Thesis advisor: Georg Strasser / Exchange Rate Pass Through (ERPT) is the percentage change in a destination country’s import price given a percentage change in the exchange rate. A complete ERPT occurs when import price decreases by the same percentage as the depreciation of the exporting country’s currency and vice versa. In this paper I analyze ERPT in large and small open economies, and hypothesize that as destination economy size gets larger, ERPT will decrease. Reasons I provide to support this hypothesis are: the import share of exporters in destination economies, the demand elasticity that foreign exporters face, and the proportion of consumer demand to world demand that the foreign exporter faces. I find, with statistical significance, that ERPT decreases as the destination economy size increases. The main reason attributed to this inverse relationship is the import share of foreign exporters in destination economies. As import share of the foreign exporter increases, ERPT increases within those destination economies. Since foreign exporters have a higher chance of establishing a large import share in small economies than in large economies, they have a better chance of passing through exchange rate changes into destination country prices. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2011. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

O principal objetivo deste estudo foi estimar um modelo analítico que explicasse a relação entre os mercados de etanol hidratado e de gasolina C, incluindo, também, efeitos de outros fatores, como o preço de açúcar nos mercados doméstico e internacional e a renda. Por sua capacidade de captar efeitos dinâmicos, utilizou-se o Modelo de Auto-Regressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro VEC. A análise das funções de demanda dos combustíveis mostrou que o consumo de etanol responde de forma expressiva a variações contemporâneas no próprio preço e no preço da gasolina, produto substituto nesse segmento de mercado. Já com relação à demanda de gasolina C, verifica-se que suas vendas respondem menos tanto ao próprio preço como ao do etanol. De maneira geral, a análise das funções de respostas a impulsos permite verificar que os efeitos dos choques não antecipados sobre as variáveis do modelo são de curta duração, desaparecendo, na maior parte das vezes, após o terceiro mês. A renda mostrou-se importante variável explicativa tanto para o consumo de etanol hidratado quanto de gasolina C. Um choque exógeno no preço internacional de açúcar resulta em um efeito elevado no preço do produto no mercado doméstico. De outro lado, um choque no preço doméstico de açúcar tem impacto significativo no preço do etanol anidro (elasticidade acumulada de 0,57), sendo que esses produtos concorrem pela mesma matéria-prima na indústria. Como este preço, por sua vez, representa uma variável proxy para o preço do etanol hidratado no segmento produtor, pode-se afirmar que 60% das variações de preço neste segmento são transmitidas ao preço do combustível no mercado varejista. A análise da decomposição das variâncias do erro de previsão evidenciou que a variável que tem maior impacto sobre o preço do etanol hidratado combustível no varejo é o preço do etanol anidro (proxy do preço do etanol hidratado no segmento produtor). Os principais determinantes da venda de etanol hidratado no varejo são a renda, o preço do etanol hidratado combustível no varejo e o do etanol anidro no segmento produtor. Já com relação às vendas de gasolina C no varejo, o principal determinante é a renda, enquanto as demais variáveis pouco contribuem para explicar suas variações. Finalmente, a análise da previsão dentro da amostra para o preço do etanol hidratado no segmento varejista sugere que este preço assumiria um patamar mais elevado, não fosse a atual política de controle de preços dos derivados do petróleo adotada no Brasil. Nas duas últimas safras do período estudado, o preço praticado está, em média, 23,7% abaixo do previsto pelo modelo estimado neste estudo. Vale ressaltar que o modelo estimado capta o padrão médio do comportamento da série, dados os fundamentos de mercado considerados, os quais explicam pelo menos 76% das variações do preço do etanol hidratado no varejo. / The main objective of this study was to estimate an analytical model to explain the relationship between the markets of hydrated ethanol fuel and gasoline C, including effects of other factors such as sugar prices in the domestic and the International markets and income. Because of its ability to capture dynamic effects, the Auto-regression Model with Vector Error Correction VEC was used. Analysis of the demand function showed ethanol fuel consumption significantly responds to contemporary variations of its price and gasoline price, replacement product in this market segment. Regarding the demand for gasoline C, it appears that sales respond less to its price and ethanol price. In general, analysis of the response functions to impulses allows to verify that the effect of unanticipated shocks on model variables are of short duration and disappears, in most cases, after three months. Income proved to be important in ethanol and gasoline C consumption. An exogenous