This dissertation consists of three essays on forms of preference heterogeneity in discrete choice models. The first essay uses a model of heterogeneity conditional on observed individual-specific characteristics to tailor financial incentives to enhance weight loss program participation among target demographics. Financial incentives in weight loss programs have received attention mostly with respect to effectiveness rather than participation and representativeness. This essay examines the impact of financial incentives on participation with respect to populations vulnerable to obesity and understudied in the weight loss literature. We found significant heterogeneity across target sub-populations and suggest a strategy of offering multiple incentive designs to counter the dispersive effects of preference heterogeneity. The second essay investigates the ability of a novel elicitation format to reveal decision strategy heterogeneity. Attribute non-attendance, the behaviour of ignoring some attributes when performing a choice task, violates fundamental assumptions of the random utility model. However, self-reported attendance behaviour on dichotomous attendance scales has been shown to be unreliable. In this essay, we assess the ability of a polytomous attendance scale to ameliorate self-report unreliability. We find that the lowest point on the attendance scale corresponds best to non-attendance, attendance scales need be no longer than two or three points, and that the polytomous attendance scale had limited success in producing theoretically consistent results. The third essay explores available approaches to model different features of unobserved heterogeneity. Unobserved heterogeneity is popularly modelled using the mixed logit model, so called because it is a mixture of standard conditional logit models. Although the mixed logit model can, in theory, approximate any random utility model with an appropriate mixing distribution, there is little guidance on how to select such a distribution. This essay contributes to suggestions on distribution selection by describing the heterogeneity features which can be captured by established parametric mixing distributions and more recently introduced nonparametric mixing distributions, both of a discrete and continuous nature. We provide empirical illustrations of each feature in turn using simple mixing distributions which focus on the feature at hand. / Ph. D.

Subsidies, taxes, premiums, and eligibility for health insurance can potentially cause "marriage lock," in which couples stay married for the sake of health insurance coverage, and marriage lock may change under the Affordable Care Act. In the first two chapters, marriage lock is examined in the context of two key health insurance decisions: divorce decisions upon qualification for Medicare at age 65, and marriage and divorce decisions associated with the introduction of the Massachusetts insurance mandate and health insurance exchange market reforms in 2006. In the first chapter, using the Health and Retirement Study data, I find evidence of a 7 percentage point increase in the number of divorces upon achieving Medicare eligibility at age 65 for people with spousal insurance coverage relative to those without it. In the second chapter, using the American Community Survey data, I find that the 2006 Massachusetts healthcare reform increased incentives for marriage in the health insurance exchange market relative to control states. Specifically, the Massachusetts reform appears to have reduced the divorce rate by 0.5 percentage point and increased marriage rate by 1.4 percentage points. In the third chapter, I use data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) to explore three decisions potentially affected by the implementation of Medical Savings Accounts (MSAs). First, I find that individuals with MSAs incur 17 RMB more medical expenses per 1000 RMB increase in their MSAs balance, while I find no significant effect of after-tax income on medical expenses. Second, I study preference heterogeneity as revealed by three types of risky behaviors. I find undertaking risky investments is associated with 23% more medical expenditures, while always using a seatbelt and obeying traffic signals are associated with 16% and 22% higher medical expenditures, respectively. Finally, I find evidence suggesting that individuals become more risk adverse with MSAs than without, specifically by increasing their use of seatbelts and obeying traffic signals. These findings, using recent Chinese data, suggest that MSAs play an important role when consumers make health expenditure decisions, and that preferences involving risk and prevention also appear to be influenced by the MSA scheme.

