published_or_final_version / abstract / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The Best PhD Thesis in the Faculties of Architecture, Arts, Business & Economics, Education, Law and Social Sciences (University of Hong Kong), Li Ka Shing Prize, 2006-2007. / published_or_final_version / abstract / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The purpose of this study is to investigate the daily return behavior of underlying common stocks in the period surrounding the option expiration date. A second purpose is to determine the variables that may be causing the differential capital market effect across firms. The hypothesis of a negative return effect in the expiration week followed by a positive effect in the subsequent week is tested first. It is shown that this pattern should be expected due to the enhanced opportunity for and profitability of position unwinding, arbitrage and manipulation activity as the expiration date approached. The study period covers 32 expiration periods from 1978 through 1981 and involves a sample of 138 underlying stocks. The study employs the market model for generating abnormal returns on a daily basis. The results support the hypothesis and in particular show that the most significant negative return behavior occurs on Thursday and Friday of the expiration week. The second phase of the study correlates, via a cross-sectional multiple regression model, the suggested expiration induced events of position unwinding, arbitrage and manipulation activities with the return behavior of the underlying stocks. It is hypothesized that those common stocks which exhibit the greatest negative returns in the expiration week are those stocks and related call options that are most heavily involved in position unwinding, arbitrage and manipulation activities. Trading volume in both the underlying stock and the options is suggested as a surrogate for these three activities. Therefore, volume is negatively related to underlying stock returns. Two additional explanatory variables of the expiration week returns are included in the regression model. A negative relationship is hypothesized if options are dually listed and a positive relationship if puts are traded. The results of the tests generally support these hypothesized functional relationships. The study concludes that, although significant abnormal returns and explanatory variables are found, the magnitudes are probably not large enough to profitably exploit after paying transaction and search costs. As puts trading appears to offset the market inefficiencies caused by call option trading, the concern of regulators that options trading unduly affects stock prices seems unwarranted.

The US government has been actively involved in the production and trade of agricultural products in the world market. Corn as an agricultural product has not been spared. The minimum price for corn has been set above the domestic and world market prices. Such pricing policies have naturally generated surpluses that have been traded in the world market at subsidized prices. At times, the US has used acreage control policy to help reduce the level of excess supply. Price and income subsidies also have been used to complement acreage control policy when surpluses are immense. The empirical results have shown that these interventions have impacted on the world price of corn and subsequently on the foreign exchange earnings of the competing exporting countries. However, the issue of how significant these instabilities have been still remains and is more of a normative issue. The measure of the opportunity costs of these policies has provided an idea of the size of compensation to the competing countries of Argentina and Thailand. The last part of the dissertation investigates on the possible effects of the US policies on the behavior of Argentina and Thailand. The results obtained cannot confirm nor reject the premisses of US policies' harmful impacts. Such inconclusive outcome may be tied back to the inconsistency of the trading policy setting in Argentina and Thailand. Based on economic theory, suggestions have been made regarding the establishment of international stabilization and compensatory schemes to help move the world corn economy toward a Pareto optimal production level.

This study examines the effects of educational submarkets -- schools and districts -- on house prices in the Tucson region. The supposition that homebuyers will pay more to live in a better school district or school attendance area is examined, with the quality of education measured by per-student expenditures and academic achievement. Traditional single-market modeling of the housing market finds that education submarkets have a small but significant effect on housing price. Further modeling, taking explicit account of the spatial nature of the housing market, suggests that in the single-market approach, education submarkets act as proxies for other neighborhood effects and variables omitted from the model. Incorporating the unique location coordinates of the properties and allowing marginal attribute- and location-effects to vary across geographic space in a trend surface approach produces more robust model results and allows the educational submarket effects to be isolated. The results suggest that school districts have a small but significant price effect even after a fluid price surface has been developed, but that intra-district variation remains. These price effects have some relationship with district quality as measured by academic achievement, but the housing market does not reward per-student expenditures. At the intra-district level, middle school quality does not appear to have a significant effect on housing price, at least in the Tucson Unified School District. However, the trend surface approach still proves to be a useful methodology for modeling small, local-scale variations. The use of polynomial expansion and spatial- attribute variable interactions is successful: problems of variable omission are diminished, spatially autocorrelated error terms are reduced and removed, effects of multicollinearity are minimized, and the effects of the educational submarkets may be examined in isolation.

No description available.

No description available.