shock in the international sugar price results in a large effect on the product price in the domestic market. Therefore, a shock in the domestic sugar price has a significant impact on the anhydrous ethanol price (accumulated elasticity of 0.57), once these products compete for raw material in the sector. Given that this price represents a proxy variable for the hydrous ethanol price for the industry, 60% of the price in this segment is transmitted to the fuel price in the retail market. A decomposition analysis of forecast error variance showed that the variable with greater impact on the hydrated ethanol fuel price in the retail market is the anhydrous ethanol price (proxy of the hydrated ethanol price in the industry). The main determinants of hydrated ethanol sales in the retail market are the income, the hydrated ethanol fuel price and the anhydrous ethanol fuel price in the industry. Gasoline C sales in the retail market are mostly determined by income, while the other variables contribute little to explain its variations. Finally, the analysis of the in-sample forecast for the hydrated ethanol price in the retail market suggests that this price would assume a higher level, if there were not the current policy of controlling prices of petroleum derivatives adopted in Brazil. In the last two seasons of the analysis, the price was on average 23.7% below that predicted by the model estimated in this study. It is noteworthy that the estimated model captures the average standard of the series, given the market fundaments considered, which explain at least 76% of the variations in the hydrated ethanol price in the retail market.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a transmissão de preço no mercado de etanol hidratado no Estado de São Paulo. Especificamente, busca identificar a presença de assimetria de transmissão em termos de magnitude e velocidade no curto e no longo prazo em cada elo da cadeia de comercialização do biocombustível. Os resultados foram obtidos a partir do emprego da metodologia NARDL (Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) e sugerem assimetria positiva na transmissão de preços entre o elo de produção e revenda, ou seja, os aumentos de preço no produtor são repassados com mais intensidade e agilidade ao consumidor se comparados com os movimentos de queda. Ademais, a relação de bicausalidade entre a distribuidora e a revenda demonstram uma assimetria positiva de magnitude e de velocidade entre o elo da distribuição e a revenda, visto que os preços ao consumidor aumentam imediatamente quando a distribuidora eleva os valores praticados, mas as quedas demandam várias semanas para serem observadas pelo consumidor. Entre os elementos que explicam esse comportamento assimétrico estão fatores usualmente identificados pela literatura sobre o tema e aspectos intrínsecos ao mercado de etanol combustível no Brasil. / This paper aims to evaluate the price transmission in the hydrous ethanol market in the State of São Paulo. Specifically, it seeks to identify the presence of asymmetric price transmission in terms of magnitude and speed in the short and long term at each link of the ethanol suply chain. The results were obtained using the NARDL (Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) methodology which suggest a positive asymmetric price transmission between the production and the retail link, ie, producers price increases are transmitted with more intensity and faster to the consumer compared to falling movements. In addition, the relationship of bicausality between the distributor and the retailer\'s price present a positive asymmetry of magnitude and speed since the consumer prices increase immediately when the distributor raises the amounts practiced, but the falls spend several weeks to be observed by the consumer. However, among the elements that explain this asymmetric price behavior in each link of the supply chain are factors usually identified by the literature on the subject and aspects intrinsic to the fuel ethanol market in Brazil.

Los Premios Darwin son otorgados de forma póstuma a personas que han realizado un acto estúpido y han perdido la vida como consecuencia de dicho acto, por lo que parte del supuesto que el ser humano menos dotado genéticamente, no sobrevive. Para ello, se hizo una revisión bibliográfica en internet (google académico y descriptor DeCS), debido a que no se encontró información en otras fuentes. Este premio ha despertado la curiosidad de los investigadores para explicar las razones por las que los hombres se exponen más que las mujeres a situaciones peligrosas, llegando a postular la “teoría de la idiotez masculina”. / The Darwin Awards are awarded posthumously to people who have performed a stupid act and have lost their lives as a result of that act, so part of the assumption that the human less endowed genetically, does not survive. To do this, a bibliographical review was made on the internet (Google Sscholar and descriptor DeCS), because no information was found in other sources. This award has aroused the curiosity of researchers to explain the reasons why men expose themselves more than women to dangerous situations, even postulating the “male idiocy theory”.