Reflecting the growing interest from both consumers and policymakers, and building on recent developments in Willingness to Pay (WTP) methodologies, we evaluate consumer preferences for an archetypal traditional food product. Specifically we draw on stated preference data from a discrete choice experiment, considering the traditional Hungarian mangalitza salami. A WTP space specification of the generalized multinomial logit model is employed, which accounts for not only heterogeneity in preferences but also differences in the scale of the idiosyncratic error term. Results indicate that traditional food products can command a substantial premium, albeit contingent on effective quality certification, authentic product composition and effective choice of retail outlet. Promising consumer segments and policy implications are identified. (authors' abstract)

Although the application of segmentation is a topic of central importance in marketing literature and practice, managers tend to rely on intuition and on traditional segmentation techniques based on socio-demographic variables. In the airline industry, it is regarded as common sense to separate between business and economy passengers. However, the simplicity of this segmentation logic no longer matches the ever more complex and heterogeneous choices made by customers. Airline companies relying solely on flight class as the segmentation criterion may not be able to customize their product offerings and marketing policies to an appropriate degree in order to respond to the shifting importance and growing complexity of customer choice drivers, e.g. flexibility and price as a result of liberalization in the airline industry. Thus, there is a need to re-evaluate the traditional market segmentation criterion. By analyzing the stated preference data of more than 5800 airline passengers, we show that segmenting into business and leisure (a) does not sufficiently capture the preference heterogeneity among customers and (b) leads to a misunderstanding of consumer preferences. We apply latent class modeling to our data and propose an alternative segmentation approach: we profile the identified segments along behavioral and socio-demographic variables. We combine our findings with observable consumer characteristics to derive pronounced fencing mechanisms for isolating and addressing customer segments receptive for tailored product packages.

A thorough understanding of transit customers’ preferences and travel behaviour is fundamental to offering a high-quality urban transportation system. The dominant approach in transit quality literature is rooted in understanding current transit users’ preferences. However, disregarding the heterogeneity in transit customers’ desired quality yields suboptimal conclusions regarding their preferences. Therefore, an effective transit system should strive to understand the broad spectrum of transit and non-transit users’ preferences to increase transit ridership. Towards that end, this research aims at deciphering the heterogeneity associated with transit customers’ service desired quality. The research utilized a primary dataset elicited from an online survey that was part of Hamilton Street Railway (HSR) Public Engagement efforts in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. The research employed state-of-the-art discrete choice models (e.g., error components logit models, latent class choice models, nested logit models) along with multivariate statistical and spatial analysis. In this respect, this dissertation quantified and unveiled latent heterogeneity in transit customers’ preferences and its implications on their willingness to pay for service improvements through various techniques and specifications. Unlike the conventional classifications for transit customers, our research classifies transit customers into three latent segments: Direct Trip Enthusiastic (DTE), Cost-Sensitive (CS), and Real-time Information Supporter (RIS). The dissertation also investigated and further quantified the influence of subjective psychological factors in shaping transit customers’ preferences towards service attributes. For instance, environmental consciousness is found to be associated with less sensitivity to walking time while higher appreciation to at-stop real-time information provision. Furthermore, the research highlighted how the built environment and its contextual effects influence customers’ travel behaviour while accounting for variations in socioeconomic characteristics. The spatial analysis concluded that the built environment's influence is not equally efficacious over geography. Overall, this research presents a unique contribution to the knowledge of public transit research for practitioners, policymakers, and academia. / Dissertation / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

