This research realises a type-2 fuzzy probabilistic system for proactive monitoring of uncertain data-intensive seasonal time series in both theoretical and practical implications. In this thesis, a new form of representation, J˜-plane, is proposed for concave and unnormalized type-2 fuzzy events as well as convex and normalized ones, which facilitates bridging the gaps between higher order fuzzy probability realizations and real world problems. Since J˜-plane representation, the investigation of type-2 fuzzy probability theory and the proposal of a type-2 fuzzy probabilistic system become possible. Based on J˜-plane representation, a new fuzzy systemmodel - a type-2 fuzzy probabilistic system is proposed incorporating probabilistic inference with type-2 fuzzy sets. A special case study, a type-2 fuzzy SARIMA system is proposed and experimented in forecasting singleton and uncertain non-singleton bench mark data - Mackey-Glass time series. The results show that the type-2 fuzzy SARIMA system has achieved significant improvements beyond its predecessors - the classical statistical model - SARIMA, type-1 and general type-2 fuzzy logic systems, no matter whether in the singleton or the non-singleton experiments, whereas a SARIMA model cannot forecast non-singleton data at all. The type-2 fuzzy SARIMA system is applied in a real world scenario - WSS CAPS proactive monitoring, and compared with the results of the statistical model SARIMA, type-1 and general type-2 fuzzy logic systems to show that, the type-2 fuzzy SARIMA system can monitor practical uncertain data-intensive seasonal time series proactively and accurately, whereas its predecessors - the statistical model SARIMA, type-1 and general type-2 fuzzy logic systems - cannot deal with this at all. As a series of concepts, algorithms, experiments, practical implements and comparisons prove that, a type-2 fuzzy probabilistic system is viable in practice which realises that type-2 fuzzy systems evolve from rule-based fuzzy systems to the systems incorporating probabilistic inference with type-2 fuzzy sets.

Le contrôle de l'information émise par un système a vu son utilité grandir avec la multiplication des systèmes communicants. Ce contrôle peut être réalisé par exemple pour révéler une information du système, ou au contraire pour en dissimuler une. Le diagnostic notamment cherche à déterminer, grâce à l'observation du système, si une faute a eu lieu au sein de celui-ci. Dans cette thèse, nous établissons des bases formelles à l'analyse des problèmes du diagnostic pour des modèles stochastiques. Nous étudions ensuite ces problèmes dans plusieurs cadres (fini/infini, passif/actif). / The control of the information given by a system has seen increasing importance recently with the multiplication of communicating systems. This control can be used in order to disclose an information of the system, or, oppositely, to hide one. Diagnosis for instance tries to determine from the observation produced by the system whether a fault occurred within it or not. In this PhD, we establish formal foundations to the analysis of the diagnosis problems for stochastic models. We then study these problems in multiple framework (finite/infinite, passive/active).

Parameter variations, noise susceptibility, and increasing energy dissipation of CMOS devices have been recognized as major challenges in circuit and micro-architecture design in the nanometer regime. Among these, parameter variations and noise susceptibility are increasingly causing CMOS devices to behave in an "unreliable" or "probabilistic" manner. To address these challenges, a shift in design paradigm, from current day deterministic designs to "statistical" or "probabilistic" designs is deemed inevitable. Motivated by these considerations, I introduce and define probabilistic Boolean logic, whose logical operators are by definition "correct" with a probability 1/2 <= p <= 1. While most of the laws of conventional Boolean logic can be naturally extended to be valid in the probabilistic case, there are a few significant departures. We also show that computations realized using implicitly probabilistic Boolean operators are more energy efficient than their counterparts which use explicit sources of randomness, in the context of probabilistic Boolean circuits as well as probabilistic models with state, Rabin automata. To demonstrate the utility of implicitly probabilistic elements, we study a family of probabilistic architectures: the probabilistic system-on-a-chip PSOC, based on CMOS devices rendered probabilistic due to noise, referred to as probabilistic CMOS or PCMOS devices. These architectures yield significant improvements, both in the energy consumed as well as in the performance in the context of probabilistic or randomized applications with broad utility. Finally, we extend the consideration of probability of correctness to arithmetic operations, through probabilistic arithmetic. We show that in the probabilistic context, substantial savings in energy over correct arithmetic operations may be achieved. This is the theoretical basis of the energy savings reported in the video decoding and radar processing applications that has been demonstrated in prior work.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-28T18:22:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Wendel Mendes Dantas.pdf: 2248359 bytes, checksum: d5c27ce03f0a60ff11f719e7ba0ce737 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The aim of this study was to identify and classify errors found in Brazilian English learners s written tasks. The questions which guide this research are: Which are the most common errors in COBRA-7_recorte? ; What is the error variation among course levels for learners found in COBRA-7_recorte? and Which course level shows the highest error diversity in COBRA-7_recorte?". The main theoretical underpinning for the research is provided by Corpus Linguistics, an area devoted to the collection and criterious analysis of data collected from texts in electronic formar, and, specifically, by research on learner corpora. the corpora used in this research were the Corpus of Contemporary American English (COCA) (consultation corpus) and a sample of COBRA-7 (COBRA-7_recorte), the study corpus, compiled from the writings of adult learners enrolled in a network of schools which teach English as a foreign language in the state of São Paulo, and which have been produced between 2009 and 2010. The data have been collected from the institution's online server in 2011. Results have shown that the most common errors found in the analysis corpus are: wrong lexical choice, tense and aspect use, use of determiners, and wrong use of questions, negatives or auxiliaries. They have also revealed that pre-intermediate course level has the highest quantity and diversity of errors, probably because it is a level at which learners are exposed to diverse verbal tenses. Finally, this study has also shown that although wrong lexical choice, particularly the replacement of prepositions or particiles by words from the same or other grammatical categories, seem to be a problem for learners, this difficulty tends to decrease along the course, unlike errors of verbal tense and aspect use, which tend to increase / O trabalho tem como objetivo identificar e classificar os erros na escrita de aprendizes brasileiros de inglês. As perguntas que norteiam a pesquisa são: Quais os erros mais comuns no córpus COBRA-7_recorte? ; Qual a variação de erro entre os níveis de curso dos aprendizes no córpus COBRA-7_recorte? e Qual nível de curso apresenta maior diversidade de erros no córpus COBRA-7_recorte? . Esta pesquisa encontrou suporte teórico na Linguística de Córpus, área que se dedica à coleta e análise criteriosa de dados de textos em formato digital, e especificamente nas pesquisas dedicadas a córpus de aprendizes. Os córpora empregados na pesquisa foram o Corpus of Contemporary American English (COCA) (córpus de consulta) e uma amostra do COBRA-7 (córpus de estudo), compilado a partir de redações de aprendizes adultos matriculados em uma rede de escolas de inglês como língua estrangeira do estado de São Paulo, produzidas entre 2009 e 2010. Os dados foram coletados de um servidor online da própria instituição em 2011. Os resultados indicaram que os erros mais comuns encontrados no córpus de análise referem-se a: má escolha lexical, uso de tempo e aspecto verbal, uso de determinantes, e uso inadequado de questões, negações ou auxiliares. Revelaram também que o nível de curso pré-intermediário apresenta as maiores quantidade e diversidade de erros, provavelmente por se tratar de um nível no qual os aprendizes são expostos a tempos verbais diversos. Por fim, mostraram que embora a má escolha lexical, sobretudo a substituição de preposições ou conjunções por outras ou pelas mesmas classes gramaticais constitua um problema para os aprendizes, essa dificuldade diminui ao longo do curso, ao contrário do erro no uso dos tempos e aspecto verbais, que tende a aumentar