This study examines the relationship between in ation and price dispersion during the hyperin ationary episode in Brazil. We look at micro data on price dynamics through the perspective of dispersion at the store level, building on the informational consequences of high price dispersion. Rather than focus on which theoretical framework best explains the relative price variability seen on the data, we focus on a top-down approach to the information embedded in prices: we analyze price setting behavior from the perspective of economic segments as whole and from the perspective of each seller taken individually. In the former case we seek to answer the following: do higher levels of in ation favor higher price dispersion? In the latter, we focus on the time-series properties of each of more than 150 real price trajectories in both high and low in ation periods. We provide further empirical evidence of the loss of information embedded in prices, be it deriving from greater overall dispersion or from a greater volatility in each seller\'s price trajectory relative to its peers\'. Our findings extend previous results, accounting for a higher level of in ation, a longer time span and a broader selection of items. / Este trabalho investiga a relação entre inflação e dispersão de preços durante a experiência de hiperinflação vivida no Brasil. Estudamos micro dados de preços sob a perspectiva da dispersão no nível do vendedor, buscando evidências das consequências informacionais de uma alta dispersão de preços. Ao invés de investigar qual arcabouço teórico melhor explica a variabilidade de preços relativos encontrada nos dados, focamos em uma abordagem sobre a informação incorporada nos preços que vai do geral para o particular: analisamos primeiramente a formação de preços de maneira agregada e depois sob o ponto de vista do vendedor individualmente. No primeiro caso queremos responder à seguinte pergunta: níveis maiores de inflação geram níveis maiores de dispersão de preços? No segundo caso, focamos nas características das séries temporais de mais de 150 trajetórias de preços reais tanto para o período de alta inflação quanto para o período pós-estabilização. Fornecemos evidências empíricas adicionais da diminuição do caráter informacional dos preços, resultante tanto de uma maior dispersão das distribuições de preços, quanto da maior volatilidade na trajetória individual dos preços, relativamente aos preços dos concorrentes. Nossos resultados estendem trabalhos anteriores uma vez que considera um ambiente de inflação mais alta e mais volátil, um horizonte de tempo maior e uma seleção mais ampla de produtos.

Em um ambiente globalizado e dinâmico como o atual, no qual as oportunidades surgem e as vantagens desaparecem muito rapidamente, as estratégias, que estão refletidas na Administração de Marketing, precisam ser ágeis para possibilitar adaptação e ligação entre empresa e mercado. Tais estratégias são refletidas na decisão do composto de marketing (4P\'s), do qual se destaca a variável preço, por sua relevância como elemento estratégico. As teorias de precificação apresentam pouca aplicabilidade prática, o que leva ao desenvolvimento de técnicas simplificadas que favoreçam a praticidade e aplicabilidade em larga escala. Em relação aos custos, alguns aspectos devem ser considerados, como a proporção entre custos fixos e variáveis e a estrutura de custos da organização, além da possibilidade de economias de escala e de escopo. Seja pela venda de mais produtos ou pela venda de produtos diferentes utilizando os mesmos recursos e infra-estrutura, a empresa pode incrementar seus resultados ou obter uma vantagem competitiva, uma vez que estará diluindo seus custos. Considerando o crescimento do setor de serviços e a escassez de estudos sobre esse tema para o setor, este trabalho teve como objetivo identificar a existência de economias de escala e de escopo em empresas do setor de serviços e analisar sua influência nos custos, no âmbito do processo estratégico de determinação de preços. Para atingir este objetivo, realizou-se, primeiramente, uma revisão bibliográfica abordando o conceito de estratégia, modelos de estratégia competitiva e sua interface com marketing estratégico, a determinação de preços como elemento estratégico do composto de marketing com ênfase no setor de serviços, o papel dos custos nesse processo e a discussão acerca das economias de escala e de escopo como fatores diluidores de custos. Como método para a pesquisa de campo, utilizouse