Esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento de determinação de preços na cidade de São Paulo. São analisadas mais de seis milhões de cotações do índice de preços ao consumidor da FIPE. Os principais resultados são: (i) a freqüência média de mudança dos preços é de 32,35% ao mês; (ii) os preços duram em média 2,56 meses; (iii) há grande heterogeneidade entre produtos quanto ao comportamento de mudança dos preços; (iv) 40% das mudanças de preço são para baixo; (v) as mudanças de preço possuem magnitude considerável; (vi) a freqüência de mudança dos preços exibe padrões sazonais em alguns grupos; (vii) a freqüência de mudança dos preços respondeu às incertezas eleitorais de 2002 em alguns grupos; (viii) as funções de risco comum são decrescentes e apresentam picos na duração correspondente a doze meses para alguns subgrupos, e (ix) o risco de mudança dos preços responde ao índice inflacionário para aproximadamente 70% dos subgrupos. / This research investigates the price-setting behavior in São Paulo city. We analyze more than six millions of consumer price index quotes produced by FIPE. The main results are: (i) the average frequency of price change is 32,35% per month; (ii) the prices remain unchanged on average for 2,56 months; (iii) there is a large degree of product heterogeneity related to the behavior of price change; (iv) 40% of price changes are price decreases; (v) the magnitude of price changes is large; (vi) the frequency of price change exhibits seasonal patterns for some groups; (vii) for some groups the frequency of price change was affected by 2002 elections; (viii) the baseline hazard functions are downward-sloping with 12 month spikes for some subgroups, and (ix) the hazard of price change responds to inflation for almost 70% of the subgroups.

Esta pesquisa foi motivada pela necessidade de desenvolvimento de uma metodologia para elaboração de índices de preços para os fretes de cargas agroindustriais no Brasil. O estudo das principais fórmulas utilizadas na elaboração dos índices culminou com a apresentação de um ranking segundo sua superioridade no atendimento às aproximações. Concluiu-se que os índices de Fisher e Walsh são aqueles capazes de atender ao maior número de preceitos lógicos, estatísticos e econômicos. Em seguida surgem os índices geométricos de Vartia, Törnqvist e Theil. Os índices de Laspeyres e Paasche, apesar de apresentarem algumas sérias limitações, acabam sendo amplamente utilizados na prática devido à fácil operacionalização. A pesquisa sobre os índices existentes para o transporte ratifica a idéia de que o Índice de Laspeyres é o mais utilizado. Essa análise ainda mostrou que os índices geralmente são elaborados com rotas bem definidas, para modais e tipo de carga bem definidos. A presente pesquisa apresentou um estudo de caso objetivando avaliar as variações nos procedimentos possíveis para a elaboração dos índices. A utilização de um estudo específico é justificada pela necessidade de se avaliar empiricamente os resultados obtidos a partir de índices distintos. Nesse sentido, foi escolhido o transporte rodoviário da soja a granel no Brasil. Foram realizados quatro tratamentos. Os tratamentos 1 e 4 mostraram-se mais adequados para a obtenção de um índice para o nível geral de frete. O primeiro, entretanto, apresenta baixa capacidade em fornecer informações mais desagregadas (sub-índices), uma vez que apresenta apenas agrupamento por faixas de distância. O quarto tratamento, por utilizar equações do preço em função da distância, deve ser considerado com ressalvas no fornecimento de sub-índices específicos. A principal vantagem que se espera desse tratamento é o conhecimento do nível geral dos preços sem perda de informações. Esse tratamento, sob o ponto de vista das aproximações, parece bastante razoável: atende à maior parte dos testes axiomáticos, está baseado em fundamentos estatísticos sólidos e utiliza uma função econômica que, estimada, fornece uma relação entre preço e quantidade. Os tratamentos 2 e 3, por sua vez, procuraram, por meio da desagregação, dispor de uma maior riqueza de informações, apresentando sub-índices por faixas de distância e regiões de origem e destino. Contudo, essa vantagem implica um esforço significativamente maior no processo de amostragem. A principal conseqüência de se trabalhar com informações incompletas é a ocorrência de sérias distorções (vieses) nos resultados finais.Em termos de informações para ponderação, foram testadas duas possibilidades: uma através da utilização da própria amostra (a distância percorrida), outra com o uso de informações exógenas (no caso, de uma matriz origem-destino que foi construída para esse fim). Recomenda-se a utilização de matrizes origem-destino, baseando-se no argumento de que isso diminuiria a responsabilidade sobre o processo amostral que, além dos preços, deveria também abranger as quantidades movimentadas. A realização da pesquisa permitiu a obtenção da variação acumulada no nível geral de preços para o transporte rodoviário de soja no Brasil no período entre fevereiro de 1998 e março de 2002. De acordo com os resultados dos tratamentos 1 e 4, essa variação teria sido de 76%. / This research was motivated by the necessity of developing a methodology to elaborate price indexes to cargo freights for agroindustrial products in Brazil. The study on the most used mathematical formulas to elaborate indexes resulted in a ranking that considers their superiority in terms of theoretical approximations. It was concluded that Fisher and Walsh indexes are those that attend most of the logical, statistical and economic principles, followed by the geometric indexes, like Vartia, Törnqvist and Theil. Laspeyres and Paasche, in spite of their limitations, are widely used in practice. The research on the existing transportation indexes ratifies the idea that the Laspeyres is the most used. The analysis also showed that these indexes are generally calculated considering well-defined routes to specific transportation modes and cargoes. A case study was selected to evaluate variations on possible procedures to index elaboration. The utilization of a specific study is justified by the need of empirically evaluating the results to be obtained through different indexes. In view of that, it was chosen the bulk soybean hauled by road transport in Brazil. Four treatments were conducted. The treatments 1 and 4 seemed to be more suitable to calculate an index for a general price level. The first one, nevertheless, shows low capacity to supply less aggregated information, provided that has only items related to different distances groups. The fourth, which uses equations of price in function of distance, should be carefully considered when referring to sub-indexes transparency. The main advantage of this treatment is the knowledge of general price level without information loss. This treatment, under the theorical approach, looks quite reasonable: it attempts to the majority of axiomatic tests, is based on statistics foundation and uses an economic function that, when estimated, gives the relation between price and quantity. The treatments 2 and 3, in their turn, try to rank more information through disaggregation, showing sub-indexes for distances groups and origin and destination regions. On the other side, this advantage causes the need of significantly more efforts (large number of observations) in sampling process. The outcome of incomplete information is the occurrence of distortion (errors) in final results. Related to the weighting system, two possibilities were tested: using the own sample as the main source (traveled distance), or using exogenous information (in this case, from an origin-destination matrix built for this purpose). It’s recommended the employment of origin-destination matrixes, based on the argument that this would reduce the responsibility over the sampling process that, beyond the prices, should comply the volumes that were transported. As a result, it was obtained that the general price level variation of the soybean transported by road in Brazil, between February 1998 and March 2002, was 76%, considering the treatments 1 and 4.

