Drought poses a threat to socio-economic activities across eastern Africa and its river basins. While there are indications that global warming may continue to enhance evaporation and intensify droughts at all scales, most drought projections over eastern Africa are based on rainfall alone and are limited to meteorological droughts. The present study combines rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) to examine the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in present and future climates at the regional and river basin scales. To accomplish that we have applied five objectives; i) Study the temporal and spatial characteristics of eastern Africa droughts modes, ii) Investigate how some atmospheric teleconnections influence the characteristics of the Africa droughts modes, iii) Examine the influence of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels on drought modes in eastern Africa under two future climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 iv) Assess how increases in global warming will influence drought characteristics over eastern African river basins. v) Examine the potential impacts of climate change and land use change on water availability in the Rufiji River basin (RRB), Tanzania, with an emphasis of hydrological droughts in this basin. Different types of datasets, including gridded and station observation datasets, regional climate model simulations (CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) and hydrological simulations (SWAT: Soil and Water Assessment Tool), were analysed for the study. The meteorological drought were characterised using two indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) at 3- and 12-month scales, while the hydrological droughts were characterised using four indices (i.e. soil water index, SWI; Surface Runoff Index, RFI; Water Yield Index, WYI; and Stream Flow index, SFI). The study combined principal component analysis (PCA) with wavelet analysis to identify the spatio-temporal structure of four dominant drought modes over the region. It also used wavelet coherence to quantify the influence of four atmospheric teleconnections (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO; Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD; Tropical Atlantic Dipole Index, TADI; and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO) on the drought modes. The study also projects the characteristics of future droughts over eastern Africa and its major river basins at different global warming levels (GWLs). Series of hydrological simulations were used to assess the sensitivity of future droughts to four land use change scenarios (i.e. increase in forestry, shrubs, cropland and agriculture) over the Rufiji River Basin (RRB), a prominent river basin in eastern Africa. Although eastern Africa have been documented with several drought studies, the application of a combination of PCA, Wavelet analysis, wavelet coherence and Self Organizing Maps provides more comprehensive representation of droughts in the region using SPEI/SPI derived from both models and observations The results of the study show that the four drought modes, which have their core areas over different parts of eastern Africa, account for more than 45% of drought variability in the region. All the drought modes are strongly coupled with either ENSO or IOD indices (or both); but, in addition, one of the modes is also strongly coupled with the TADI. CORDEX models give a realistic simulation of the relevant climate variables for calculating drought indices over eastern Africa and the river basins. However, the ensemble mean struggles to reproduce the spatial distribution and frequency of drought intensity in the region. The CORDEX simulations project no changes in the spatial structure of the drought modes but suggest an increase in SPEI drought intensity and frequency over the hotspots of the drought modes and elsewhere in the region. The magnitude of the increase, which varies over the drought mode hotspots, increases with increasing GWLs. The projections also show that the increase in intensity and frequency of drought can be attributed more to increased PET than to reduced precipitation. In contrast to the SPEI projection, the SPI projection shows a weak change in intensity and frequency of droughts, and the magnitude of the increase does not vary with the GWLs. Over the river basins, the SPEI projections are more robust than the SPI projections. Over the RRB, the future projections of some hydrological drought indices (i.e. RFI and SFI) follow the change in the SPEI projections, while others (i.e. SWI and WYI) follow that of SPI. Among the four land use scenarios considered, only forestry and shrubs show a substantial change in the hydrological drought indices. The results of the study thus give valuable insight into the characteristics of future droughts in eastern Africa and provide a useful guide to the effectiveness of using land cover to reduce the severity of hydrological droughts over river basins in the region. However, resolution of CORDEX dataset (50km, i.e. 0.44deg) could be among the potential limitation as it is too low to capture the influence of local-scale processes (e.g. sea breeze, mountain induced circulations) on drought over the region.

