South Africa is rich in platinum group metals (PGMs) and these metals are important in providing jobs as well as investments some of which have been seen in the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE). In this country this sector has experienced some setbacks in recent times. The most notable ones are the 2008/2009 global nancial crisis and the 2012 major nationwide labour unrest. Worrisomely, these setbacks keep simmering. These events usually introduce jumps and breaks in data which changes the structure of the underlying information thereby inducing spurious long memory (long range dependence). Thus it is recommended that these two phenomena must be addressed together. Further, it is well-known that nancial returns are dominated by stylized facts. In this thesis we carried out an investigation on distributional properties of platinum returns, structural changes, long memory and stylized facts in platinum returns and volatility series. To understand the distributional properties of the returns, we used two classes of heavy tailed distributions namely the alpha-Stable distributions and generalized hyperbolic distributions. We then investigated structural changes in the platinum return series and changes in long range dependence and volatility. Using Akaike information criterion, the ARFIMA-FIAPARCH under the Student distribution was selected as the best model for platinum although the ARCH e ects were slightly signi cant, while using the Schwarz information criteria the ARFIMA-FIAPARCH under the Normal distribution. Further, ARFIMA-FIEGARCH under the skewed Student distribution and ARFIMA-HYGARCH under the Normal distribution models were able to capture the ARCH effects. The best models with respect to prediction excluded the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model and were dominated by ARFIMA-FIAPARCH model with non-Normal error distributions which indicates the importance of asymmetry and heavy tailed error distributions. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Statistics)

M.Ing. (Engineering Management) / The purpose of this dissertation was to compare the local manufacturing of liquid pumps in South Africa against the importation of pumps manufactured on the international markets as well as also investigate the capacity limitations of the local pump manufacturers; the technologies available on overseas markets (in terms of electric, solar and wind-powered liquid pumps) and comparing the technologies to those available in South Africa. Five of the leading pump manufacturers were researched in this dissertation namely: KSB; Grundfos; Howden Pumps; Sulzer Pumps Africa and Warman Pumps. South African pump manufacturers are importing most of their pumps from international markets with the primary reason being to meet demands. By comparison, South African pump manufacturers are finding it difficult to produce pumps with equivalent or lower costs than the pumps which are produced on the international markets. Pump manufacturers on international markets offer greater cost savings for South African pump manufacturers which ultimately results in financial savings and a higher yield in profits. Many international pump manufacturers use advanced technology which makes the production costs of pump components as much as twenty percent (20%) less as compared to the South African pump industry. The importation of pumps is a method used to increase the local supply of pumps as the cost of the pump, including import costs, are not as costly as actually manufacturing the pumps in South Africa. While South African pump manufacturers manufacture pumps of relatively high energy consumption and monetary costs; they also produce standard conventional pumps which are required to supply the local demand. Local pump manufacturers were approached to find out exactly how they cope with these stringent requirements by the South African markets, yet still achieve the profits in the industry to remain afloat. Various pump forms were researched specifically relating to the pumps used on the South African markets with regards to their production costs, advantages and disadvantages (wind and solar pump technologies). Standard conventional pumps are preferred on local markets by as much as fifteen percent (15%) with newer technologies (solar and wind powered pumps) being preferred on the international markets. South Africa continues to demand standard conventional pumps (electric-driven pump) although demands for newer technology is on the increase. The international market’s production lines are mature and well established which results in a lower cost of production which leads to these pumps being of more demand as compared to newer pumps which are currently the preference. Local pump manufacturers can satisfy the demand and benefit from the lower importation cost of standard conventional pumps. The preliminary results suggest that the importing of pumps from international markets aid local manufacturers in keeping up with the demand and accquiring sufficient profits. Modern technologies such as solar and wind power is a growing maket in South Africa and is becoming increasingly common. The research approach used in this study involved targeting five of the local pump manufacturers in South Africa. Each manufacturer was asked a series of questions relating to the research questions in order to draw up conclusions regarding the problem statement and hypothesis. Findings from the conducted surveys were compared to the literature which is currently published. Findings show that local pump manufacturers are dependent on imports in order to satisfy the demand for standard conventional pumps rather than manufacturing their own and the use of newer technologies are increasing in the local pump industry.