o estudo de caso, tendo em vista o estágio atual da literatura sobre o tema e o problema de pesquisa. Considerando sua representatividade e o acirramento da concorrência verificado nos últimos anos, foi escolhido o setor de serviços bancários para realização do estudo. A escolha do Banco A para a realização do estudo se deu em função de sua participação relevante no mercado, além de ser visto como um banco inovador por clientes e concorrentes no mercado B2B. O estudo contemplou a estratégia corporativa, a determinação de preços, a apuração de custos, a introdução de novos produtos, bem como a existência de economias de escala e de escopo e sua influência na determinação de preços. Foi possível verificar a existência de economias de escala e de escopo na busca por uma vantagem competitiva baseada em liderança em custos ou diferenciação, o que denota grande influência de tais economias nos custos e, conseqüentemente nos preços dos produtos estudados. / In a globalized and dynamic environment such as the one we live in nowadays, where opportunities arise and advantages disappear very quickly, strategies, which are reflected in Marketing Management, must be agile in order to enable the connection between a company and the market. Such strategies are reflected in the decision of the marketing mix (4P\'s), in which stands out the price variable due to its importance as a strategic element. Pricing theories have little practical application, which leads to the development of simplified techniques in favor of practicality and applicability in a large scale. Regarding costs, some aspects should be considered such as the ratio between fixed and variable costs and cost structure of the organization, besides the possibility of economies of scale and scope. Either by selling more products or selling different products using the same resources and infrastructure, the company can improve its results or obtain a competitive advantage, since its costs will be diluted.Considering the growth of service sector and the scarcity of studies on this issue for the sector, this study aimed to identify the existence of economies of scale and scope in the services sector and analyze its influence on costs, within the strategic process of pricing. To achieve this goal, it was held a literature review addressing the concept of strategy, competitive strategy models and their interface with strategic marketing, the pricing as a strategic element of the marketing mix with emphasis on the service sector, the role of costs in this process and discussion of economies of scale and scope as extenders cost factors. As a method for field research, we used the case study, given the current state of literature on the topic and research problem. Considering its representativeness and increased competition in recent years, the banking sector was chosen for the study. Bank A was chosen for the study due to its significant participation in the market, besides being seen as an innovative bank by customers and competitors in the B2B market. The study included corporate strategy, pricing, costs, introduction of new products, as well as the existence of economies of scale and scope and its influence in determining prices. It was possible to verify the existence of economies of scale and scope in order to seek a competitive advantage based on cost leadership or differentiation, which indicates strong influence of such economies in costs and prices of the products that were studied.

This thesis studies two types of problems in financial derivatives pricing. The first type is the free boundary problem, which can be formulated as a partial differential equation (PDE) subject to a set of free boundary condition. Although the functional form of the free boundary condition is given explicitly, the location of the free boundary is unknown and can only be determined implicitly by imposing continuity conditions on the solution. Two specific problems are studied in details, namely the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and CEV American options. The second type is the multi-dimensional problem, which involves multiple correlated stochastic variables and their governing PDE. One typical problem we focus on is the valuation of basket-spread options, whose underlying asset prices are driven by correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBMs). Analytic approximate solutions are derived for each of these three problems. / For each of the two free boundary problems, we