The historical underinvestment in power infrastructure and the poor performance of power delivery has resulted in extensive and regular power shortages in Nigeria. As Nigeria aims to bridge its power supply gap, the recent deregulation of its electricity market has seen the privatisation of its generation and distribution companies. Ambitious plans have also been put in place to expand the transmission network and the total power generation capacity. However, these plans have been developed with essentially arbitrary estimates for prevailing demand levels as the network and generation limits mean actual demand cannot be measured directly due to a programme of almost constant load shedding; the managed and intermittent distribution of inadequate energy allocation from the system operator. Network expansion planning and system reliability analysis require time series demand data to assess generation adequacy and to evaluate the impact of daily and seasonal influences on the energy supply-demand balance. To facilitate such analysis this thesis describes efforts to develop a credible time series electricity demand model for Nigeria. The focus of the approach has been to develop a fundamental bottom-up model of individual households accounting for a range of dwelling characteristics, socioeconomic factors, appliance use and household activities. A householder survey was conducted to provide essential inputs to allow a portfolio of household demand models which can account for weather-dependence and other factors. A range of national and regional socioeconomic and weather datasets have been employed to create a regionally disaggregated time series demand model. The generated demand estimates are validated against metered data obtained from Nigeria. The value of the approach is highlighted by using the model to investigate the potential for future load growth as well as analyse the impact of renewable energy generation on the Nigerian grid.

This study examines the organisational architecture of megaproject meta-organisations; that is project-based organisations formed to deliver one-off, capital-intensive systems. It investigates how the organisation that promotes the megaproject - the buyer organisation - divides and allocates the scope of the development work during the delivery phase across multiple suppliers. In so doing, the buyer organisation sets organisational boundaries around its own work and that of each project supplier: effectively creating the megaproject meta- organisation architecture. We use organisation design literature as the main cognitive lens to understand the architecture of megaproject organisations. This literature posits that organisational boundaries can be understood by examining the interplay of four logics: i) Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), ii) capabilities, iii) power and iv) organisational identity. The impact of these four logics on organisational boundaries has been theorised extensively in the context of the enduring firm. Here, we seek to extend our knowledge of boundaries in megaproject organisations. Unlike the enduring firm, megaproject organisations do not operate in efficient markets, are set up to have a finite-lifespan and are highly interdependent with their environment. Megaproject organisations are also a critical form of organising addressing one of the grand challenges of our time: the provision of basic infrastructure. Yet, little is known about the architecture of megaproject organisations. To address this theoretical and empirical gap, we undertook a multiple case research. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the procurement choices for four large infrastructure assets: the London Olympics 2012, Crossrail, Thames Tideway Tunnel and Heathrow's Terminal 2. The research results in the development of an original conceptual framework that illuminates how the four complementary logics are brought to bear in the organisational design choices that determine megaproject architectures. The study contends that the organisational boundaries, which demarcate the work of each supplier, are the outcome of a reconciliation of efficiency concerns and considerations about the capabilities available in-house and in the supplier market. Importantly, this reconciliation is context-sensitive. Hence, the solution space for potential organisational architectures is constrained by considerations related to power and organisational identity. Power constraints are rooted in the interdependency of the buyer with its environment, including regulatory-political and ownership relations, as well as its bargaining position vis a vis suppliers. Organisational identity constraints relate to the buyer organisation's identity, which is both pre- given and developed through self-selection over time.

