a demanda por crédito para a finalidade de investimentos, além de servir de agente anti-cíclico em momentos de retração no crédito. Já o mercado de capitais serviu mais como uma oportunidade exclusivamente para empresas de grande porte do que uma alternativa ao BNDES e ao crédito bancário, já que mostrou-se consistente apenas em períodos de estabilidade econômica. Além da divisão de tarefas concluiu-se que o crédito foi influenciado pela preferência pela liquidez por parte dos agentes credores, já que os mesmos pareceram realizar o trade-off liquidez/rentabilidade, restringindo o crédito em momentos de aversão ao risco, e aumentando a participação do crédito em momentos de maior estabilidade econômica. / The present work aims at delineate the credit profile to the firms in Brazil after Plano Real up to 2007, as well as analyzing the behavior of the supply credit structure in the period in the Post Keynesian Approach. We analyzed fluctuations of the stock of credit, levels of interests, and using several levels of disaggregation of the data, mainly, for the Central Bank of Brazil, it was possible to define the more important suppliers agents of the firms, standing out the role of the ten larger multiple banks, of BNDES and of the stock markets in that aspect. It concludes that there was a division of tasks among the suppliers agents: the multiple and commercial banks granted resources strictly of short period. BNDES sustained the demand for credit for the purpose of investments, besides emerging as an anti-cyclical agent in moments of retraction in the credit. Already the stock market were used more as an opportunity exclusively for strong companies of than an alternative to BNDES and the bank credit, since it was shown solid just in periods of economical stability. Besides the division of tasks it concluded that the credit was influenced by the liquidity preference on the part of the suppliers’ agents, since the same ones seemed to were driving by liquidity/return trade-off, restricting the credit in moments of aversion to of risk, and increasing the participation of the credit in moments of larger economical stability.

This paper presents a post-Keynesian ecological macro model that combines three strands of literature: the directed technological change mechanism developed in mainstream endogenous growth theory models, the ecological economic literature which highlights the role of green innovation and material flows, and the post-Keynesian school which provides a framework to deal with the demand side of the economy, financial flows, and inter- and intra-sectoral behavioral interactions. The model is stock-flow consistent and introduces research and development (R&D) as a component of GDP funded by private firm investment and public expenditure. The economy uses three complimentary inputs - Labor, Capital, and (non-renewable) Resources. Input productivities depend on R&D expenditures, which are determined by relative changes in their respective prices. Two policy experiments are tested; a Resource tax increase, and an increase in the share of public R&D on Resources. Model results show that policy instruments that are continually increased over a long-time horizon have better chances of achieving a "green" transition than one-of climate policy shocks to the system, that primarily have a short-run affect. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is used to construct two different indices for financial instability: a long-term index (Long Term Financial Instability) and a short-term index (Short Term Financial Instability). The former focuses on the underlying fragility of financial structures of units in the economy while the latter focuses on more immediate developments and manages to follow turmoil – “a financial crisis” – in the economy. The interplay of the indices with each other, with economic growth and with Foreign Direct Investment, both in general and in the financial industry, is probed. In short, we find that long term financial stability, i.e. secure financial structures in the economy or a low level of Long Term Financial Instability, is sacrificed for maintaining short term financial stability. However, more Long Term Financial Instability is associated, as Minsky expected, with more fluctuations in Short Term Financial Instability: market turmoil is more common the more fragile underlying financial structures of units in the economy are. This signals that markets are ruled by short-termism. Economic growth is harmed by Short Term Financial Instability but the effects of Long Term Financial Instability are weaker. The common expectation that FDI activities strengthen financial stability is not confirmed. The relationship found hints rather in the opposite direction: FDI activities seem to cause financial instability. Based on the those investigations and a further empirical work using data from Iceland, Leigh Harkness’s Optimum Exchange Rate System (OERS) is developed further with the intention of solving “The Policy Problem” as described by Minsky. Insights from control theory are used. The OERS, along with public debt management as carried out by Keynes, is argued to have the ability to keep economic activity in the state of a permanent “quasi-boom”. The policy implications are that the OERS should be considered as a monetary policy as it permits a free flow of capital, thereby allowing economies to reap the possible positive benefits of foreign direct investment, while still conserving financial stability.