This thesis analyzes variations in office rents in Ankara. The theoretical background of this study is related to the hedonic methodology, which is extensively applied for explaining price or rental price variations of the real property. Given this theoretical framework, hedonic regression model is utilized for the estimation of hedonic price indices by using the cross sectional data of the office market in Ankara for the year 2002. Hedonic price function is specified in the log linear functional form and is estimated with the Ordinary Least Squares technique for two models. The models include the same variables / however, Model 1 differs from Model 2 in including the location variables. The estimation results obtained from the models suggest that height and construction quality of the building act as proxies for the locational characteristics. Also, it is found from Model 1 that locational characteristics have the greatest effect on the rental prices of the office units. In order to verify this fact, Model 1 is tested against Model 2 and vice versa based on alternative tests for non-nested models. The results of non-nested tests indicate that Model 1 is preferred to Model 2. This result is important in the sense that locational characteristics are found to be significant in explaining the rental price variations. Besides location variables, the other variables related to physical attributes and lease characteristics of the office property are also evaluated from the estimation results of Model 1. From the empirical results, it is finally concluded that locational characteristics explain the spatial rent variations of the office property in Ankara to a large extent.

Housing price studies is the first step of housing market analysis. Prices are determined at the intersection point of supply and demand curves, which determine equilibrium point that represents equilibrium price and quantity level. At a point in time demand factors are more important in determining the prices because short-run supply curve is almost vertical. However, in the long run supply of housing, and its certain attributes, will increase if price premium arises in the previous periods. In most of the studies, house prices are analyzed by using hedonic price index technique, which enables us to have information about the demand side of housing sector. In the hedonic price framework, heterogeneous goods are considered as aggregations of characteristics, and implicit marginal prices for these characteristics are calculated. When &lsquo / Hedonic Price Analysis&rsquo / is applied to the housing sector, it shows us the price of each housing attribute and gives information about the preferences and willingness to pay of the people for each attribute. Therefore, at the end of such an analysis it is possible to see which attributes are valued most by house buyers in the city. The aim of this thesis is to reveal the implicit prices of housing attributes in the housing market of Ankara, for the year 2006, with the purpose of gaining more information about the demand side of the housing sector. For this purpose, hedonic pricing method is used with the data that are extracted from appraisal reports which include information about main attributes and estimated price of each dwelling unit.

The historical long-term volatility and return on investment in single-family dwellings was investigated and compared with investments in equity, bonds and T-bill markets. Total return index for equity and fixed-income security indices were obtained from available sources, of course, a proper index for measurement of long-term changes in house prices was unavailable. In an effort to measure the house price changes, a relatively homogeneous pool of houses in the downtown Toronto area was selected and its price tracked over the study period of 44 years. Inflation rate affects the return of investments in everything similarly therefore this was not considered in the calculations. Results of comparing the investment of cash in one's family home versus in other investment vehicles showed that the ratio of investment growth to its volatility for a single-family house exceeded the ratios for other investments by a large margin.