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Modern societies are fully dependent on critical infrastructures networks to support the economy, security, and prosperity. Energy infrastructure network is of paramount importance to our societies. As a pillar of the economy, it is necessary that energy infrastructure networks continue to operate safely and be resilient to provide reliable power to other critical infrastructure networks. Nonetheless, frequent large-scale blackouts in recent years have highlighted the vulnerability in the power grids, where disruptions can trigger cascading failures causing a catastrophic regional-level blackout. Such catastrophic blackouts call for a systemic risk assessment approach whereby the entire network/system is assessed against such failures considering the dynamic power flow within. However, the lack of detailed data combining both topological and functional information, and the computational resources typically required for large-scale modelling, considering also operational corrective actions, have impeded large-scale resilience studies. In this respect, the research in the present dissertation focuses on investigating, analyzing, and evaluating the vulnerability of power grid infrastructure networks in an effort to enhance their resilience. Through a Complex Network Theory (CNT) lens, the power grid robustness has been evaluated against random and targeted attacks through evaluating a family of centrality measures. The results shows that CNT models provide a quick and potential indication to identify key network components, which support regulators and operators in making informed decisions to maintain and upgrade the network, constrained by the tolerable risk and allocated financial resources. Furthermore, a dynamic Cascade Failure Model (CFM) has been employed to develop a Physical Flow-Based Model (PFBM). The CFM considers the operational corrective actions in case of failure to rebalance the supply and demand (i.e., dispatch and load shedding). The CFM was subsequently utilized to construct a grid vulnerability map function of the Link Vulnerability Index (LVI), which can be used to rank the line maintenance priority. In addition, a Node Importance Index (NII) has been developed for power substations ranking according to the resulting cascade failure size. The results from CNT and CFM approaches were compared to address the impact of considering the physical behavior of the power grid. The comparison results indicate that relying solely on CNT topology-based model could result in erroneous conclusions pertaining to the grid behavior. Moving forward, a systemic risk mitigation strategy based on the Intentional Controlled Islanding (ICI) approach has been introduced to suppress the failure propagation. The proposed mitigation strategy integrated the operation- with structure-guided strategies has shown excellent capabilities in terms of enhancing the network robustness and minimizing the possibility of catastrophic large-scale blackouts. This research demonstrates the model application on a real large-scale network with data ranging from low to high voltage. In the future, the CFM model can be integrated with other critical infrastructure network systems to establish a network-of-networks interaction model for assessing the systemic risk throughout and between multiple network layers. Understanding the interdependence between different networks will provide stakeholders with insight on enhancing resilience and support policymakers in making informed decisions pertaining to the tolerable systemic risk level to take reliable actions under abnormal conditions. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

International trade has been a staple of the world economy for centuries. In today‟s world, as the pressure of globalization takes hold, and as the role of the state recedes while the role of regions increase, the need to maximize the benefits of international trade and investment inflows becomes even more accentuated. Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in particular, has perennially been on the periphery of global trade and investments, contributing no more than 3-4%, notwithstanding SSA having proportionately much higher population and natural resource base. To improve SSA ability to be competitive in international trade as well as to multiply intra-african trade, the continent‟s leaders have long resorted to forming regional economic communities (RECs). But more than five decades of regional economic integration in SSA has produced mostly failed RECs. Yet regional integration is being touted as SSA surest bet for relevance in the global economy. Therein lies the paradox! How can an undertaking that have produced mostly failures be the self-same route out of global economic irrelevance? In this study, it is shown that the model for regional integration adopted by many SSA RECs, the linear model, also considered the Eurocentric model of regional integration, buttressed by an intergovernmental legal framework, does not suit the peculiar circumstances of the region and is the cause for the near total failure of regional integration on the continent. This research, using the ECOWAS specialized institutions as case studies – the West African Power Pool (WAPP) and the ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA) – argues for a paradigm shift in the conceptualisation of regionalism on the continent. It argues for a shift to developmental regionalism, buttressed by strong supranational legal framework. The study shows that the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, now recognises the nexus between the development of trade-related infrastructure and intra-african trade on the one hand, as well as the nexus between the development regionalism and the expansion of SSA trade with the rest of the world, on the other hand. Accordingly, the study concludes that ECOWAS institutionalization of a regional electricity market via the establishment of regional institutions of WAPP and ERERA is the new model for regional integration in SSA. / Dissertation (LLM)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / gm2015 / Centre for Human Rights / LLM / Unrestricted