Orientador: Eduardo Strachman / Resumo: Em um ambiente de globalização financeira, a taxa de câmbio se coloca como uma variável de relativa importância para uma economia. A justificativa para isso está centrada no fato de que ela representa um dos principais preços relativos de uma economia e, portanto, estudos que buscam descobri a sua determinação, os seus movimentos e a sua dinâmica estão constantemente presentes na literatura econômica. A emergência sobre essa temática surgiu após o fim do acordo de Bretton Woods em 1973, no qual o seu fim resultou em mudanças na arquitetura do sistema monetário e financeiro internacional, modificando, entre várias coisas, o relacionamento dos países com as suas respectivas taxas de câmbio. Em alguns países o regime de câmbio flutuante foi adotado em detrimento do regime de câmbio fixo, e com isso as taxas de câmbio passaram a apresentar um comportamento altamente volátil, o que despertou a curiosidade sobre este fato. O comportamento volátil das taxas de câmbio somado a propagação da globalização financeira, ocasionou o processo de “financeirização” das taxas. Este processo estreitava a relação do câmbio com os fluxos de capitais de curto prazo, além de permitir ganhos especulativos com a variação cambial. Com essa nova realidade, alguns estudos emergiram com o objetivo de explicar a nova dinâmica cambial. É neste contexto que surgiu a abordagem pós-keynesiana de determinação cambial, que traz como um dos fundamentos a criação do Modelo Mental. O modelo mental seria um esquema... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The following study aims to verify the applicability of the mental model to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate in Brazil from 2001 to 2018. The end of Bretton Woods agreement in 1973 led to changes in the international financial architecture, such as the ones observed in the relationship between a country with its exchange rate. As some countries chose the floating Exchange rate regime instead of the fixed one. the exchange rates of the following years presented a highly volatile behavior. This behavior added to financial globalization, growing demand for liquid assets, and deep markets, caused a financialization of the Exchange rate. This process strengthened the relation of the Exchange rate to short-term capital flows. In addition, it permitted speculation profits from the exchange variation. In this same period, lots of theories and models were formulated trying to explain this new outline. Among them, there is the post Keynesian approach of exchange rate determination. According to it, agents’ expectations and short-term capital flows are the driving force of currency movements. Thus, this approach created a mental model which delineates the development of those expectations. The complete mental model has three phases; indicators, base factors, and processes, and it will be used as part of this paper methodology. As this study is a descriptive and explanatory, its methodological procedures were divided in two parts. First, there is a descriptive statistical analys... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

The phenomenal financial expansion of the last decades has been characterised by an exacerbation of systemic instability and an increase in the frequency of financial crises, culminating in the recent meltdown in the US financial sector. The literature on financial crises has developed concomitantly, but despite a large number of papers written on this subject, economists are still struggling to understand the underlying determinants of these phenomena. In this dissertation, I argue that one of the reasons for this apparent failure is the way agents, as well as the environment in which they evolve, are modelled in this literature. After reviewing the existing literature on international financial crises, I outline an alternative framework, drawing from Post-Keynesian and Behavioural insights. In this framework, international financial crises are seen as being a direct consequence of the way agents formulate expectations in an environment of fundamental uncertainty and the investment and financial decisions they subsequently take. I argue that the psychological heuristics agents use in formulating expectations under fundamental uncertainty can lead to decisions which fragilise the economy and can thus be conducive to financial crises. I then apply this framework to the study of the 2000-2001 financial crisis in Turkey, which is notorious for not lending itself easily to explanations based on the existing theoretical literature on international financial crises. After outlining the crisis and reviewing the main existing accounts, I identify two moments prior to the crisis: A phase of increasing financial fragility, lasting from a previous crisis in 1994 to 1999, and a financial bubble in 2000 during the implementation of an IMF stabilisation program, partly predicated on the previous increase in financial fragility. My framework can account for both periods; it fits particularly well the first one and enhances the explanatory content of existing stories about the events that took place in 2000.

