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The rapid growth of gasoline consumption in the USA for the last decades brings much concern to scientists and politicians. Therefore many researchers investigated the influence of the main factors that have an impact on gasoline demand. In our study we tried to estimate gasoline demand in the USA, using national time series data for the period 1984-2010. Gasoline demand function considered in this paper includes price, income, fuel efficiency and gasoline consumption in previous year, as the main explanatory variables. The model is estimated using simultaneous equations and cointegration and error correction model (ECM). The results of both methods show a significant price and income effect on gasoline demand. The price is found inelastic and its impact on gasoline demand is very small, however when we correct for endogeneity of price variable, we obtain higher price elasticity. The results on income elasticities obtained from two methods are dubious, since the two methods gave us the different results. In whole, an income raise will lead to an increase of consumption, gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short-run, while in the long-run it is found to be elastic according to 2SLS method, while the results of cointegration method indicate that gasoline response to income changes is higher in the short-run than in the long-run. Lag of error term suggests that around 57% of adjustment between short-run and long-run occurs during the first year.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lincoln Diogo Lima.pdf: 1438283 bytes, checksum: 2bfc9e1f29112f1bb26c5289a9dad140 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-22 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation aims at analyzing empirically, by means of estimates of price and income elasticities, the behavior of the trade balance between Brazil and the USA, between january 1990 and october 2011. The theoretical approaches of Elasticities and Absorption provide the theoretical relations for determinants of trade balance, allowing the construction of a workable structure for empirical research. Empirical studies on the subject shows that, recently, the form of data aggregation and development of new econometric methods, considered by many researchers more appropriate for variables that are not sure about its exogeneity, drove the emergence of new work on the trade balance. The methodology used is the technique of Johansen s multivariate cointegration and vector autoregressive models (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC). It was concluded that the real exchange variables, brazilian income, income U.S., trade balance bilateral Brazil-United States has a long term relationship and expected signs, as economic theory postules, and income elasticities, especially in the U.S, are elastic and more important than the elasticity of the real exchange (inelastic) to explain the trade balance in the long run between the two countries. This indicates that to occur a reversal in the pattern of deficit trade balances of the last three years, the slowdown in income growth in Brazil and / or the resumption of US income growth is more important than a devaluation. Nevertheless, the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied and the J curve phenomenon not / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal analisar empiricamente, por meio das estimativas das elasticidades preço e renda, o comportamento do saldo da balança comercial entre Brasil e EUA, entre janeiro de 1990 e de outubro 2011. As abordagens teóricas das Elasticidades e da Absorção fornecem as relações teóricas para os determinantes do saldo comercial, permitindo a construção de uma estrutura funcional para a investigação empírica. Os trabalhos empíricos sobre o assunto demonstram que, recentemente, a forma de agregação dos dados e o desenvolvimento de novos métodos econométricos, considerados por muitos pesquisadores mais apropriados para variáveis em que não se tem certeza sobre a sua exogeneidade, impulsionaram o surgimento de novos trabalhos sobre o saldo da balança comercial. A metodologia utilizada é a técnica de cointegração multivariada de Johansen e os modelos de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) e de vetores de correção de erros (VEC). Concluiu-se que as variáveis câmbio real, renda brasileira, renda americana e saldo comercial bilateral Brasil-EUA mantêm uma relação de longo prazo e sinais esperados, como postula a teoria econômica, e as elasticidades rendas, sobretudo a americana, são elásticas e mais importantes do que a elasticidade do câmbio real (inelástico) para explicar o saldo comercial no longo prazo entre esses dois países. Isso indica que, para que haja uma reversão do padrão de saldos deficitários dos últimos três anos, a redução do ritmo de crescimento da renda brasileira e/ou a retomada do crescimento da renda americana é mais importante do que uma desvalorização cambial. Não obstante, a condição Marshall-Lerner foi satisfeita e o fenômeno da Curva J não