Since the late 1980s, the energy sector in Great Britain has undergone some core changes in its functionality; beginning with the early 1990s privatisation, followed by an increased green ambition, and commencing a transition towards a low-carbon economy. As the British energy sector prepares itself for another major overhaul, it also puts itself at risk for not being sufficiently prepared for the consequences this transition will have on the existing generating capacity, security of supply, and the national electricity market. Upon meeting existing targets, the government of the United Kingdom risks becoming complacent, putting energy regulation to the backseat and focusing on other regulatory tasks, while introducing cuts for thriving renewable and other low-carbon energy generating technologies. The government has implemented a variety of directives, initiatives, and policies that have sometimes been criticised due to their lack of clarity and potential overlap between energy and climate change directives. The government has introduced policies that aim to provide stable short-term solutions. However, a concrete way of resolving the energy trilemma and some of the long-term objectives and more importantly ways of achieving them are yet to be developed. This work builds on analysing each low-carbon technology individually by assessing its past and current state in the British energy mix. By accounting for the changes and progress the technology underwent in its journey towards becoming a part of the energy capacity in Great Britain, its impact on the future wholesale electricity prices is studied. Research covered in this thesis presents an assessment of the existing and incoming low-carbon technologies in Great Britain and their individual and combined impact on the future of British energy economics by studying their implications for the electricity market. The methodological framework presented here uses a cost-minimisation merit order model to provide useful insights for novel methods of electricity production and conventional thermal energy generation to aid with the aftermath of potential inadequate operational and fiscal flexibility. The thesis covers a variety of scenarios differing in renewable and thermal penetration and examines the impact of interconnection, energy storage, and demand side management on the British wholesale electricity prices. The implications of increasing low-carbon capacity in the British energy mix are examined and compared to similar developments across Europe. The analysis highlights that if the optimistic scenarios in terms of green energy installation are followed, there is sufficient energy supply, which results in renewable resources helping to keep the wholesale price of electricity down. However, if the desired capacity targets are not met, the lack of available supply could result in wholesale prices going up, especially in the case of a natural gas price increase. Although initially costly, the modernisation of the British grid leads to a long-term decrease in wholesale electricity prices and provides a greater degree of security of supply and flexibility for all market participants.

Submitted by Cristiano Grimaldi (cristiano.grimaldi@petrobras.com.br) on 2014-05-05T22:17:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MEX FGV 2014_Cristiano_pós banca_v3_protegido.pdf: 2260317 bytes, checksum: b9698f6188661977e8a68e2d4452f237 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2014-05-06T13:10:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MEX FGV 2014_Cristiano_pós banca_v3_protegido.pdf: 2260317 bytes, checksum: b9698f6188661977e8a68e2d4452f237 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2014-05-07T13:18:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MEX FGV 2014_Cristiano_pós banca_v3_protegido.pdf: 2260317 bytes, checksum: b9698f6188661977e8a68e2d4452f237 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-07T13:18:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MEX FGV 2014_Cristiano_pós banca_v3_protegido.pdf: 2260317 bytes, checksum: b9698f6188661977e8a68e2d4452f237 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-27 / Decisões são tomadas de diversas formas e em todos os momentos, mas foi o francês Henry Fayol que propôs um modelo estruturado para essa tomada de decisão, definindo o papel dos dirigentes e suas responsabilidades na administração da empresa. No desenvolvimento do trabalho, foram estudados diversos modelos de processo decisório, como o modelo clássico racionalista, o modelo da racionalidade limitada, o modelo político, as coalizões envolvidas no processo, teorias de responsabilidade social corporativa, teorias de governança corporativa, entre outros. À luz destes modelos e baseado na missão da Petrobras, de ser uma empresa segura e rentável, o autor faz uma suposição e enquadra o processo decisório da empresa no modelo clássico racionalista, focado na maximização dos lucros e resultados. Devido ao tamanho da empresa e à diversidade de assuntos para a tomada de decisão, o autor foca seus estudos na área de Abastecimento da Petrobras e analisa o processo de tomada de decisão para o aumento dos preços dos combustíveis, com o objetivo de avaliar a veracidade da sua suposição. A metodologia de pesquisa é baseada em uma pesquisa bibliográfica e investigação documental para avaliar se o modelo de tomada de decisão é realmente racional, ou se existem influências ou fatores externos que levam a um novo modelo de processo decisório. Após comparar o modelo racional com os dados e realizações da empresa, o autor faz uma triangulação de métodos, incluindo uma pesquisa de campo para avaliar a percepção dos gestores e stakeholders sobre o modelo de tomada de decisão da empresa. O autor entrevista 11 funcionários da Petrobras e 10 stakeholders externos com o intuito de coletar percepções sobre o processo decisório da Cia., finalizando com uma análise qualitativa dos dados baseada na técnica de análise de conteúdo. Com os resultados da pesquisa, o autor comprova, por meio de documentos da empresa, que a Diretoria Executiva da Petrobras é a responsável pela aprovação da política de preços da Cia. Dentre os fatores de influência no processo decisório da empresa, a inflação foi a de maior destaque, mostrando o viés político na relação entre o governo e a empresa. A política de preços da Cia. continua sendo de médio e longo prazo, acarretando em prejuízos no curto prazo para a área de Abastecimento da Petrobras. Após alcançar todos os objetivos intermediários do trabalho, o autor conclui que a suposição inicial é falsa e que o processo decisório para o aumento dos preços dos combustíveis na Petrobras se aproxima muito mais dos modelos de racionalidade limitada e político, com enfoque nos stakeholders e na competitividade do que do modelo clássico racionalista. / Decisions are taken on several manners and at all times, but it was the French Henry Fayol who proposed a structured model for this decision-making process, defining the roll of directors and its responsibilities on the administration of the companies. On the development of this paper, several models of decision-making processes were analyzed, such as the rationalist classical model, the model of bounded rationality, the political model, coalitions involved in the process, theories of corporate social responsibility, corporate governance theories, among others. In the light of these models and based on Petrobras’ mission of being a safe and profitable company, the author makes an assumption and puts the decision-making process of the company on the rationalist classical model, focused on the maximization of profits and results. Due to the size of the company and the diversity of issues for the decision-making, the author focuses his studies in the Supply area of Petrobras and analyses the decision-making process for the increase of the prices of fuels, aiming at evaluating the veracity of his assumption. The research methodology is based on a bibliographical research and documents investigation in order to check if the decision-making model is really rational or if there are external influences or factors that lead to a new model of decision-making process. After comparing the rational model with data and accomplishments of the company, the author makes a connection of methods, including a field research to evaluate the perception of managers and stakeholders regarding the decision-making model of the company. The author interviews 11 employees of Petrobras and 10 external stakeholders aiming to collect perceptions on the decision-making process of the company, concluding this paper with a qualitative analysis of the data based on the content analysis technique. Using the results of the research, the author proves through documents of the company that the Executive Board of Petrobras is responsible for the approval of the prices policy of the company. Among other influence factor on the decision-making process of the company, inflation was the most remarkable one, showing the political bias on the relation between the government and the company. The prices policy of the company continues to be medium and long-term, causing losses at short-term for the Supply area of Petrobras. After reaching all mediatory objectives of this paper, the author concludes that the initial assumption is false and that the decision-making process for the increase of the prices of fuels in Petrobras resembles the models of limited rationality and policy, focused more on the stakeholders and on the competitiveness than on the rationalist classical model.