M.Phil. / Coal is today providing more than seventy-five percent of South Africa's energy requirements and will, to a large extent, remain so in the future. It is thus important to evaluate the adequacy of the country's available coal resources against expected future demand. The main objective of this study, which was done under the supervision of Prof. D. J. Kotze, was therefore to analyse the specific consumption of coal in the various consumption sectors in order to establish historical trends. The specific comsumption of coal is defined as the amount of coal used to produce a unit of final product. The factors attributing to these observed trends were determined and their future role evaluated in order to establish whether it was possible to extrapolate historical trends into the future. By means of curve fitting to the observed data and extrapolation it was possible to obtain future values of specific coal consumption for each of the sectors. These values, together with the production output forecasts for the various sectors were then used to calculate the total coal requirements for three reference years, namely, 1990, 1995 and 2000. The role of coal prices in explaining trends in specific coal consumption of various sectors was also analised separately. Information to conduct the study was obtained mainly from the various coal producers' associations as well as from individual producers and other organizations such as Escom, Sasol and Iscor, the Department of Hineral and Energy Affairs and the Hinerals Bureau. In some instances private firms and producers' associations were also consulted as well as a wide variety of literature on the subject. The principal finding of the study was that coal was substituted or was still being substituted by electricity in most final applications because of the convenience of use. Coal, however, still plays and probably will continue to play an important role in future in basic industries such as the metallurgical industry. Coal prices have not up to now played a very important role in the overall specific consumption of coal which can probably be attributed to the relatively low prices of coal on the inland market. It was also found that it was not desirable to do away with the present system of price control entirely as a certain measure of control was still necessary to safeguard the usuage of coal in certain applications for which there were no other substitutes. It was further concluded that South Africa does not have the vast quantities of coal commonly thought and that measures have to be taken in order to ensure that the country's coal resources are conserved and that optimum use is made of available resources.

While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.

Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.

An event study is an economic tool of analysis that has begun to gain popularity in recent empirical literature. It is a technique that gives a researcher the opportunity to map out the reaction of a firm's stock to an event, usually making use of daily or monthly data. However, up to this point, event study methodology has generally been applied to more traditional phenomena capable of affecting equity value, such as dividend and macroeconomic policy announcements, and there have only been a few exceptions to this. This study looks at what impact the tragic shootings at Lonmin mine in Marikana on August 16th 2012 had on the share prices of platinum mining firms based in South Africa using event study methodology. It makes use of the technique to investigate how the share prices responded to the tragedy over a number of trading days, including the day of the shootings. To be best of our knowledge, no attempt has been made to analyse the impact on share prices using events of this nature. For the investigation, daily returns data was used for each firm. The abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns to each were then calculated and compared with their respective expected returns in order to determine whether investors in the shares of that particular firm reacted positively, negatively or not at all. The evidence found suggests that tragedies of this nature are capable of influencing share prices in the same manner as more traditional economic phenomena. Overall, only one firm was found to have been negatively affected by the shootings in a persistent manner, while the shares of the other firms examined reacted in a manner that was positive overall, but varied according to individual firm characteristics such as size. These finding conformed to our a priori expectations. In addition, the results also confirm the benefits of applying event study methodology to a wide variety of phenomena that fall outside the boundaries usually associated with business.

The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors

This study investigates the existence of the value premium in South Africa’s equity market, and tests extrapolation as a possible explanation for it. The value premium refers to the widely reported superior performance of share price returns of value companies compared to growth companies. The value premium represents an anomaly in mainstream rational finance theory, because it should not persist, unless it could be explained as the result of some composite form of risk. What is highly vexing is the fact that the value premium not only persists in most financial markets over a long period, but that the risk explanation cannot be upheld convincingly. This contributed to the rise of behavioral finance, an approach which introduces psychological factors to provide new explanations for financial phenomena. The behavioral finance explanation for the value premium observation is extrapolation (the tendency to project recent experience too far into the future). This study applies propositions and methods from behavioral finance to investigate the South African equity market. The existence of a value premium in South Africa was investigated by using twenty-nine years’ worth of accounting and share price data. The study employed one- and two-dimensional tests for portfolio formation, and tracked share price returns for up to five years after portfolio formation. The results indicated that a statistically and economically significant value premium existed in South Africa for the period between 1972 and 2001. Extrapolation as a potential explanation for the value premium observation was investigated by applying internationally used methods. Extrapolation was found to provide a robust explanation for the South African value premium.