Climate information is valuable in understanding the ecology of systems affecting wildlife. This information is often unavailable at the landscape scale. This study evaluated the applicability of several climate factor estimates at the landscape-scale, and illustrated the usefulness of estimated climate factors in ecological investigations. Climate variables estimated for each month of the year were solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. Map layers for combined temperature and precipitation, and a moisture index were also created. Accuracy of the estimates for temperature and precipitation for each 300 m x 300 m pixel were quantitatively assessed. The methods used estimated mean monthly temperature within 1 degree C. Precipitation estimates were within 9 mm of actual recorded value. The estimates for monthly solar radiation were qualitatively assessed, and provided a reasonable relative index to actual solar radiation. Estimates of potential evapotranspiration were determined to be reasonably accurate. Landscape-scale estimated climate factors were used in 2 case studies. The first used logistic regression to examine the importance of climate factors to the observed distribution of 21 select forest cover-types in Virginia.The second compared the observed climate characteristics for the distributions of 3 species of terrestrial salamanders in Virginia. Winter temperature was the most important climate variable in determining forest cover-type distribution. Several differences in the climate characteristics of the 3 salamander distributions were observed and discussed. The conclusions of this study were that landscape-scale climate factors can be accurately estimated, and the estimates may be helpful in ecological investigations. / Master of Science

<p>The analysis of geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic data interpreted to give the characteristics of the Cape Flats aquifer showed the quality of groundwater from the aquifer is suitable for development as a water resource. The conceptual model of the Cape Flats sand shows an unconfined sandy aquifer, grading into semi-confined conditions in some places where thick lenses of clay and peat exists. Recharge rates through the saturated zone of the Cape Flats aquifer have been determined by water table fluctuation (WTF), rainfall-recharge relationship, soil water balance and chloride mass balance methods (CMB). Recharge rates using the WTF vary considerably between wet and dry years and between locations, with a range of 17.3% to 47.5%. Values obtained from empirical rainfall-recharge equation (method 2) agree with those of the WTF. Recharge estimates from the water balance model are comparatively lower but are within the range calculated using empirical method 2 (i.e. 87 &ndash / 194 mm or 4 &ndash / 21% of MAP). These recharge rates also agree with estimates from the series of other methods applied to sites located in the north-western coast of Western Cape and are comparable to recharge rates obtained elsewhere in the world.</p>

<p>The analysis of geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic data interpreted to give the characteristics of the Cape Flats aquifer showed the quality of groundwater from the aquifer is suitable for development as a water resource. The conceptual model of the Cape Flats sand shows an unconfined sandy aquifer, grading into semi-confined conditions in some places where thick lenses of clay and peat exists. Recharge rates through the saturated zone of the Cape Flats aquifer have been determined by water table fluctuation (WTF), rainfall-recharge relationship, soil water balance and chloride mass balance methods (CMB). Recharge rates using the WTF vary considerably between wet and dry years and between locations, with a range of 17.3% to 47.5%. Values obtained from empirical rainfall-recharge equation (method 2) agree with those of the WTF. Recharge estimates from the water balance model are comparatively lower but are within the range calculated using empirical method 2 (i.e. 87 &ndash / 194 mm or 4 &ndash / 21% of MAP). These recharge rates also agree with estimates from the series of other methods applied to sites located in the north-western coast of Western Cape and are comparable to recharge rates obtained elsewhere in the world.</p>

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The analysis of geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic data interpreted to give the characteristics of the Cape Flats aquifer showed the quality of groundwater from the aquifer is suitable for development as a water resource. The conceptual model of the Cape Flats sand shows an unconfined sandy aquifer, grading into semi-confined conditions in some places where thick lenses of clay and peat exists. Recharge rates through the saturated zone of the Cape Flats aquifer have been determined by water table fluctuation (WTF), rainfall-recharge relationship, soil water balance and chloride mass balance methods (CMB). Recharge rates using the WTF vary considerably between wet and dry years and between locations, with a range of 17.3% to 47.5%. Values obtained from empirical rainfall-recharge equation (method 2) agree with those of the WTF. Recharge estimates from the water balance model are comparatively lower but are within the range calculated using empirical method 2 (i.e. 87 - 194 mm or 4 &ndash; 21% of MAP). These recharge rates also agree with estimates from the series of other methods applied to sites located in the north-western coast of Western Cape and are comparable to recharge rates obtained elsewhere in the world. / South Africa

