O mercado do milho no Brasil tem demonstrado algumas mudanças nos últimos anos aumentando sua importância no agronegócio. Por esse motivo, tem sido maior a necessidade de estudo de suas características. O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados regionais dessa commodity no Brasil a nível de produtor, com foco nos estados da região Sul e Centro-Oeste, devido à sua importância para a produção nacional. Além disso, também foi buscado analisar como os preços dos estados analisados reagem ao preço cotado na bolsa de valores para saber qual sua relação com o mercado externo. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi: teste de raiz unitária; teste de cointegração; vetor de correção de erro; teste de causalidade de Granger e teste de impulso-resposta. Os resultados do teste de cointegração indicam que há transmissão de preços entre todos os estados analisados, bem como os estados respondem a oscilações de preços do mercado externo a longo prazo. O fato de existir cointegração entre os estados é condição suficiente para se afirmar que existe relação linear de equilíbrio para a qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos da Lei do Preço Único e a integração. Todos os estados apresentaram resposta significativa a mudanças de preços no estado de Santa Catarina pelo vetor de correção de erro (VEC), mostrando que esse estado tem forte influência na formação de preços dos estados das duas regiões analisadas. No curto prazo foi observado que os estados de Mato Grosso e Rio Grande do Sul não recebem influência direta das oscilações de preços dos outros mercados, enquanto os estados de Paraná, Santa Catarina e Goiás parecem ser interdependentes a curto prazo, pois apresentam relativa correlação. Além disso, a função impulso resposta demonstra também que um impulso nos preços do estado de Santa Catarina gera resposta significativa nos preços dos outros estados de forma geral, e um impulso no preço do estado de Goiás também gera uma reação forte no preço do estado do Mato Grosso. / The corn market in Brazil has shown some changes in recent years increasing its importance in agribusiness. For this reason has increased the need for more studies related to this market’s characteristics . The objective of this dissertation is to check how is the price transmission between regional markets in Brazil at producer level for this commodity, focusing on states of the South and Midwest of the country, because of its importance to the national production. Furthermore, it was also sought to analyze how the prices of the analyzed states react to the price quoted on the stock market, looking for understanding how is its relationship with the external market. The research method used was: the unit root test , cointegration test , vector error correction; Granger causality test and impulse response test. The result of the cointegration test indicates that there is price transmission between all the states analyzed as well as states respond to price fluctuations on the stock market in the long run . The existence of cointegration between the states is sufficient to say that there is a linear equilibrium relationship to which converges the sistem, validating the assumptions of the Law of One Price and the integration condition. All states showed significant responses to price changes in the state of Santa Catarina by the vector error correction ( VEC ) , showing that this state has a strong influence on the pricing of the states on the two regions. In the short term it was observed that the states of Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul receive no direct influence from the prices of other markets, while the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Goiás seem to be interdependent in the short term because they present a correlation. As well, the impulse response function also shows that a surge in prices in the state of Santa Catarina generates a significant response in prices of other states in general, and a boost in the price of Goias also generates a strong reaction in the price of Mato Grosso.

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The lumber industry in the South is an important sector, and has connections with many other key industries. The dynamics of the southern lumber market and its linkage with other related markets can be examined by the price transmissions. The first part of this study investigates vertical price transmission traced back to delivered sawlog market and stumpage market, and arrives at the conclusion that the supply chain is generally efficient with positive asymmetric transmission involved in one product. The second part explores the relationship between markets of the South and Pacific Northwest and concludes that the two markets are more balanced with each other after various demand and supply shocks with two regime switching models. This research will benefit market participants and policy makers to update their knowledge and obtain efficient information before decision making.