<p>The aim of this thesis is to provide mathematical tools for an alternative to the mainstream study of macroeconomics with a focus on debt-driven dynamics.</p> <p>We start with a survey of the literature on formalizations of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis in the context of stock-flow consistent models.</p> <p>We then study a family of macro-economical models that date back to the Goodwin model. In particular, we propose a stochastic extension where noise is introduced in the productivity. Besides proving existence and uniqueness of solutions, we show that orbits must loop around a specific point indefinitely.</p> <p>Subsequently, we analyze the Keen model, where private debt is introduced. We demonstrate that there are two key equilibrium points, intuitively denoted good and bad equilibria. Analytical stability analysis is followed by numerical study of the basin of attraction of the good equilibrium.</p> <p>Assuming low interest rate levels, we derive an approximate solution through perturbation techniques, which can be solved analytically. The zero order solution, in particular, is shown to converge to a limit cycle. The first order solution, on the other hand, is shown to explode, rendering its use dubious for long term assessments.</p> <p>Alternatively, we propose an extension of the Keen model that addresses the immediate completion time of investment projects. Using distributed time delays, we verify the existence of the key equilibrium points, good and bad, followed by their stability analysis. Through bifurcation theory, we verify the existence of limit cycles for certain mean completion times, which are absent in the original Keen model.</p> <p>Finally, we examine the Keen model under government intervention, where we introduce a general form for the government policy. Besides performing stability analysis, we prove several results concerning the persistence of both profits and employment. In economical terms, we demonstrate that when the government is responsive enough, total economic meltdowns are avoidable.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Questo lavoro si compone di due parti. La prima parte, costituita dal capitolo primo, fornisce una comparazione teorica di due teorie economiche in ambito di dottrina monetaria, ovvero la teoria New Keynesiana e quella Post Keynesiana. Nella seconda parte, viene ideato e implementato attraverso il software un modello teorico macroeconomico di impostazione Post Keynesiana. L’argomento di analisi è il processo di cartolarizzazione – illustrato nel capitolo 2 – che è stato al centro della crisi finanziaria che ha colpito gli Stati Uniti nel 2007-2009. L’obiettivo del lavoro è quello di analizzare, attraverso la costruzione di un modello – esposto nel capitolo 3 – che utilizza la metodologia Stock-Flow Consistent, i collegamenti tra il settore finanziario e il mercato delle case al fine di stabilire la natura della crisi: si è trattato di una crisi trainata dalla finanza o dal comportamento delle famiglie? La novità del nostro lavoro consiste nella descrizione dettagliata nell’ambito dell’approccio Stock-Flow Consistent del comportamento delle banche private, assumendo una gestione attiva di bilancio da parte delle banche di investimento. / This work is basically divided into two parts. The first part – chapter 1 – provides a comparison between two theory of monetary economics: New Keynesian and Post Keynesian. The second part is represented by the elaboration and implementation of a theoretical macroeconomic model, grounded in Post Keynesian theory. The subject under investigation is the securitization process – illustrated in chapter 2 – which has been at the centre of the 2007-2009 crisis in the United States. The aim is to analyze, through the construction of an elaborate model – in chapter 3 – the links between the financial sector and the housing market and to assess the nature of the crisis: was the 2007-2009 financial crisis a households-led or a finance-led crisis? The novelty of our work is represented by the detailed description in the Stock-Flow Consistent approach of the private banking sector, assuming that investment banks carry out an active management of their balance sheets.

The assertion that financial flows are the primary drivers of exchange rates may be considered as financial markets become increasingly large and sophisticated. However, the Post-Keynesian critique leaves little room for the real economy to impact exchange rates. This paper aims to extend the Mundell-Fleming model to address the Post-Keynesian critique of mainstream models, by incorporating wealth effects, expectations, and Taylor-rule interest targeting. Discussion of significant financial events affecting the USDJPY exchange rate finds that wealth effects are significant considerations, and that the real economy cannot be discounted completely. Empirical results find that the real interest rate is a significant factor in exchange rate determination, tying into the discussion over the relationship between savings and consumption.

New Consensus Models (NCMs) have been criticised by Post-Keynesians (PKs) for a variety of reasons. The paper presents a model that synthesises several of the PK arguments. The model consists of three classes: rentiers, firms and workers. It has a short-run inflation barrier derived from distribution conflict between these classes, which is endogenous in the medium run. Distribution conflict does not only affect inflation but also income shares. On the demand side the income classes have different saving propensities. We apply a Kaleckian investment function with expected sales and internal funds as major determinants. The paper analyses short-run stability and includes medium-run endogeneity channels for the Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU): persistence mechanisms in the labour market, adaptive wage and profit aspirations, investment in capital stock and cost effects of interest rate changes. The model is used to analyse NCM and PK policy assignments and policy rules. We argue that improved employment without increasing inflation will be possible, if macroeconomic policies are coordinated along the following lines: The central bank targets distribution, wage bargaining parties target inflation and fiscal policies are applied for short- and medium-run real stabilisation purposes. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series