The demand for water is a very specific variable determined by many factors. The thesis aims to explain how does weather condition influenced the overall character of water demand. Predictions of climate change shows that in terms of CR it can expect changes in total precipitation during the seasons, the increase in average temperatures and a change in the variability and intensity of extreme events. The analysis therefore focuses on clarifying the impact of the level of temperature and precipitation on water withdrawals from public water supply. Analysis used daily data on the collection of water from public water supply for each interested location and daily hydrological data on the level of average daily air temperature and daily rainfall.

For the water management the forecast of precipitation is an important input variable for hydrologic models. With a accurate forecast, suitable protection measures, for example dam-predischarges can be initiated on time. However, the precipitation forecast is difficult, because it has a large spatial and temporal variability. This can be seen by the large differences of predicted precipitation height of different forecasts. With a validation of predictions of the COSMO-EU-Model and the radar-based analysis data of RADOLAN a possible optimum warning time shall be found. In addition, different continous verification methods are applied. Additionally, a possible spatial influence of the orography and different general weather situations where analysed. A total of 57 days, with more than 50mm precipitationheight in 24 h were validated in the years from 2006 to 2014. The data refer to five different catchment areas of Saxony which are managed by the State Reservoir Administration of Saxony (LTV). It has been found that at 62% of the validated forecasts not enough precipitation was predicted. The closer in time forecast and precipitation event are, the better is the forecast skill. An optimal earlier forecast time cannot be found under the use of the currently available precipitation forecasts. / Für dieWasserwirtschaft ist die Niederschlagsvorhersage eine wichtige Eingangsvariable für hydrologische Modelle. Mit einer guten Vorhersage können die entsprechenden Schutzmaßnahmen wie z.B. Talsperrenvorentlastungen rechtzeitig eingeleitet werden. Jedoch ist die Vorhersage des Niederschlags schwierig, da er eine große räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität hat. Diese zeigt sich auch in der Variabilität der Niederschlagshöhe zu unterschiedlichen Vorhersageterminen. Mit einer Validierung zwischen Vorhersagen des COSMO-EU-Modells und den radargestützen Analysedaten von RADOLAN für Regenmengen in verschiedenen Talsperreneinzugsgebiet Sachsens soll untersucht werden, ob es einen optimalen Warnzeitpunkt gibt, der gekennzeichnet ist durch eine möglichst frühe gebietsgenaue Niederschlagsprognose, so dass für das Durchführen wasserwirtschaflicher Maßnahmen ausreichend Zeit verbleibt. Um dies einschätzen zu können, werden hier verschiedene kontinuierliche Gütemaße angewandt. Auch ein möglicher räumlicher Einfluss durch die Orographie und der Einfluss verschiedener Großwetterlagen wurde dabei untersucht. Es wurden insgesamt 57 Tage, an welchen mehr als 50 mm Niederschlag in 24 h fiel, in den Jahren 2006 bis 2014 validiert. Die Daten beziehen sich auf fünf Wassereinzugsgebiete Sachsens, die durch die Landestalsperrenverwaltung des Freistaates Sachsen (LTV) bewirtschaftet werden. Dabei hat sich herausgestellt, dass bei 62 % der untersuchten Vorhersagen zu wenig Niederschlag vorhergesagt wurde. Die unterschiedlichen Gütemaße zeigen das erwartete Verhalten, dass je näher der Vorhersagetermin am Ereignis liegt, desto besser das Gütemaß und somit auch die Vorhersage ist. Ein optimaler früherer Vorhersagezeitpunkt kann unter Verwendung der derzeit verfügbaren Niederschlagsprognosen nicht gefunden werden.