Diese Dissertation beschreibt Marktverzerrungen auf mehreren Ebenen, die entweder aufgrund von Fehlfunktionen oder durch Interventionen politischer Art entstehen. Die Fehlfunktionen schließen einerseits Märkte mit imperfektem Wettbewerb, und andererseits Versagen auf anderweitig vollkommenen Märkten ein. Die Erstgenannten können durch eine starke Konzentration (beispielsweise aufgrund der geringen Größe des Marktes) verursacht werden, durch Ein- oder Austrittsbarrieren, heterogene Güter und Informationsasymmetrien. Zu den Gründen für Marktversagen gehören die Existenz von Externalitäten, Störungen auf anderen, verlinkten Märkten (z.B. die von Kleinbauern erfahrenen Kreditbeschränkungen), hohe Transaktionskosten, öffentliche Güter und Staatsversagen. Abhängig von den Definitionen unterschiedlicher Autoren kann die ungleiche Verteilung von Einkommen oder Vermögen auch als Versagen des Marktmechanismus verstanden werden. In dem Abschnitt dieser Arbeit der sich Marktstörungen widmet wurde der Fokus auf die Nachfrageseite gesetzt, wo die Marktkonzentration mit der Existenz von Monopsonen, Oligopsonen oder Monopsonistischem Wettbewerb assoziiert wird. Die zweite Klasse von Verzerrungen auf den hier betrachteten Märkten wird durch politische Interventionen verursacht. Diese können verschiedene Beweggründe haben, wie die Korrektur der oben beschriebenen Marktstörungen oder Umverteilung zwischen Bevölkerungsgruppen. Das Instrument, das jeweils eingesetzt wird, um Marktversagen zu korrigieren, hängt von der beobachteten Störung ab. Wenn externe Effekte vorhanden sind, kann beispielsweise eine Steuer (Subvention) angewendet werden, um die externen Kosten (Nutzen) zu internalisieren. Umverteilung kann ebenfalls auf verschiedene Arten erreicht werden, beispielsweise durch die Direktzahlungen auf der Ebene der einzelnen Betriebe welche die europäischen Landwirte unterstützen. Um die Ergebnisse von Mikro- und Makroperspektive systematisch zu kombinieren wird die Dimension der Skalen in den theoretischen Rahmen eingeführt. Dies ist notwendig, da sowohl die Auswirkungen von Mikroprozessen auf größere Zusammenhänge, als auch der Einfluss von Makroprozessen auf das Mikroniveau nicht immer offensichtlich sind. Dieser Rahmen wurde auf a) den lokalen Kautschukmarkt in Jambi, Indonesien, der durch starke Nachfragemarktmacht auf allen Ebenen gekennzeichnet ist und b) den europäischen Markt für Zucker angewandt, der stark reguliert ist. Kapitel zwei und drei liefern eine Analyse der Fehlfunktionen innerhalb des indonesischen Kautschukmarkts, von denen sich Kapitel zwei mit einer Mikro- und Kapitel drei mit der Mesoebene befasst. Die Analyse auf Mikroniveau zeigt, dass Kleinhändler von Gummi in Jambi Marktmacht ausüben. Der Preis, den sie ihren Lieferantinnen und Lieferanten bezahlen liegt deutlich unter den Wertgrenzprodukten dieses Inputs. Diese Marktmacht ist größer in abgelegenen Regionen und schwächer mit zunehmender Marktgröße. Auch auf dem größeren Maßstab der verarbeitenden Industrie existiert Marktmacht in beträchtlichem Umfang. Die Fabriken betreiben asymmetrische Preistransmission, was bedeutet, dass Preisänderungen auf dem Weltmarkt schneller auf die Inputpreise übertragen werden wenn der Weltmarktpreis sinkt als in Zeiten von Preissteigerungen. Die asymmetrische Übertragung der Preise allein führt zu einer jährlichen Umverteilung von rund drei Millionen US-Dollar in Jambi. Es lässt sich davon ausgehen, dass die gesamte Umverteilung aufgrund von Marktmacht deutlich größer ist, was aber mit den verfügbaren Daten nicht beurteilt werden kann. Das vierte Kapitel untersucht die Auswirkungen von politischen Interventionen auf der Mesoebene. Der Schwerpunkt der Analyse liegt auf den Ergebnissen einer Marktintervention auf Drittländer, nämlich die Senkung des Interventionspreises auf dem europäischen Zuckermarkt. Diese Preissenkung war von den Auswirkungen der bisherigen Politik, sowie Veränderungen des institutionellen Rahmens, in dem die gemeinsame Marktorganisation für Zucker eingebettet ist, motiviert. Dies sind die Einführung des ‚Everything But Arms‘ Abkommens, sowie Verpflichtungen die sich aus den multilateralen Verhandlungen im Rahmen der Welthandelsorganisation ergaben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Afrikanischen, Karibischen und Pazifischen Staaten in der Tat negativ beeinflusst worden sind, das heißt dass die Erosion von Präferenzen stattgefunden hat. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit sind für künftige Entscheidungen darüber, ob und wie auf den Agrarmärkten interveniert werden soll, relevant. Die entscheidenden Fragen bestehen darin, wann zu intervenieren ist, und durch welche Maßnahme.