The historical long-term volatility and return on investment in single-family dwellings was investigated and compared with investments in equity, bonds and T-bill markets. Total return index for equity and fixed-income security indices were obtained from available sources, of course, a proper index for measurement of long-term changes in house prices was unavailable. In an effort to measure the house price changes, a relatively homogeneous pool of houses in the downtown Toronto area was selected and its price tracked over the study period of 44 years. Inflation rate affects the return of investments in everything similarly therefore this was not considered in the calculations. Results of comparing the investment of cash in one's family home versus in other investment vehicles showed that the ratio of investment growth to its volatility for a single-family house exceeded the ratios for other investments by a large margin.

Construction cost indices are developed to measure the degree of price variations in construction material and labor costs. However, each specific type of construction is a combination of unique set of materials and labor. As such, the degree of price variations referring to each specific type of construction shall be measured by specific price indices, in order to achieve more accurate results. In Turkey, Producer Price Index (PPI) published by State Statistics Institute is commonly used for the escalation of building costs. This study aims to compare the existing cost indices as well as new alternative cost indices in terms of their adequacy for the representation of variations in the building costs in Turkey. The developed price indices will be tested to measure their fit with the cost of building projects, will be compared with the price indices published by the Ministry of Public Works and Settlement and also State Statistics Institute, and finally the most adequate price indices among the examined ones to be used for building projects will be selected. Moreover, models representing past price movements will be developed.

[pt] Esta tese tem como objetivo a comparação entre procedimentos para dessazonalização de séries temporais. As metodologias usadas serão a de Modelos Estruturais Clássicos e Bayesianos e a metodologia padrão de dessazonalização X11 ARIMA. Os dados utilizados são as 35 séries reais de índice de preços ao consumidor - IPC para a Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, fornecidas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Pesquisa - IBGE, no período de janeiro de 1991 até dezembro de 1997. Os pacotes computacionais utilizados no decorrer do trabalho são FORECAST PRO (X11 ARIMA0, STAMP (Estruturais Clássicos) e BATS (Estruturais Bayesianos). Além disso, foram também utilizadas séries simuladas com sazonalidade, para melhor analisar os resultados desejados. / [en] The aim of this thesis is a comparisson study among three existing procedures for seasonal adjustment of time series, namely: the tradicional X11 ARIMA and those based on the structural model formulation, i.e., the classical approach of A. Harvey and the Bayesian counterpart of Harrison and Stevens. The data used are 25 real time series of Consumer Price Index for Metropolitan area from Rio de Janeiro from 1991 to 1997, supllied by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE. The computacional packages used during the thesis were SPSS and FORECAST PRO (X11 ARIMA), STAMP (structural classical approach) and BATS (structural bayesian approach). Also, simulated seasonal data were to provide a better understanding of the procedures.

The main aim of this thesis is describe and evaluate the price trend of beef in selected countries of European Union during the years 2003 - 2013. In the first part of this thesis you can find theoretical knowledge from the sphere of price or agrarian market. The practical part describes the development of price of beef in selected countries using various statistical indicators and mathematical-economic methods. The conclusion contains a description of the current situation of beef on the world market including its prediction on the basis of international institutions such as the OECD, FAO and FAPRI.

Esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento de determinação de preços na cidade de São Paulo. São analisadas mais de seis milhões de cotações do índice de preços ao consumidor da FIPE. Os principais resultados são: (i) a freqüência média de mudança dos preços é de 32,35% ao mês; (ii) os preços duram em média 2,56 meses; (iii) há grande heterogeneidade entre produtos quanto ao comportamento de mudança dos preços; (iv) 40% das mudanças de preço são para baixo; (v) as mudanças de preço possuem magnitude considerável; (vi) a freqüência de mudança dos preços exibe padrões sazonais em alguns grupos; (vii) a freqüência de mudança dos preços respondeu às incertezas eleitorais de 2002 em alguns grupos; (viii) as funções de risco comum são decrescentes e apresentam picos na duração correspondente a doze meses para alguns subgrupos, e (ix) o risco de mudança dos preços responde ao índice inflacionário para aproximadamente 70% dos subgrupos. / This research investigates the price-setting behavior in São Paulo city. We analyze more than six millions of consumer price index quotes produced by FIPE. The main results are: (i) the average frequency of price change is 32,35% per month; (ii) the prices remain unchanged on average for 2,56 months; (iii) there is a large degree of product heterogeneity related to the behavior of price change; (iv) 40% of price changes are price decreases; (v) the magnitude of price changes is large; (vi) the frequency of price change exhibits seasonal patterns for some groups; (vii) for some groups the frequency of price change was affected by 2002 elections; (viii) the baseline hazard functions are downward-sloping with 12 month spikes for some subgroups, and (ix) the hazard of price change responds to inflation for almost 70% of the subgroups.