In seawater, drinking is a fundamental part of the osmoregulatory strategy for teleost fish, and presents a unique challenge. The intestine has an established role in osmoregulation, and its ability to effectively absorb fluid from imbibed seawater is crucial to compensating for water losses to the surrounding hyperosmotic environment. Alongside solute-linked water transport (driven by NaCl cotransport), intestinal bicarbonate (HCO3-) secretion also benefits fluid absorption directly (via apical Cl-/HCO3- exchange), and indirectly through the formation of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) thus removing the osmotic influence of Ca2+ within the gut fluid. For the European flounder (Platichthys flesus), elevated luminal Ca2+ has proven to be a specific, potent stimulator of HCO3- secretion both in vitro and in vivo where these actions are presumably modulated by an extracellular Ca2+-sensing receptor (CaR). The focus of this work was to learn more about how intestinal HCO3- secretion is regulated, the role of Ca2+, and more specifically the CaR. To achieve this, in vitro ‘gut sac’ experiments investigated how luminal Ca2+ influenced HCO3- secretion, and associated ion and fluid transport. Contrary to expectation, increasing Ca2+ from 5 to 20 mM did not stimulate HCO3- secretion. In an attempt to elucidate the role of CaCO3 precipitation in fluid absorption, and further explore the physiological implications of HCO3- secretion, the intestine was perfused in vivo with salines containing varying concentrations of Ca2+ (10, 40 and 90 mM). The production and secretion of HCO3-, in addition to CaCO3 formation increased accordingly with Ca2+, and was associated with a dramatic 25 % rise in the fraction of fluid absorbed by the gut. Additional in vitro experiments, utilising the Ussing chamber, helped establish some of the characteristics of intestinal HCO3- secretion by the euryhaline killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus), but was unresponsive to elevated mucosal Ca2+. Further attempts to potentiate the activity of the CaR, and application of the receptor agonists gadolinium (Gd3+) and neomycin, failed to produce responses consistent with the effect of Ca2+ observed previously, either in vitro or in vivo. With no evidence supporting a direct role for an extracellular, intestinal CaR in HCO3- secretion it was argued that secretion would be principally regulated by two factors, the ability of the epithelia to generate high levels of intracellular HCO3- and the rate of CaCO3 formation.

Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-27T15:03:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DANILO ERICKSEN COSTA CABRAL – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 3103151 bytes, checksum: 21c39f5e775ca2cffae4904318258171 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T15:03:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DANILO ERICKSEN COSTA CABRAL – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 3103151 bytes, checksum: 21c39f5e775ca2cffae4904318258171 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-22 / Analisou-se neste estudo a tendência anual e a média global da Água Precipitável (AP) no período de 1986 a 2016. Foram utilizados dados extraídos das reanálises do ERAInterim/ European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A partir destes dados avaliou-se a distribuição espacial da tendência de Água Precipitável. Para a análise da tendência climática aplicou-se testes estatísticos de Mann-Kendall e t de Student observandose o comportamento das séries globais. Para a variável AP, foi encontrado o valor médio de 24,4mm para todo o período, correspondendo a um volume estimado para toda a atmosfera. Os resultados apontam tendências significativas de 0,0246; 0,0121 e 0,0203 mm/ano para o HN; HS e todo o Globo, respectivamente. Foi observada uma tendência positiva para algumas áreas do globo bem como outras negativas, resultando em uma distribuição não homogênea, denotando-se uma provável tendência de aumento do vapor d’água no globo. / In this study was analyzed the annual trend and the global mean of Precipitation Water (WP) from 1986 to 2016. Data extracted from the ERA-Interim / European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis were used. From these data was evaluated the Precipitation Water tendency spatial distribution. For the analysis of the climatic trend, Mann-Kendall and t-Student statistical tests were applied, observing the behavior of the global series. For the WP variable was found the average value of 24.4 mm for the whole period, corresponding to estimated volume for the whole atmosphere. The results indicate significant trends of 0.0246, 0.0121 and 0.0203 mm /year for HN; HS and the whole Globe, respectively. A positive trend was observed for some areas of globe as well as negative values, resulting the not homogeneous distribution, denoting a probable tendency to increase water vapor in the globe.