Com o objetivo de avaliar o desenvolvimento e qualidade de mudas de três espécies nativas do Cerrado, em função de lâminas de irrigação e tamanhos de recipiente, três experimentos foram conduzidos em casa de vegetação, em Piracicaba, São Paulo. As espécies utilizadas foram o jatobazeiro (Hymenaea courbaril L.), a pitangueira (Eugenia uniflora L.) e o baruzeiro (Dipteryx alata Vog.), nos Experimentos I, II e III, respectivamente. Os experimentos foram instalados no delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com três repetições, em parcelas subdivididas, no esquema 2 x 5. Nas parcelas, utilizaram-se dois tamanhos de recipientes, e nas subparcelas, cinco lâminas de irrigação (20%, 40%, 60%, 80% e 100% da evapotranspiração potencial - ETp, obtida por pesagem das mudas). Cada subparcela foi constituída por oito mudas, espaçadas em 22,5 cm entre si. Os recipientes, no Experimento I, foram vasos de 3,1 L e citrovasos de 4,0 L, enquanto nos Experimentos II e III, foram utilizados vasos (2,3 L) e sacos de polietileno (2,0 L). O substrato foi constituído de uma mistura de 50% substrato comercial e 50% areia fina (v/v). Para cada 100 L da mistura, foram adicionados 15 L de vermiculita. Utilizou-se o sistema de irrigação por gotejamento, com emissores autocompensantes de 2,0 e 4,0 L h-1, em diferentes combinações para atender as lâminas. As irrigações foram realizadas diariamente. Durante o período experimental, foram registrados em datalogger, a temperatura, a umidade relativa e a radiação solar global, e em tanque Classe A, a evaporação. Aos 80, 120, 160 e 200 dias após a semeadura (DAS), foram avaliados a altura, o diâmetro de caule e o número de folhas. Aos 120, 160 e 200 DAS, foram mensurados a área foliar, o comprimento do sistema radicular, as massas de matéria seca de raízes, caule, folhas e de muda, a relação das massas de matéria seca de raízes e parte aérea (MSR/MSPA) e a qualidade das mudas (Índice de Qualidade de Dickson - IQD). O coeficiente de cultivo (Kc) foi determinado em cinco fases de desenvolvimento. Lâminas de irrigação de 90,1% a 100% da ETp proporcionaram maior desenvolvimento vegetativo e IQD das mudas de H. courbaril L., até 200 dias de idade. Com relação aos recipientes, maior desenvolvimento de mudas de jatobazeiro, pitangueira e baruzeiro foi observado no citrovaso, no vaso (2,3 L) e no saco plástico, respectivamente. Mudas de pitangueira e de baruzeiro apresentaram maior desenvolvimento e IQD, na lâmina de irrigação de 100% (ausência de deficit hídrico). Maior ac úmulo de matéria seca pelo jatobazeiro e baruzeiro, foi observado de 120 a 160 DAS, e pela pitangueira, de 160 a 200 DAS. Mudas de pitangueira submetidas a deficit hídrico mais intenso, se mostraram resistentes à seca, em razão da maior relação MSR/MSPA. Nos primeiros 200 dias após semeadura, o Kc das espécies, obtido pela metodologia de Penman-Monteith apresentou os seguintes valores: 0,54 a 1,01 (H. courbaril L), 0,35 a 0,67 (E. uniflora L.) e 0,52 a 0,85 (D. alata Vog), sendo maior na fase de 160 a 200 DAS. / Aiming to evaluate the development and seedlings quality of three native plants species of the Savannah, in function of irrigation levels and container sizes, three experiments were carried in greenhouse, in Piracicaba, São Paulo. The species used were jatoba plant (Hymenaea courbaril L.), Surinam cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) and \"baru\" plant (Dipteryx alata Vog.) in the Experiments I, II and III, respectively. The experiments were installed in randomized blocks design, with three replications, in split-plot, in the scheme 2 x 5. Two sizes of containers were used in the plots, and five irrigation levels (20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% of the potential evapotranspiration - ETp, obtained by weighting of seedlings) were used in the subplots. Each subplots was constituted by eight seedlings, at the spacing 22.5 cm between themselves. The containers in the Experiment I, were pots 3.1 L and stiff plastic tube of 4.0 L, while in the Experiments II and III, pots (2.3 L) and container of polyethylene (2.0 L) were used. The substrate was constituted of 50% commercial substrate and 50% fine sand (v/v) mixture. Fifteen liters of vermiculite were added per each 100 L of that mixture. The drip irrigation system was used, with self compensating emitters at flow of 2.0 and 4.0 L h-1, in different combinations to satisfy the irrigation levels. The irrigations were accomplished daily. During the experimental period, the temperature, relative humidity and global solar radiation were recorded in data logger, and the evaporation was mensured in class A pan. The seedling height, the stem diameter and leaves number were appraised at the 80, 120, 160 and 200 days after sowing (DAS), while the leaf area, the root system length, the dry matter mass of roots, stem, leaves and seedling, the ratio between roots dry matter mass and aerial part (MSR/MSPA) and seedlings quality (Dickson Quality Index - IQD) were measured at 120, 160 and 200 DAS. The crop coefficient (Kc) was determined in five stages of the species development. Irrigation levels between 90.1% and 100% of ETp provided larger vegetative development and IQD of H courbaril L. seedlings, up to 200 days of age. Regarding the containers, larger development of the H. courbaril L., E. uniflora L. and D. alata Vog. seedlings was obtained in the stiff plastic tube, the pot (2.3 L) and the polyethylene container, respectively. E. uniflora L. and D. alata Vog. seedlings presented larger development and IQD, under the irrigation level 100% (absence of water deficit). Larger dry matter mass production of the H. courbaril L. and D. alata Vog. seedlings was observed between 120 and 160 DAS, and of the E. uniflora L., in the stage from 160 to 200 DAS. E. uniflora L. seedlings under to more intense water deficit, they presented resistance to the drought, in reason of the largest ratio MSR/MSPA. Seedlings of up to 200 days after sowing, the Kc presented the following values, by methodology of Penman-Monteith: 0.54-1.01 (H. courbaril L), 0.35-0.67 (E. uniflora L.) and 0.52-0.85 (D. alata Vog.), being larger in the stage from 160 to 200 DAS.