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Thesis (M.Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics) --University of Limpopo, 2013 / The Limpopo Province is home to South Africa’s major tomato producer, who is also the largest producer of the commodity in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless of its importance in the tomato industry of the country, there are few studies analysing the mechanism through which prices of tomatoes are determined and transmitted from the farm gate in Limpopo to the various provincial, local and international markets. This study attempts to fill the knowledge gap on the performance of Limpopo Province’s tomato markets by examining vertical price linkages amongst successive marketing levels. With the aid of both surveys and document analysis, daily tomato prices were collected at three levels that reflect the marketing chain of Limpopo produced tomatoes. Through marketing margin analysis, it was established that the farmers’ portion of the consumer’s Rand is low. About 85.1% of the consumer’s Rand goes to pay for marketing margins. Granger causality tests show that both the wholesale and retail prices are caused by farm gate prices, whereas an independent causal relationship was found between wholesale prices and retail prices. The study also found a long run cointegration relationship between farm gate prices and retail level prices, and not the same for the relationship between farm gate and wholesale prices. Furthermore, it was found that retailers are quick to react to increases in farm gate prices and slow in adjusting to price decreases. On the other hand, wholesale prices were found to be symmetrical to farm gate prices. These results suggest that the transmission of price information is more efficient between the farm and wholesale markets than between the farm and retail markets. Nonetheless, there is scope for increasing efficiency of tomato marketing in the province. Key words: Price transmission, marketing margins, vertical price linkage, market dominance, tomato markets, Limpopo Province

This paper summarises a series of Asia-Pacific based studies that explore three distinct central and commercial banking regimes, looking at interest rate pricing and transmission. This research is significant for several reasons: (a) the relative lack of research into pricing behaviour and price transmission in Asia-Pacific, (b) the development of new tools to analyse non linear cointegration and hence price asymmetry, (c) economic and financial convergence is now a topic of regional importance, (d) transmission and price behaviour evidence has not been documented in the context of the different central bank policy signaling regimes evident in the region, (e) the banking markets in the region are clearly in the midst of a consolidation and globalisation phase. This follows rapidly from the 1997/98 financial-crisis, (f) there is little evidence in the region of how advances in risk management practice have impacted the price behaviour of the banking industry. A number of findings have been documented. Regional financial integration appears already under way, evidenced by both regional banking mergers and regional consistency in the timing of structural breaks during the Asian crisis. Transmission of policy rates to wholesale rates appears rapid in the case of Hong Kong (HK) and New Zealand (NZ), but slow in the case of Singapore with its currency-basket regime. Generally, there is little evidence of asymmetric interest rate pricing practices in Singapore and HK, whilst asymmetry noted for NZ appears to be largely a function of how banks reacted in a significant decline in rates over a long period prior to the implementation of the Official Cash Rate. / Professional Doctorate

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 ricardobatistaturma2004.pdf.jpg: 18578 bytes, checksum: 96fa0f28f747c09c32499246de94c76a (MD5) ricardobatistaturma2004.pdf: 593463 bytes, checksum: bd5382efd048a900c429e3479ba69a17 (MD5) ricardobatistaturma2004.pdf.txt: 103266 bytes, checksum: c06c3774e579eaee78299eb65a5ee77c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-09-05T00:00:00Z / The main purpose of this work is to characterize competition in the fluid milk market (long-shelf and pasteurized milk) in São Paulo considering evidences from retail price movements and market margins. It was applied the model proposed by Houck (1977) including the changes latter suggested by Carman and Sexton (2005). This approach separates the explanatory variables between price increases and price decreases paid to milk producers. This analysis allows to compare the different lags movements between prices increases and decreases and to study agents’ pricing strategies. Data ranges from December 1999 to December 2005, including milk retail price (source FIPE) and milk producer price (source CEPEA/USP). It is possible to conclude that competition in the long shelf market is different from the competition in the pasteurized milk market. Whereas in the long shelf market competition is closer to the perfect competitive market, the pasteurized market is far from competitive. To better understand these differences, it was considered the geographical relevant market and the retail area influence. The results allow some inferences for sector analysis and for public policies concerning the milk chain. The huge increase in the long shelf sales, when it has taken a major share in the fluid milk market, it has brought a higher competition in the processing and distribution milk industry, as long as a faster decrease price transmission to the consumer level. However, the mark-up pricing strategy on the retail level, as observed at the long shelf milk, reveals that at processor and at distribution level the industry has some market power. As a consequence price increases movements are higher transmitted at absolute level to the consumer marke. / O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar o padrão de concorrência no mercado de leite fluido (longa vida e pasteurizado) na cidade de São Paulo a partir de evidências sobre os movimentos de preços no varejo e do comportamento das margens de mercado. Utilizou-se o modelo originalmente proposto por Houck (1977) acrescido das observações feitas por Carman e Sexton (2005). Essa abordagem separa as variáveis explicativas entre aumentos e diminuições de preços pagos ao produtor. Além de maior clareza na sua estrutura, essa construção permite comparar a defasagem entre esses dois movimentos e estudar a estratégia de preços dos agentes a partir das margens dos intermediários. O período analisado foi de dezembro de 1999 à dezembro de 2005, com dados de preços ao consumidor da FIPE e dados de preços ao produtor da CEPEA/ USP. Identificou-se que o padrão de concorrência do leite longa vida é bastante diverso do encontrado para o leite pasteurizado. Enquanto para o longa vida o padrão de concorrência é mais próximo do modelo competitivo, para o leite pasteurizado o padrão encontrado foi de pouca concorrência. Para compreender essas diferenças, foi discutido o aspecto locacional do varejo e a importância do mercado relevante geográfico. Os resultados permitem algumas inferências para análises setoriais e de políticas públicas voltadas à produção leiteira. O vertiginoso crescimento das vendas de leite longa vida, absorvendo grande parte do mercado antes abastecido pelo leite pasteurizado, trouxe maior concorrência nos segmentos de indústria e distribuição, assim como maior velocidade de transmissão de preços ao longo da cadeia produtiva. Entretanto, a precificação com markups com percentual fixo, observada no leite longa vida, indica que indústria e distribuição gozam de algum poder de mercado e que variações de custo da matéria-prima são repassadas mais que proporcionalmente, em termos absolutos, ao consumidor final.