propose a parametric moving boundary to approximate the unknown free boundary, so that the original problem transforms into a moving boundary problem which can be solved analytically. The governing parameter of the moving boundary is determined by imposing the first derivative continuity condition on the solution. The analytic form of the solution allows the price and the hedging parameters to be computed very efficiently. When compared against the benchmark finite-difference method, the computational time is significantly reduced without compromising the accuracy. The multi-stage scheme further allows the approximate results to systematically converge to the benchmark results as one recasts the moving boundary into a piecewise smooth continuous function. / For the multi-dimensional problem, we generalize the Kirk (1995) approximate two-asset spread option formula to the case of multi-asset basket-spread option. Since the final formula is in closed form, all the hedging parameters can also be derived in closed form. Numerical examples demonstrate that the pricing and hedging errors are in general less than 1% relative to the benchmark prices obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation. By exploiting an explicit relationship between the option price and the underlying probability distribution, we further derive an approximate distribution function for the general basket-spread variable. It can be used to approximate the transition probability distribution of any linear combination of correlated GBMs. Finally, an implicit perturbation is applied to reduce the pricing errors by factors of up to 100. When compared against the existing methods, the basket-spread option formula coupled with the implicit perturbation turns out to be one of the most robust and accurate approximation methods. / 本論文為金融衍生產品定價的兩類問題作出了研究。第一類是自由邊界問題，它可以制定一個受制於自由邊界條件的偏微分方程式(PDE)，雖然當中自由邊界條件的函數形式是已知的，但自由邊界的位置是未知的，只能通過為實際解施加連續性條件作隱式確定。這裡為兩個具體問題進行了研究，分別是固定利率按揭合約(fixed-rate mortgages)定價和方差恆彈性模型的美式期權(CEV American options)定價。第二類是多維問題，它涉及到多個相關隨機變量及他們引申出的多維PDE。這裡為一個典型例子進行了研究，稱為籃子差異期權(basket-spread options)，其基礎資產價格由相關的幾何布朗運動驅動。我們為這三個問題提出了解析近似解。 / 對於上述的自由邊界問題，我們提出了一項參數移動邊界來近似模仿未知的自由邊界，使原來的自由邊界問題轉化為移動邊界問題，從而提出一種解析近似解。控制移動邊界的參數是通過滿足近似解的一階導數連續性條件來定。得到了解析近似解令當中的衍生產品定價和避險參數能有效快速地計算出，相比於有限差分法(finite-difference method)，精度保持了但計算時間顯著降低。再透過應用一個多階段方案，將移動邊界重鑄成一項分段光滑的連續函數，能有系統地將近似解的結果逼近有限差分法的結果。 / 對於上述的多維問題，我們從Kirk(1995)的二維差異期權(spread option)近似解定價公式推廣到多維的籃子差異期權。由於最終的定價公式是封閉形式，所有避險參數也從而得到封閉式近似解。從一些模擬例子顯示出，近似解的定價和避險參數，與通過數值積分法(numerical integration)或蒙地卡羅模擬法(Monte Carlo simulation)獲得的基準值比較，只有小於百分之一的誤差。此外，透過利用一種期權價格和相關基礎變量的概率分佈關係，我們進一步推論出一項籃子差異變量的近似解分佈函數，這可應用到任何多維幾何布朗運動的線性組合變量分佈。最後，我們提出一種隱式攝動方法，把定價誤差減少高達一百倍，跟現有的近似解定價方法相比，這是其中一種最健全和準確的籃子差異期權定價方法。 / Lau, Chun Sing = 自由邊界和多維的金融衍生產品定價問題 : 解析近似解 / 劉振聲. / Thesis Ph.D. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2014. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 174-186). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Title from PDF title page (viewed on 12, September, 2016). / Lau, Chun Sing = Zi you bian jie he duo wei de jin rong yan sheng chan pin ding jia wen ti : jie xi jin si jie / Liu Zhensheng. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only.

An important problem in mathematical finance is to develop option pricing models that are able to capture implied volatility “smile” or “skew” commonly observed in financial markets. Many existing models are based on time-homogeneous Markov processes and they often have difficulty in calibrating implied volatilities across both strikes and maturities. In this dissertation, we develop two parsimonious and analytically tractable option pricing models to evaluate VIX options and crack spread options, respectively. Our modeling approach is based on additive subordination, which is a natural generalization of classical Bochner’s subordination. Probabilistically, additive subordination corresponds to a stochastic time change with respect to an independent additive subordinator. To model the VIX dynamics, we timechange a non-affine mean-reverting 3/2 diffusion with an independent additive subordinator to capture its empirical features, such as mean reversion and jumps, as well as upward-sloping implied volatility skew in VIX options. Moreover, we develop a parsimonious and analytically tractable two-factor model for crude oil and its refined product to evaluate crack spread option, where each factor is an additive subordinate Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. This