Com o objetivo de avaliar o desenvolvimento e qualidade de mudas de três espécies nativas do Cerrado, em função de lâminas de irrigação e tamanhos de recipiente, três experimentos foram conduzidos em casa de vegetação, em Piracicaba, São Paulo. As espécies utilizadas foram o jatobazeiro (Hymenaea courbaril L.), a pitangueira (Eugenia uniflora L.) e o baruzeiro (Dipteryx alata Vog.), nos Experimentos I, II e III, respectivamente. Os experimentos foram instalados no delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com três repetições, em parcelas subdivididas, no esquema 2 x 5. Nas parcelas, utilizaram-se dois tamanhos de recipientes, e nas subparcelas, cinco lâminas de irrigação (20%, 40%, 60%, 80% e 100% da evapotranspiração potencial - ETp, obtida por pesagem das mudas). Cada subparcela foi constituída por oito mudas, espaçadas em 22,5 cm entre si. Os recipientes, no Experimento I, foram vasos de 3,1 L e citrovasos de 4,0 L, enquanto nos Experimentos II e III, foram utilizados vasos (2,3 L) e sacos de polietileno (2,0 L). O substrato foi constituído de uma mistura de 50% substrato comercial e 50% areia fina (v/v). Para cada 100 L da mistura, foram adicionados 15 L de vermiculita. Utilizou-se o sistema de irrigação por gotejamento, com emissores autocompensantes de 2,0 e 4,0 L h-1, em diferentes combinações para atender as lâminas. As irrigações foram realizadas diariamente. Durante o período experimental, foram registrados em datalogger, a temperatura, a umidade relativa e a radiação solar global, e em tanque Classe A, a evaporação. Aos 80, 120, 160 e 200 dias após a semeadura (DAS), foram avaliados a altura, o diâmetro de caule e o número de folhas. Aos 120, 160 e 200 DAS, foram mensurados a área foliar, o comprimento do sistema radicular, as massas de matéria seca de raízes, caule, folhas e de muda, a relação das massas de matéria seca de raízes e parte aérea (MSR/MSPA) e a qualidade das mudas (Índice de Qualidade de Dickson - IQD). O coeficiente de cultivo (Kc) foi determinado em cinco fases de desenvolvimento. Lâminas de irrigação de 90,1% a 100% da ETp proporcionaram maior desenvolvimento vegetativo e IQD das mudas de H. courbaril L., até 200 dias de idade. Com relação aos recipientes, maior desenvolvimento de mudas de jatobazeiro, pitangueira e baruzeiro foi observado no citrovaso, no vaso (2,3 L) e no saco plástico, respectivamente. Mudas de pitangueira e de baruzeiro apresentaram maior desenvolvimento e IQD, na lâmina de irrigação de 100% (ausência de deficit hídrico). Maior ac úmulo de matéria seca pelo jatobazeiro e baruzeiro, foi observado de 120 a 160 DAS, e pela pitangueira, de 160 a 200 DAS. Mudas de pitangueira submetidas a deficit hídrico mais intenso, se mostraram resistentes à seca, em razão da maior relação MSR/MSPA. Nos primeiros 200 dias após semeadura, o Kc das espécies, obtido pela metodologia de Penman-Monteith apresentou os seguintes valores: 0,54 a 1,01 (H. courbaril L), 0,35 a 0,67 (E. uniflora L.) e 0,52 a 0,85 (D. alata Vog), sendo maior na fase de 160 a 200 DAS. / Aiming to evaluate the development and seedlings quality of three native plants species of the Savannah, in function of irrigation levels and container sizes, three experiments were carried in greenhouse, in Piracicaba, São Paulo. The species used were jatoba plant (Hymenaea courbaril L.), Surinam cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) and \"baru\" plant (Dipteryx alata Vog.) in the Experiments I, II and III, respectively. The experiments were installed in randomized blocks design, with three replications, in split-plot, in the scheme 2 x 5. Two sizes of containers were used in the plots, and five irrigation levels (20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% of the potential evapotranspiration - ETp, obtained by weighting of seedlings) were used in the subplots. Each subplots was constituted by eight seedlings, at the spacing 22.5 cm between themselves. The containers in the