<p>The thesis consists of a summary and four papers, concerned with food consumption, behavior associated with overconsumption of food and analysis of the economic policy reforms designed to improve health.</p><p>Paper [I] estimates a hedonic price model on breakfast cereal, crisp bread and potato product data. The purpose is to examine the marginal implicit prices for food characteristics associated with health. A trade-off exists between health and taste. For instance, sugar, salt and fat are tasty but can be unhealthy if overconsumed; whereas fiber is unhealthy if underconsumed. If the marginal implicit price for sugar is negative, consumers value health over its taste. Our results are the marginal implicit price for sugar is negative for breakfast cereals and crisp bread—consumers value health over the taste of sugar. For salt, we find the opposite—a positive marginal implicit price, suggesting people value its taste over health. For fat, we find a negative marginal implicit price of fat in breakfast cereals and potato products containing salt, whereas we find a positive marginal implicit price of fat in hard bread and potato products that contain no salt. For the one healthy characteristic, fiber, we find a negative marginal implicit price in breakfast cereals and a positive implicit price in hard bread.</p><p>Paper [II] uses a general equilibrium model to derive the optimal policy if people overconsume unhealthy food due to self-control problems. Individuals lacking self-control have a preference for immediate gratification, at the expense of future health. We show the optimal policy to help individuals with self-control problems to behave rationally is a combination of subsidies for the health capital stock and the physical capital stock.</p><p>Paper [III] estimates a demand system for grain consumption based on household panel data and detailed product characteristics, and simulate the effect on grain consumption of economic policy reforms designed to encourage a healthier grain diet. Our results imply it is more cost-efficient to subsidize the fiber content than to subsidize products rich in fiber given the goal to increase the fiber intake of the average Swedish household. Our results also imply subsidies alone give rise to an increase in fiber, and to other unhealthy nutrients. Also, subsidies alone have negative effects on the budget. We therefore simulate the effect of policy reforms in which the subsidies are funded either by taxes on the content of unhealthy nutrients or by taxes on products that are overconsumed. Our results suggest that price instruments need to be substantial to change consumption. For instance, removing the VAT on products rich in fiber has little effect on consumption.</p><p>Paper [IV] explores habit persistence in breakfast cereal purchases. To perform the analysis, we use a mixed multinomial logit model, on household panel data on breakfast cereal purchases. If habit persistence in consumption is strong, short and long-run responses to policy reforms will differ. Our results are breakfast cereal purchases are strongly associated with habit persistence. Our results also imply preferences for breakfast cereals are heterogeneous over households and the strength of habit persistence is similar over educational and income groups.</p>

The thesis consists of a summary and four papers, concerned with food consumption, behavior associated with overconsumption of food and analysis of the economic policy reforms designed to improve health. Paper [I] estimates a hedonic price model on breakfast cereal, crisp bread and potato product data. The purpose is to examine the marginal implicit prices for food characteristics associated with health. A trade-off exists between health and taste. For instance, sugar, salt and fat are tasty but can be unhealthy if overconsumed; whereas fiber is unhealthy if underconsumed. If the marginal implicit price for sugar is negative, consumers value health over its taste. Our results are the marginal implicit price for sugar is negative for breakfast cereals and crisp bread—consumers value health over the taste of sugar. For salt, we find the opposite—a positive marginal implicit price, suggesting people value its taste over health. For fat, we find a negative marginal implicit price of fat in breakfast cereals and potato products containing salt, whereas we find a positive marginal implicit price of fat in hard bread and potato products that contain no salt. For the one healthy characteristic, fiber, we find a negative marginal implicit price in breakfast cereals and a positive implicit price in hard bread. Paper [II] uses a general equilibrium model to derive the optimal policy if people overconsume unhealthy food due to self-control problems. Individuals lacking self-control have a preference for immediate gratification, at the expense of future health. We show the optimal policy to help individuals with self-control problems to behave rationally is a combination of subsidies for the health capital stock and the physical capital stock. Paper [III] estimates a demand system for grain consumption based on household panel data and detailed product characteristics, and simulate the effect on grain consumption of economic policy reforms designed to encourage a healthier grain diet. Our results imply it is more cost-efficient to subsidize the fiber content than to subsidize products rich in fiber given the goal to increase the fiber intake of the average Swedish household. Our results also imply subsidies alone give rise to an increase in fiber, and to other unhealthy nutrients. Also, subsidies alone have negative effects on the budget. We therefore simulate the effect of policy reforms in which the subsidies are funded either by taxes on the content of unhealthy nutrients or by taxes on products that are overconsumed. Our results suggest that price instruments need to be substantial to change consumption. For instance, removing the VAT on products rich in fiber has little effect on consumption. Paper [IV] explores habit persistence in breakfast cereal purchases. To perform the analysis, we use a mixed multinomial logit model, on household panel data on breakfast cereal purchases. If habit persistence in consumption is strong, short and long-run responses to policy reforms will differ. Our results are breakfast cereal purchases are strongly associated with habit persistence. Our results also imply preferences for breakfast cereals are heterogeneous over households and the strength of habit persistence is similar over educational and income groups.