model captures key empirical features of individual commodities, such as mean-reversion and jumps, as well as of their spread. Analytical formulas for related options prices under each model are derived via an eigenfunction expansion approach. Empirical results show that our models have great flexibility in calibrating implied volatilities across strikes and maturities of each underlying with excellent performance. Our results suggest that additive subordination is a useful technique that allows one to construct a large family of jump-diffusions and/or pure jump processes with rich time- and state-dependent local characteristics, which are suited for parsimoniously reproducing empirical features with analytical tractability. / 金融數學中的一個重要問題是建立能夠捕獲金融市場普遍觀察到的隱含波動率微笑現象的期權定價模型。許多現存的模型基於時間齊次的馬爾可夫過程且這些模型一般難以同時校準具有各種執行價格和到期時間的隱含波動率。在此博士論文中，我們建立了兩個簡潔且易於分析的期權定價模型，分別用於定價VIX期權和裂變價差期權。我們的建模方法基於additivesubordination，該方法是經典的Bochner的Subordination方法的自然延伸。從概率論上講，additive subordination定義了一個關於additive subordinator的隨機時間變換。為了對VIX的動態變化建模，我們對一個具有非仿射均值回复的3/2擴散過程進行時間變換來捕獲VIX的相關性質，如均值回复和跳躍，以及VIX期權中的向上偏的隱含波動率曲線。進一步，我們對原油和其成品油創建了一個簡潔的且易於分析的俩因子模型來定價裂變價差期權，其中每一個因子都是一個additive subordinate Cox-Ingersoll-Ross過程。這個模型可以捕獲每個油品價格的關鍵屬性，如均值回复和跳躍，以及其他之間的價差。每個模型下的相應期權價格的解析公式通過特偵函數展開的方式求解得到。實證研究表明我們的模型具有較好的靈活性，在校準每個期權品種的隱含波動率曲面方面都具有非常好的表現。我們的研究結果也表明additive subordination是一個非常有用的方法。它可以用於創建一大類具有時間和狀態相依特偵的跳躍擴散或純跳過程，這些過程可用於簡便的建模一些實證特徵且便於分析。 / Li, Jing. / Thesis Ph.D. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2015. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 129-142). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Title from PDF title page (viewed on 13, September, 2016). / Detailed summary in vernacular field only.

by Lee Yiu Cho. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (leaf 47). / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.iii / ABSTRACT --- p.iv / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.v / LIST OF CHARTS --- p.vi / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE HANG SENG INDEX OPTION --- p.3 / Chapter III. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.6 / Chapter IV. --- METHODOLOGY & DATA COLLECTION --- p.9 / Methodology --- p.9 / The Black-Scholes Model --- p.9 / Data Collection --- p.11 / Data Manipulation --- p.13 / Limitation of Data --- p.14 / Chapter V. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.16 / General Trading Pattern --- p.16 / Comparison of Actual and Theoretical Premiums --- p.17 / Analysis for 2 Sub-periods --- p.19 / Correlation Between Deviations and Variables --- p.22 / The Degree of in-the-money or out-of-the-money --- p.22 / Actual Premium Level --- p.23 / Transaction Volume --- p.25 / Chapter VI. --- CONCLUSION --- p.26 / CHARTS --- p.29 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.47

by Ho King-hang. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 51-53). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENT --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.v / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vi / PREFACE --- p.vii / CHAPTER / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.4 / Macroeconomic Variables as State Variables --- p.4 / Stock Returns and Real Activity --- p.5 / Efficient Capital Markets and Real Activity --- p.5 / Innovations in Real Variables --- p.7 / Impact of Real Activity across Different States of Economy --- p.9 / Stock Returns and Money --- p.10 / The Quantity Theory of Money --- p.10 / Wealth Effect and Substitution Effect --- p.12 / "Money Supply Process: Linkage between Stock Returns, Real Activity, and Money" --- p.14 / Stock Returns and Discount Rates --- p.15 / Chapter III --- DATA AND METHODOLOGY --- p.17 / The Data --- p.17 / Statistical Properties of the Data --- p.18 / Research Methodology --- p.20 / Vector Autoregression (VAR) Analysis --- p.20 / Multiple Regression Analysis --- p.24 / Chapter IV --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.27 / Crosscorrelations --- p.27 / Stock Returns and Real Activity --- p.27 / "Stock Returns, Real Activity, and Money" --- p.28 / "Real Activity, Money, and Discount Rates" --- p.30 / Unit Root Tests --- p.31 / Specification of the VAR Model --- p.35 / Stock Returns and Real Activity --- p.35 / "Stock Returns, Real Activity, and Money" --- p.35 / "Real Activity, Money, and Discount Rates" --- p.39 / Multiple Regression Analysis --- p.43 / Chapter V --- CONCLUDING REMARKS --- p.48 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.51