Submitted by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2017-03-02T17:39:44Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aline Carvalho de Castro - 2017.pdf: 1645515 bytes, checksum: 74d747a3d5ffe1e777ef3947d34a5855 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-03-03T11:26:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aline Carvalho de Castro - 2017.pdf: 1645515 bytes, checksum: 74d747a3d5ffe1e777ef3947d34a5855 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-03T11:26:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aline Carvalho de Castro - 2017.pdf: 1645515 bytes, checksum: 74d747a3d5ffe1e777ef3947d34a5855 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-20 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / The aim of this work is to study São Paulo pork marketing at levels of producer, wholesale and retail. In order to reach the objective was studied marketing margin, price transmission analysis and asymmetric price transmission test. The marketing margins study showed that retail is the market level that holds most of the sector's margins, averaging 56% over the analyzed period, while the wholesale margin and the producer share are on average 8% and 36% respectively. Regarding the analysis of price transmission, the SVEC model indicated that 1% producer’s prices variation, turn to 0,74% wholesale price’s variation, while 1% wholesale’s prices variation repercussion the retail price in 0,5%. Therefore, prices changes are not completely transmitted to the next stage. Production’s stage is most susceptible to adjustment along the chain, while retail is the most influencer to other stages prices. Result of the asymmetric error correction model (ECM) shows that price transmission farmer to retail is asymmetric. Indicating that increases and decreases in producer prices are not transmitted in the same path by retailers. Such evidence can be explained by high marketing margins at retailer stage, participation in large retail chains that have market power, access to information by being in direct contact with consumers and a high degree organization. Even not producing and not having the product, they are agents whose negotiate through contracts, which incur in less risk. / O presente trabalho teve como objetivo principal estudar sobre a comercialização de carne suína no estado de São Paulo entre os níveis de mercado do produtor, atacado e varejo. Para atingir o objetivo proposto foi realizado o estudo das margens de comercialização, análise de transmissão depreços e testes de assimetria. A metodologia usada foi baseada na econometria de séries temporais: teste de raiz unitária, teste de cointegração, Vetor Auto Regressivo com Correção de Erro e Identificação de Bernanke (SVEC), funções de impulso resposta e decomposição histórica da variância. O estudo das margens de comercialização mostrou que o varejo é o nível de mercado que detêm a maior parte das margens do setor, em média 56% ao longo do período analisado, enquanto a margem do atacado e a parcela do produtor são em média 8% e 36% respectivamente. Em relação à análise de transmissão de preços o modelo SVEC indicou que a variação de 1% no preço recebido pelo produtor varia o preço no atacado em 0,74% e, a variação de 1% no preço no nível do atacado altera o preço no varejo em 0,5%, indicando que as variações nos preços não são repassadas completamente para o próximo nível. O nível do produtor é o mais suscetível às mudanças ao longo da cadeia, enquanto o varejo é o nível que mais influencia os preços nos demais níveis. Os resultados do modelo de correção de erro (ECM) para assimetria apontaram que a transmissão de preços do produtor para o varejo se dá de forma assimétrica, indicando que os acréscimos e decréscimos nos preços do produtor não são transmitidos da mesma forma pelos varejistas. Tal evidência pode ser explicada pelas altas margens de comercialização verificadas no nível varejista, participação em grandes redes varejistas que apresentam poder de mercado, acesso à informação por estarem em contato direto com os consumidores e alto grau de organização. Mesmo não produzindo e sem deter o produto são agentes que negociam por meio de contratos e devido a isso incorrem em menor risco.

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