Sports facilities increasingly feature amongst the most expensive development projects world-wide. One such facility includes world-class stadia. Such facilities tend to commit a considerably large amount of a country's public funds to the project. This public expenditure on new stadia, and the required public taxation, may be economically justified if the benefits from the new stadia outweigh the costs. 15 May 2004 saw South Africa winning the bid to host the FIFA 2010 Soccer World Cup tournament. This mega-event was played in 10 stadia across nine chosen host cities. Five of these stadia were newly constructed, while the other five needed upgrading. Both South Africa's national government and local governments of host cities bore the expenses of the new stadia construction and the upgrading to the existing stadia. This amounted to a total public expenditure of R13.5295 billion on the stadia alone. The Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium on the banks of the North End Lake in Port Elizabeth was amongst the five newly constructed stadia costing R1.7 billion. Many international studies have been conducted to assess the impact of new stadia on the economies of host cities. One particular aspect which has received a lot of attention as far as empirical research is concerned is the impact of stadia on residential property prices (Carlino & Couslon, 2004; Davies, 2005; Tu, 2005; Coates & Humphreys, 2006; Ahlfeldt & Maennig, 2007, 2010; Dehring, Depken & Ward, 2007; Feng & Humphreys, 2008, 2012; Kavetsos, 2010; Ahlfeldt, Maennig & Scholz, 2010; Kiel, Matheson & Sullivan, 2010; Ahlfeldt & Kavetsos, 2011; Coates & Matheson, 2011). The majority of the studies conducted have indicated that the presence of a new stadium in an area has a significantly positive effect on surrounding house values that decays with distance from the facility. As no study has yet been done in South Africa to investigate the impact of the announcement of the construction of new stadia on nearby residential property values, this study examines, by means of the hedonic pricing model, the effect of the announcement to construct the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium on the banks of North End Lake on adjacent residential property values. The study period for this study was 2004 - 2006. This time period captured the stadium announcement effect. The residential properties in North End that were traded at least once during the period 2004 to 2006 made up the target population. According to the South African Property Transfer Guide (SAPTG), a total of 417 property transactions (excluding repeat sales) took place over the study period (2004 - 2006). The 417 transactions were deemed to be the size of the target population and a list of 100 property transactions were used as the sampling frame. As the study period was from 2004 - 2006, it was necessary to adjust the market prices to constant 2006 prices. For this purpose, data from the Port Elizabeth and Uitenhage section of the ABSA house price indices were used so as to eliminate any inflationary effects on the property values over the study period. The results of the study revealed that the stadium has a statistically significant positive effect on adjacent residential properties situated within a 1 200 metres radius from the stadium. The average owner of a residential property in North End would be willing-to-pay between R10 7898 and R11 704.6 to be situated 435 metres closer to the stadium.

A research report submitted to The School of Accountancy, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Commerce in Accounting / The role and importance of a company’s CEO has become an increasingly important topic of research. The executive leadership has an important role to play in defining the strategy of the firm and its ability to compete. The value relevance of the CEO of a company and thus any changes pertaining thereto is understood to be due to developments in information technology and reporting requirements. This characterizes an information environment whereby investors are better equipped at making more informed investment decisions. The current business has become increasingly more competitive and volatile. In response to this, market participants place greater value on the importance of the CEO of the company. The CEO of a company may possess the ability to lever the company above its competitors through the development and implementation of company strategy. This research report assesses how market participants react in response to CEO appointment announcements using a sample of 105 announcements using an event study methodology. The value relevance pertaining hereto can be ascertained by observing the abnormal returns of the company’s share price on the date of the announcement. In furtherance of this assessment, the sample is disaggregated in accordance to event specific, firm-specific and non-event specific factors. Prior research suggests that this analysis facilitates more robust inferences to be made on how market participants react to CEO appointment announcements. In both Africa and South Africa, a strong body of literature is yet to be established on this effect. In general, findings display significant market reactions in response to the CEO change, thus suggesting that market participants perceive the CEO change as a significant event in the life of the firm. On the day of the event strong positive abnormal returns were generating thereby indicating that investors react positively to the appointment of a new CEO. However, the negative cumulative abnormal returns displayed in the periods before and after the event can be interpreted as the contrary. In addressing these conflicting views, the analysis of share performance in relation to firm-specific, event-specific and non-event related factors proves useful. The findings in this part of the section explain that negative returns are due to increased uncertainty over the future of the company, the positive returns on announcement date are found to be strongly associated with the type of successor appointed. These findings further reveal market participants react significantly strongly to a CEO change as seen by high negative cumulative abnormal returns. These findings contextualize how the value attached to CEOs by market participants vary in relation to different conditions. / MT2017