This dissertation provides one methodology to determine potential energy savings of buildings with limited information. This methodology is based upon the simplified energy analysis procedure of HVAC systems and the control of the comfort conditions. Numerically, the algorithm is a tailored exhaustive search over all the independent variables that are commonly controlled for a specific type of HVAC system. The potential energy savings methodology has been applied in several buildings that have been retrofitted and/or commissioned previously. Results from the determined savings for the Zachry building at Texas A&M after being commissioned show a close agreement to the calculated potential energy savings (about 85%). Differences are mainly attributed to the use of simplified models. Due to the restriction of limited information about the building characteristics and operational control, the potential energy savings method requires the determination of parameters that characterize its thermal performance. Thus, a calibrated building is needed. A general procedure has been developed to carry out automated calibration of building energy use simulations. The methodology has been tested successfully on building simulations based on the simplified energy analysis procedure. The automated calibration is the minimization of the RMSE of the energy use over daily conditions. The minimization procedure is fulfilled with a non-canonical optimization algorithm, the Simulated Annealing, which mimics the Statistical Thermodynamic performance of the annealing process. That is to say, starting at a specified temperature the algorithm searches variable-space states that are steadier, while heuristically, by the Boltzmann distribution, the local minima is avoided. The process is repeated at a new lower temperature that is determined by a specific schedule until the global minimum is found. This methodology was applied to the most common air-handler units producing excellent results for ideal cases or for samples modified with a 1% white noise.

This thesis has improved Baltazar's methodology for potential energy savings estimation from retro-commissioning/retrofits measures. Important improvements and discussions are made on optimization parameters, limits on optimization parameter values, minimum airflow setting for VAV systems, space load calculation, simulation of buildings with more than one type of system, AHU shutdown simulation, and air-side simulation models. A prototype computer tool called the Potential Energy Savings Estimation (PESE) Toolkit is developed to implement the improved methodology and used for testing. The implemented methodology is tested in two retro-commissioned on-campus buildings with hourly measured consumption data. In the Sanders Corps of Cadets Center, the optimized profiles of parameter settings in single parameter optimizations can be explained with engineering principles. It reveals that the improved methodology is implemented correctly in the tool. The case study on the Coke Building shows that the improved methodology can be used in buildings with more than one system type. The methodology is then used to estimate annual potential energy cost savings for 14 office buildings in Austin, TX with very limited information and utility bills. The methodology has predicted an average total potential savings of 36% for SDVAV systems with electric terminal reheat, 22% for SDVAV systems with hot water reheat, and 25% for DDVAV systems. The estimations are compared with savings predicted in the Continuous Commissioning assessment report. The results show it may be helpful to study the correlation by using generalized factors of assessment predicted energy cost savings to estimated potential energy cost savings. The factors identified in this application are 0.68, 0.66, and 0.61 for each type of system. It is noted that one should be cautious in quoting these factors in future projects. In the future, it would be valuable to study the correlation between measured savings and estimated potential savings in a large number of buildings with retrocommissioning measures implemented. Additionally, further testing and modifications on the PESE Toolkit are necessary to make it a reliable software tool.