Experiment I, were pots 3.1 L and stiff plastic tube of 4.0 L, while in the Experiments II and III, pots (2.3 L) and container of polyethylene (2.0 L) were used. The substrate was constituted of 50% commercial substrate and 50% fine sand (v/v) mixture. Fifteen liters of vermiculite were added per each 100 L of that mixture. The drip irrigation system was used, with self compensating emitters at flow of 2.0 and 4.0 L h-1, in different combinations to satisfy the irrigation levels. The irrigations were accomplished daily. During the experimental period, the temperature, relative humidity and global solar radiation were recorded in data logger, and the evaporation was mensured in class A pan. The seedling height, the stem diameter and leaves number were appraised at the 80, 120, 160 and 200 days after sowing (DAS), while the leaf area, the root system length, the dry matter mass of roots, stem, leaves and seedling, the ratio between roots dry matter mass and aerial part (MSR/MSPA) and seedlings quality (Dickson Quality Index - IQD) were measured at 120, 160 and 200 DAS. The crop coefficient (Kc) was determined in five stages of the species development. Irrigation levels between 90.1% and 100% of ETp provided larger vegetative development and IQD of H courbaril L. seedlings, up to 200 days of age. Regarding the containers, larger development of the H. courbaril L., E. uniflora L. and D. alata Vog. seedlings was obtained in the stiff plastic tube, the pot (2.3 L) and the polyethylene container, respectively. E. uniflora L. and D. alata Vog. seedlings presented larger development and IQD, under the irrigation level 100% (absence of water deficit). Larger dry matter mass production of the H. courbaril L. and D. alata Vog. seedlings was observed between 120 and 160 DAS, and of the E. uniflora L., in the stage from 160 to 200 DAS. E. uniflora L. seedlings under to more intense water deficit, they presented resistance to the drought, in reason of the largest ratio MSR/MSPA. Seedlings of up to 200 days after sowing, the Kc presented the following values, by methodology of Penman-Monteith: 0.54-1.01 (H. courbaril L), 0.35-0.67 (E. uniflora L.) and 0.52-0.85 (D. alata Vog.), being larger in the stage from 160 to 200 DAS.

Double-cropping of corn (Zea mays L.) for grain following the harvest of a small grain crop has been under evaluation in Virginia as an alternative cropping strategy (Brann and Pitman, 1997). To assess the potential constraints on late planted corn imposed by insects and diseases, double-cropped corn was evaluated in field experiments in Montgomery County, Virginia from 1998 to 2000. Factors included two near-isoline hybrids (NK4640 and NK4640Bt), insecticides at planting (tefluthrin in all years, 1998-2000; and imidacloprid in 1999 and 2000), and fungicide treatments (azoxystrobin or propiconazole). Response variables included yield, moisture at harvest, grain test weight, damage by European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis), damage by corn earworm (Heliothis zea), disease progress curves for gray leaf spot Cercospora zeae-maydis), and number of plants exhibiting virus symptoms. The Bt hybrid performed significantly better than the non-Bt hybrid for yield and test weight in double-cropped corn in 1998 and 2000, but not in 1999. A spatially referenced site suitability analysis was performed for full season and double-cropped corn in Virginia using weighted abiotic factors and constraints. Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration (PET) and PET minus precipitation were used to identify areas of the state having a lower average moisture deficit during the silking months for double-cropped corn compared to full-season corn. It is concluded that double-cropped corn production is a viable option in Virginia where abiotic factors are not constraining, particularly growing season length and moisture availability during the sensitive stages of development. / Master of Science