The aim of this study is to analyze the price setting in the South African coffin industry which is affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Consumer behavior and decision making, producer and retailer response, as well as the overall effects that this industry may have within the realm of the South African economy is analyzed. The central focus however, is the price determination governing the supply and demand relationship, and the influence that this relationship has on the market mechanism, which is important in regulating the functioning of the South Africa coffin industry. Chapter One introduces the problem statement by highlighting the purpose of the study in light of the effects of HIV/AIDS. The link between the coffin industry and the economy is the increase in mortality rates caused by HIV/AIDS. Sub-Sahara is the worst affected global region, and within South Africa over four million people have been affected by the pandemic. The effects on the economy can be observed on several fronts for example, the weakening of South Africa’s social structure, increasing costs to the state by putting pressure on the limited medical facilities and other social institutions, reducing the skill base, reducing national economic growth rates, etc. Due to the high levels of unemployment experienced in South Africa, several problems become relevant, especially in rural areas. Such problems can be highlighted in terms of an increase in the financial burden placed on those paying for burials. This is also extended to those organizations supplying financial aid to help cover the costs, such as societies and funeral policies. Due to the low levels of income experienced by many in urban centers, this puts a great deal of pressure on government to assist in the burial of those whom are not in a position to afford the funeral costs. Due to the upward pressure on demand for coffins, prices for coffins may increase, which will be transferred onto the rural population, which characteristically experience a greater degree of low incomes, putting additional financial pressure on these people. The increased rate of burials increase the demand on limited burial space, causing costs to rise, putting additional pressure on household savings. This becomes increasingly important, as the levels of household savings in South Africa are relatively low. Chapter Two focuses on the theoretical aspects of price determination. Price setting behavior is not only a method of profit maximization, but is also an extension of marketing strategies used to generate and establish a larger share of any target market. This chapter is based on a literary survey and applies a theoretical approach to price determination, analyzing and comparing market structures. Pricing strategies, nominal and real price rigidities and modern pricing methodologies under the influence of Internet and global markets are explored. Chapter Three takes a close anthropological review of traditional South African cultures and religions, and illustrates how these traditional beliefs and religions influence the decision making of the consumer and the undertaker. Within the context of these cultural perspectives, the issue of cremation as an alternative to the burial is explored. An analysis of the consumer demand is achieved by using the data collected for the consumer and the undertaker surveys. The costs and the consumer decision making regarding burial practices and the financing thereof is highlighted. Burial policies and funeral societies are discussed, and the overall effect that they have on consumer spending patterns, the misallocation of resources as well as the negative tradeoff effects of this misallocation has on the employer, the household, the government and the overall economy. The financing of funerals is also an important issue as the high rates of unemployment and the huge social demands that it places on consumers are forcing the majority to search for funding from other sectors of the economy that already feels the strain of a global slowdown. Economically, this chapter challenges the traditional customs and the redirection of scarce resources that are been greatly misallocated into inappropriate sectors. Chapter Four investigates the influence of HIV/AIDS on the economy, and the influence that HIV/AIDS has on the South African coffin industry. This chapter highlights the spread of the HIV/AIDS virus and the influence that this virus has on society. The role woman play in the South African economy, and the effect of HIV/AIDS on the labor force. The discussion then focuses on HIV/AIDS and the workings of the coffin industry and the near perfectly competitive market structure that functions within the South African coffin industry. Pricing strategies highlighting the role of religion, HIV/AIDS and income are considered and the role of the undertaker in society. The research was predominantly based on the information generated in the undertaker and the consumer surveys as well as a literary survey. However, the undertaker does not operate independently. There are many related industries, which are discussed, and the relationship between them is highlighted. The growth of the complementary industries, similarly, must not be underestimated, as the coffin industry provides them with a springboard from which they may enter the market. Chapter Five constructs a model to show how the influence of HIV/AIDS affects the price setting behavior of coffins. Thereafter, the model introduces the concept of competition, showing how the growing rate of competition, in conjunction with HIV/AIDS, is a more suitable model in determining the influence on price setting behavior. The model is based on the Ordinary Leased Squared (OLS) method, and the model is tested on economic a priori, Statistical evaluation and econometric tests, for example, Autocorrelation, Heteroscedasticity and Multicollinearity. Using Theils Inequality Coefficient, the model is proven sound for forecasting purposes. The combination of HIV/AIDS and competition using the SIC and AIC test proves that this combination is a better-forecast model than if HIV/AIDS was used as a determinant on its own. In chapter Six, the construction, distribution and analysis of the Consumer and the Undertaker surveys are discussed. For the purpose of the study, it became obvious that within the South African coffin industry, there is a gap between available literature on the industry and what was required for the compellation of this research. A detailed discussion on the methodology, purpose, the target sample, limitations and format of the surveys is discussed. The data collected proved very useful on two fronts: Firstly it provided detailed information that was required in order to complete the study. Secondly, the data collected introduced new questions and opened new doors to further investigation. The data provided sufficient information to show the relationship between the economy and the coffin industry. In chapter Seven, the main findings of the study are highlighted by the overwhelming influence of HIV/AIDS which has affected both the nature of the market, as well as price setting behavior. However, it has led to a large degree to the misallocation of resources, that are required in other spheres of the economy. The motivation behind funeral policies is an area of concern, and requires additional research into the social and economic influence of such structures. The influence of the rapid growth of competition has a large role to play in the coffin industry. Furthermore, the traditional beliefs of the consumer need to be protected and the role of the undertaker in this regard is a major concern. The final chapter highlights areas of further research, makes note of shortcomings in the available literature and highlights the role of policy makers with respect to the South African coffin industry.

The purpose of this research was to compile data from both the consumer and business sectors of the economy in an attempt to determine whether unit price information given to the consumer by a mandatory unit price bill would be justified .