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New Zealand is internationally renowned for having some of the finest and most challenging trout fishing in the world. However, due to continuing development and angling pressure many fishing sites are showing signs of environmental degradation and over fishing. This trend is almost certain to continue into the future given continued population and economic growth. Understanding the determinants of site choice, preference heterogeneity and anglers’ substitution patterns is fundamentally important to fishery managers who have the difficult task of maintaining quality angling experiences on a number of fishing sites, managing angling pressure and maintaining license sales. Recent advances in simulation techniques and computational power have improved the capability of discrete choice models to reveal preference heterogeneity and complex substitution patterns among individuals. This thesis applies and evaluates a number of state-of-the-art discrete choice models to study angler site choice in New Zealand. Recreation specialisation theory is integrated into the analysis to enhance the behavioural representation of the statistical models. A suite of models is presented throughout the empirical portion of this thesis. These models demonstrate different ways and degrees of explaining preference heterogeneity as well as identifying anglers’ substitution patterns. The results show that North Canterbury anglers’ preferences vary considerably. Resource disturbances such as riparian margin erosion, reduced water visibility and declines in catch rates can cause significant declines in angler use of affected sites, and at the same time non-proportional increases in the use of unaffected sites. Recreation specialisation is found to be closely related to the types of fishing site conditions, experiences and regulations preferred by anglers. Anglers’ preference intensities for fishing site attributes, such as catch rates, vary across different types of fishing sites. This location specific preference heterogeneity is found to be related to specialisation. Overall, the empirical findings indicate that conventional approaches to modelling angler site choice which do not incorporate a strong understanding of angler preference heterogeneity can lead to poorly representative models and suboptimal management and policy outcomes.

Managed lane refers to the application of various operational and design strategies on highway facilities to improve system efficiency and mobility by proactively allocating traffic capacity to different lanes. One of the key elements to understand the behavior changes and underlying causalities in user responses to managed lanes is to examine the value of time (VOT) and value of reliability (VOR). The breadth of this dissertation encompasses two major dimensions of VOT and VOR estimation – distributions or variations across different users and under different circumstances; and influences of unobserved attitudinal characteristics on roadway pricing valuation. To understand travelers’ choice behavior regarding the usage of managed lanes, combined revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data were used in this study. Mixed logit modeling was applied as the state of the art methodology to capture heterogeneity in users’ choice behavior. The model revealed an average value of $10.68 per hour for VOT and $13.91 per hour for VOR, which are reasonable considering the average household income in the region, and are well within the ranges found in the literature. In terms of user heterogeneity, the mixed logit model was further enhanced by adding interaction effects of variables, which helped recognize and quantify potential sources of heterogeneity in user sensitivities to time, reliability, and cost. The findings indicated that travelers were likely to exhibit higher willingness to pay when they were female, younger (years), older (>54 years), had higher income (> 50 K), driving alone, and traveled on weekdays. Attitudinal aspects are rarely incorporated into roadway pricing analysis. The study herein presents an effort to explore the role of attitudinal factors in drivers’ propensity toward using managed lanes. Model results boded for a significant contribution of attitudinal parameters in the model, both in terms of coefficients and model performance. This study provides a robust approach to quantify user heterogeneity in VOT and VOR and capture the impacts of attitudinal attributes in pricing valuation. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding on what attributes lead to higher or lower VOT and VOR and to what extent.